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The author:(作者)左published in(发表于) 2013/11/12 0:05:39 Dean of Tsinghua University said that China’s rise is unstoppable United States also have domestic problems
Exclusive interview with Tsinghua University Academy of contemporary international relations, world peace Forum Secretary General Yan Xuetong:
From composure to bring about China's rise is unstoppable
2023 world would see the two superpowers
United States wiretapping gave China a good lesson: when we were after the powerful must not be like the United States to monitor worldwide. Monitoring the consequences of what you've been around the world with enemies around the world. --Yan Xue Tong
Within ten years China will really become a world superpower? Where surrounding situation in China? What China's foreign policy is being adjusted? Continue to adhere to the non-aligned principles will help China's rise?
With all these problems, the China economic weekly has an exclusive interview with the Tsinghua University Academy of contemporary international relations, world peace Forum Secretary General Yan Xue Tong, asking him for our interpreting situation in China as well as the future of the world.
"History is created by the people, but this does not mean that humans have the ability to arbitrarily changed history. Historical development has some inertia, did not create a strong prior to the inertial forces of history, will follow the trajectory of history. "Yan Xuetong, over the next decade, the inertia of history in favour of China's rise. He even boldly predicted that China will become a superpower by 2023, the world will usher Sino-American polar pattern.
World polarization inevitable that China must be one or the other
"The international landscape changes with the changes in the country's comprehensive strength, and political strength is based on the State of the country's comprehensive strength, and core of political power is a leader's ability to implement reforms. "Yan Xuetong said, he was able to make optimistic forecasts to rise of China over the next decade, after China and 18 of the party's leaders to fight corruption, reform and maintenance of national sovereignty relating to the new deal.
"I made that prediction on the assumption that China's reform efforts over the next decade will be larger than all of the other great powers. "Yan Xuetong said. ”
Yan Xuetong in he of book history of inertia under a book in the forecast: future ten years, Yuan against dollars currency will liters to 1:5; 2023 United States of GDP will for 19 trillion dollars, will China of GDP according to current of currency conversion will for 17 trillion dollars, by will of currency calculation will over United States; 2023 Yuan on other currency of influence will reached dollars influence of 50% even more high, Yuan, and dollars and euro may constitute tripod of potential; 2023, China will have a manned space station, serving at least 3 aircraft carrier fleet (possibly 5 built aircraft carrier), 4~5 range 8,000-kilometer missiles carrying strategic nuclear submarines, the deployment of forces of fifth-generation fighters (j-20 fighter- -31 stealth fighter).
The China economic weekly: why do you have such an optimistic forecast on China's future?
Yan Xuetong: some people say that my prediction was bolder in their eyes within a decade, China is not likely to become a superpower. In fact, many people hold such views, which not only constitute the majority of Internet users, even some in the foreign service veteran who agree that China could not. Yet awareness of the status of foreign citizens and politicians to China are not, however, there was general agreement that China will soon become a superpower.
According to my observation, many criticisms, I predict the irresponsible people who do not know what I expect logic is, they just don't agree with me to predict the outcome of emotionally, and they don't want to see China become a superpower. Superpower country refers to power several times greater than other powers, it was a big result of the relative strength of the established historical period.
Over the next decade, in addition to Chinese, I do not see any other country's comprehensive national strength can be close to the United States. If you can't find a third country in ten years it will become a superpower, inevitably polarize the world, diametrically opposite pole in China.
The China economic weekly: there are a lot of people think that, accumulating contradictions within Chinese society that will affect the future development of China, what do you think about this point?
Yan Xuetong: rising powers in history, all success is rise with serious domestic problems. Many people in United States model for success, think and the United States will be able to emerge as a superpower. However, these people ignore the United States the superpower and there is a serious problem in the country.
Cold war period, the United States has serious racial violence conflict; after the cold war, United States as the world's sole superpower, which is also a serious problem in the country. 17 days this year, the Obama administration has been forced to shut down the Federal Government, if not serious internal contradictions, the Federal Government would have been forced to close?
Domestic issue for China's emergence as a superpower must have had negative effects, can't but this does not mean that the negative impact of China's emergence as a superpower. The next ten years, China's comprehensive national strength gap will continue to shrink, while United States domestic issue no less than China, it may be more serious than China.
The China economic weekly: United States the extent to which can slow or stop on China's peaceful rise? How do you see the future of China-US relations? Do you think the United States and Japan will jointly implement a number of measures against China?
Yan Xuetong: only in the United States, related United States has been arguing for some time whether the relative decline, the United States Federal Government closed for 17 days, so that more people believe United States of relative decline. United States is definitely trying to obstruct the process of bridging the capability gap with, but this would only reduce the capabilities gap affects the speed, can't stop China's gap with United States strength gap trends.
Over the next decade, spindle decided to Sino-US relations is competition, but the core content of this kind of competition with the United States and the Soviet Union that year's competition are different. This is why President XI Jinping put forward new relations should be established between China and America. The new type of relations among great powers, although different in US-Soviet relations, but not a friendly relationship, I refer to this as "false friends". Specifically, new relations were better than the current Sino-Japanese relations, but is far better than the Sino-Russian relations, and better relations between China and the European powers.
We can be friendly based on the current relations between China and other major powers are divided into different levels: 1. the friendly Sino-Russia relations is the relationship between; 2. normal relations, Sino-German relations and Sino-French relations, Sino-Indian relations, Sino-British relations; 3. new relations Sino-US relations; 4. confrontation is the Sino-Japanese relations.
America and Japan are allies, is normal for both sides join hands to deal with China, the US Congress controlled Japan, does not allow Japan to go to war to confront China.
The China economic weekly: recently Germany has asked the United States to explain "bugging" incident, do you think the United States Wiretap Act United States affect?
Yan Xuetong: the United States will not change the world listening, unless it does not have that capability. This event allows United States international image damaged, make it just damaged, but also a strategic relationship with traditional allies.
United States wiretapping to China provides a good lesson: when we were after the powerful must not be like the United States to monitor worldwide. Monitoring the aftermath of the world is the world you're an enemy.
Bring about a diplomatic deal
As China's power grows, highlights the importance of neighbors ' foreign. How to build a more stable diplomatic networks around, China's diplomacy faces an important task.
This year, the new Central Government leadership around pushing diplomacy, well into October was an intense series of visit to Southeast Asia: October 2, President, XI Jinping, to Indonesia, and Malaysia for a State visit and attend in Indonesia of the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation (APEC) informal meeting of leaders of the 21st.
October 9, Premier Li keqiang attended the 16th China-ASEAN in Brunei (10+1), 16th ASEAN leaders meeting with Japan and South Korea (10+3) leaders meeting and the eighth session of the East Asia Summit, and Brunei, Thailand, and Viet Nam on an official visit.
On a peripheral diplomacy Symposium held October 24, XI Jinping, clearly stressed that to bring about a more advanced peripheral diplomacy, striving for a favorable surrounding environment for our development so that our development more beneficial for neighboring countries to achieve common development.
Yan Xuetong, China's foreign policy is undergoing fundamental changes in direction.
"Bide your time bring about, this is a significant change in Chinese foreign policy, or even a qualitative change. "Yan Xuetong blunt," the past is to bide your time, because I'm weak you are strong, our weakness to the international community, showing all the things we do not intervene. Now bring about the relationship is going to show neighboring countries we are ' I'm the strong protecting the weak ', this is the fundamental nature of these changes. ”
The China economic weekly: Chinese foreign policy from the original bide your time bring about this may be interpreted as a change from passive to active diplomatic policy shift?
Yan Xuetong: we cannot simply be interpreted as a diplomatic strategy that change becomes more active, it is actually a directional change. We used almost all international issues are not involved, only economic cooperation with other countries, not on foreign policy issues, and now both economic and security issues, and even security issues higher priority.
Originally taken by our nation's foreign policy is: the United States first priority, and relations between the neighboring countries to make way for Sino-US relations. Relations with neighboring countries in the future will be our national priority of its diplomatic relations, Sino-US relations be subject to around. Therefore, this change in foreign policy is not a simple change from passive to active, which is a fundamental change in the character of foreign policy.
Also, I want to stress is, the XI around the diplomatic work of the Forum, the Chairman proposed to promote diplomatic work on reform and innovation, yet little attention has been paid to the "reform" of the term. You know, back in 1978, made at the third plenary session of the reform was to conduct reforms in all fields, except the diplomatic. Reform of us foreign policy at the end of October, called diplomacy held a belated "third plenary session".
The China economic weekly: new Central collective leadership attaches great importance to China's peripheral diplomacy, how do you think the overall situation in research of China's peripheral environment? China and Japan will affect the relationship of Chinese perimeter security?
Yan Xuetong: Sino-Japanese relations now formed a relationship of confrontation, and Japan in our neighbouring economies of scale is one of the largest countries, so a lot of people said to judge China's surrounding environment is deteriorating, I think it would not be accurate. Japan is China's largest economies around, but Japan only affects our relationship to our relationship with the countries of East Asia.
Now we and Russia, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and the relationship between Central Asia, South Asia, South-East Asian countries are improving. However, we would also like to see surrounding facts are now in the Philippines and Japan fighting relationship with us, and this fight is more serious, and cannot be solved in the short term.
We speak at the surrounding area from a large range of situations and improve relations in a mainstream, but the degree of confrontation, and Japan, and the Philippines is indeed growing.
The China economic weekly: intensive visits Chinese leaders in South-East Asia described as "concentrated punch of ASEAN diplomacy." President XI Jinping were ahead when Indonesia offered to build a "China-ASEAN community of destiny". What do you think about our relationship with ASEAN? ASEAN will become the top priority of Chinese diplomacy, please?
Yan Xuetong: I do not agree with the ASEAN is China's diplomacy around the top priority to this argument. Top priority this statement gives the impression that solved this problem as long as it solves everything. We now surrounding her foreign policy, to a large extent depend on us and Russia's bilateral relations, which we have a secure rear areas in the North and West, are we and Russia are not the top priority?
We can say that, in a relatively stable around the West, North, and East of Japan under the situation does not improve in the short term, Southeast Asia is a main direction of our peripheral diplomacy now.
Meaning of common destiny is far more profound than the economic community, this means that national security and the overall economic development of the community. I think we just have to keep President XI Jinping, the speech direction, until the end of next year, we and the development of Southeast Asian countries will be very productive.
The China economic weekly: whether you think China should also continue to insist on a policy of nonalignment?
Yan Xuetong: 1982 we started implementing a policy of nonalignment is actually a weak implementation of the policy, China today if you do not abandon the policy of nonalignment, only create greater international security problems.
A lot of people think we've got a policy of nonalignment, and others formed a zero-sum relationship can be avoided, which is actually a wrong concept. Non-aligned precisely because China, neighboring countries not to provide security, so we will send neighboring countries fear us, leading to a zero-sum relationship.
United States in a State of material strength of slow-growing, but it still has allies in the world's most populous country, it at least 42 different types of military allies. In contrast, the non-aligned policy so that China does not have an ally in the strict sense. Lack of allies has become China faced major constraints in improving international environment.
To avoid being isolated by the international community, China would need to adjust the policy of nonalignment, Allied strategy could help to increase the number of true strategic partner China. By 2023, China will build 20 or so on a global scale of allies or from a strategic partnership. This is far fewer than the United States military ally, but it is a system of stable strategic alliance to take shape.
At present, has the potential Chinese allies around the country is Russia, and Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Laos and Cambodia. These countries are faced with United States strategic pressure, so we need to make use of China to enhance their security.
The inertia of history: China and the world for the next decade
Author: Yan Xue Tong
Publisher: CITIC Publishing House
Publication date: July 2013
(Edit: SN094)November 12, 2013 China economic weekly(清华院长称中国崛起势不可挡 美国也有国内问题|中国|美国|两极化_新闻资讯
独家专访清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、世界和平论坛秘书长阎学通：
从韬光养晦到奋发有为，中国崛起势不可挡
2023年世界将出现中美两个超级大国
美国窃听事件给中国提供了一个很好的经验教训：当我们强大以后，绝不能像美国那样去监控全世界。监控全世界所带来的后果就是你在跟全世界为敌。——阎学通
中国真的会在十年之内成为世界超级大国吗？中国的周边局势又将走向何方？中国的外交策略正在发生哪些调整？继续坚持不结盟原则会帮助中国崛起吗？
带着这一连串的问题，《中国经济周刊》日前独家专访了清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、世界和平论坛秘书长阎学通，请他为我们解读中国乃至世界的未来局势。
“历史是由人创造的，但这并不意味着人有能力任意改变历史。历史的发展具有一定惯性，在人没有创造出强于历史惯性的力量之前，历史将沿着既有的轨道发展。”在阎学通看来，未来十年，历史的惯性有利于中国的崛起。他甚至大胆预测中国到2023年将会成为超级大国，世界将迎来中美两极格局。
世界两极化不可避免，中国必居其一
“国际格局是随着大国综合实力的变化而变化的，大国综合实力的基础是国家的政治实力，而政治实力的核心则是领导者实施改革的能力。”阎学通坦言，他之所以能够对未来十年中国崛起做出乐观的预测，与党的十八大后中国领导人在反腐、改革和维护国家主权方面的新政有关。
“我做出这个预测的前提是今后十年中国的改革力度将大于所有其他大国。”阎学通解释说。”
阎学通在他的新著《历史的惯性》一书中预测：未来十年，人民币兑美元汇率将升至1:5；2023年美国的GDP将为19万亿美元，届时中国的GDP按照当前的汇率换算将为17万亿美元，按届时的汇率计算将超过美国；2023年人民币对其他货币的影响力将达到美元影响力的50%甚至更高水平，人民币、美元和欧元可能构成三足鼎立之势；2023年，中国将拥有载人的太空工作站、至少3个服役的航母舰队(有可能建成5艘航母)、4~5艘携带射程8000千米导弹的战略核潜艇、部署部队的第五代战斗机(歼—20和歼—31隐形战斗机)。
《中国经济周刊》：您为什么会对中国的未来有如此乐观的预测？
阎学通：有些人说我的预测很大胆，在他们看来中国十年内根本没有可能成为超级大国。实际上，持这种看法的人很多，这其中不仅有占多数的网民，连一些从事外交工作的资深人士也认为中国不可能。然而外国民众和政界人士对中国地位的认识却相反，他们普遍认为中国将很快成为一个超级大国。
根据我的观察，许多批评我预测不靠谱的人并不知道我预测的逻辑是什么，他们只是在感情上不同意我的预测结果，他们不愿意看到中国成为超级大国。超级大国是指国力大于其他大国几倍的国家，这是一个既定历史时期大国实力对比的结果。
今后十年，除中国之外，我看不出还有哪个国家的综合国力可以接近美国。如果找不到第三个国家在十年内能成为超级大国，世界就不可避免地两极化，而两极化中的一极就是中国。
《中国经济周刊》：现在有很多人认为，中国社会内部日益积累的矛盾将影响中国的未来发展，您如何看待这样的观点？
阎学通：历史上所有成功崛起的大国都是带着严重的国内问题崛起的。很多人以美国为成功样板，认为和美国一样就能崛起为超级大国。然而，这些人忽视了美国这个超级大国也存在严重的国内问题。
冷战时期，美国有严重的种族暴力冲突；冷战后，美国成为世界唯一的超级大国，其国内的问题也十分严重。今年奥巴马政府竟然被迫关闭联邦政府17天，如果国内矛盾不严重，联邦政府能被迫关闭吗？
国内问题对于中国崛起为超级大国肯定有负面影响，但这种负面影响并不意味着中国就不能崛起成为超级大国。今后十年，中美综合国力差距仍将不断缩小，而美国的国内问题不会比中国少，很可能比中国还严重。
《中国经济周刊》：美国能在多大程度上减缓或阻止中国的和平崛起？您如何看待未来的中美关系？您认为美日两国是否会联合实施一些对中国不利的措施？
阎学通：仅在美国，有关美国是否相对衰落的争论就已经有一段时间了，这次美国联邦政府关闭17天，使更多人相信美国的相对衰落。美国肯定是在尽力阻挠我国缩小与之实力差距的进程，但是这只会对缩小中美实力差距的速度有影响，阻止不了中国缩小与美国实力差距的大趋势。
今后十年，决定中美关系的主轴是竞争，但这种竞争的内容核心与美国和苏联当年的竞争不同。这也是为什么习近平主席提出中美应建立新型大国关系。这种新型大国关系虽然不同于美苏关系，但也不是什么友好关系，我将这种关系称为“假朋友关系”。具体讲，新型大国关系好于现在的中日关系，但远不如中俄关系，也不如中国与欧洲大国的关系。
我们可依据友好程度将目前中国与其他大国的关系分为不同等级：1.友好关系是中俄关系；2.普通关系中有中德关系、中法关系、中印关系、中英关系；3.新型大国关系是中美关系；4.对抗关系是中日关系。
美日是同盟，双方联手对付中国是正常的，但是美国会控制日本，不允许日本以发动战争的方式与中国对抗。
《中国经济周刊》：近来德国已要求美国解释“窃听门”事件，您认为美国的窃听举动会对美国产生哪些影响？
阎学通：美国不会改变对世界的监听，除非它没有了这种能力。这一事件使美国的国际形象受损，使其正义性受损，而且影响了与传统盟友的战略关系。
美国窃听事件给了中国提供了一个很好的经验教训：当我们强大以后，绝不能像美国那样去监控全世界。监控全世界所带来的后果就是你在跟全世界为敌。
奋发有为的外交新政
随着中国实力的不断增强，周边外交的重要性日渐凸显。如何构建一个更加稳定的周边外交网络，成为中国外交面临的重要课题。
今年以来，新一届中央政府领导集体大力推进周边外交，进入10月后更是对东南亚进行了一系列密集访问：10月2日至8日，国家主席习近平对印度尼西亚、马来西亚进行国事访问，并出席在印尼举行的亚太经济合作组织(APEC)第二十一次领导人非正式会议。
10月9日至15日，国务院总理李克强出席在文莱举行的第16次中国—东盟(10+1)领导人会议、第16次东盟与中日韩(10+3)领导人会议和第八届东亚峰会，并对文莱、泰国、越南进行正式访问。
在10月24日至25日召开的周边外交工作座谈会上，习近平明确强调，要更加奋发有为地推进周边外交，为我国发展争取良好的周边环境，使我国发展更多惠及周边国家，实现共同发展。
在阎学通看来，中国的外交政策正在发生着方向性的根本变化。
“从韬光养晦变成奋发有为，这是中国外交政策的一个重大变化，甚至可以说是一个质的变化。”阎学通直言，“过去之所以要韬光养晦，是因为我弱你强，我们向国际社会示弱，显示我们对所有的事情不介入。而如今的奋发有为则是要向周边国家显示我们的关系是‘我强你弱’，这是根本性质上的变化。”
《中国经济周刊》：中国的外交政策从原来的韬光养晦变成如今的奋发有为，这可以理解成是一种变被动为主动的外交策略转变吗？
阎学通：我们不能简单地把这种变化理解成是外交策略变得更加主动，它实际上是一种方向性的变化。过去我们几乎对所有国际问题的态度都是不介入，只和其他国家搞经济合作，不谈外交问题，而现在则是经济和安全问题并重，甚至安全问题还要更优先。
原来我们国家所采取的外交策略是：以美国为重中之重，和周边国家的关系要让位于中美关系。而今后与周边国家的关系将成为我们国家外交关系的重中之重，中美关系要服从于周边关系。所以说，这种外交策略的变化不是简单的变被动为主动，它是外交政策根本性质的改变。
另外我想强调的是，这次习近平主席在周边外交工作座谈会上提出要推进外交工作改革创新，现在还很少有人注意到“改革创新”这个词。要知道当初在1978年十一届三中全会上提出来的改革，是在除外交之外的所有领域都要进行改革。所以我们把10月底这次外交政策的改革，称作是外交领域开了一次迟到的“十一届三中全会”。
《中国经济周刊》：新一届中央领导集体非常重视我国的周边外交，您认为该如何研判中国周边环境的整体局势？目前中国和日本的这种关系是否会影响到中国周边环境的安全？
阎学通：现在中日关系形成了一种对抗关系，而日本又是我们在邻国中经济规模最大的一个国家，所以很多人以此作判断说中国周边环境日益恶化，我认为这个说法并不准确。日本的确是我国周边地区的最大经济国，但是日本跟我们的关系仅仅会影响到我们跟东亚各国的关系。
我们现在和俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、印度、孟加拉国以及中亚、南亚、东南亚国家的关系正在改善。但是，我们也要看到，现在周边环境的事实是菲律宾和日本与我们是对抗关系，而且这种对抗是比较严重的，在短期内不能解决。
我们现在周边环境的局势从大的范围上讲，改善关系是主流，但从对抗程度上来讲，日本和菲律宾的问题确实是日益严重了。
《中国经济周刊》：有人把中国国家领导人密集访问东南亚形容为“集中发力东盟外交”。习近平主席更是在出访印尼时提出要建设“中国－东盟命运共同体”。您如何看待我们和东盟的关系？东盟会成为中国外交的重中之重吗？
阎学通：我不同意东盟是中国周边外交的重中之重这样的说法。重中之重这种说法给人的感觉是，只要把这个问题解决了就把一切都解决了。我们现在的周边外交在很大程度上依靠我们和俄罗斯的双边关系，这使得我们在北部和西部有了一个安全的大后方，难道我们和俄罗斯的关系就不是重中之重了吗？
我们可以说，在我国周边西部、北部相对稳定，和东边日本的关系在短期内不能改善的情况下，东南亚是我们现在周边外交的一个主攻方向。
命运共同体的涵义远比经济共同体更加深刻，这个共同体意味着国家安全和国家经济全面发展。我认为我们只要坚持习近平主席那次讲话的方向，到明年年底，我们和东南亚国家的发展将会非常有成效。
《中国经济周刊》：您认为中国是否还应该继续坚持不结盟政策？
阎学通：我们从1982年开始执行的不结盟政策实际上是一个弱国执行的政策，今天的中国如果不放弃不结盟政策，只会给我们自己制造更大的国际安全困难。
很多人误以为我们搞不结盟政策，可以避免和其他国家形成零和关系，这实际上是一个错误的概念。正是因为中国不结盟，不给周边国家提供安全保障，所以才会让周边国家恐惧我们，导致形成了零和关系。
美国虽然处于物质实力增长缓慢的状态，但它仍是世界上拥有盟友最多的国家，它至少有42个不同类型的军事盟友。相比之下，不结盟政策使中国没有一个严格意义上的盟友。缺乏盟友已经成为中国在改善国际环境中面临的最主要难题。
为防止被国际社会孤立，中国需要对不结盟政策进行调整，结盟的策略可以帮助中国增加真实战略伙伴的数量。到2023年，中国将可能在全球范围内建立起20个左右的盟友或全天候的战略伙伴关系。这虽然远少于美国的军事盟友，但已经是一个初具规模的稳定的战略同盟体系。
目前，具有成为中国盟友潜在可能的周边国家是俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、巴基斯坦、缅甸、斯里兰卡、孟加拉、老挝、柬埔寨。这些国家都面临着美国的战略压力，因此需要借助中国增强自己的安全保障。
《历史的惯性：未来十年的中国与世界》
作者：阎学通
出版社：中信出版社
出版时间：2013年7月
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