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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2013/10/30 11:12:00 Newspaper said Japan issues test China strategic will of strategic patience
Wang yiwei,
Recently, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told the Wall Street Journal in an interview, and when visiting the GSDF said Japan cannot tolerate China's attempts to change the status quo by force, if China chooses this path, it cannot be peaceful rise. Japan should play a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific Economic and security fields, and counterbalance to China.
Japan why impatience to flaunt the exercise of collective self-defense, openly compete to become helmsman of China? A Diaoyu Islands larger pattern here convert background.
Post-war, the traditional Asia-Pacific order is the United States as the core of the "vergence" structure, that is, to United States-led and the United States and Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and other countries of the bilateral security alliance as the core, including military forward deployment of US troops in East Asia, and to shoot the "access" mechanism of regional security order.
Today, the United States willingness to provide the ability to secure public goods, declined. United States Government's huge debt burden, the rapid emergence of China, Japan and United States Asia-Pacific allies are asking United States success in protecting their own. Corresponding to this, Japan United States Asia-Pacific allies to rely on China's economy growing, leading to economic, security of China by the United States, "Asian paradox". China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy after, Japan agitation mentality is getting out of hand. Around the Diaoyu Islands issue, touchstone.
From history to leave Asia into Europe, to take the United States into Asia? Japan authorities to have a terrible tangle. As a piece of pattern changes, under the leadership of Abe, Japan, bring fold test to the international community:
A heavy testing, is Japan on many United States protection are less secure. In Asia since the end of the most profound changes in the patterns, changes in the order since Meiji Restoration in East Asia the most intense cases, followed by United States, ensures the extent Japan safe? Japan is becoming less common end. United States high profile return to Asia-Pacific, could truly reassure Japan and other Asia-Pacific allies, remains a question mark.
Double test is the United States in a revival in China's bottom line. United States using Japan to test whether China's ability and determination to break through the second island chain of the consequences. In Sino-American relations during the new powers, the Sino-Japanese relationship is the reality check. United States consider the Diaoyu Islands incident, China's overreaction. United States China Lu Bobin had written, United States tolerance bottom line for China's rise is a breakthrough in China's second island chain, the United States out of the Western Pacific, the last United States form a divide-and-conquer situation in the Pacific region. Not only the United States Asia-Pacific Alliance system will break down, then to Hawaii under the threat of exposure to China, to the detriment of United States core interests.
For many years, United States strategy for China test is a combination of cross-strait relations as a test strip, now have allowed Japan challenged China to test. Abe, the Government's increasingly provocative, just daring to say it concerns for many years--Japan for the United States to shoulder against the Chinese, blocking the protagonist of China spanning the first and second Island chains. Japan repeatedly strategy toward China temptations, spoken over the years as United States strategic pawn of the helplessness and loss.
Today China's Japan problem is not ex post facto, is the test of China strategic will and strategic patience. Relations with Japan must be on the maintenance and make good considerations under the important period of strategic opportunities for development in China, both are subject to the diplomatic situation around, and serve the overall situation of Sino-US relations. China's long-term goal is the history from the giants of Asia, upgrade for the leading countries of the world. Japan is a great examination of the rise of China can become adversity, can also become a booster, but by no means the final inspection. Japan's provocative ads, contradiction as a driving force, turning challenges into opportunities, rise of the achievements of Chinese orthodoxy.
In this way, avoid China to the world, "picking on" Japan and the United States, "so you think you can" impression towards neighbouring countries, United States and the international community's understanding and support, become an urgent task in front of China's public diplomacy. With Japan over a long duration justified struggle, profitability, but to strive for positional win, which also relates to United States extent to which they accept the new power relationships between China and America, China's diplomacy globally.
(The writer is senior fellow at the Institute of Chahar, a Renmin University Professor)
王义桅
近日，日本首相安倍晋三接受《华尔街日报》采访和视察陆上自卫队时称，日本无法容忍中国试图通过武力改变现状，如中国选择这条道路，就无法和平崛起。日本应在亚太经济、安全领域发挥领导作用，抗衡中国。
日本为何焦躁地标榜行使集体自卫权，明目张胆地要成为抗衡中国的舵手？这里有钓鱼岛之外更大的格局转换背景。
战后以来，传统亚太秩序是以美国为核心的“辐辏”结构，即以美国主导和美与日、韩、澳、菲、泰等国的双边安全联盟为核心，包括美军在东亚的军事前沿部署和远投力量“准入”机制在内的地区安全秩序。
如今，美国提供安全公共产品的能力、意愿在下降。美国政府巨额债务负担、中国快速崛起，让日本等美国亚太盟国纷纷质疑美国最终能否保护自己。与此相对应，日本等美国的亚太盟友对中国的经济依赖日益提升，导致经济靠中国、安全靠美国的“亚洲悖论”。中国超越日本成为世界第二大经济体后，日本的焦躁心态就一发不可收拾。围绕钓鱼岛问题的中日较量，只是试金石。
从历史上的脱亚入欧，走向脱美入亚？日本当局纠结得厉害。作为格局变动的棋子，安倍领导下的日本，给国际社会带来两重检验：
一重检验，就是日本在检验美国的保护能有多牢靠。在亚洲格局出现战后以来最深刻变化、东亚秩序出现明治维新以来最激烈变动情形下，跟着美国走，多大程度能确保日本安全？日本心理越来越没底。美国高调重返亚太，能否真正安抚日本等亚太盟国，依然是个问号。
二重检验，就是美国在检验中国复兴的底线。美国也在利用日本测试中国是否具备突破第二岛链的能力与决心及后果。在中美新型大国关系过程中，中日关系是现实检验。美国认为对于钓鱼岛事件，中国过度反应。美国的中国通陆伯彬曾撰文称，美国对中国崛起容忍底线是中国突破第二岛链，将美国势力赶出西太平洋，最后与美国形成太平洋地区的东西分治局面。这样不仅使美国的亚太盟友体系会瓦解，接下来就将夏威夷暴露在中国的威胁下，损害美国的核心利益。
多年来，美国对中国的战略试探，是靠两岸关系作为试纸的，如今越来越默许日本挑战中国来测试。近来安倍政府的日益挑衅，只是大胆说出来多年的忧虑——日本为美国担负起防范中国，阻拦中国跨越第一、二岛链的主角。日本一再对华战略试探，说出了多年来作为美国战略卒子的无奈与彷徨。
今天中国面临的日本问题，已非既往，考验的是中国的战略意志与战略耐心。对日关系必须放在维护和用好我国发展的重要战略机遇期下考量，既服从于周边外交大局，也服务于中美关系大局。中国长远目标是从历史上的亚洲大国，升级为世界型领导国家。日本是中国崛起的巨大检验，可以成为拦路石，也可以成为助推器，但绝非最终检验。应把日本的挑衅作为历练，化矛盾为动力，化挑战为机遇，成就中华崛起之道统。
这样，避免给世人中国“欺负”日本、与美国“争霸”的印象，争取周边国家、美国及国际社会的理解、支持，成为摆在中国公共外交面前的紧迫课题。与日本进行较长期有理、有利、有节的斗争，只能争取巧胜，这也关乎美国多大程度上接受中美新型大国关系，关系中国的外交全局。
(作者系察哈尔学会高级研究员、中国人民大学教授)
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