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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/21 1:33:15 Beijing over 60% “separate“ family wants second child
The Beijing news yesterday, Beijing municipal population and family planning Commission, said the city eligible for "alone" in the family, there are 60%-70% birth of the second child. Beijing registered population, has for 18 years in a row "1" around low fertility. In other words, during the Beijing Hukou females of child-bearing age, average per person to have only one child.
Policies after the introduction of the amending Ordinance
Beijing municipal population and family planning Commission said yesterday that after the introduction of country-specific policies, will enhance the development of specific implementation plan, organization and implementation of the Beijing municipal population and family planning regulations according to law revision of the work. In amending the Ordinance at the same time, further improve relevant incentives support and special assistance, interest-oriented policies.
Do thorough research in the early demonstration, but yesterday, the Beijing municipal population and family planning Commission in written materials released to the media, did not mention how many couples in Beijing, in line with his "second child alone" conditions of the new deal. However, the material mentioned in the city eligible for "separate" households, 60%-70% birth of the second child, and according to this desire for giving birth, registered population of Beijing's total fertility rate, could rise to 1.3 per cent.
Start adjustment improve fertility policy
Yesterday, the Beijing municipal population and family planning Commission introduced to give effect to the central unified implementation of the national urban and rural "one is one-child couples to have two children" (commonly known as the "second child alone" or "second child alone") policy decision, Beijing has started to adjust perfect birth policy work.
According to the current of the People's Republic of China Law on family planning, State advocates a couple one-child, the provincial people's Congress or its Standing Committee may establish local laws allowing couples who meet certain conditions, birth of the second child.
On November 16, the State family planning Commission, said Wang Peian, Deputy Director of health, Central decided to implement "kids alone" no uniform timetable for new national and provincial responsibility, according to the situation on the ground, in accordance with the Organization, however, throughout the implementation time should not be too long interval.
Possibility
Why such a low fertility rate in Beijing?
Expert: "not" + girls = low fertility
Data: the Beijing family planning Commission, said Beijing remain low fertility, 18 total fertility rate running at around 1. While keeping the total population continues to grow, but weakening of inertia. Six General information of the country, two total fertility rate in major cities Beijing, Shanghai, and is the lowest.
Expert analysis: Renmin University of China Professor Zhai Zhenwu, Dean of community and population introduced, according to academic research, fertility rates in recent years, Beijing has fallen to around 0.8-0.9. Was mainly caused by bearing the high cost in big cities, high pressure of survival, many couples prefer to have children, and even choose not to have children, a large proportion of unmarried women of reproductive age. In addition, there is an unavoidable reason, are very focused at Beijing University, the city's approximately 1 million households, were college students, including five hundred thousand or six hundred thousand female students, in the total fertility rate is calculated, all of whom were included in the Census register of women of childbearing age, which extended calculation base, objectively, lower levels of fertility. However, the majority of college graduates, and reproductive behaviour are not in Beijing. The total fertility rate in Shanghai, also has this factors.
Focus 1
Fertility rate rise increased pressure on public resources
Official translation: Beijing Municipal family planning Commission, said that at present, Beijing's annual natural growth of the household about 80,000 people. Implementation of the "second child alone" policy, the expected first five years, there will be certain increase in birth. But after peaking will gradually decline. Have a large effect on the city's overall population size.
Expert analysis: Renmin University of China Professor Zhai Zhenwu, Dean of community and population that "second child alone" policy upon landing, although Beijing has registered population size has little effect, but the non-domicile population lives and works in Beijing, is still of child-bearing age population, its reproductive behavior change, the fertility rate climbed, will heighten competition in Beijing public service resources, this pressure and impact cannot be ignored.
Zhai Zhenwu said that in recent years, Beijing around childbirth at 21.22 million, one household is more likely to be born in Beijing in the field of children. The vast majority of them are, to live together with his parents, in Beijing's development. This "second child alone" after landing the new deal, non-Jing nationality children born and living in Beijing, there will be a lot of increment. The next few years, Beijing's obstetric beds, kindergartens, schools and other public services resources without good leveling perfection, or even more nervous.
Focus 2
Number of elders 60 years after
Official translation: maternity policy adjustments, effects on population structure gradient. This "second child alone" new policies, ease only weak levels of ageing, but in recent decades, will not alter the number of older persons. For the city, and the United States are similar to a large number of working-age immigrants will adjust the demographic structure, ageing of the staff to the capital city has a significant dilution, far exceeding the birth policy impact.
Expert analysis: on ageing, Development Director of the Strategic Studies Center of Nankai University Professor yuanxin pointed out that current launch "separate second child" policies, short and medium term will not affect the total elderly population, but weakly lower levels of ageing. It is estimated that the "separate second child" compared with the current fertility policy, in 2030 may be aging in national level from 24.1% per cent to 2050 from 34.1% per cent until after 2074, the policy will only affect the elderly population. Obviously, the "second child alone" amid recent weak fall effect of ageing of the population, but there was a more significant decline on long term population ageing.
Visit
One-day admissions ward building will be built in 170 patients plus maternity beds
Yesterday, part of the Beijing Municipal People's Congress representative to the maternity hospital focused inspections. Not until 9 o'clock, the lobby's team has been back up for miles, waiting in line in addition to pregnant women, and men, old man. 10 diagnosis of obstetric clinic, each row of the 120 patients.
"We doctors meeting patients ' record ', ' day of 170 patients. "The Beijing maternity hospital director Yan Songbiao said that hospital admissions per day now reached four thousand or five thousand people, and the volume of outpatient service building designed to accommodate just 1000 people.
Six journalists in obstetrics wards, beds have all been sold out, even the reproductive medicine clinic "test-tube babies" reception of over 300 people every day. According to Yan Songbiao on, a total of 192 obstetric beds in hospitals, long term use rate of 116% per cent, meaning that on a daily basis "overload" operation. Against the maternity hospital "a hard" issue, Yan Songbiao has been consulting with the Chaoyang District Government, new building increasing the number of maternity beds.
Yan Songbiao said the hospital is now social sector consultation and, intends to go ahead with production test "packages" system, pregnant women checked package paid at least 12 times, including registration, testing, inspection and other costs, introduce prepaid for pregnant women, based on actual costs incurred after the settlement. He said that the current "packages" has the support of City Center, is expected to launch next year.
Measuring
Second child of the actual proportion of 15% per cent
Zhang Weiyuan, Deputy Director of Beijing maternity hospital said the hospital currently pregnant women, "second child" now account for the proportion of actual to target around. Both "double-single" couple, also breaches the condemned persons. "Second child" focused on pregnant women ages 35-40 years of age.
He explained that the hospital to investigate the nulliparous women under 35 years old, of which more than 40% of Primiparous Women birth a second child will. In addition, there will be some couples based on pressure from his parents chose to give birth to a second child. Therefore, after the new release brings the contradiction between supply and demand will become more pronounced.
Xiu made Vice Chairman of the Health Committee of the NPC, and if you let go of "stand-alone" second child, is also likely to face issues ranging from older mothers more focused. She recommended that hospitals should prepare for baby boom prepare well in advance and effectively measured reception, service, capable of withstanding much pressure.
Yesterday, the Beijing Municipal Hospital Authority Feng Guosheng said that Beijing has introduced special planning for the establishment of medical institutions, but are not detailed enough, the next step to flesh out plans, research specialists, the development of General Hospital. "For example, a child is supposed to expand hospital to see a doctor, or is directed to the General Hospital? Delivery should be territorial management, is also free to choose? ”
Experts from various municipal hospitals will implement "team medicine", medical teams led by experts, patients first by the general practitioner visits and checks by experts. Consultation of various municipal hospitals will also set up a unified platform, consultations between hospitals or chronic diseases.
This version of interview statements/Beijing News reporter Wei Ming wen Xiangru Haichow Elsholtzia Herb Herba Moslae
(Original title: Beijing over 60% "separate" family wants second child)
新京报讯 昨日，北京市人口计生委表示，全市符合条件的“单独”家庭中，有六到七成想生育第二个子女。北京户籍人口，已连续18年保持“1”左右的低生育率。也就是说，北京户籍女性在育龄期间，平均每人只生一个孩子。
政策出台后将修订条例
北京市人口计生委昨天表示，待国家具体政策出台后，将抓紧拟定具体实施方案，依法组织实施《北京市人口与计划生育条例》的修订完善工作。在修订《条例》同时，进一步做好完善相关奖励扶助、特别扶助等利益导向政策的工作。
虽然前期做过详细的调研论证，但昨天，北京市人口计生委向媒体公布的书面材料中，并没有提到北京多少育龄夫妇，符合此番“单独二胎”新政的申请条件。不过，材料中提到，全市符合条件的“单独”家庭，六到七成想生育第二个子女；按照这个生育意愿，北京户籍人口的总和生育率，可升至1.3左右。
启动调整完善生育政策
昨日，北京市人口计生委介绍，为落实中央在全国城乡统一实施“一方是独生子女夫妇可生育两个孩子”(俗称“单独二胎”或“单独二孩”)政策的决定，北京已启动调整完善生育政策的工作。
按照现行《中华人民共和国计划生育法》，国家提倡一对夫妻生育一个子女，但各省级人民代表大会或其常务委员会，可以制定地方法律，允许符合一定条件的夫妇，生育第二个子女。
11月16日，国家卫生计生委副主任王培安表示，中央决定实施“单独二胎”新政全国不设统一时间表，由各省负责，根据当地实际情况，依法组织实施，但各地实施时间不宜间隔过久。
■ 释疑
北京生育率为何这么低？
专家：“生不起”+女学生多=生育率低
数据：北京市计生委称，北京长期保持低生育水平，连续18年总和生育率在1左右。人口总量虽然保持持续增长，但惯性趋弱。国家六普数据显示，北京、上海两大城市的总和生育率，是全国最低的。
专家分析：中国人民大学社会与人口学院院长翟振武教授介绍，根据学界的调研，北京生育率近年来已下降至0.8—0.9左右。主要原因包括大城市生育成本高，生存压力大，很多夫妇不愿多生孩子，甚至选择不生孩子，还有相当一部分育龄女性未婚。此外，还有一个不容忽视的特殊原因，就是北京的大学非常集中，全市约有100万户人口，是在校大学生，其中包括五六十万女大学生，在计算总和生育率时，她们都被纳入了户籍育龄妇女，也就是扩大了测算基数，客观上拉低了生育率。但是，多数大学生毕业后，生育行为并不在北京发生。上海的总和生育率，也有这个因素。
焦点 1
生育率攀升增公共资源压力
官方解读：北京市计生委称，目前，北京年度户籍自然增长8万人左右。实施“单独二孩”政策后，预计前五年，出生人口会有一定的增加。但在达到峰值后会逐步下降。对全市总体人口规模不会产生大的影响。
专家分析：中国人民大学社会与人口学院院长翟振武教授认为，“单独二胎”政策落地后，虽然北京户籍人口规模影响不大，但在北京工作、生活的非户籍流动人口，仍以育龄人口为主，其生育行为改变，生育率的攀升，必将加剧北京公共服务资源的竞争，这种压力和影响，不容忽视。
翟振武说，近几年，北京分娩量在21—22万左右，一多半是在北京出生的外地户籍孩子。他们中的绝大多数人，都要随父母一起生活，在北京成长。此次“单独二胎”新政落地后，在北京出生、生活的非京籍孩子，还会有一个持续的不小的增量。未来数年，北京的产科床位、幼儿园、学校等公共服务资源，如果没有很好的调配完善，或将更加紧张。
焦点 2
60年后才影响老年人数量
官方解读：生育政策的调整，对人口结构的影响也是渐变的。比如这次“单独二胎”新政，只会微弱缓解北京的老龄化水平，但近几十年，都不会改变老年人的数量。对于北京来说，和美国相似，大量劳动年龄段的移民，会调整人口结构，来京工作人员对城市老龄化有重大稀释作用，远超生育政策的影响。
专家分析：南开大学老龄发展战略研究中心主任原新教授指出，目前启动实施“单独二胎”政策，近中期不会影响老年人口总量，但会微弱地降低老龄化水平。据测算，“单独二胎”与现行生育政策相比，2030年可将全国的老龄化水平从24.1%降到23.8%；2050年从34.1%降到32.8%；直到2074年以后，该政策才会影响老年人口数量。显然，“单独二胎”对于近中期的人口老龄化有微弱的下降作用，但是对远期的人口老龄化有较显著的下降作用。
■ 探访
一天接诊170病人将建病房楼加产床
昨天，部分北京市人大代表前往妇产医院集中视察。不到9点钟，大厅的队伍已经排起长龙，排队等候的除了孕妇，还有不少男士、老人。在产科门诊的10个诊位，每个都排着120位病人。
“我们医生接诊的‘最高纪录’，是一天看了170个病人。”北京妇产医院院长严松彪说，医院目前的接诊量每天达到四五千人，而门诊楼的设计容纳量仅为1000人。
记者在产科六病区看到，床位已全部爆满，就连生殖医学门诊的“试管婴儿”接诊量每天都超过了300人。据严松彪介绍，医院一共有192张产科病床，长期使用率达到116%，意味着每天都在“超负荷”运转。针对妇产医院“一床难求”问题，严松彪称已同朝阳区政府协商，新建一座病房楼增加产床数量。
严松彪透露，医院现正在和人社部门协商，拟推行产检“套餐制”，将孕妇至少要做的12次产检打包付费，内容包括挂号、化验、检查等多项费用，孕妇实行预付费，生产之后再根据实际发生的费用结算。他说，目前“套餐制”已得到市医保中心的支持，有望明年推出。
■ 测算
生二胎实际比例占15%-20%
北京妇产医院副院长张为远表示，在目前医院接诊的孕妇中，生“二胎”的实际比例现已占到15—20%左右。其中既有“双独”夫妇，也有违规超生者。“二胎”孕妇年龄段集中在35—40岁。
他介绍，医院曾对35岁以下初产妇进行调查，其中超过40%的初产妇均表示有生二胎的意愿。此外，还会有部分夫妇基于父母的压力选择生二胎。因此，新政放开后带来的供需矛盾会更加明显。
市人大教科文卫体委员会副主任委员张秀芳提出，如果放开“单独”二胎，还可能面临高龄产妇更加集中等一系列问题。她建议，医院应提前做好迎接生育高峰准备，并切实测算能承受多大的接诊、服务压力。
昨天，北京市医院管理局局长封国生表示，北京已出台医疗机构设置专项规划，但还不够细致，下一步将细化规划，研究专科、综合医院的发展关系。“例如，儿童看病到底是应该扩张专科医院，还是引导到综合医院？孕妇分娩应属地管理，还是自主选择？”
各市属医院将推行专家“团队医疗”，由专家领衔组成医疗团队，患者先由普通医生接诊，再由专家把关。各市属医院还将设立统一的会诊平台，医院间能会诊疑难疾病。
本版采写/新京报记者 魏铭言 温薷
(原标题：北京逾6成“单独”家庭想生二孩)
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