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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/21 1:40:41 “Separate“ family second child desire
Xinhuanet, Beijing, November 20 (reporters and and and and Zhou Rui and and Yao Yujie and and Zhou Ting and)-recently, along with "one one-child couples two children can" policy, the "separate" family fertility desires become a hot topic again. Well, in China's 20 million "alone" in the family, how many are willing to birth a second child? Can't do it, can not and for what? How should society what to do for upcoming new population growth?
Different findings, desire for giving birth is equated with actual choices?
Zhai Zhenwu, Dean of school of Renmin University of China population society, population nearly people lead organization of a sample survey, in line with the "alone" second policy about 50% per cent couples willing to their second child. This conclusion is similar to findings on multiple portals, SINA survey conducted a participation of more than 30,000 people, 64.5% of the fertility "second child".
Sample survey of the population sector in Shanghai in 2012, Shanghai in line with the second family policy not many actual fertility, Shanghai resident bearing for an average of 1.2 children born families, about 80% of these families are "double single" family. Changzhou City, population and family planning Commission statistics show that 2011 eligible have reproductive birth mother made it clear to another one, only 26.9%. And 80 's of the last century began a pilot "second package" yicheng, Gansu Jiuquan, Chengde, Hebei, Shanxi, Enshi, Hubei Province and rural areas to the present fertility rates are all less than 1.6.
Zhai Zhenwu said the different findings concluded that the gap is actually because the desire for giving birth does not necessarily translate into reproductive behavior. "Higher reproductive cost of large cities and developed regions, fertility rate is relatively low, this is normal. Policy does not limit, giving residents plenty of choices, but it was really angry, residents can choose for themselves. ”
Nankai University's Institute of population and development, said Professor Li Jianmin, second child's wishes in addition to a difference between urban and rural areas, is not the same in different regions, with ideas and traditions, level of economic development is concerned, carried out in different areas of investigation and trial, the results are not always consistent.
The State family planning Commission, said Wang Peian, Deputy Director of health, launched a separate two-child policy, no timetable for unification of the country, from various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) according to the actual situation, and to establish concrete time. However, time should not be launched throughout the interval is too long.
Population of Nankai University and the Institute for the development of new professors pointed out that if at this stage, the implementation of universal two-child policy in the short term will cause large swings in the birth scene is more severe accumulation of birth, put great strain on essential public services. Fine-tune the adjustment suitable for the progressive, moderate on social economic impact, which is not completely open now generally second reason.
Secrets of fertility desires behind the differentiation
This reporter learned that, births second families, in addition to the traditional "old age", "carry on" utilitarian purposes of sexual reproduction, and many residents are out of "want their children to have a companion," "children bring to life the fun".
Beijing's white-collar Attn said, a second child brings regret and economic burden of course exist in the workplace, but even more important are the personal attitudes, "the family and not the opposite of the workplace relations, you can have both, I enjoy the pleasures and my kids were growing up. ”
He, Hui was doing administrative work "first child", because "another company for my daughter," she and her husband are looking forward to "double single" policy to let go for several years now. He, Hui said, admired buddy himself as a kid, we had brothers and sisters, hoping to make up their own childhood regret for her daughter.
And for reluctance to childbearing families, workplace competition "dare", fertility concepts have emerged "unwilling", and life has become more stressful, "not" is the cause of reduced fertility desires.
In a competitive job market, "not" is a general mentality of many working women. A senior human resources Director told reporters that at the time of recruitment of female staff, employees of companies generally tend to have marriage and childbirth, "I have 98, came in, is about to get married and bear children, working time and efficiency are greatly reduced, ' separate ' let go, recruiting or modify your ask next time think kids need to be accompanied. ”
Growing up in "family planning" for a 70hou after the age, a wide range of lifestyle and decades of family planning policy, have long made their marriage and family values have changed, along with the Dink family popular "than" culture had been accepted by more and more young families.
Effect of bearing another factor to bearing the cost. White-collar Miss Chow his daughter in Shanghai in less than three years old, although in conformity with "separate" conditions of the second child, but high fertility cost her in awe. "Spend from pregnant on began has, each produced seized if wanted to less queued, hanging a special, is 300 yuan once, produced seized plus production Hospital of costs, near 20,000 yuan; please months woman a months 8,000 yuan, holiday also to is double or three times times wage; milk by 250 Yuan/barrels calculation, a years of milk money on almost 10,000 yuan; children didn't people with wanted to sent to young thanks to class, a months at least 2000 Yuan; future if wanted to to children learn a piano or something, interest class expenditures monthly is a large......"
Rainy day community what needs to be done to prepare?
After all, the "alone" policies, the implementation of the second child, born population will inevitably increase. In the education, medical and other quality resources for the tense circumstances, society which prepared for the implementation of this policy?
Experts suggested that the peak fertility, improve the quality of education and health care resource allocation and other aspects, and to deal with the impending arrival of a new population, meanwhile, shared family care costs should also be explored to solve "dare", "can't afford" to worry about.
Wang Peian said that from a national perspective, in line with the "alone" total amount of couples second child before they reproduce conditions are not too large, plus around started to implement the policy will be "time lag" so birth population growth problem does not occur in the short term. For some eligible for larger areas could be taken to advocate proper birth spacing, give priority to older couples before they reproduce individually, before they reproduce, approval to prevent accumulation of birth.
Shanghai University Professor Gu Jun pointed out that birth population growth, but also pay attention to quality education, medical resources rational allocation of resources, hard preventive medical care, kindergarten, school and so on. "Accompanied by a new round of population growth, are closely related to children such as children's hospitals, kindergartens, primary schools in the public social resources deployment, need more departments to create synergy, rainy day in growth is not to be prepared prior to the start of the planning and preparation. ”
Zhai Zhenwu said the crowd mostly urban households will benefit from this policy, coupled with the city's floating population in town the birth and is currently going through the fourth births "small peak" triple, under pressure to raise the city hospital of obstetrics and Gynecology and pediatric resources to improve carrying capacity, is about to become the new normal population growth.
"Is through a financial burden not only to measure the cost of reproduction, is also reflected in the time cost, opportunity cost, energy costs and so on. "Li Jianmin pointed out that fertility levels in China over the years at a 1.5-1.6 level, to raise the fertility rate to 1.8 per cent level, address the worries of young families, through multiple mechanisms, such as by consummating the ancillary system, safeguarding workers ' rights and interests, shared family care costs," for example, companies building their own kindergartens, nurseries and other can significantly reduces the workers tending costs. "
新华网北京11月20日电(“新华视点”记者 周蕊、姚玉洁、周婷玉)近日，伴随着“一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子”的政策指向，“单独”家庭再生育意愿成为人们热议的话题。那么，在中国2000万“单独”家庭中，究竟有多少愿意生育二胎？想生的生不了，能生的不愿生又是为了什么？全社会应如何为即将到来的人口新增长做些什么？
调查结论各不相同，生育意愿是否等同于实际选择？
中国人民大学人口学院社会与人口学院院长翟振武牵头组织的一项样本数近万人的调查显示，符合“单独”二胎政策的夫妇中大约50%－60%愿意生育第二个孩子。这一结论与多个门户网站上的调查结果类似，新浪网进行的一项3万余人参与的调查显示，64.5%的网民愿意生育“二胎”。
但此前上海人口部门2012年进行的抽样调查显示，上海符合二胎政策的家庭实际生育并不多，上海户籍80后家庭的平均生育意愿为1.2个孩子，这些家庭中约有80%是“双独”家庭。常州市人口计生委的统计显示，2011年符合条件的已经生育一胎的妈妈明确表示愿意再生一个的，只有26.9%。而上个世纪80年代开始试点“二胎方案”的山西翼城、甘肃酒泉、河北承德、湖北恩施等地的农村地区到现在生育率也全部低于1.6。
翟振武说，不同的调查结果得出的结论存在差距，其实是因为生育意愿并不一定能转化为生育行为。“大城市和发达地区的生育成本较高，生育率比较低，这都是正常的。政策上不限制，给予了居民充足的选择空间，至于是不是真的生，居民可以自行选择。”
南开大学人口与发展研究所李建民教授说，生二胎的意愿除了在城乡之间有差别，在不同地区也不一样，这与思想观念、传统习惯、经济发展水平都有关系，所以在不同地区进行的调查和试点，结果往往并不一致。
国家卫生计生委副主任王培安说，启动实施单独两孩政策，全国不设统一的时间表，将由各省(区、市)根据实际情况，确定具体时间。但是，各地启动实施的时间不宜间隔得太长。
南开大学人口与发展研究所原新教授指出，如果现阶段就实施普遍两孩政策，短期内将引起出生人口大幅波动，出现较严重的出生堆积，给各项基本公共服务带来很大的压力。微调渐进式的调整适合国情，对经济社会影响适度，这也是不能现在完全放开普遍二胎的原因。
生育意愿分化背后的隐情
记者了解到，愿意生育二胎的家庭不少，除了传统的“养儿防老”“传宗接代”功利性生育目的，不少居民是出于“希望孩子有个伴”“孩子给生活带来乐趣”。
北京白领郝小姐说，二胎带来的职场遗憾和经济负担固然存在，但更重要的还是个人的态度，“家庭和职场并不是对立的关系，可以兼得，我享受和孩子一起成长的乐趣。”
从事行政工作的何慧是“最早一批的独生子女”，因为“想给女儿再生一个做伴”，她和丈夫期待“双独”政策放开已有数年之久。何慧说，小时候自己就很羡慕小伙伴家里有哥哥姐姐，希望能为女儿弥补自己童年的遗憾。
而对于不愿生育的家庭，职场竞争激烈“不敢生”、生育观念业已形成“不愿生”、生活成本的压力大“生不起”，都是降低生育意愿的原因。
在竞争激烈的职场上，“不敢生”是不少白领女性的普遍心态。一位资深的企业人力资源总监告诉记者，在招聘女性新员工时，公司一般倾向于已经婚育的员工，“尤其是已经二十七八的，一进来马上就要结婚生育，工作时间和效率都要大打折扣，‘单独’一放开，下次招聘还得婉转问问觉得孩子需不需要伴。”
对于成长在“计划生育”年代的70后、80后而言，多元化的生活方式和几十年的计划生育政策，早已让他们的婚育乃至家庭观念都发生了改变，伴随着丁克家庭流行的“不愿生”文化也已被越来越多年轻家庭接受。
影响生育意愿的另一因素则是生育成本。上海白领周小姐女儿不到三岁，虽然符合“单独”生二胎的条件，但高昂的生育成本让她望而生畏。“花钱从怀孕就开始了，每次产检若想少排队，挂个特需号就是300元一次，产检加上生产住院的费用，接近2万元；请月嫂一个月8000元，节假日还要算双倍或者三倍工资；奶粉按250元／桶计算，一年的奶粉钱就差不多1万元；孩子没人带想送去幼托班，一个月至少2000元；未来如果想给孩子学个钢琴什么的，兴趣班支出每月又是一大笔……”
未雨绸缪，社会需要做哪些准备？
毕竟，“单独”二胎的政策实施后，出生人口必然会有所增加。在教育、医疗等优质资源原本紧张的现实环境下，社会要为这一政策的实施做哪些准备？
专家建议，应从错峰生育、完善优质教育和医疗资源的配置等多方面着手，应对即将到来的新增人口，同时，还要探索分担家庭的抚育成本，解决“不敢生”“生不起”的后顾之忧。
王培安表示，从全国来看，符合“单独”二胎再生育条件的夫妇总量不是太大，再加上各地启动实施政策会有“时间差”，因此短期内不会出现出生人口大幅增长的问题。对部分符合条件人数较多的地区来说，可以采取倡导合理生育间隔、优先安排年龄较大的单独夫妇再生育、做好再生育审批等，防止出生堆积。
上海大学教授顾骏指出，应对出生人口的增长，还要注重优质教育、医疗资源等资源的合理配置，预防加剧看病难、入园难、升学难等问题。“伴随着新一轮的人口增长，儿童医院、幼儿园、公立小学等与孩子息息相关的社会资源如何调配，需要多部门形成合力，未雨绸缪，在生育未开始前就做好相应的规划和准备。”
翟振武说，此次政策受惠的人群主要集中的城市家庭，再加上城市的流动人口进城生育和我国目前正在经历的第四次人口出生“小高峰”，三重压力下，要提高城市医院的妇产科资源和儿科资源提高承载能力，应对即将成为常态的人口新增长。
“生育成本不仅仅是通过经济负担去衡量的，还体现在时间成本、机会成本、精力成本等多方面。”李建民指出，中国的生育水平多年来维持在1.5－1.6的水平，要将生育率提升到1.8－1.9的水平，解决年轻家庭的后顾之忧，应通过完善配套体系、捍卫职工权益等多重机制，分担家庭的抚育成本，“比如，大型企业自建幼儿园、托儿所等就能极大的降低职工抚育成本”。
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