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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/23 17:19:02 Beijing car Lottery applicants to nearly 2 million， some in prayer
Yesterday, Liu Xiaoming, Director of the city transport authority said car Lottery policy specific measures for the adjustment of the month announced. "A long time makes no" will be considered "a higher probability approach, chances of advanced to shake a little high. ”
Soon, another round of shake, 20th at midnight, individual indicators of passenger car configuration application this month and make sure the extension is more than 1.77 million in October, added 110,000. If not this year, the future situation will be more serious--from next year until 2017, indicators for motor vehicles only to 150,000 units a year, which target individual 88% to only 11,000 per month on average, nearly a less good than it is now.
One up, one down, shaking, became the "merged character" thing, almost 2 million people in the future "race" target of 10,000 "tragic" is not hard to imagine. However, the side of the car was "a long time makes no" who was who, on the other side, there are many "don't know" applicants, expanding the base, increases the difficulty.
Don't buy shake
Shook, there's no harm in-
"Now's not really emergencies, I think you have no urgent need to be involved in a lottery. "For a growing number of lottery applicants, Liu Xiaoming, issued yesterday," admonishment ".
"But who can guarantee that in the rush to use in the car, look to shake it? "Some netizens questioned" Lottery this maybe something not in no hurry with the car, start preparing as soon as possible please? ”
Since the date of lottery systems, checking more difficult, even more difficult. Check rates plummet, plate becomes a recognized form of scarce resources. For those who are in no hurry, wanted no part of buying a car in even the short term, "want" and "need to be" not directly related. Ultimately a Word, shook, no harm anyway, why not?
"Every month, found it, grow in one breath"
Yu Miao (beginning in August 2013 participate in a lottery): I must have been the last three years to buy new ones, because they do not need. I live in remote working day, subway, point to point, very convenient. And the parent is not around, no elderly person in the House, the wife wasn't pregnant, within two or three years and had no intention of having children. Only occasionally shopping for poor tired take a taxi, we jokingly say, "Hey, if you have a car would be nice. "In addition, where there is no car.
I found a lottery and harder this summer, began to worry that when needed without, carried on the application. Shake it, daughter-in-law also pissed with me, saying "you're nuts, what shakes out? "Because she want to save more money and with less cars, particularly don't want to buy a car.
She cast me in the first place, Yes, what shakes out? Look out roads, front street full of parked cars, you're giving me a car, I can't fly, much less know how to stop.
On second thought, which so easily? My colleague and his wife, his father shaking for almost two years with three people, none, I shake it a couple of months? If true, I would buy a used car the cheapest and most broken small Altos, put on the licence, if the bride give up too expensive.
My state of mind, say it was "faggots", shaking, and secretly pray first. They nervously await a month, I found it, grow in one breath. Because the kind of passive, abandon fear loss of character. But now it does not swing? Colleague sad luck ... .... Preferably I shook shook, shook for three years, really need a car, such as, Hey, you then use the savings "personality" to me.
"We all know number plates is a ' good thing '. ”
Inspecting gxmu (beginning in June 2013 participate in a lottery): I think for a long time to come, I will not buy a car. Because I just bought this month, 7,600 Yuan per month in loans. In addition, the down payment is asked hundreds of thousands of relatives and friends to take, even in her hand I could save up some money, or 1.1 to to give people their. For at least the next ten years, eight years, I have to be "Moonlight" State. There is a need, car rental.
Don't look at me "poor", and I also participate in a lottery. Have a colleague who shake with me, he knows my situation, often "hating hate" said, "don't buy a car you'd shake, not tear it? Too many people like you, we can't do it. "I coaxed him," shake you borrow you can borrow. "I thought that you take care of me, why can't rock?
In fact, mainly to be able to rent it out, I, of course, must rent knows friends. While longer "means" give me a month, 500, also a small income? Or worry about car's leadership, lent him first, but also into one.
We all know that plate is a "good thing", and without cost, of course, can apply to the application. Even my own, you don't have to hold it in your hand before making any further plans, there are always other benefits, why do you have to "can be found" make go?
Shake and nothing to buy
No punishment, abandoned, thousands of people a month –
If someone says no rush to buy a car, for pursuing his own interests to consider, with all round wheel, shaking, is "extenuating circumstances", then have "one" successful applicants are not to take advantage of this "sparkling" lucky, you know, it's "hate" in the second half.
Data show that from August 2011, the monthly Lottery void indicators rolled into a lottery pool involved from the beginning again, rolled into the 1401 voided the month indicator. This figure rises gradually, in March last year reached the highest values, 2,682, abandoned. So far this year, abandoning the number has stabilized at about eight hundred or nine hundred per issue.
"For two years may not be a lottery", "three years may not be applied for" or "deposit before the lottery, and not to deduct the" ... ... Shake not for the buyer, and, when people have put forward various proposals, but to this day, in the existing rules of the lottery, using the indicators for those overdue, only as a "waiver", the party will not be subject to any penalty.
"Policy is set, allowing everyone to participate in"
Yang fan (January 2012 to participate in a lottery, shake of the month, abandoning cars): Lottery policy when she first came out, I had a lottery eligibility at that time, we had a car, my son-in-law, usually gave me. I didn't want to shake things all year, a neighbor told me, "you are eligible for a lottery license, why not shake? "I'd like to think so, eyes growing at a lottery, who knows how many people have a lottery in the future? I thought I would try my luck, didn't shake up in the first month.
Just on a roll at that point, people around them say I'm lucky, can you buy a car, family and not cost-effective. Car, buying a car is a cost. Son-in-law, sold on the market, we want to just sell. Results ask for more than three months, and there is no message. My neighbor has a saying I want to rent my number, more than a month to more than 1000 pieces. Use my name to go to buy a car, I hesitated for a while and found it very safe, did not dare to promise. Dragged on for 6 months so hesitant, yellow qualification. It now appears that left, or should I buy a car, more limited next year, wants to buy a car is more difficult.
Said Lottery does not buy you should be punished, I think this is unreasonable, does not mean I deliberately make trouble, was also trying to mind, who was shaking at the thought? Your policy was such that allows everyone to participate in. Family with a lottery number, can you say that these people are punished?
Take a step back and say, you punished too much, it is abandoned, decided not to buy a car, you fine people allowed to buy a car for a few years, could play a role?
"Lottery probability is so low, who does not want to increase their opportunities? ”
Wu Hao (June 2011 to participate in a lottery in June 2012, shake, plates lend): I do not belong to the deliberate disruption of the type, I really wanted to buy a car, but according to my plan, it was two years before. But a lottery which has terrified, trying to buy time to shake, could shake on it? You can only move in advance. Look at my friends, shakes three years still trying to shake more, I thought was reasonable.
Just shake it too early, I'm still not ready yet. When a friend wanted to buy a car, I want to buy, let him use my open, waiting for him to shake, then get back to me.
But now a little embarrassed, he took more than a year, is still not on a roll. Watch will reduce the quota next year, lottery is more difficult. I'm embarrassed to be a good brand, only let us go step by step.
Its unreasonable to say abandoned, mainly not bad participation, is also policy, Lai Yao. You say Lottery probability is so low right now, who are not willing to increase the chance? I know people around me, is made up of families, four of the most dramatic shake. If that happens to be two or three people in a roll, not to give up a number?
Seriously
There is less,
What egg?
Lottery is now the capital city of the people, you should remember a day – December 23, 2010. The day is regulated the number of small passenger cars in Beijing provisional regulations on the implementation of the last day that day, 4S shops all over Beijing is lit up overnight sale; that day, a paper a lottery notification, inspired a Beijing car expensive.
When the media quote buy car mood: "do not buy a car today, I doubt I'll not buy it. "Are not words that sounds exaggerated to chengxiang, now many lingering" curse ".
This story tells it is a easy to understand the rules of the game – cheap and earlier.
A lottery after three years, just repeat of this game – whatever need not demand, while it was "foresight after" quickly launch--rocker Rob indicators for the whole family is nothing more than hit a few keys could not be, rocking to the proceeds is unable to regenerate resources.
This cycle as if the modern fable, taking place in every corner of our society--a lottery for motor vehicles, affordable housing application ... ... Whether it is the beneficiary, victims or bystanders, came to the same conclusion: "there is less, XX eggs. ”
Let people come to such a conclusion, it is for two reasons-people worry about, "maybe one day policy changes" suspect "what he would have exploited."
Motor vehicle a lottery policy changes for three years is proof of that: three years ago, the "limited number" without warning, and three years later, the "reduction targets" abrupt; another two years, maybe also "license plate-for-parking" – If you have to start the whole family rocking to a licence, congratulations, and made a profit. (Respondents in this article is not his real name)
Writer Wei Jing Wu Nan
Illustration sungkai
昨日，市交通委主任刘小明表示，小汽车摇号政策调整具体办法月底公布。对于“久摇不中”者，将考虑“给予一个概率更高的办法，先进来的摇中的几率高一些。”
又一轮摇号在即，截至20日零时，本月个人小客车配置指标申请和确认延期者已超过177万，比10月新增11万。如果今年中不了，未来的形势将更为严峻——从明年起至2017年，每年的机动车指标仅为15万辆，其中88%的个人指标平均到每月仅1.1万个，比现在足足要少近万个。
一升一降中，摇号成了最“拼人品”的事情，将来近200万人“角逐”1万指标的“惨烈”也不难想象。然而，一边是要用车却“久摇不中”的人急得跳脚，另一边，还有不少“没想好”的申请者，扩大着基数、增加着难度。
不买也去摇
先摇着，反正没坏处——
“现在真不是急用车的，我想你也不用急于非要参与摇号。”对于越来越多的摇号申请者，刘小明昨日发出如此“规劝”。
“可谁能保证在着急用车的时候一下就能摇中呢？”有网友提出质疑，“摇号这种说不准的事儿，不就得趁不急着用车，尽早开始准备吗？”
自摇号制度实行之日起，中签便越来越难、难上加难。一路走低的中签率，令号牌越发成为一种公认的稀缺资源。对于那些不着急用车，甚至中短期内压根就没有买车打算的人们而言，如今“想不想要”已经和“需不需要”没有直接关系了。归根结底一句话，先摇着，反正没坏处，为什么不？
“每个月发现没中，长出一口气”
于淼(2013年8月开始参与摇号)：最近三年我肯定是不买车的，因为不需要啊。我住的地方不偏远，平时上班都是地铁点对点，很方便。而且父母不在身边，家里没有老人，媳妇没怀孕，两三年内也不打算要小孩。只有偶尔逛街累了又不好打车，我们才会开玩笑地叹口气说，“哎，要是有辆车就好了。”除此之外，真是没有用车的地方。
今年夏天我发现摇号越来越难了，开始担心以后需要的时候没有，就进行了申请。因为摇号这事儿，媳妇还跟我发火了，说“你有病啊，万一摇中了怎么办？”因为吧，她想多存点钱，又觉得用不到车，特别不想买车。
一开始她把我说蒙了，是啊，摇中了怎么办？看看外面那路况，楼前马路边都停满了车，你现在给我一辆车，我都没法开，更不知道怎么停。
可又一想，哪那么容易中啊？我同事和他老婆、他爸三个人一起摇了快两年，一个都没中，我摇这几个月就中了？万一真中了，我就买一辆最便宜最破的二手小奥拓，先把牌照上了搁着，要是媳妇还嫌费钱就放弃呗。
我的心态吧，说出来挺“欠揍”的，摇着号，又暗暗祈祷自己先别中。每月人家紧张地期待着，我是发现没中，长出一口气。因为中了还真是挺被动的，放弃又怕损失人品。可现在不摇？看看同事那悲惨的运气……最好是我就这么摇着摇着，摇了三年，等真的需要车了，哎，你再用积蓄的“人品”给我中一个。
“大家都知道号牌是个‘好东西’。”
高枫(2013年6月开始参与摇号)：我估计未来很长一段时间，我都不会买车的。因为就这个月我刚买了房，每月要还7600块的贷款。除此之外，首付里有几十万都是问亲戚朋友借的，就算手里还能攒点积蓄，也要拿去一点一点还给人家。今后至少十年八年，我都得是“月光”的状态。实在有需要，就租车吧。
别看我这么“穷”，我也参加摇号了。有个同事跟我一起摇，他知道我的情况，经常“恨恨”地说，“不买车你还摇，这不是捣乱么？就你们这样的人太多我们才中不上。”我就哄他，“摇中了借你用借你用。”心里想，你管我呢，凭啥不能摇啊？
其实我摇号主要为了能租出去，当然了，得租给知根知底的朋友。人家再“意思意思”，每月给我500、800的，不也是一点收入么？或者有着急用车的领导，先借给他用，还能落个人情。
大家都知道号牌是个“好东西”，又没有成本，当然能申请就去申请了。就算我自己用不着，握在手里再做打算，总是有别的益处，何必要“高风亮节”让出去呢？
摇中也不买
无惩罚，每月弃号近千人——
如果说不急于买车的人，出于追求自身利益的考虑，跟着大伙儿一轮轮地摇着号还算“情有可原”，那么已经“百里挑一”的中签者却不去充分利用这“闪闪发光”的幸运，才真真是“拉仇恨”的节奏。
数据显示，从2011年8月起，每月的摇号开始有作废指标滚入摇号池参与重新分配，当月滚入1401个作废指标。这一数字逐渐升高，在去年3月达到最高值，产生2682个弃号。而今年以来，每期的弃号一直稳定在八九百左右。
“两年不得摇号”、“三年不得申请”、“摇号前交押金，摇中不买要扣除”……对于摇中不买者，官方、民间曾提出过各种建议，但直至今日，在现行的摇号规则中，对那些逾期未使用的指标，仅视为“自动放弃”，当事人并不会受到任何处罚。
“政策定的就是这样，允许大家参与”
杨帆(2012年1月参与摇号，当月摇中，放弃购车)：摇号政策刚出来的时候，我就有摇号资格，当时家里有一辆车，是我女婿的，平时给我开。我也没想着摇号的事，都是过了一年了，有一次邻居跟我说，“你有驾照符合摇号资格，干吗不摇一个？”我想想也是，眼瞅着摇号的人越来越多了，谁知道这今后得有多少人摇号？我想那我也试试运气吧，没想到第一个月就摇上了。
刚摇上那会儿，周边人都说我运气好，可你说买车吧，家里人又觉得不合算。本来也有车开，再买车又是一笔开销。当时女婿说，市面上有能卖号的，我们就想干脆把号卖了得了。结果打听了三个多月，也没有信儿。我邻居也有个说要租我的号，一个月给1000多块。用我的名字去上牌买车，我犹豫了一阵，觉得这事也不太安全，没敢答应。就这么犹豫着拖了6个月，把资格拖黄了。现在看来，当时还是应该买个车把号留下，明年限制更多了，想买个车更难了。
说摇号不买就应该惩罚，我觉得这个不合理，也不是说我就故意捣乱，当时也是想尝试的心态，谁想到就一下摇中了？再说你政策定的就是这样，允许大家参与。一家子一起摇号的多了，能说这些人都罚么？
退一步说，你罚也没什么用，本来弃号就是决定不买车了，你罚人家几年内不许买车，能起到什么作用？
“摇号概率这么低，谁不愿意多增加自己机会？”
武浩(2011年6月参与摇号，2012年6月摇中，将车牌借给他人使用)：我不属于故意捣乱的类型啊，我摇号是真想买车，不过按我的计划，是过两年才买。但摇号哪有谱儿啊，等想买时候再摇，还能摇上么？所以只能提前就摇。看看我身边的朋友，摇三年还没摇上的多了，我这想法再合理不过了。
只不过摇上得太早，我钱还没准备好呢。那时候正好有个朋友想买车，我就想让他先用我的号买了开着，等他摇中了，再把号还给我。
不过现在情形有点尴尬，他又摇了一年多了，还是没有摇上。眼看着明年就要减少名额了，摇号更难了。这时候我也不好意思跟人家要牌啊，只能走一步看一步吧。
要说弃号的不合理，主要不赖参与的，还是赖摇号政策。你说现在摇号概率这么低，谁不愿意多增加机会？我身边认识的人，都是全家出动，最夸张的四个人摇号的都有。那要是碰巧两三个人都在一期摇中了，可不得放弃一个号？
较真
有便宜不占，
什么蛋？
如今京城摇号的人们，都应该记得一个日子——2010年12月23日。那一天，是《北京市小客车数量调控暂行规定》执行前最后一天；那一天，全北京市的4S店灯火通明，通宵售车；那一天，一纸摇号通知，引得京城车贵。
彼时有媒体引述买车人的心情：“今天不买车，我怀疑我这辈子都买不到了。”未承想听来有些夸张的话语，如今成了许多人挥之不去的“诅咒”。
这个故事告诉人们一个浅显的游戏规则——有便宜要占，而且得早占。
之后摇号三年，只是这一游戏规则的重演——甭管有需求没需求，趁着还有人“后知后觉”，赶紧发动全家人抢个指标——摇不到无非是多敲了几下键盘，摇到了，收益就是无法再生的资源。
这一轮回恍若现代寓言，发生在我们这个社会的各个角落——机动车摇号、保障房申请……无论是得利者、受害者还是旁观者，都会得出一样的结论：“有便宜不占，××蛋。”
让老百姓得出如此结论，无非是两个原因——人们担心“没准哪一天政策又变了”，怀疑“凭什么他就能钻空子”。
机动车摇号政策的三年变迁证明了这一点：三年前，“限号”毫无征兆；三年后，“减少指标”又突如其来；再过两年，兴许还要“以车位换车牌”——如果你已经发动全家摇到了牌照，恭喜你，又赚到了。(本文受访者为化名)
主笔 魏婧 吴楠
插图 宋溪
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