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The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/19 11:50:54 Separate second child policy started， or more than 1 million people a year
Our reporter Li Weiao Beijing
Boots finally fell to the ground.
November 15, adopted by the third plenary session of the CPC Central Committee on comprehensive decision on deepening the reform of major issue released, which refers to "adhere to the basic State policy of family planning, launch party is the policy of one-child couples to have two children."
Sign renovation for many years, "kids alone" policy will be formally implemented.
"As far as I know, ' separate kids ' policy will not pilot, but a one-time open. "A person close to the National Planning Commission told reporters that according to the law on population and family planning in China is next, every province people's Congress or its Standing Committee to modify the Planning Ordinance, the new policy is legally recognized. This step is scheduled for the end of this year until early next year.
According to a measured by the scholars must agree if the 2015 national urban and rural United let go "kids alone", the annual born population would increase to about 1 million people than it is now, more than 2 million people is less likely.
6 years ago has begun to prepare programme
It is understood that starting from 2007 at the latest, including number of Renmin University of China, Institute of population and social research institution has accepted the national population and family planning Commission delegate, research on fertility policy further adjustments to perfect.
In January 2010, issued by the national population and family planning Commission of the national population and development "Twelve-Five" planning approach (draft for soliciting opinions), it refers to "the safe implementation of ' spouse for one-child families can bear a second child ' policy pilot project".
By Renmin University of China Professor Zhai Zhenwu, Dean of community and population led pilot program was developed by the team of "three-step" means that starting from 2011, first opened in Northeast China and Zhejiang and other provinces piloted "stand-alone" second policy; the second step, let go of the provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai and; third, by 2015, in the national open "second child alone" policy.
Chak in the second half of 2010 after it has been modified to fine-tune the programme has submitted to the State Council. In July 2011, the National Conference for comprehensive reform of population and family planning work and half a year consensus: under the voluntary principles, you can select a number of pilot provinces for "single second" pilot.
But opposition officials and academics to some non-family planning system, together with the national population and family planning Commission of new people, 2012 "18" convened and subsequent Government institutions under the State Council, and many other factors, "second child alone" policy stalled talks.
In March this year, a new round of government institutional reform of the State Council, the national population and family planning Commission merged with the Ministry of health set up a National Planning Commission. In June identified health planning Commission "sanding" package, the start of "second child alone" re-entered the official agenda. (This newspaper has exclusive August 2, 2013, took the lead on this matter, please refer to the "second child alone" policy into the official agenda or piloted by the end of this year).
Many years of discussion and dispute, eventually converted into reform decisions of the plenary session.
Probably more than 1 million people a year
New deal starts, faced with a series of suspense: implement the "separate second child" policy, China would more population each year, at which time the population peak, what changes will happen??On the structure of China's population in the future, and what kind of impact? "It actually was the highest decision-making level are most concerned about a few core issues. "Familiar with the matter told reporters.
To answer these questions, State family planning was repeatedly entrusted the China population and Development Research Center, Renmin University of China School of social and population agencies for data measurement, even repeated measurement with the same underlying data.
The agencies measure results are not public. There is an argument, national development planning Commission believes that in implementing the "comprehensive second child", the are born each year in China's population will exceed 40 million. But this is not confirmed by the authorities.
Statistics show that, in 2012, our birth is 16.35 million; indeed, since 1998, my new student population has never exceeded 20 million people every year.
Demography also told this reporter, Guangzhou Wang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of population and labor economics, Chinese Academy of social sciences sociology researchers such as Liping Zhang, also "kids alone" and "comprehensive second" two alternatives have been measured. Concluded that:
One, if the 2015 national urban and rural United let go "kids alone", the annual born population would increase to about 1 million people than it is now, more than 2 million people is less likely. Population peak will occur around 2026-2029 years, peak value of an estimate of the total population is 1.401 billion people, up to about 1.412 billion.
Second, in 2015, the national implementation of the "comprehensive kids", born population would increase by about 6 million people every year, more than 10 million people is less likely. Peaks in the total population 2029-2031 years, peak value of an estimate of the total population is 1.439 billion people, up to about 1.459 billion.
If current fertility policy does not change, and fertility levels remained essentially stable, China population peak in 2023-2025 years, peak value of an estimate of the total population is 1.392 billion people, capped at about 1.41 billion.
Therefore, to estimate the mean value calculation, if you just let go "kids alone", is China's highest values do not let go of this policy is more than the population of about 9 million people, an increase of only 0.65%. Release the "comprehensive second child" supreme value than non-open policy of China's population of about 47 million people, an increase of 3.38%.
Guangzhou Wang, Liping Zhang, a measured conclusion population academia must be agreeable.
It is worth noting that, in January 2007, China issued the research report on national population development strategies. Report concludes that China's total population reached 1.36 billion and 1.45 billion in 2010 and 2020 respectively, circa 2033 peaked at around 1.5 billion.
Research report on national population development strategy research group is to bring together include more than more than 10 "two houses" of more than 300 experts and scholars, academicians, available only if made more than two years to complete the report. But later showed that this national-level reporting and the fact that larger deviations, thus suffering from population academic questioning and criticism. According to Office for National Statistics Bulletin, at the end of 2010, China's total population is 1.341 billion, 19 million people less than the report predicts 2012 only 1.354 billion at the end of, still not reached 1.36 billion.
However, demographers for this newspaper pointed out that, under the influence of policy on short-term stimulus, years ' worth of "baby just needs" it may be released in the next year or two set, 2014, and three years maternity newborn population could exceed 1 million, but the total population of the freshmen of the year are unlikely to reach 20 million people.
GDP is expected to grow 0.2%
Population policy concern, except in connection with family and personal well-being of citizens, but also because it will affect the process of social development.
Ageing is already facing increasingly serious challenges in China. Definition of aging society, population aged 65 and over population of more than 7%, or more than 60 years of age and older population of more than 10%.
As early as in 2001, the proportion of China's elderly population aged 65 and over has reached 7.1%, officially entered the aging society. By 2012, that number has reached 9.4% the same year, and above accounted for more than 60 years of age has reached 14.3%.
After the relaxation of the family planning policy, new-born population would dilute the proportion of older persons in the total population. But with the economic development, improvement in living standards, medical technology advancement and the improvement of the health care system, China's average life expectancy has increased year by year. In 2010, the average life expectancy is 74.83 years China, 2000 increase compared to 3.43. The "Twelve-Five" programme, by 2015, the average life expectancy is expected to increase for another age.
Under such circumstances, and proportion of older persons will not slow too much. Professor Zhai Zhenwu said open second growth, percentage of people aged 60 years and above in China can only do not let go of the lower 3%-4% and cannot solve the aging problem.
Labor age population aspects, by China Academy of Social Sciences population and Labor Economic Institute Director CAI Fang, editor of population and labor green skin book (2013) under refers to, China 15-59 age labor age population in 2010 that reached peak (on November 1, 2010 for 939.62 million people), subsequently this a digital is absolute reduced trend, population raised than (overall population Central African labor age population number and labor age population number of than) is began improve, this marks China of "population bonus" is disappeared.
In accordance with the laws of demographic transition, the working-age population growth will inevitably occur, the demographic dividend will go away. Law of economic development also shows that China's economic growth rate will inevitably move from unconventional to the norm. Effectively resolve, clear the current number of institutional obstacles-such as the population and family planning policy, employment policy, the household registration system, urbanization, educational system, and promoting reform, the "demographic dividend" will be expected to be "system of bonus" they are replacing.
As relaxed fertility policy Hou labour employment market will occurred how of changes, demographic home and the economists were think, while, Renaissance population of increased, in now on stimulus consumption, and increased employment post is benefits; on the, in 15 years Hou, that 2030 around, this batch Renaissance population also will into labour market, brings some active effects, despite in 900 million scale of labor age population before, they by accounted for of proportion can be described as little.
Mr CAI estimates that, if China's fertility policy in the short term will not have a positive impact on the GDP growth potential, the negative effects are also very weak, less than 0.01%. But after 2030, 2031, China's economic potential growth can be increased to 7.1% per cent; between 2046 and potential growth can be increased to 15.5% per cent.
Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for greater China, ' research team thought that if China were to relax the second child birth policy, 2030-2050, potential average annual economic growth rate of GDP will be 0.2%.
For example, China's GDP increased by 3%, by 0.2%, that is about equivalent to growth in 6%. With Mr CAI's view is similar. Source: the 21st century business Herald
本报记者 李微敖 北京报道
靴子终于落地。
11月15日，十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》对外发布，其中提到“坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策”。
这标志着延宕多年的“单独二胎”政策将正式实施。
“据我所知，‘单独二胎’政策将不会分省试点，而是一次性全面放开。”接近国家卫计委的一位人士对本报记者表示，接下来是依据中国《人口与计划生育法》，各个省份的人大或人大常委会修改各自的《计划生育条例》，将新政策在法理上予以确认。这一步骤预计在今年年底至明年年初即可进行。
一项受到学界一定认同的测算显示，如果2015年全国城乡统一放开“单独二胎”，则每年多出生的人口将比现在增加100万人左右，超过200万人的可能性很小。
6年前已开始准备方案
据了解，至迟从2007年开始，包括中国人民大学人口与社会学院等在内的数家研究机构就已接受当时的国家人口计生委委托，就生育政策的进一步调整完善展开调研。
2010年1月，在国家人口计生委下发的《国家人口发展“十二五”规划思路(征求意见稿)》中，就提到要“稳妥开展实行‘夫妻一方为独生子女的家庭可以生育第二个孩子’的政策试点工作”。
当时由中国人民大学社会与人口学院院长翟振武教授带领的团队制定的试点方案是 “三步走”：即从2011年开始，首先开放东北地区及浙江等省试行“单独”二胎政策；第二步，放开京沪等省份；第三步，2015年前，在全国全面放开“单独二胎”政策。
翟的这一方案在2010年下半年经过修改微调后曾提交国务院。2011年7月，在全国人口和计划生育半年工作暨综合改革工作会议形成共识：在自愿原则下，可选择一些试点省份进行“单独二胎”试点。
但因部分非计生系统的官员及学者的反对，加上国家人口计生委人事变更、2012年“十八大”召开和随后的国务院政府机构改革等众多因素，“单独二胎”政策一度搁置。
今年3月，国务院进行新一轮政府机构改革，国家人口计生委与卫生部合并成立国家卫计委。在6月确定了卫计委的“三定”方案后，启动“单独二胎”一事再次进入官方议程。(本报曾于2013年8月2日率先对此事进行了独家报道，详见《“单独二胎”政策再入官方议程 或今年年底试行》)。
多年的研讨和争议，最终转化为三中全会的改革决定。
每年可能多生100万人
新政启动后，面临一系列的悬念：实施“单独二胎”政策，中国究竟每年会多生多少人口，届时中国总人口的峰值，会发生什么样的变化？对未来中国人口结构，又能产生什么样的影响？ “实际上这也是最高决策层最为关心的几个核心问题。”知情人士向本报记者透露。
为解答这些问题，国家计生部门曾多次委托中国人口与发展研究中心、中国人民大学社会与人口学院等机构进行数据测算，甚至用同样的基础数据进行反复测算。
这两家机构的测算结果未对外界公布。有一种说法是，国家卫计委认为，实施“全面二胎”后，中国每年出生人口将超过4000万。但此说法未得到权威部门的证实。
统计数据表明，2012年，我国出生人口为1635万人；实际上，从1998年以后，我国每年新生人口从未超过2000万人。
有人口学者亦告知本报记者，中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所的王广州、中国社科院社会学所的张丽萍等研究人员，也分别就“单独二胎”与“全面二胎”两种方案进行过测算。得出结论是：
一，如果2015年，全国城乡统一放开“单独二胎”，则每年多出生的人口将比现在增加100万人左右，超过200万人的可能性很小。中国总人口高峰将在2026～2029年左右出现，高峰总人口估计值的均值为14.01亿人，上限为14.12亿人左右。
二，如果2015年，全国统一实施“全面二胎”，则每年多出生的人口将增加600万人左右，超过1000万人的可能性很小。总人口高峰将在2029～2031年出现，高峰总人口估计值的均值为14.39亿人，上限为14.59亿人左右。
而如果维持现行生育政策不变且生育水平保持基本稳定，则中国总人口高峰将在2023～2025年出现，高峰时期总人口估计值的均值为13.92亿人，上限为14.1亿人左右。
因此，以估计值的均值计算，如果只放开“单独二胎”，则中国人口最高值比不放开此项政策多出约900万人，增幅仅为0.65%。放开“全面二胎”，则中国人口最高值将比不放开政策多出约4700万人，增幅为3.38%。
王广州、张丽萍的这一测算结论得到人口学界的一定认同。
值得指出的是，2007年1月，中国曾发布《国家人口发展战略研究报告》。报告认为，中国总人口将于2010年、2020年分别达到13.6亿和14.5亿，2033年前后达到峰值15亿左右。
《国家人口发展战略研究报告》课题组是汇集包括十多位“两院”院士在内的300多位专家学者，用时两年多方始完成上述报告。但后来的情况表明，这一国家级报告与事实偏差较大，因而饱受人口学界的质疑和批评。如根据国家统计局的公报，截至2010年年底，中国总人口为13.41亿，比报告预测少了1900万人；2012年年底也只有13.54亿人，仍然没有达到13.6亿人。
不过亦有人口学家对本报指出，受政策短期刺激的影响，多年积累的“生育刚需”有可能在未来一两年内集中释放，2014年、2015年多生育的新生人口可能会超过100万，但年度新生人口总数不大可能达到2000万人。
GDP预期多增长0.2个百分点
人口政策之所以备受关注，除因为与家庭和公民个人福址相关外，还因为它将影响社会发展的进程。
老龄化已经是中国面临的日益严峻的挑战。老龄化社会的定义为，人口中65岁及以上老年人口比重超过7%，或60岁及以上老年人口比重超过10%。
而早在2001年，中国65岁及以上老年人口占总人口比例就已达到7.1%，正式进入老龄化社会。到2012年，这一数据已达到9.4%；同年，60周岁及以上人口的占比也达到了14.3%。
放宽生育政策后，新增的出生人口会稀释老年人在总人口中的比重。但随着经济发展、生活水平提高、医疗技术进步及医疗保障制度的改善，中国的人均预期寿命亦在逐年上升。2010年，中国人口平均预期寿命达到74.83岁，比2000年提高3.43岁。而 “十二五”规划提出，到2015年，预期平均寿命将再增加一岁。
这样的情况下，老年人占比将不会降低太多。翟振武教授曾表示，即便全面放开二胎生育，我国60岁及以上老人占比也只能比不放开降低3-4个百分点，并不能根本上解决老龄化问题。
劳动年龄人口方面，由中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所所长蔡昉主编的《人口与劳动绿皮书(2013)》提到，中国15-59岁劳动年龄人口在2010年即达到峰值(2010年11月1日为93962万人)，随后这一数字呈绝对减少趋势，人口抚养比(总体人口中非劳动年龄人口数与劳动年龄人口数之比)则开始提高，这标志着中国的“人口红利”正在消失。
按照人口转变规律，劳动年龄人口负增长必然发生，人口红利终将消失。经济发展规律也表明，中国经济增长速度将不可避免地从超常规转为常态。但若能有效化解、清除当前的诸多体制性障碍——如人口与生育政策、就业政策、户籍制度、城镇化、教育体制等，推进改革，则“人口红利”将可望被“制度红利”所接替。
至于放宽生育政策后劳动力就业市场会发生怎样的变化，人口学家及经济学家们认为，一方面，新生人口的增加，在当下对刺激消费、增加就业岗位不无裨益；另一方面，在15年后，即2030年左右，这批新生人口也将步入劳动力市场，带来一些积极影响，尽管在9亿规模的劳动年龄人口面前，他们所占的比例可谓微乎其微。
蔡昉认为，如果中国调整人口生育政策，短期内不会产生对GDP潜在增长率的正面影响，负面影响程度也非常微弱，不足0.01个百分点。但在2030年之后，2031年至2035年，中国经济潜在增长率可以提高7.1%至11.8%；2046年至2050年的潜在增长率可提高15.5%至22.0%。
德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家马骏的研究团队曾认为，如果中国放宽二胎生育政策，2030年-2050年间，GDP的潜在年均经济增长率将因此提高0.2个百分点。
比如届时中国GDP增长幅度为3%，那么上升0.2个百分点，也即相当于增长率提高了6%左右。这与蔡昉的观点相近。来源：21世纪经济报道
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