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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/21 1:33:32 Business Watch： second new deal or promote the domestic milk powder enterprises development of China
On November 15, the people's daily reported "single second" latest news. 18 of the party recently endorsed by the third plenary session of the CPC Central Committee on several major issues of comprehensive reform decision. The decision made, adhere to the basic State policy of family planning, launch party is the policy of one-child couples to have two kids, and gradually perfecting family planning policies, promote long-term balanced population development.
Subsequently, several media reports said the goes well, separate second be piloted in late 2013 or early 2014. At the same time, after 2015 open "second child" policy is also being proposed.
Second child alone what impact on the future direction of Chinese society, cannot yet be completely predictable, but is mulling merger and reorganization of the dairy industry in the Mainland, is certainly a good news. In a matter of days, and dairy companies rose or rose.
Industry estimates, 2015, the milk market in the Mainland will be increased at an annual rate of 10%~20% capacity. Market research shows that mainland consumers ' choice of ocean milk rate remains high. In the huge market and policy support to gradually increase the environment, China-made milk powder will be how to counter attack?
Politics: programme although not announced mergers has begun
In early June this year, the Ministry launched the raise the level of quality of milk powder to boost community action programme on consumer confidence, organizing a three-month infant formula milk powder enterprises ' quality and safety checks. Half a month later, yashili mengniu acquisitions mergers and acquisitions reached, created the acquisition record of the dairy industry in the Mainland.
Meanwhile, multiple Ocean milk brands people trust reputation decline due to negative public opinion, China-made milk powder in a rare opportunity for development.
In late July, the Ministry officials revealed to the media, mergers of the dairy industry restructuring programme has been completed. Public opinion believes that after the implementation of the programme, will make existing domestic milk prices of mass was eliminated, industry concentration further increases, eventually may leave fifty or sixty large milk prices in the market.
Until October, the "mysterious" rule is still not issued, and media reports said milk enterprises merger and reorganization of programmes are in the process of approval of the State Council, issued only a matter of time.
At that time, many media have predicted this programme will be published in October.
During the coming out of the media programme content, called domestic infant formula industry restructuring goal is the integration of domestic milk prices in 5 years for around 50 top domestic brand milk concentration of more than 80%.
Above is the second half of 2013 mainland dairy industry environment, "still holds the pipa" restructuring plan, spurred by very active dairy stocks, soared all the way, to yili shares, for example, since June, shares had risen more than 40%.
Currently, mergers and the scheme is just a name, mainland such as yili, mengniu and bright dairy giant has already entered into the operational phase.
From the perspective of their performance in the capital markets, mengniu's acquisition of yashili, outperform modern farming, huishan dairy became Queen, moves that could be interpreted as "hoarding ammunition", prepared for the restructured to seize market opportunities.
Competition status: Ocean milk brands on the mainland market
In late October, Japan Meiji Milk brands announced a temporary withdrawal from the Chinese market, which was first publicly announced in recent years to abandon the Chinese market the famous Ocean milk brands.
Public opinion, exit Meiji has two reasons, first by Japan nuclear radiation pollution, and second, the mainland market is too competitive, the brand's poor sales record.
In fact, since the second half of 2013, Ocean milk brands in China, pandemics, government antitrust investigations of the brand and to impose severe penalties, mainland media consumer complaints (frequent obstructions found in milk), sales channel (Tianjin "first milk") has also been strong in areas such as supervision by public opinion.
Nevertheless, many ocean milk brand infant milk powder market plays an important role in the Mainland, but also brand new venue.
In the "second child alone" policy announced three days later, the world's largest dairy group France RAND hundred Jerry Huizhou city, Li group and dairy foods limited jointly announced the forthcoming China-listed a powdered infant formula.
In addition, Meiji milk out of China, another Japan brand has a high profile in China. Japan's third-largest dairy brand and fame in China using agent for selling milk powder, recently started joint ventures with master in order to sell milk powder, baby food and baby products.
Industry opinion: opportunities for China-made milk powder from medium and small cities
Recently, multiple industry research agency said in a report, separate second policy is going to pull the mother-baby and child care products related in the short term consumption.
Separate second policy has brought China-made milk powder which affected? An interview with several media response to this topic has some in the industry, following is a tease –
-Optimistic
Second child policy alone landing, infant formula industry will be the first to benefit from it. Taking into account the ratio increases and the price of milk powder formula-feeding natural growth, industry's overall revenue growth in the coming years is likely to exceed 20%.
The pressures of family life in big cities is large, fertility desires than medium and small cities. Milk consumption increases more of middle and small cities may be greater, higher share of China-made milk powder in these markets and, therefore, separate second policy would significantly increase the sales of China-made milk powder.
Conservative:
Second child alone on long-term population trends of core significance is to change judging, improved valuations, but limited impact on short-term results.
In 2012, the market share of imports of Chinese milk powder in excess of 50%, in the high-end milk powder market data even than 70%. As the ocean of milk powder have to up the ante to the Chinese market, Chinese milk companies face greater competition.
Public opinion watch-large market needs a big business
Now, how big is baby milk powder markets in the Mainland? Next, how big is this huge market potential? This is not just a capacity increase of 10 points each year micro issues, but also has the potential to spread to other social problems of the industrial chain, newborn first appeared in the ripple effect of the increase in infant formula on the market.
In fact, the 18 prior to the convening of the third plenary session of the Party Central's determination to revitalize the domestic milk powder has already revealed, on the program was still stuck in a relatively conservative phase.
As early as in late August, on the Central formation "formula team" and 30 billion merger Fund support rumor, several media reports at that time, the Ministry has been hand-picked to complete infant milk powder producers "national team" list of 6 companies including yili, mengniu will introduce high-end milk powder brands together to rival to the ocean of milk.
Soon, Ministry officials will clear denied has "national team" of concept, but a months Hou (September end of) China dairy industrial association organization of once activities, actually has to public indicates that has central of attitude: while no "national team", but high-end milk powder brand in actual operation in the does was support, and was concentrated promotion, just, support and promotion is not by Ministry but by breast Association led.
In the domestic high-end infant milk powder on the tour, Chief Engineer of the miit attended and delivered a speech. Promote activities although there is no official name for this, but it is carried out in the context of apparent official, though not the legend of "30 billion", but there are 6 matches the rumored brand.
On this matter, clearly felt the Center from both policy and public opinion support for the China-made milk powder brands, Lenovo's five oceans this summer that massive milk brands under antitrust investigation, even from another side confirms the conclusion.
Big market must be the needs of big business, in the face of such a huge market, and since people confidence in the fragile domestic milk powder melamine incident, how can the Central blind?
However, the reality of the market is, in opinion polls about the milk, of high select Ocean milk, several mainland dairy giant has always been unable to redress this situation.
Second new deal alone is about the purpose, followed the second half of 2014 are affected by this policy will affect the baby boom, when the infant formula market, you must have a bloody battle.
Various media reports and market analysis showed that kind of attitude: North of guangshen's Super cities and cities in the Mainland is the main battlefield of the ocean of milk, domestics should go now, "rural areas surrounding the city" course.
However, since two months ago about the "China-made milk powder tour" can be seen on mainland dairy companies will not suffice, six high-end milk powder brands, while milk immediately after the promotion began actively marketing in the North to Guangzhou-Shenzhen and other places.
From the current situation, the domestic high-end milk powder to regain momentum is large, but its price compared to the ocean of milk, and there is no advantage, and quickly won the confidence of consumers in the quality, likely in the short term therefore will not result in qualitative changes in market share. But their prospects from 2015, with the increase of central support, as well as mergers and acquisitions policy introduced, domestics counter attack possibilities is gradually increased.
Say one last thing, price is not the battle for this market the most important factor, because there is no parent willing to risk baby's health for cheap. Therefore, only the most stable quality and Word of mouth, the key point is the onslaught of inverses. (Writer, people's daily online public opinion monitoring enterprises Department of public opinion)
11月15日，人民网报道了“单独二胎”的最新消息。党的十八届三中全会日前审议通过了《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》。《决定》提出，坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。
随后，多家媒体报道称，如进展顺利，单独二胎将于2013年年底或2014年年初试行。同时，关于2015年之后全面放开“二胎”的政策也正在拟议中。
单独二胎对中国社会未来的走向将带来何种影响，目前尚无法完全预知，但对于内地正在酝酿兼并重组的乳业而言，无疑是一大利好消息。短短几天，乳业股纷纷大涨或涨停。
业内人士预测，2015年起，内地奶粉市场将以每年10%～20%的速度增容。各种市场调查显示，内地消费者对洋奶粉的选择率依然居高不下。在庞大的市场和政策支持力度逐步加大的环境下，国产奶粉将如何逆袭？
政策风向：方案虽未出台 兼并已经开始
今年6月初，工信部发布了《提高乳粉质量水平 提振社会消费信心行动方案》，组织开展为期三个月的婴幼儿配方乳粉企业质量安全专项检查。半个月后，蒙牛收购雅士利的并购交易达成，创造了内地乳业并购的新纪录。
与此同时，曾被国人信赖的多个洋奶粉品牌因负面舆情事件导致口碑下滑，国产奶粉迎来了一次难得的发展契机。
7月下旬，工信部官员向媒体透露，乳业兼并重组方案已制定完成。舆论认为，该方案实施后，将会使国内现有的乳企大规模被淘汰，产业集中度进一步提高，最终市场可能将留下五六十家大型乳企。
直到10月，这份“神秘”的细则却依然没有出台，又有媒体报道称，乳企兼并重组方案正处于国务院的审批过程中，出台只是时间问题。
当时，很多媒体都预测这份方案会在10月内正式发布。
期间，有媒体曝出方案具体内容，称国内婴幼儿奶粉行业重组目标是在5年后将国内乳企整合为50家左右，前十大国产品牌奶粉集中度超过80%。
以上便是2013年下半年内地乳业的大环境，在“犹抱琵琶”的重组方案刺激下，乳业股表现非常活跃，一路猛涨，以伊利股份为例，自6月以来，股价上涨幅度超过40%。
目前看来，兼并重组方案只是一个名头，伊利、蒙牛、光明等内地几大乳业巨头早已经进入到实际操作阶段。
从它们在资本市场的表现上看，蒙牛收购雅士利，增持现代牧业，伊利入股辉山乳业，这些举动其实都可以理解为“囤积弹药”，为重组后抢占市场先机做准备。
竞争现状：洋奶粉品牌 盯准内地市场
10月下旬，日本奶粉品牌明治宣布暂时退出中国市场，这也是近年来首个公开宣布放弃中国市场的知名洋奶粉品牌。
当时的舆论认为，明治的退出有两点原因，一是受到日本核辐射污染影响，二是内地市场竞争过于激烈，该品牌销售业绩不佳。
其实，自2013年下半年以来，洋奶粉品牌在华屡屡受挫，中国政府对多个品牌进行了反垄断调查并处以重罚，内地媒体在消费者投诉（频繁在奶粉中发现异物）、销售渠道（天津“第一口奶”事件）等方面也进行了强大的舆论监督。
尽管如此，众多洋奶粉品牌依然在内地婴幼儿奶粉市场占据着重要地位，而且还有新品牌进场。
就在“单独二胎”政策公布的三天后，世界最大乳业集团法国兰特黎斯集团和惠州市百吉瑞乳制食品有限公司联合宣布即将在中国上市一款婴幼儿配方奶粉。
此外，明治奶粉退出中国市场，另一个日本品牌却高调入华。日本第三大乳品品牌的和光堂原本在中国采用代理方式进行奶粉销售，最近开始与康师傅合资，以销售奶粉、婴幼儿辅食以及母婴用品为主。
业内观点：国产奶粉的机会来自中小城市
近日，多个行业研究机构均发布报告称，单独二胎政策必将在短期内拉动母婴及育儿产品的相关消费。
单独二胎政策对于国产奶粉到底带来了哪些影响呢？多家媒体针对这一话题采访了一些业内人士，以下为观点梳理——
●乐观型
单独二胎政策的落地，婴幼儿奶粉行业将首先受益。若考虑奶粉喂养比例的提高和奶粉价格的自然增长，未来几年行业整体收入增长可能超过20%。
大城市家庭生活压力较大，因此生育意愿低于中小城市。中小城市奶粉消费增量更大的幅度可能更大，国产奶粉在这类市场的占有率较高，因此，单独二胎政策将显著增加国产奶粉的销量。
●保守型：
单独二胎的核心意义在于改变对长期人口趋势的判断，改善估值，但对短期业绩影响有限。
2012年，中国进口奶粉的市场占有率超过了50%，在高端奶粉市场这一数据甚至超过了70%。随着洋奶粉纷纷加码中国市场，国产奶粉企业会面临更激烈的竞争。
舆情观察——大市场需要大企业
目前，内地的婴幼儿奶粉市场到底有多大？未来，这个庞大的市场还有多大的潜力？这不仅是一个每年10个点增容的微观问题，更是有可能波及其他产业链的社会问题，新生儿增加的第一个连锁反应就出现在婴幼儿奶粉市场上。
其实，在党的十八届三中全会召开之前，中央对于振兴国产奶粉的决心早已显露，只是程序上仍停留在一个相对保守的阶段。
早在8月下旬，关于中央组建“奶粉国家队”并给予300亿并购资金支持的传言甚嚣尘上，当时多家媒体报道称，工信部已经钦点完成婴幼儿奶粉生产企业“国家队”名单，包括伊利、蒙牛在内的6家企业将推出高端乳粉品牌，共同抗衡洋奶粉。
很快，工信部高官便明确否认了“国家队”的概念，但一个月后（9月底）中国乳制品工业协会组织的一次活动，其实已经向公众表明了中央的态度：虽然没有“国家队”，但高端乳粉品牌在实际操作中确实受到扶持、被集中推介，只不过，扶持与推介并非由工信部而是由乳协牵头。
在这次国产高端婴幼儿奶粉推介会上，工信部总工程师应邀出席并讲话。这次推介活动虽然没有以官方名义进行，但却是在明显的官方背景下进行的，虽然没有传说中的“300亿”，但却有了6家与传闻相匹配的品牌。
从这件事上，可以明显感受到中央从政策和舆论两方面对国产奶粉品牌的支持，联想到今年夏天那场声势浩大的五大洋奶粉品牌接受反垄断调查事件，更可以从另一个侧面印证这样的结论。
大市场一定是需要大企业的，面对如此庞大的市场和三聚氰胺事件以来国人对于国产奶粉脆弱的信心，中央怎能视而不见？
但是，现实的市场环境是，各种有关奶粉的民意调查中，洋奶粉的选择率居高不下，几家内地乳业巨头始终无法扭转这一局面。
单独二胎新政即将施行，随之而来的必将是2014年下半年受此政策影响的生育高峰，届时，婴幼儿奶粉市场必有一番血战。
各种媒体报道和市场分析观点均流露出这样的态度：北上广深这样的超级城市以及内地一线城市是洋奶粉的主战场，国货现在应该走“农村包围城市”的路线。
然而，从两个月前的那场“国产奶粉推介会”上可以看出，内地乳企绝不甘于此，六家乳企的高端奶粉品牌在推介会后立即开始在北上广深等地积极推广营销。
从目前的情况看，国产高端奶粉重整旗鼓的声势很大，但其售价与洋奶粉相比并没有优势，而在品质上又无法迅速赢得消费者的信心，因此短期内可能不会令市场份额发生质的变化。不过从2015年起的长远布局看，随着中央支持力度的加大，以及兼并重组政策的出台，国货逆袭的可能性正在逐步增大。
最后说一句，价格并不是这场市场争夺战的最主要因素，因为没有家长愿意为了图便宜而赌上婴儿的健康。所以，只有最稳定的品质和口口相传的口碑，才是逆袭的关键点。（作者系人民网舆情监测室企业舆情部）
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