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The author:(作者)左published in(发表于) 2013/11/12 0:14:47 Reports says third plenum reform and speed up the real estate bubble burst
The Beijing News (reporter Li Lei) according to China International Capital Corporation Limited report released on November 11, launched a reform blueprint may be the third plenary will have three effects, including accelerated real estate bubble burst. Reform the more successful the real estate bubble burst earlier.
Reforms to accelerate the real estate bubble bursts
Plenary session is the start of a new round of comprehensive reform, indicating the direction for the next 5-10 years of China's economic reform.
The CICC report noted that published the third plenary programme could cover the financial system, financial sector reform, land, factor prices, conversion of Government function, income distribution, social management of household registration system.
Fiscal reform is focused on lower taxes in the proportion of turnover tax, strengthening of factor income and property taxes with a view to reversing the current income gap.
CICC Chief Economist Wensheng Peng said the plenary session launched a reform blueprint can have effects in three ways: increasing the role of the market in the allocation of resources, promoting medium-and long-term supply capacity; reducing income disparities, enhance consumption rate and lower savings rate; speed up the real estate bubble burst.
He said the short term, especially concerned about the deepening of the anti-corruption mechanism and inhibition of investment expansion.
CICC believes that reforms will speed up the real estate bubble burst. Last more than 10 years real estate prices are rapidly rising economic and social foundations of local government land monopolies, tax distortions, financial repression, social security and imbalance of the widening income gap and the rise in the savings rate, as well as the expansion of monetary credit to support investment growth model.
The restructuring is aimed at these distortions, so judge the advancement of the reform deepen economic base will remove a rapid rise in the price of the past more than 10 years.
Lowered growth targets for next year or to 7%
CICC think reform looks good but short pain for a long time. Reducing government intervention in the economy, breaking the monopoly of State-owned enterprises as well as to increase and other measures conducive to stimulating private investment sector. The other hand, the reform mechanism to curb short-term aggregate demand growth.
The CICC said in 2014 was a year of reform, reform is to eliminate the impure from the pure, short pull on aggregate demand is not necessarily positive, structural improvement is the biggest excitement. Benefit from the economic and policy factors itself, becomes the biggest drivers of growth of consumption will exceed investment. Is expected in 2014, the economic growth target will be lowered to 7%.
Mr Peng said, for the control of real estate-the shadow banking system--Trinity financial risks local financing platforms, prudential supervision and some tightening of monetary policy, market interest rates high to curb investment growth. The inertia thanks to the expansion of domestic demand and the global recovery helped exports, will be raised from 7.4% per cent GDP growth forecast for next year.
(Original title: report says reform or accelerate the real estate bubble burst)
新京报讯 (记者李蕾)中国国际金融有限公司11月11日发布报告称，三中全会推出的改革蓝图可能会带来三个方面的影响，其中包括加速房地产泡沫的破裂。改革越成功，房地产泡沫破裂的时间越早。
改革加速房地产泡沫破裂
三中全会是新一轮全面改革的起点，将为未来5-10年的中国经济改革标明方向。
中金公司的报告指出，三中全会公布的改革方案可能会涵盖财政体系、金融部门、土地、要素价格、政府职能转换、收入分配、户籍等社会管理制度领域。
其中财税改革的重点在于降低税收中的流转税比重，加强对要素收入和财产的征税，以期扭转目前收入差距大的现象。
中金公司首席经济学家彭文生表示，三中全会推出的改革蓝图可能会带来三个方面的影响：增加市场配置资源的作用，促进中长期供给能力；缩小收入差距，提升消费率，降低储蓄率；加速房地产泡沫的破裂。
他称，短期看，尤其需要关注反腐的深化和机制化抑制投资扩张。
中金公司认为，改革将加快房地产泡沫破裂。过去10多年房地产价格快速上升的经济社会基础是地方政府土地供应垄断，财税扭曲，金融压抑，社会保障不平衡带来的收入差距扩大和储蓄率上升，以及货币信用支持投资扩张的增长模式。
此次结构改革正是针对这些扭曲因素，所以判断改革的推进深化将消除过去10多年房价快速上涨的经济基础。
明年增长目标或下调至7%
中金公司认为改革利好长期但有短痛。一方面减少政府干预经济、打破国企垄断以及营改增等措施有利于刺激私人投资部门。另一方面，改革也存在抑制短期总需求增长的机制。
中金公司称，2014年是改革的一年，改革是激浊扬清的过程，短期对总需求不一定是正面的拉动，结构改善是最大的看点。受益于经济自身和政策因素，消费将超越投资成为增长的最大驱动力。预计2014年经济增长目标将下调到7%。
彭文生表示，为控制房地产——影子银行——地方融资平台三位一体的金融风险，审慎监管和货币政策将趋紧，市场利率居高，抑制投资增长。由于内需扩张的惯性和全球复苏对出口的帮助，将明年GDP增长预测从7.4%上调至7.6%。
(原标题：报告称改革或加速房地产泡沫破裂)
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