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The author:(作者)delv
published in(发表于) 2013/9/12 7:11:27
For Some in Japan Olympics Is a Redemption of National Pride

The 1964 Tokyo Olympics marked a shining moment in Japan's history, an occasion that restored national pride after a humiliating World War II defeat and heralded the country's long, victorious climb toward international economic power.

Now after two decades of a painful economic slump, two years after devastating natural disasters and mounting insecurity about getting eclipsed--and threatened--by a rising China Japan is hoping that the Olympics will bring a period of magic one more time.

'Japan Needs the Power of This Dream Now!' the city of Tokyo proclaimed in its plea-like slogan as it campaigned to host the 2020 summer games, in banners splashed around the city in recent weeks. Its dream came true Sunday when the International Olympic Committee chose the Japanese capital by a decisive margin over its two troubled rivals, Istanbul and Madrid.

Setting aside their usual worries and resignation over shrinking paychecks and pension shortfalls, many in Japan responded with unrestrained displays of joy and excitement. For a nation that has hosted three Olympics in the past - Summer games in 1964, Winter games in 1972 and 1998--the victory was not so much about international recognition of its status or ability. Rather, it is about restoring hope and energy among the nation's weary populace, something Japan needs desperately to tackle its numerous challenges, like mounting government debt, the costly aging of its population, economic and territorial rivalry with China, and festering trouble at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Tokyo's victory 'tells us if we put our hearts together and push ourselves, we can make our dreams come true, ' Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a television interview Sunday. 'For 15 years, Japan has stagnated because of deflation and a recessionary trend. I am convinced we can accelerate growth in the economy if we all work toward the dream and goals we were just granted.'

It was also a significant personal victory for Mr. Abe, who took power late last year promising to restore Japan's long-eroded national pride and optimism, and has become unusually popular for a Japanese prime minister by jolting markets with a big dose of economic stimulus. Mr. Abe was speaking from Buenos Aires where he arrived Saturday to give a final push to Tokyo's bid at a key IOC meeting. Underscoring the importance of the weekend event, the prime minister cut short his attendance at a key global summit meeting last week in Russia and traveled for 23 hours to seal the bid

There, Mr. Abe successfully assured IOC members worried about radiation leaks at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear plant that many believed doomed Japan's chances. 'It has never done and will never do any damage to Tokyo, ' he said in his speech. IOC members credited Mr. Abe personally for helping win the vote. 'The certainty was the critical factor, ' said Craig Reddie, chairman of the IOC's evaluation commission. 'The prime minister dealt with the one big issue, ' Mr. Reddie added.

Tokyo's success gives older Japanese a chance to look back on the glorious experience of hosting the 1964 games and younger ones an opportunity to learn about the period filled with optimism for the future, a luxury that has largely escaped their generation.

As Japan prepared for its earlier Olympics, a series of infrastructure projects were implemented, laying the foundation for the nation's modern economy and rapid economic growth over the following decades. The bullet train connecting Tokyo and Osaka started operating just days before the games held in October 1964, and the core of the Metropolitan Expressway, the highway system in central Tokyo, was newly constructed. Tokyo's public transportation network was given a major boost, while the public broadcasting system was upgraded, encouraging families to purchase color TVs.

Investors and government officials are hopeful that hosting the Olympics will stimulate the economy and provide further momentum to Abenomics, the prime minister's ambitious attempt to revive Japan's economy by using a combination of policy steps dubbed 'three arrows': monetary easing, fiscal spending and deregulation. Some are already calling the 2020 games the 'fourth arrow.' A key ingredient of Abenomics is also psychology--persuading Japanese that better days are ahead, and so encouraging them to spend more, invest more, and take more risks. The Olympic victory, and the years of promotional preparation, help underscore that message.

Still, Tokyo had campaigned on promises of hosting 'compact' and 'deliverable' games, with plans to re-use some of the facilities built for the 1964 games and make the best use of existing infrastructure. So the investments in Olympic-related construction are rather small compared to big spending for the 2008 Beijing games or the 2012 London contest--roughly Y1 trillion ($10 billion) or just 0.2% of Japan's economy last year. In addition, Tokyo estimates the Olympics could create ripple effects in the economy of Y3 trillion for the country, including Y1.6 trillion for the city.

Some economists say effects on the economy could be bigger, if the prospects of the 2020 games could convince policy makers to take on more ambitious infrastructure projects, such as much-needed improvement to the Metropolitan Expressway, built in time for the 1964 games. Kyodo News reported estimates that 8.5 million tourists could visit for the games in 2020, helping amplify an industry Japan has targeted for growth amid the decline of manufacturing. Stocks seen as gaining from the Olympics--notably construction companies--have outpaced the market in recent weeks

More important, economists say, is the boost the games could give to Japanese people's sentiment, something Mr. Abe could use as he begins to battle Japan's grave fiscal woes even as he pursues policies for growth. Within a few weeks, Mr. Abe must make a decision on whether to raise the nation's broad sales tax, an unpopular step that could undermine the modest growth Abenomics has so far generated. 'It is very obvious we'll see the national sentiment turn positive. That will make it easier for the government to discuss tax reform and austerity, ' said Masaaki Yamaguchi, an equity market strategies for Nomura Securities.

For some, hosting of the Olympics is redemption of national pride after years of witnessing its economic prowess erode. Japan has also felt growing heat from neighbors like China and South Korea, as they experienced economic success and pressed more demands on Japan to solve territorial disputes and disagreements over Japan's wartime conduct.
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1964年东京奥运会是日本历史上的一个闪耀时刻，这场盛会使日本在二战战败后重拾民族自豪感，此后日本踏上了成功迈向国际经济强国的漫长之路。

如今，日本曾经历了长达20年的痛苦经济滑坡，两年前还曾发生毁灭性的自然灾害，此外，日本日益担心中国的崛起将使其被超越并受到威胁。在这种情况下，日本希望奥运会能再次带来一段时间的奇迹。

东京在申办2020年夏季奥运会时打出了“现在，日本需要这个梦想的力量”标语。近几周，东京大街小巷都挂起了这个像在请求一样的标语。周日，日本的这个梦想变为现实，当天日本战胜了伊斯坦布尔和马德里这两大对手，被国际奥林匹克委员会(International Olympic Committee)选为2020年奥运会的主办地。

不顾平时对薪资缩水和退休金不足的担忧和无奈，许多日本人毫无顾忌的表现出高兴和兴奋的心情。对这个过去已经举办过三届奥运会（1964年的夏季奥运会、1972和1998年的冬季奥运会）的国家来说，这次胜利的意义与其地位或者能力获得国际认可的关系不大，真正的意义在于这将令消沉的日本民众重新燃起希望和重拾活力，这是日本迫切需要的，有助于其解决目前面临的诸多挑战。这些挑战包括：政府债台高筑，高昂的老龄化成本，与中国的经济和领土对抗，福岛核电站不断加剧的问题。

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)周日在一个电视采访中说，东京的胜利告诉我们，如果我们齐心协力，推动我们自己向前，我们是能够实现梦想的。他说，15年来，由于面临通货紧缩和衰退趋势，日本经济一直处在停滞状态中，我相信，如果我们都朝着刚刚被赋予的梦想和目标努力，我们能够加快经济增长步伐。

这也是安倍晋三个人的一次重大胜利。他在去年底上任时承诺将恢复日本长期受到打击的民族自豪感和乐观情绪，他大举实施的经济刺激措施还让他成为了异乎寻常受到市场欢迎的首相。安倍晋三是在布宜诺斯艾利斯发表的讲话，他在上周六抵达这里，为东京在国际奥委会一个重要会议上的申奥活动做最后的努力。安倍晋三缩短了上周在俄罗斯参加一个重要全球峰会的行程，经过23个小时的旅途行程抵达这里以确保东京能申奥成功，这凸显出上周末这一申奥活动的重要性。

安倍在这次大会上成功消除了国际奥委会成员对于被海啸损毁的福岛核电站放射物泄露问题的担忧，此前许多人认为这一问题令日本取胜的希望变得渺茫。安倍晋三在发言中说，这个问题从未并且永远不会对东京产生破坏性影响。国际奥委会成员认为安倍晋三的个人努力对东京在此次投票中获胜起到了帮助。国际奥委会评估委员会主席雷迪(Craig Reddie)说，消除这个担忧是一个关键因素，日本首相解决了这个大问题。

东京的此次成功令日本年长者有机会回顾日本举办1964年奥运会时的荣耀经历，也给予日本年轻人在一段充满乐观情绪的时期中成长的机会，这种机会在他们这一代难得一遇。

日本在筹备此前的奥运会时，建设了一系列基础设施项目，为之后几十年日本的现代经济和快速经济增长奠定了基础。东京至大阪的子弹头列车在1964年10月奥运会开幕前几天刚刚开通，东京市中心的高速公路系统首都高速公路(Metropolitan Expressway)的核心也是新建成的。东京的公共交通网络得到了大幅提升，公共广播系统升级，家庭纷纷购买彩电。

投资者和政府官员们希望，举办奥运会将刺激经济增长，为“安倍经济学”提供更多的动力。“安倍经济学”是首相安倍晋三复兴日本经济的宏大尝试，具体方法是利用被称为“三支箭”的政策举措组合：货币宽松、财政支出和放宽监管。一些人已经开始称2020年奥运会是“第四支箭”。“安倍经济学”的一个要素还是心理方面的——让日本人相信未来会更好，进而鼓励他们更多支出、更多投资，并更多冒险。申奥成功以及多年的宣传筹备工作有助于突出这一讯息。

尽管如此，东京申奥时曾承诺举办一届“紧凑”、“能兑现”的奥运会，计划再利用为1964年奥运会修建的部分设施，并充分利用现有基础设施。因此，与2008年北京奥运会或2012年伦敦奥运会的巨额支出相比，东京奥运会的相关建设投资规模相当小，约为1万亿日元（合100亿美元），仅相当于日本去年经济总量的约0.2%。此外，东京估计，2020年奥运会有望给日本经济带来3万亿日元的涟漪效应，包括给东京带来1.6万亿日元的贡献。

一些经济学家说，如果2020年奥运会的前景能够说服决策者开展更多宏大的基础设施项目，比如对首都高速公路进行急需的升级改造，则奥运会对日本经济的影响可能会更大。首都高速公路是为1964年奥运会而建的。日本共同社(Kyodo News)报道说，估计2020年奥运会将可能吸引850万游客，帮助推动旅游业的发展。在制造业下滑之际，日本寄希望于旅游业实现增长。一些被认为将受奥运会推动上涨的股票近几周表现强于大盘，建筑公司股票表现尤其抢眼。

经济学家们说，更重要的是奥运会可能给日本民众的信心带来提振，在安倍晋三实施促进经济增长的政策并奋力应对日本严重的财政困局之际，他可能利用这种效应。几周内，安倍晋三必须就是否上调日本普遍的消费税作出决定。这一举措不得人心，可能有损“安倍经济学”目前为止创造的小幅经济增长。野村证券(Nomura Securities)股市策略师Masaaki Yamaguchi说，很显然，我们将看到日本民众的情绪转向积极。这将使政府更容易讨论税改和紧缩措施。

对一些人来说，举办奥运会是在多年目睹日本经济实力减弱之后，民族自豪感的回归。日本还感觉到来自中国和韩国等邻国日益加剧的压力，这两个国家经历了经济上的成功，并向日本更多地施压，要求解决领土争端和在日本战时行为问题上存在的分歧。

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