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The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/17 8:55:43 Expert interpretation of a separate second child four effects
Xinhuanet, Beijing, November 17 (reporter Lunaud)-"two kids alone" policy launched, will affect China's economic and social development, will bring to millions of what kind of change? 17th in population terms to learn 18 on the spirit of the third plenary session of the Forum, experts and scholars to brainstorm around these issues.
The working-age population increased
Capital economic and trade University labor economics said the school's Vice Dean Tong Yufen, let go of "two kids alone" policy over the next 15 years, total labour force size would be 28 million more a year by 2050, difference of 3% reduction in labour force.
She said that if fertility policy remains unchanged, effective labour supply to 8.11 million per year; implementing "two kids alone" policy, about 7.6 million per year. This will greatly reduce our future labour supply and demand imbalances. In particular Inflexion of the significant decline in the scale of China's labor force will appear in 2025-2030, currently adjusting birth policy just in time.
Aging reduces
State family planning Commission, said Wang Peian, Deputy Director of health, of which we are one of the fastest aging countries in the world. 2012 the population over the age of 14.3%, in 2030 will amount to about 25% and is expected to be around 2050, aging population had reached a peak of about 440 million, accounting for one-third of the total population. Adjusting the family planning policy, it will help improve the age structure of the population.
Nankai University said yuanxin, a Professor of the Institute of population and development, the implementation of "two children alone" policy, by 2030 to levels from five dropped to 24.1% by 2050 from five dropped to 34.1%, from 2100 to drop to 34.3%.
Birth sex for money
Continuing high sex ratio at birth in China, since 1994, has been more than 115,2004 years up to 121.2, has declined in 2009, 2012 up to 117.7.
Original new said that in the natural state, is the only means to achieve gender balance in birth. Implementation of the "two kids alone" policy may not be able to return to normal sex ratio at birth, but be sure to bring it down.
Family development capability
Shrinking family sizes, from 1982 and 4.43 per cent in 2010 to 3.1. Proportion of elderly families increased. One-child families more than 150 million households in China, with some "lost single family" special hardship families. Family has weakened traditional functions such as marriage, maternity, old-age, anti-risk ability decreases.
Executive Vice President, Renmin University of China population society social and demographic Zhai Zhenwu, Dean said, "two kids alone" policy-termination of the "4-2-1" family structure, conducive to the economic and social functions of families, will help improve the family's ability to resist risks, also contribute to children's education.
新华网北京11月17日电(记者吕诺)“单独两孩”政策的启动实施，将对我国经济社会发展产生哪些影响，将给千家万户带来怎样的改变？17日在人口学界学习十八届三中全会精神座谈会上，与会专家学者围绕这些问题各抒己见。
劳动年龄人口增加
首都经贸大学劳动经济学院副院长童玉芬说，放开“单独两孩”政策下，未来15年后，劳动力总规模将每年多出2800万，到2050年劳动力规模减少幅度将相差3个百分点。
她说，如果生育政策不变，我国每年减少有效劳动力供给811万；实行“单独两孩”政策后，每年减少760万左右。这将大大缓解我国未来劳动力的供需失衡。尤其是我国劳动力规模大幅度下降的拐点将出现在2025至2030年前后，当前调整生育政策正是时候。
老龄化程度降低
国家卫生计生委副主任王培安说，我国是世界上人口老龄化速度最快的国家之一。2012年60岁以上人口占总人口14.3%，2030年将达25%左右，预计到2050年左右，老年人口达到4.4亿左右的峰值，约占总人口的1／3。调整生育政策，有利于改善人口年龄结构。
南开大学人口与发展研究所教授原新说，实施“单独两孩”政策，到2030年将使老龄化水平从24.1%下降到23.8%，到2050年从34.1%下降到32.8%，到2100年从39.6%下降到34.3%。
出生人口性别趋衡
我国出生人口性别比持续偏高，1994年以来一直高于115，2004年高达121.2，2009年以来有所下降，2012年仍高达117.7。
原新说，在自然生育状态下，多生是达到出生人口性别平衡的唯一手段。实施“单独两孩”政策未必能使出生人口性别比恢复正常，但一定能使其下降。
家庭发展能力提升
我国家庭规模不断缩减，从1982年的4.43人降至2010年的3.10人。独居老人家庭比例有所升高。我国现有独生子女家庭1.5亿多户，出现一些“失独家庭”特殊困难家庭。家庭的婚姻、生育、养老等传统功能有所弱化，抵御风险的能力下降。
中国人口学会常务副会长、中国人民大学社会与人口学院院长翟振武说，“单独两孩”从政策上终止了“4－2－1”的家庭结构，有利于家庭经济社会功能的发挥，有利于提高家庭的抗风险能力，也有利于子女教育。
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