Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/19 11:41:39 Henan on “second child alone“ policy： scale effect of birth control，
Reporter (reporter Wang Hui) as the population of the largest province of the country, the province currently has about 1 million separate couples. Provincial population and family planning Commission official said yesterday that the couples second child policy of reproduction starts alone, Henan will bring a small resurgence of growth, but the impact on birth size manageable, started in Henan this policy is feasible.
According to the provincial population and family planning Commission preliminary statistics on population and organization experts estimated that the province separate couples start to go into a period of marriage in recent years. Captia calibre, the woman married at 22 estimated that the province currently has about 1 million separate couples, is expected within the coming period, added more than 150,000 individual couples a year.
The end of 2012, total population of 105.43 million people in Henan province. Single unit couples second child policy of reproduction starts a small resurgence of growth, but the impact on birth size manageable. Overall, with the rapid social and economic development, educated people are increasing, impact of child-rearing costs, among other factors, people's fertility desires greatly reduced, so that starting individual couple may have two-child policy in Henan is feasible.
Preliminary estimates in the smooth implementation of policies (after elimination of reproductive accumulation) case, the more populations of around 50,000 per year on average between ~8, birth rates increased 0.5~0.75 thousand per year. But at the start of the new policy, due to have accumulated a portion of the eligible individual couples, inevitable accumulation of reproductive issues arise. In Henan, according to projections of her 27 years of birth of the second child, current fertility piled up to 350,000, if these separate couples at the policy launch concentrated in one or two years after birth, significant impact on birth as short as possible. Therefore, in order to reduce the impact policies lead to fertility fluctuations, how to set up a separate wife bear two-child policy programmes is an important subject.
To implement the 18 the spirit of the decision so that comprehensive reproductive policy secure, especially as far as possible a big resurgence of childbirth and birth of depositions, Henan to actively improve fertility policy, will continue to adhere to the basic State policy of family planning, adhere to advocates one-child, control second child according to the law, three births prohibit reproductive policies. Gradual relaxation of the second condition of reproduction at the same time, we must strictly administer birth order. Implementation of separate family second child was not let go of birth second child policy, for failure to meet the second provisions of reproduction, also adhere to family planning policy. Especially for two children already, three or more births is strictly prohibited. Provincial population and family planning Commission official said, will be organized in the near future of the departments and units concerned experts, academics and practitioners, conducted extensive research and scientific measurement demonstration, provided scientific basis for policy adjustment improve the fertility of Henan province.
本报讯(记者 汪辉)作为全国人口第一大省，全省目前约有单独夫妻100万对。省人口计生委有关负责人昨日表示，单独夫妻可生育二胎政策的启动，会给河南带来小的生育回潮，但对出生规模影响可控，启动这一政策在河南是可行的。
据省人口计生委初步统计并组织有关人口专家测算，我省单独夫妻近几年开始陆续进入婚育期。按户籍人口口径、女方22岁结婚测算，全省目前约有单独夫妻100万对，预计今后一个时期内，每年将会新增15万多对单独夫妻。
2012年末，河南省总人口为10543万人。单独夫妇可生育二胎政策的启动会有小的生育回潮，但是对出生规模影响可控。总体而言，随着经济社会快速发展，人们受教育程度不断提高，养育孩子的成本增加等因素的影响，人们的生育意愿大大降低，因此，启动单独夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策在河南是可行的。
初步测算，在政策平稳实施(消除生育堆积以后)的情况下，平均每年多生的人口数约在5万～8万之间，每年出生率提高0.5～0.75个千分点。但在开始启动新政策时，由于已经积累了一部分符合条件的单独夫妻，必然会产生生育堆积问题。就河南来说，按女方27岁生育第二个子女推算，当前产生的生育堆积为35万对，如果这些单独夫妻都在政策启动后集中在一两年内生育，可能短期内对人口出生影响较大。因此，为了减少政策影响导致的生育波动，如何合理设定单独夫妻生育二孩政策的实施方案是一个重要课题。
为贯彻落实好十八大《决定》精神，使完善生育政策稳妥进行，特别是尽量消除出现大的生育回潮和出生堆积现象，河南一边要积极完善生育政策，一边要继续坚持计划生育基本国策，坚持提倡一胎，依法控制二胎，禁止生育三胎的基本生育政策。在逐步放宽生育二胎条件的同时，要严格依法管理生育秩序。实施单独生育二胎并不是放开生育二胎政策，对不合乎生育二胎规定的，还要坚持计划生育政策。特别是对于已经生育两个子女的，严格禁止生育三个及以上的多胎。 省人口计生委有关负责人表示，近期将组织有关部门和单位的专家、学者和实际工作人员，进行广泛深入的调查研究和科学测算论证，为河南省调整完善生育政策提供科学依据。
赞