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The author:(作者)左published in(发表于) 2013/11/12 0:14:37 Reasons of decline in purchasing power of the currency
"Its really sorry people. "CCTV English channel in an interview, members of the public expressed dissatisfaction with price growth. This discontent was reflected in the last several years of monetary and economic structural problems of growth.
100 Yuan to buy rice with 8 years ago 57 dollars to purchase
"Its really sorry that the Chinese", that there is one example cited by the media widely watched: Aunt Lee went to the market to buy rice, discovered a variety of rice in 2013 rose to 3.3 pounds, she recalled that in 2005 the price of rice was 1.9 Yuan a kilo.
According to this calculation, the rice 8 per cent average price increase, if it all to buy rice, devaluation of the currency. Per cent in 2013, purchasing power and RMB per cent in 2005.
But the market wasn't the only rice, other commodity prices falling, cars, digital products, communication services. CPI (consumer price index) is a comprehensive index.
Official data show that since 2005, the CPI rose by 5% in some years, almost two years after the fall, CPI rise in 2012 is 2.6%.
"Super fat" under currency inflation
Meanwhile, the relationship between money supply and inflation concerns by investors and scholars.
In 2005 China's broad money stock (M2) is less than 30 trillion yuan in April 2013, this figure will be well over 100 trillion yuan mark. At the end of September this year, the M2 balance has reached 107.74 trillion yuan, an increase in the course of the 3 times or more.
Beginning in 2010, the currency on the domestic market more and more criticism of hyper-inflation.
Economist Zhong Wei pointed out that if the time the currency "super" is not a thing in recent years, in fact, has been in existence since the late 80.
Zhou qiren served as member of the Central Bank's monetary policy Committee also believes that currency "Super fat" are not small in scale.
Central Bank Governor Zhou xiaochuan in speeches and interviews, in the belief that China's currency and nominal GDP growth to match or slightly higher, which is the result of China's market-oriented transition period, China's M2 and high ratios of GDP, because the savings rate had a higher proportion of indirect financing reasons.
But recent Prime Minister Li keqiang's speech showed the Government's cautious attitude towards monetary stimulus.
Prime Minister Li keqiang speech published in the daily worker: "as far as the currency, our broad M2 measure of money supply balances at the end of March, more than 100 trillion yuan, already twice times the GDP. In other words, the ' pool ' in the currency has many, more tickets could lead to inflation. As we all know, inflation will not interfere with or disrupt the market and will give significant side effects and pressure on the people's lives and even panic. ”
The Renminbi "banished within the outer rise"
Domestic purchasing power of the currency devaluation, while the Yuan's exchange rate is rising fast, and appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar over the past 8 years 34%.
"Banished within the outer rise" since 2005, peculiar to the Yuan's "landscape". According to the purchasing power parity theory, currency appreciation, while domestic prices should fall, but not so in China.
Compared with the residents to buy vegetables, some export-oriented small enterprises deeper feelings on this point.
One was processed in Shenzhen Lee says of the Christmas tree, thought he had found a good business, but a stronger currency and increased competition were quickly eliminated profits for the industry.
Many economists believe that the past foreign-oriented economy and distortions in factor prices, means one of rapid growth in the money.
Adhering to the balance of payments theory economists argue that trade imbalances and inflows of foreign investment to promote causes of changes in the exchange rate.
The trade imbalance and the surplus under the capital account, leading China's foreign exchange reserves first. In absorbing foreign exchange by the Central Bank at the same time, and residents formed a liabilities to domestic firms, the Central Bank needs to issue Yuan-denominated hedging, this results in currency increased size in the.
Central Bank can grasp the rhythm of dispensing currency? Zhou xiaochuan, considered to be because foreign currency reserves will not grow indefinitely with no restrictions. But it seems to the outside world in the past, "transfer" is too loose. The Beijing News reporter Wu Min
(Original title: the decline in purchasing power of the currency causes)
“人民币真的对不起中国人啊。”在央视外语频道的一次采访中，市民这样表达对物价增速的不满。这种不满正折射出过去若干年中的货币和经济增长结构问题。
100元买米与8年前57元购买力相当
在“人民币真的对不起中国人”之前，有一条媒体引述的例子也受到广泛关注：李大妈去市场上买大米，发现一个品种的大米2013年涨到了3.3元一斤，她记得2005年这种大米的价格是1.9元一斤。
按此计算，这种大米8年间平均价格涨幅为9.2%，如果人民币全部用来买大米，货币在贬值。2013年的100元，购买力和2005年的57元相当。
但市场上不仅仅只有大米，另一些商品的价格在下跌，比如汽车、数码产品、通讯服务。CPI(居民消费价格指数)是一个综合的衡量指数。
官方数据显示，2005年以来，部分年份出现过CPI增幅超过5%的情况，近两年回落之后，2012年的CPI涨幅为2.6%。
“超发”货币下的通胀
与此同时，货币供应量与通胀的关系受到投资者和学者的关注。
2005年我国广义货币存量(M2)尚不到30万亿元，2013年4月这一数字就迈过100万亿元大关。今年9月末，M2余额已达到107.74万亿元，其间增幅在3倍以上。
2010年开始，国内市场上关于货币超发带来通胀的批评声音越来越多。
经济学家钟伟曾指出，如果将时间拉长，货币“超发”并不是最近几年的事情，实际上从上世纪80年代末以来一直存在。
曾任央行货币政策委员会委员的周其仁也认为，货币“超发”的规模不小。
央行行长周小川则在演讲和采访中认为，中国的货币发行与GDP名义增速相匹配或者略高一些，这是中国市场化转轨时期的结果，中国M2与GDP的比值偏高，是因储蓄率高一级间接融资比重过大的原因。
但近期李克强总理的讲话显示出政府对货币刺激的谨慎态度。
刊登在工人日报上的李克强总理讲话提及：“就货币来说，我们的广义货币供应量M2的余额3月末超过了100万亿元，已经是GDP的两倍了。换句话说，就是‘池子’里的货币已经很多了，再多发票子就有可能导致通货膨胀。大家都知道，恶性通货膨胀，不仅干扰或者说破坏市场，而且会给人民生活带来巨大的副作用和压力，甚至造成人心惶惶。”
人民币“外升内贬”
在人民币的国内购买力贬值的同时，人民币的汇率则快速攀升，过去8年人民币对美元的升值幅度超过34%。
“外升内贬”成为2005年以来人民币的一道独特“风景”。根据购买力平价理论，本币升值的同时，国内物价水平应同时下跌，但在中国并非如此。
与买菜的居民相比，一些外向型小企业对这一点的感触更深。
一名曾在深圳加工圣诞树的李某说，他曾以为找到了一个好行业，但货币升值和竞争加剧迅速消灭了这个行业的利润。
不少经济学家认为，过去的外向型经济和扭曲的要素价格，恰是货币快速增长的原因之一。
秉承国际收支学说的经济学家认为，贸易不平衡和外资流入是推动汇率变化的原因。
贸易不平衡和资本项目下的顺差，导致中国外汇储备全球第一。央行在吸纳外汇的同时，要向国内企业和居民形成负债，央行需要发行人民币来进行对冲，这导致货币规模在增大。
央行能不能把握调剂货币的节奏？周小川认为是可以的，因为外汇储备不会无限制的增长下去。但在外界看来，过去的“调剂”过于宽松。新京报记者 吴敏
(原标题：人民币购买力下降探因)
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