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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2013/10/26 11:02:37 Experts said the growth rate of urban and rural residents ’ income target or fail
Original title: multiplication of 2020 revenue targets difficult to accomplish needed changes in development patterns
Our reporter
Intern Zhang Yaping Beijing
"Urban and rural residents ' per capita income growth which could fail. ”
On October 23, Deputy Director of the China Center for international economic exchanges Zheng xinli, in the current economic talk up the fact that the monthly income of the gravity of the situation, said.
His fears are justified.
According to the 18 national arrangements, by 2020, to achieve gross domestic product (GDP) and for urban and rural residents per capita income more than double by 2010. Click here to see, between now and 2020 the average annual GDP and per capita disposable income for urban and rural residents, needs to grow around 7.3%. The "Twelve-Five" plan, determine an average annual GDP growth rate is 7%, the "Twelve-Five" period with an average annual income of urban and rural residents is higher than 7%.
In fact, 2013 revenue grew grim.
National Statistical Office figures show that in the first three quarters, urban residents ' per capita disposable income of 20,169 per cent nominal growth of 9.5% and 6.8% allowing for price factors in real growth, GDP7.7% growth in the first three quarters of the country, there is a gap, and urban residents ' income at that rate may not achieve the goal of doubling within 10 years thereafter.
Zheng xinli believes that GDP growth more quickly than income since reform and opening up in the past. Now to achieve 10 years income of urban and rural residents doubled 7.3% average annual income growth to ensure, the corresponding GDP average annual growth rate needed to more than 8%.
But under the current calculation of various institutions and national ministries, resources and environment under the condition of supporting the economic potential of China's economic growth has dropped to 7% per cent and 7% per cent. Taking into account the countries had "Twelve-Five" economic targets adjusted to 7%, some experts believe that strengthening the reform, increase the proportion of residents ' income in the income distribution has become increasingly important.
Li Wenpu, Deputy Director of Economics, Xiamen University pointed out that past economy is mainly driven by investment, export-driven, profit-oriented extensive economic development, which inhibited growth in income. To build and improve the social security system in the future to enhance the public as elements in the primary distribution area receives a fair share of revenues. Basic implementation in primary distribution area resident sector, the business sector, government departments and rationalizing the income distribution ratio.
18 income doubling plan difficult to accomplish
According to the figures released by the national statistical office, actual growth so far this year the average per capita disposable income of urban residents was 7%, below the economic growth rate, does not meet the doubling of annual 7.3% party may 10 years revenue growth. This makes 18 large income and GDP multiplier of the Decade Plan could fail.
In this regard, Zheng xinli, pointed out that in 1978 through 2012, a total of 35 years is, with an average annual GDP growth rate was 9.9%, average annual growth rate of per capita income of urban and rural residents is 7.4%.
9.9% economic growth, 7.4% growth in per capita income of urban and rural residents. Than 2.5%.
Next you want to change the way of development, income to lean to the residents. 18 's "double-double" goals to achieve, "urban-rural residents ' per capita income double for ten years, the average annual growth rate of at least 7.3%, economic growth, at least in 8%. "Zheng xinli said.
However, the 8% economy of the future is very difficult.
2012 national economic growth is 7.6%, which was dropped year since reform and opening up (1998) minimum. 2013 annual economic growth in the first three quarters of 7.7%. Most believe that future potential growth of the Chinese economy, the speed of which is provided under the conditions of environmental resources and energy, has fallen.
National Information Centre for economic forecasting Director Fan Jianping believes that this year's economic growth is likely at about 7.6%. 7%-9% may be a reasonable economic growth for many years in the future. Between, like this year's economic growth rate for 7.4%-cent running smoothly, this is China's new normal.
Reform of the income distribution should speed up
Some expert judgement, is expected to achieve targets for 2013, economic 7.5%, but urban residents ' disposable income of UN-Habitat does not reach the level of 7.5% per cent, are not synchronized. December central economic work Conference will be convened this year, determine the economic goal of 2014 2014 goals how to determine the key. When GDP target may be adjusted downwards to around 7%, residents ' income was still set at 7%, controversial.
Cai Zhizhou, Deputy Director of China Economics Research Center of Beijing University more optimistic.
In his view, is a special case of this year. Residents ' income is likely to speed up in times of economic slowdown, such as 2012 is real. So the residents to achieve accelerated growth in income, the key is to give up too much on the concept of GDP.
China will soon become a high income nation, residents ' income growth will accelerate. Simply speeding up GDP, would not necessarily raise the residents ' income, for example, at present many industries now a surplus industry to accelerate the investment, no sustainability. So the key is to improve people's livelihood, the adjustment of economic structure. While addressing income equity issues.
This data supports 2012 growth of the year, down from 8%, but urban and rural residents ' income growth was higher than 9%. 2012 annual per capita net income of rural residents in real terms 10.7%; per capita disposable income of urban residents grew by 9.6%.
Zheng xinli, also believes that next need reform to release the economic growth potential, such as reform of the income distribution system can release the potential of consumer demand, unlocking the employment potential of taxation reform and so on, so you can focus on supporting the national economy at the rate of about 8% until 2020 or even for a longer time.
Li Wenpu, Deputy Director of Economics, Xiamen University believes that, the next step, the Government should work with public administration and public services, public focus on products to build unified component market of various market players compete on an equal footing. Establishing and perfecting the social security system is very important, as owner of the elements which can help residents in primary distribution area receives a fair share of revenues, which is conducive to release residents of potential consumer demand, to expand the consumer provides the necessary guarantees.
原标题：2020年收入倍增目标恐难完成 发展模式亟需改变
本报记者 定军
实习生 张亚平 北京报道
“城乡居民人均收入增长速度这个目标可能落空。”
10月23日，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长郑新立，在当期的经济每月谈说起目前的收入严峻形势时说。
他的担心是有道理的。
根据十八大报告安排，到2020年，实现国内生产总值(GDP)和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番。按此看，从现在到2020年年均GDP和城乡居民人均可支配收入，需要增长7.3%左右。此前的“十二五”规划，确定年均GDP增速是7%，“十二五”期间年均城乡居民收入则高于7%。
实际上，2013年收入增长情况严峻。
国家统计局数字显示，前三季度，全国城镇居民人均可支配收入20169元，同比名义增长9.5%，扣除价格因素实际增长6.8%，这与全国前三季度GDP7.7%增速，存在差距，而且城镇居民收入按此速度，可能此后10年内达不到翻番的目标。
郑新立认为，过去改革开放以来GDP增速比居民收入要快。现在要实现城乡居民10年收入翻番，年均7.3%的收入增速要保证，则对应的GDP年均增速需要达到8%以上。
不过根据目前各大机构以及国家部委测算，在资源环境等条件下支撑的中国经济潜在经济增速已经下降到7%-9%甚至7%-8%。考虑到国家已经将“十二五”经济目标调整到7%，一些专家认为，加大改革，增加居民收入在收入分配的比重日趋重要。
厦门大学经济学院副院长李文溥指出，过去的经济主要是以实现投资驱动、出口拉动、利润导向的粗放型经济发展，这抑制了居民收入的增长。未来要建好健全社会保障体系，提高居民作为要素在初次分配领域获得合理的收入份额。在初次分配领域基本实现居民部门、企业部门、政府部门的收入分配比例合理化。
十八大收入倍增计划难完成
根据国家统计局公布的数字，今年以来城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增速一直在7%以下，低于经济增速，未达到年均7.3%方可实现10年收入翻番的增速。这使得十八大提出的收入和GDP十年倍增的计划可能落空。
对此，郑新立指出， 1978年到2012年共35年的数字是，年均GDP增长速度是9.9%，城乡居民人均收入年均增长速度是7.4%。
这样用9.9%的经济增长速度，才保了7.4%的城乡居民人均收入的增长速度。前者比后者快了2.5个百分点。
未来要转变发展方式，收入要向居民倾斜。十八大提出的“双倍增”的目标要做到，“城乡居民人均收入十年翻一番，年均增长速度至少7.3%，经济增长速度至少在8%以上。”郑新立说。
不过，未来要把经济达到8%的难度很大。
2012年全国经济增速为7.6%，这是改革开放以来的除去非常年份(比如1998年)的最低值。2013年前三季度经济增速也只有7.7%。大部分机构认为，未来中国经济的潜在增速，即在环境资源能源条件下提供的速度，已经下降。
国家信息中心经济预测部主任范剑平认为，今年经济增速可能在7.6%左右。今后多年7%-9%可能是合理的经济增速。而像今年经济增速为7.4%-7.9%之间平稳运行，这是中国经济的新常态。
收入分配改革须加快
一些专家判断，2013年经济7.5%的目标有望实现，但是城镇居民人居可支配收入并未达到7.5%以上的水平，未实现同步。今年12月中央将召开经济工作会议，确定2014年的经济工作目标，2014年的目标如何确定成为关键。在GDP目标可能下调到7%左右时，居民收入是否还定为7%，争议很大。
北大中国经济核算研究中心副主任蔡志洲比较乐观。
他认为，今年的情况比较特殊。在经济放慢时居民收入是有可能加快的，比如2012年就是如此。所以要实现居民收入加快增长，关键是要放弃过分注重GDP的观念。
在中国即将成为高等收入国家时，居民收入增长将加快。而单纯加快GDP，不一定能提升居民收入，比如目前现在很多产业属于过剩行业，加快这方面投资，没有可持续性。所以重点还是要改善民生，调整经济结构。同时要解决收入公平问题。
这个说法有数据支持，2012年中国经济增速为7.6%，低于8%，但是城乡居民收入增速均高于9%。其中2012年全年农村居民人均纯收入实际增长10.7%；城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长9.6%。
郑新立也认为，下一步需要通过改革来释放经济增长的潜力，比如收入分配制度改革可以释放消费需求的潜力，税制改革释放就业需求的潜力等，这样可以着力支持国民经济以8%左右的速度保持到2020年乃至更长的时间。
厦门大学经济学院副院长李文溥认为，下一步，政府应该以公共管理与提供公共服务、公共产品为重心，建设各类市场主体平等竞争的统一的要素市场。其中建立健全社会保障体系非常重要，这可以有助于居民作为要素的所有者在初次分配领域获得合理的收入份额，这有利于释放居民的潜在消费需求，为扩大居民消费提供必要的保障。
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