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The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/19 11:50:21 Prof：let go two foetuses after compensation should give birth control family interests
Beijing authorities wide nets, November 18 (reporter Feng Huiling) aspect ratio, according to voice of the news reports, 18 third plenary session issued a series of policies, including a new awareness is very high, the new names among the people called second alone, official alone should be the correct name for the two children. Policies are undoubtedly good policies, but the new deal still leaves a lot of room for doubt, why limit two kids alone, rather than universal two-child policy? Faced with a number of families will select the second child was born, what challenges we will face? Good policy, what we need to do to prepare?
Yesterday (17th), academic experts on 18 the third plenary session of adjustment of the population planning policy held a forum to speak their minds. For the above questions, the experts have suggestions, in each case analyses.
92 China Wu Cangping learn to consultants, more than 30 years ago, he has on numerous occasions in the form of reports to the central building, the one child policy, he said, when the implementation of this policy is indeed imperative to brake hard.
Wu Cangping: our highest population of almost 30 million a year was born, 29,501,963 years, when the situation inside, if we, all of us can discover, by our high education level, by our conscious awareness of birth control, I see no such possibility. 80, was still advocating a parents only have one child, 91, we strictly control population, I think for us is the brakes, there is no alternative.
State family planning Commission, said Wang Peian, Deputy Director of health, when the family planning policy in China too fast population growth under control, significantly alleviate the population pressure on resources and environment, but since entering the new century, China's population situation may have changed.
Wang Peian: If current fertility policy does not change, women's total fertility rate continues to decline, peak will quickly reduce the total population, working-age population began to decline and population aging faster. Is expected to peak around 2050 years ageing population reached 440 million, accounting for one-third of the total population, continuing high sex ratio at birth in 2012 were up to 117.7 families traditional function on a weakening trend, to some extent, affect social harmony.
Adviser to the Chinese population society, Zhang said, 18 plenary session decision launched a separate two-child policy, which is in line with the historical expectations.
Zhang min: more than 30 years ago, the open letter said the Central, 2, in the future, and advocates that one couple to have only one child, generation, 2, 30, is such a promise in the first place. So now the central decision-making to achieve a single, is allowed to have a second child, a family is the only-child generation people, responded to the historical expectations.
Nankai University, Professor, Institute of population and development, the original new analysis finds that implementation of separate two-child policy will gradually change our country is currently facing a number of questions.
Original new: 2050 probably only able to increase the total population of 15 million to 20 million, and reduce the level of population ageing, by 2050, substantially reduced 1.2%, an increase of 26 million labour force, and high sex ratio of 16 countries and regions around the world than we are predominant. For example, Viet Nam, and India, and Azerbaijan, and Albania, compared to these countries with high sex ratio at more than 5 basis points higher. Over the past 30 years, we have the rest of my life came out more than 22 million to more than 34 million boys and appropriate relaxation of fertility, from the standpoint of natural selection, is sure to give birth sex structure of the population in the normal direction.
Renmin University of China Professor, Faculty of social and demographic Shuang Liu suggested that separate two-child policy is that many families look forward to good policies, but also not forget the protection for families practicing family planning in the future.
Shuang Liu: we've accumulated a lot of families practicing family planning, Governments cannot forget them, be sure to give them interest compensation, to protect them. Over the years, because this piece we have taken many preferential policies of family planning, now facing the new situation of such a comprehensive reform, our science policy with Pratt and Whitney policy networking issues.
XI ' an Jiaotong University Professor plum with its present Director, Institute for population and development's view, separate two-child policy is in line with the development of good policies, but at the same time we must pay attention, good policy will also bring many challenges.
Plum suffering: How can a reasonable assessment, guide the whole community, government officials and academics on a reasonable assessment of the practical effects of this policy, implemented during the operation in the future, which started before the crowd? It is the existing system of population and family planning, optimization of the Equalization of public service, public policy has a huge impact, people might think you're allowed to have a second child, our market ready.
Peking University Institute of population studies Professor Qiao Xiaochun also suggested that good policy in order to achieve the best results, many would also like to make early preparations.
Qiao Xiaochun: hospital for a President, he said that this policy back to a liberation, is certainly a lot of people at high risk to give birth, and focus on fertility, he just couldn't bear in our hospital. Later estimates of what it will need a lot of money, we should do more to prepare.
A lot of people are asking, why are qualified two children alone, without being able to implement universal two-child policy, the State family planning Commission, Wang Peian, Deputy Director of Health said, the current conditions are not ripe.
Wang Peian: first, can result in large swings in the birth, women's total fertility rate rebounded to above replacement level in the short term, appeared to be more serious accumulation of birth, put great strain on essential public services. Second vision population would exceed the total national population and development objectives, and the formation of cyclical fluctuations in birth, China's allocation of public resources to education, health, and adversely affect economic and social development.
(Original title: National Commission for health: implementation of "universal two-child policy" conditions are not ripe)
央广网北京11月18日消息 (记者冯会玲) 据中国之声《新闻纵横》报道，十八届三中全会发布了一系列政策，其中有一项新政关注度非常高，这个新政在民间的叫法叫单独二胎，官方的正确叫法应该是单独两孩。政策无疑是好政策，但新政出台还是留下了不少存疑的空间，为什么现在仍然限定单独两孩，而不是普遍两孩政策？面对好多家庭都会选择出生的第二个孩子，我们将面临哪些挑战？好政策出台，我们还需做哪些准备？
昨天(17日)下午，人口学界多位专家就十八届三中全会调整计划生育政策召开座谈会畅所欲言。针对上面的疑问，专家们纷纷建言献策，一一做出分析。
92岁的邬沧萍是中国人口学会的顾问，30多年前他就曾多次以报告形式向中央建言，要实行独生子女政策，用他的话说，当年实施这一政策确实是势在必行的急刹车。
邬沧萍：我们最高一年出生人口接近3000万，2950万1963年，当时这个情况里面，要是我们等到我们所有人都能觉悟，靠我们的文化水平高、靠我们的认识自觉来控制生育，我看没有这个可能。80年的时候，当时还是提倡一对父母只生一个孩子，91年我们就严格控制人口，对我们来讲我认为是急刹车，没有其他选择。
国家卫生计生委副主任王培安说，当年的计划生育政策使我国人口过快增长得到有效控制，大大缓解了人口对资源环境的压力，但进入新世纪以来，我国的人口形势出现了变化。
王培安：如果维持现行生育政策不变，妇女总和生育率将继续下降，总人口在达到峰值后将快速减少，劳动年龄人口开始减少，人口老龄化速度加快。预计到2050年左右老龄人口达到4.4亿的左右峰值，约占总人口的1/3，出生人口性别比持续偏高，2012年已经高达117.7，家庭传统功能呈弱化趋势，在一定程度上影响了社会和谐问题。
中国人口学会顾问张敏才说，十八届三中全会做出启动实施单独两孩政策的决定，这是顺应了历史预期。
张敏才：30多年前中央的公开信就说，在今后的2、30年，提倡一对夫妇只生一个孩子，就搞一代人，就搞2、30年，当初就是这么承诺的。所以现在又是中央的决策实现了单独，就是可以生二胎，一个家庭就是一代人独生子女，回应了历史的预期。
南开大学人口与发展研究所教授原新分析认为，实施单独两孩政策将会逐步改变我国目前面临的多个问题。
原新：到2050年大概只能够增加总人口1500万到2千万，而降低人口老龄化水平，到2050年大致能够降低1.2个百分点，能够增加2600万劳动力人口，和全世界性别比偏高的16个国家和地区相比，我们高高在上。比方说越南、印度、阿塞拜疆、阿尔巴尼亚，这些性别比偏高的国家相比高5个点以上。在过去的30年当中，我们已经多余生出来了2200万到3400万多余的男孩，适当的放宽一下生育率，从自然选择的角度来说，肯定会让出生人口性别结构向正常的方向在走。
中国人民大学社会与人口学院教授刘爽建议，单独两孩政策是许多家庭期盼的好政策，但同时也不能忘记对计划生育家庭未来的保障。
刘爽：我们这么多年累积了这么多计划生育家庭，政府是不能忘记他们的，一定要给他们利益补偿，要给他们保障。所以过去这些年，因为计划生育这一块我们采取了很多特惠政策，面临国家现在新的形势这样一个全面深化改革，我们的科学政策怎么跟普惠政策衔接的问题。
西安交通大学人口与发展研究所所长李树茁教授认为，单独两孩政策确实是顺应时代发展的好政策，但同时也必须关注，好政策也将带来不少挑战。
李树茁：怎么样能够合理的评估、引导整个社会大众、政府官员、学界对这个政策实际效果的一个合理的评价，将来在操作过程中怎么落实，哪些人群先启动？它对现行的人口计划生育的体制，公共服务的均等化、公共政策的优化都有巨大的冲击，老百姓可能都觉得自己可以生第二个孩子，我们的市场准备好了。
北京大学人口研究所教授乔晓春也建议，好政策要想取得最佳效果，许多方面还要早作准备。
乔晓春：妇幼保健院的一个院长，他说这回政策一放开以后，肯定是大量的高危人群要生育，而且集中生育，他说我们医院根本承受不了。以后预计就需要很多钱，我们还是应该多做一些准备。
不少人疑问，为什么现在还是限定单独两孩，而不能实施普遍两孩政策，国家卫生计生委副主任王培安对此表示，目前条件尚不成熟。
王培安：一是会导致出生人口大幅波动，妇女总和生育率短期内反弹到更替水平以上，出现比较严重的出生堆积，给各项基本公共服务带来很大的压力。二是人口总量可能突破国家人口发展远景规划目标，并形成周期性出生人口波动，给我国教育、卫生等公共资源的配置以及经济社会发展带来不利影响。
(原标题：国家卫生计生委：实施“普遍两孩”政策条件尚不成熟)
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