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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2013/11/14 2:58:14 Administrative order difficult to drag Beijing prices climbed up _ Sina news
Geng Ling
Beijing's tightening of administrative price controls, to prevent House prices continued to climb up.
Recently, the Beijing municipal construction Committee organized a major sale of real estate held in Beijing "the retreat". According to media reports. Beijing construction Committee required including, the price of real estate will not be approved, more than 40,000 yuan/square meter building will not be approved this year advance certificate etc. It is worth mentioning that, the request also reflects a particularly strong targeted, to prevent "walking", for example, some developers take bound hardcover prices, also clearly does not allow, and this approach is by default some previous evidence of the property a year ago, also asked the new forensics housing prices cannot exceed 10%.
But the 21st century business Herald reporter learned that, the Beijing municipal construction Committee this provision is difficult to implement in practice. An open Developer Marketing Director told reporters that the results they are waiting for pre-sale permit final approval, if the Beijing municipal construction Committee finally approved the pre-sale price gap between women and their actual prices, they will be bundled with other approaches to advance, such as bundles, such as rebuilding or binding Air Purifier sales.
This person said, because they opened late last year on the same property, opening price is relatively low. Since this is the few remaining products company in Beijing, had purchased land prices are not cheap, it is difficult for them in accordance with the Beijing municipal construction Committee approved prices.
Another property that is bundled with refined decoration sales executives told reporters they have no plans to lift the binding decoration. "Construction is not recommended bundle decoration sales, did not say definitely not. ”
In addition, because the Beijing municipal construction Committee continued price caps, led many developers to adopt delayed the opening deal.
According to yahao Agency statistics show, November 4-November 10, Beijing only 1 item into the residential market, namely Tongzhou district run maple neck, providing a total of 136 residential products, pre-sale permit covers an area of 12,000 square meters, compared to last week (October 28 to November 3) each, 70.6%. As at statistics until November 10, only 5 market sales in early November, was opening projects over a month earlier this year a minimum of one month, unchanged from the Spring Festival period in January.
Yahao institutions Deputy General Manager Gao Shan analysis think, November gradually entered a years in the of sales off-season, usually year room enterprises also will reduced pushed disc volume, 2011, and 2012 of November, Beijing also only respectively has 27 a, and 21 a project opened, this year November pushed disc volume so less, is in live construction Committee end of control prices of 6 article new gauge pressure Xia, developers or active, or passive of delay opened. 6 new rules in the "unit price housing projects are no longer issued more than 40,000 yuan before the end of the pre-sale permit" will lead directly to collective absence end high-end projects in new markets. In addition, "regardless of the auction, home, price items do not permit", "not allowed to bundle hardcover sales" requirement, intended to jam project before "the curve of rising prices" implementation path. Many items actually costs more than live construction Committee approved prices, major real estate enterprises have annual sales target, would increase their profit levels as the main tasks of the current context, partly resulting in reduced supply of items at the end.
Gao Shan believes that 40,000 sale ban, led directly to the Villa market end of the 2013 season, the last two months of supply and demand are subject to greater restrictions. Low-end project has completed the sales programme or in parts, or anticipation of change initiative to postpone the market sales, so there are few market before the end of the project, and even appears again "zero supply." By the end of this two-month trading volume remains in the doldrums, may even be a new annual lows.
It is understood, had expected the November market, Tai Wo longhu double Dragon original Beijing, Garden, landscape Park, West Park and other high-end villas houses could face difficult evidence into the bare. Judging from the settlement, though these premium class Villa is not the backbone of market transactions, but as can be seen from the data, since the beginning of the second half, price of more than 40,000 yuan Villa class significant upward trend in percentage of products sold and October price of more than 40,000 yuan villas were sold at 15% per cent, and in the first half of the month, this deal is below 10% per cent.
Judging from the Beijing administrative regulation and administrative regulation of the construction Committee, merely will artificially reduce the statistical data, but did not produce any substantial impact on prices, as the price continues to tighten, developers in disguise other bundles to achieve the purpose prices ultimately will be heavier burden on buyers to put down. And it runs counter to the intent of the regulation.
The industry believes that, judging from the 18 plenary session message, administrative regulation may not be long lasting. Sang Yu-feng, Director of the Centre for development of the market of the 21st century real estate group said, although the plenary resolution on land reform and property tax reform does not make specific comments, but this file is programmatic, global and specific reform programmes depends on the Central leading group for deepening the reform for deployment. The mobilization of this meeting is to deepen the reform of the General Assembly, including economic reform, reform of the housing system will be comprehensively pushed forward, we should be confident about this.
Hongwei ZHANG, Director of China Strategic Advisory Research Department believes that as far as the real estate market, after the third plenary session through "increased supply changing supply and demand, taxation means to change the structure of market demand" market means will be more prominent, the decisive role of the market in resource allocation will become more pronounced. Market instruments, economic instruments can play its dominant influence on the market when the restriction of administrative means will be gradually withdrawing from the real estate market.
耿玲
北京不断收紧的行政化限价措施，难以真正阻止房价继续攀涨。
近期，北京市住建委组织了北京各大在售楼盘召开了“吹风会”。据相关媒体报道称。北京市住建委要求包括，涨价楼盘一律不批、高于4万元/平米的楼盘今年一律不批预售证等内容。值得一提的是，有关要求还体现出特别强的针对性，杜绝打“擦边球”行为，例如有的开发商借捆绑精装涨价，也明确不允许，而之前这一做法是被默认的；有的楼盘上次取证还在一年前，也被要求新取证房源涨价不能超过10%。
但21世纪经济报道记者了解到，北京市住建委这一规定实际上很难得到执行。某个即将开盘的开发商营销负责人告诉记者，他们正在等待预售证最终审批结果，如果北京市住建委最终批准的预售价格与他们实际申请价格有差距，他们就将采取捆绑其他方式进行预售，比如捆绑工程改造或者捆绑空气净化器销售等。
该人士称，由于他们所在的楼盘上一期开盘是去年年底，开盘价格相对较低。由于这是他们公司在北京所剩不多的产品，当初购入的地价也不便宜，他们很难按照北京市住建委审批的价格销售。
另一个正在进行捆绑精装修销售的楼盘负责人告诉记者，他们也没有解除捆绑精装修的打算。“建委只是建议不要捆绑精装修出售，并没有说一定不可以。”
此外，由于北京市住建委持续加强限价，导致不少开发商开始采纳延后开盘的方式周旋。
根据亚豪机构统计数据显示，11月4日-11月10日，北京商品住宅市场仅有1个项目入市，即通州区的润枫领尚，共提供住宅产品136套，预售许可面积1.2万平方米，相比上周(10月28日—11月3日)分别减少70.6%、74.3%。而截至统计到11月10日，11月上旬仅有5个项目入市销售，是今年各月同期开盘项目最低的一个月，与春节所在的1月同期持平。
亚豪机构副总经理高姗分析认为，11月逐步进入一年中的销售淡季，通常年份房企也会减少推盘量，2011年、2012年的11月，北京也仅分别有27个、21个项目开盘，今年11月推盘量这么少，是在住建委年底控制房价的6条新规压力下，开发商或主动，或被动的延迟开盘。6条新规中“年底前单价4万元以上住宅项目不再发放预售许可证”将直接导致中高端项目集体缺席岁末新盘市场。此外，“无论期房、现房，涨价项目均不批证”、“不允许捆绑精装销售”的要求，则意在堵塞之前各项目“曲线涨价”的实施路径。很多项目现在的实际售价要高于住建委审批价格，在各大主流房企已经完成全年销售任务，将提升利润水平作为当前的主要任务的背景下，一定程度上会造成年末刚需项目供应量的减少。
高姗认为，4万元预售禁令，将直接导致了别墅市场2013销售季的终结，最后两个月供需均将受到较大限制。部分中低端项目或因已完成销售计划，或因预期的改变主动推迟入市销售，因此年底前入市项目将寥寥无几，甚至将再次出现“零供应”现象。受此年末两个月的成交量将持续低迷，甚至可能再创年度新低。
据了解，原本预计11月入市的龙湖双珑原著、泰禾北京院子、山水文园西园等高端别墅房源可能遭遇难以取证入市的窘状。从成交情况来看，虽然这些高端类别墅产品并不是市场成交的主力，但从数据中可以看出，自下半年开始，单价4万元以上的别墅类产品成交占比呈显著上升趋势，10月份单价4万元以上的别墅成交占比为15%，而在上半年各月当中，这一成交占比都在10%以下。
从北京目前行政手段调控方式来看，住建委的行政调控，仅仅会人为降低统计数据，但并未对房价产生实质的影响，而由于限价持续收紧，开发商变相采取其他捆绑方式以达到涨价目的，最终仍将加重买房人的首付负担。而这与调控的本意背道而驰。
业内人士认为，从十八届三中全会传递出的信息来看，行政化调控方式可能不会长期持续。21世纪不动产集团市场发展中心总监桑豫峰表示，虽然三中全会决议并未对土地制度改革和房产税改革提出具体的意见，但这个文件是纲领性、全局性的，具体改革方案有赖于中央深化改革领导小组作出部署。这次会议是深化改革的动员大会，包括房地产制度改革在内的经济体制改革，将会全面有序推进，对此我们应该有信心。
同策咨询研究部总监张宏伟认为，就房地产市场而言，三中全会之后，通过“增加供应改变供求关系，税费手段改变市场需求结构”等市场化的调控手段会更加突出，市场在资源配置中的决定性作用将更加明显。待市场手段、经济手段可以发挥其对市场主导影响作用之时，以限购为主的行政化手段将逐渐退出房地产市场。
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