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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/23 17:25:38 The Beijing Transportation Research Center
Adjusted cars cars will be published later this month in Beijing lottery regulations, the new programme will be formally implemented starting in January next year. Yesterday, Liu Xiaoming, Director of the Beijing Transportation Committee visit the city administration radio urban zero distance programs revealed that advanced into a lottery pool will increase the checking ratio of applicants. In addition, indicators of electric vehicles will be assigned through the register for the lottery, over quota after the lottery.
Initiatives
Lottery increases the success rate
At present, more than 1.7 million people have been fighting for the purchase index, which a lot of people involved in a lottery takes a long time. New lottery policy next year, by then a lottery will reach 130:1. Liu Xiaoming, Director of the city transport authority said, some have suggested that the family unit a lottery, some suggest to start a lottery incentives, recommendations, took out some auctions, in this regard, the transport sector are studied.
Liu Xiaoming said that let people in a lottery of bigger success probability, reasonable legal compliance, taking into account this requirement, the transportation sector combined with the issues will be adjusted next year. However, checking, does not mean that is sure to shake, but at least from the psychological point of view, policy has consider the situation of these people.
Restriction of restricted by "the replacement"
At present there are 5.4 million motor vehicles in Beijing, increased 2.5% the road increased 1% per cent is not easy. Liu Xiaoming said the Government hopes to solve the problem by adjusting the structure. "I never let people owned, are slow-owned processes. ”
Liu Xiaoming said that "sales, limit lines" are interim policy for a short time, "3 years, 5 years, or how much time depends on Beijing's overall traffic, environmental and other developments", you can say with certainty that, over time, this policy would be "changes", switching to a better legal and economic means. Singapore licence right to use only 8 years, with roughly 400,000 yuan, 8 years after the licence expired. At present, the Singapore annual vehicle growth rate 0.5%.
Liu Xiaoming, believed that mega-cities like Beijing, regulated by economic means and more fit, Singapore is a good success story. He suggested, is not a rainy day the people on the bus, do not rush to blindly participating in a lottery, because costs will certainly increase in the future.
Yesterday, the Beijing traffic development research center, said Guo Jifu, Director at a forum, something stuck to local conditions, stipulating that "restricted", "traffic is very local issues, large urban centers, must be solved by intensification in high density areas, to control the growth in number of cars, but some need cars to meet demand in remote areas". Integrated full range of governance, including technical, economic, legal and administrative means. "Now in many cities adopted administrative measures governing block, can be implemented quickly, but this is not sustainable, because demand did not fundamentally affect the crowd. ”
Impact
Panic a lottery "pit" will not surge
First go to a lottery pool, check likely bigger, does this affect part of car-free people panic for a lottery "pit", in order to avoid later entered at a disadvantage? In this regard, the traffic expert Wang Jiangyan said, shaking the applicant must, within six months after buying a car, if no demand in 35 years in the House, shaking is a waste. So, a panicked into a lottery pool should not be given to more people.
Wang Jiangyan also pointed out that Government refers to raise the proportion of early entrants, but not that early entrants can be indicators. After all, there are already a lot of dishes, and check the probability is very low, so even for the first person to be driven, there will not be too great, this should have little impact. "I think this kind of adjustment is a response of the Government to the people's high voice. ”
Ask
1 "shake" fair
Traffic experts said Wang Jiangyan, lottery policy was implemented in 3 years, there have been many long makes no applicants, can you distinguish for people who have just entered? Public calls for ideas continuously, from a fairness perspective, go into a lottery pool are waiting longer increases, because their success rate is reasonable.
Lottery more likely got car purchase index, this late into the people fair? Wang Jiangyan believes that increase the probability first lottery check, does not mean that he needed more than rear, car, this has nothing to do with urgency. "I think anyone who is more urgently needed, of course, do not rule out kids with old people and people without a car than to single the more urgent need, depending on how the buyers ready to purchase conditions. "Wang Jiangyan said that measures just a lottery would wait will be even longer, so more chance checking.
In addition, those late lottery could be shortly because of work does not meet the economic conditions, or there is no willingness to purchase, do not even have parking conditions and other reasons, after he qualified to participate in a lottery to be normally, therefore, unfair to the rear is not entirely correct.
Chang said Duan Liren, a Professor, improve checks than into a lottery pool of applicants, can wait for more people to get the fair. But this still does not resolve the rigid demand of the public, consistently across different populations in need in a lottery pool is not scientific, the Government should be subdivided for different groups.
2 Why can't I press home lottery
Previously raised by many experts in family for a lottery. In this regard, Liu Xiaoming, said it is still hard to legally define a family. The groundwork and civil affairs, public security departments database is not particularly strong, plus the divorce judgment, external factors such as population, auditing difficulties.
Road Transport Association Secretary-General Wang Limei, China believes that buying family-a lottery, because buying homeowner spouse status register, while the vehicle is not in family conducted a lottery for difficult, but not impossible.
The biggest difficulty is the definition of family, lottery, family, domicile, marriage, to consider all factors such as vehicle registration, housing, in two generations generation units? Minors and whether parents should be covered? Families with elderly people how to count? 500duowanliang already correspond to the corresponding family is a very complex process, related to the DMV, Department of Civil Affairs and other departments, not the traffic of one sector can solve. Difficult to distinguish the level of demand from the new cars available from stock on hand, such as a names can only be registered on one car.
3 quit again after a lottery how to count
Since the lottery policy since its introduction, successful increases the difficulty. Many people keep to the "change of luck" idea, apply again choose to exit the lottery pool. Increased probability after the implementation of the policy of the first wave of the future, these "change, playing" the applicant is "old man" is a new applicant?
Department of transportation, which applicants meet the appropriate increase chance checking policy will be announced in the month. However, say one for each applicant's ID card, driving license code, even after checking out, or if encoding is not checked out one for re-entry into the remains, a lottery system extraction successful applicants according to the encoding, so the time encoded updated into a lottery pool in the odds are calculated.
Other
Electric car a lottery to see if more than 20,000 cars
2017 in Beijing to keep the stock of motor vehicles up to 6 million vehicles, cars indicators will be reduced from 240,000 to 150,000 next year 2016 cars indicators will be reduced to 90,000 passenger cars. The number of pure electric cars will increase year by year, to 20,000 units next year, in 2016 will reach 60,000 units. Liu Xiaoming said that buying electric cars need not be a lottery this year, but next year to buy a lottery of electric vehicles was changed, when applicants are below the target of 20,000, is not required to shake, shake, after a total of over 20,000 is needed. Will publish the related specific registration policies by the end of this month, will be registered on the Internet.
The sales prospects for electric vehicles, experts disputed. Some claim that electric cars limited to short, regular charging, charging set into big problems. Batteries have a certain life span and replace the battery needs a lot of cost, and General Electric little price advantage.
Some experts believe that pure electric vehicle energy saving and environmental protection, charging fees are cheaper than oil. With the promotion of electric vehicle battery technology, will continue to lower prices, increased sales.
Guess
How to improve roll odds check
Some academics have raised speculation from a mathematical perspective, in terms of time, and can be distinguished by year, groups checking that a year earlier than the above groups next year. Can also follow months last month for groups check than the above groups next month.
≫> force distribution method
Rock groups receive more indicators
A lottery system was divided into three parts at the same time. Supposed to be a lottery year is divided into 3 regions, in 2011, 2012, 2013, to shake out a 1000 indicators in total. In the allocation of targets, 2011 to participate in a lottery groups can assigned to 500 targets 2012 groups can assigned to 300 indicators 2013 groups can assigned to 200 indicators, a lottery among the different groups, resulting in the total number of indicators.
Of course, regional monthly Lottery can be divided into 36, can also be distributed proportionately among the diverse groups of indicators.
≫> weighing the specific gravity method
Increased rocker occurrences
Computer to set up a lottery system, which adopts the randomly selected numbers. Supposed to be a lottery year is divided into 3 regions, in 2011, 2012 and 2013. When the computer randomly selected numbers, set 2013 number 1, 2012 the number appears 2 times, number appears 3 times in 2011, 2011 number of occurrences of the largest draw likely will naturally increase.
Of course, a lottery can also by month is divided into 36 areas and number of occurrences of other settings can be made.
People's daily reporter Huang Hailei
(Original title: buying a lottery will increase the success rate in long)
北京本月底将公布调整后的小客车购车摇号实施细则，新方案将从明年1月起正式实施。昨天，北京市交通委主任刘小明做客城市管理广播城市零距离节目时透露，对于先进入摇号池的申请者将提高中签比率。此外，电动车摇号将先通过报名方式分配指标，超过指定额后需摇号。
◎举措
先摇号者增中签率
目前，已有170多万人在争夺购车指标，其中不少人参与摇号时间很长。明年启用新摇号政策，届时摇号比例将达到130：1。市交通委主任刘小明表示，有市民建议以家庭为单位摇号，有的建议给先摇号者一些激励措施，有的建议拿出一些指标拍卖，对此，交通部门都进行了研究。
刘小明说，让先摇号的市民中签概率大些，合情合理合规合法，考虑到市民这方面要求，交通部门结合各方意见将在明年做适当调整。不过，提高中签比例，不代表肯定能摇中，但至少从心理上来说，政策已经考虑到这部分人的状况。
限购限行将被“置换”
目前北京有540万辆机动车，年增2.5%，而道路年增1%到2%就很不容易。刘小明表示，政府希望通过调整结构来解决问题。“不是不让大家拥有车辆，是延缓拥有车辆的进程。”
刘小明说，“限购、限行”都是短时间临时政策，“是3年、5年，还是多少时间，要看北京的整体交通、环境等发展变化情况”，可以肯定地说，过一段时间这个政策会被“置换”出来，改用更好的法律、经济手段。如新加坡一个牌照只有8年使用权，费用约在40万元人民币，8年后牌照失效。目前，新加坡年机动车增长率0.5%。
刘小明认为，像北京这样的特大城市，用经济手段调控和运用更适合，新加坡就是不错的成功案例。他建议，现在不急用车的人，不要急于盲目参与摇号，因为将来使用成本肯定会提高。
昨天，北京交通发展研究中心主任郭继孚在出席一个论坛时表示，治堵要因地制宜，不能一刀切地“限”，“交通是非常地域化的问题，大城市中心区、高密度区域一定要靠集约化方式解决，要控制小汽车数量增长，但一些偏远地区需要小汽车满足出行需求”。要进行综合全方位治理，包括技术、经济、法律、行政等手段。“目前中国许多城市采用行政手段治堵，见效很快，但这是不可持续的，因为没从根本上影响需求人群。”
◎影响
恐慌性摇号“占坑”不会激增
先进入摇号池，中签的几率更大，这是否会影响部分无购车打算的人也恐慌性进行摇号“占坑”，以免晚进入吃亏？对此，交通专家王江燕表示，摇中后申请者必须在半年内买车，如果家里在三五年内无购车需求，摇中也是浪费。所以，恐慌性进入摇号池的人不会特别多。
王江燕同时指出，政府提到要提高早进入者的比重，但并不是说早进入者一定能得到指标。毕竟目前已经有很大的盘子，而且中签概率已经降至很低，所以，即便对先到者有所偏重，也不会有太大的比例，这种影响应该不大。“我认为这样的调整，只是政府对民众高呼声的一种回应。”
◎追问
1 “先摇者易得”是否公平
交通专家王江燕表示，摇号政策实施3年来，出现了很多久摇不中的申请者，是否能对这些人与刚进入的人进行区分？公众对此想法的呼声不断，从公平性角度讲，先进入摇号池的人等的时间更久，所以提高他们的中签率是合理的。
先摇号更容易拿到购车指标，这对于晚进入的人是否公平？王江燕认为，提高先摇号者的中签概率，不代表他比后摇号者更急需汽车，这与是否急需无关。“我认为没有谁比谁更急需，当然不排除有孩子有老人而且没有车的人，要比单身的有车族更急需，这取决于购车者是否具备购车条件。”王江燕说，该措施只是因为先摇号者等的时间更长，所以中签几率要更大。
另外，那些晚摇号者可能是因工作不久不具备经济条件，或者没有购车意愿，甚至不具备停车条件等原因，在他具备条件后再参与摇号也属正常，所以说，对后摇号的人不公平的说法不完全正确。
长安大学教授段里仁表示，提高先进入摇号池申请者中签比，可以让等待更久的人得到相应公平。但这仍然不能解决刚性市民的需求问题，将不同需求的人群放在统一摇号池中是不科学的，政府应该对不同群体进行细分。
2 为何不能按家庭摇号
此前不少专家提出以家庭为单位进行摇号。对此，刘小明表示，现在还很难从法律上界定家庭。而且民政、公安部门数据库的基础工作还不是特别充分，再加上离婚判决、外来人口等因素，审核有一定困难。
中国道路运输协会秘书长王丽梅认为，购房能以家庭为单位摇号，是因为购房时房主登记了配偶状况，而车辆没有，所以以家庭为单位进行摇号有一定难度，但并不是无法实现的想法。
目前最大的难度是对家庭的界定，若以家庭为单位摇号，需考虑户籍、婚姻、车辆登记、房屋所有等因素，以两代人还是一代人为单位？未成年人与父母是否应属于一家？家中有老人该如何算？让已有的500多万辆车对应相应家庭是非常复杂的过程，涉及车管所、民政局等多个部门，不是交通委一个部门能解决的。如难从新增车上区分需求程度，可从存量上下手，比如一人名下仅能登记一辆车。
3 退出后再次摇号如何算
自摇号政策实施以来，中签难度逐渐增大。不少市民抱着“换换手气”的想法，选择先退出摇号池再重新申请。未来先摇者提高概率政策实施后，这些“换手气”的申请者算“老人”还是新申请者？
交通部门表示，具体哪些申请者符合适当提高中签几率的政策，将在月底公布。不过，相关人士表示，每个申请者的身份证、驾驶证只对应一个编码，即便是中签后退出，或者未中签退出再进入仍是对应一个编码，摇号系统根据编码来抽取中签者，所以按照编码最新进入摇号池的时间计算的可能性大。
◎其他
电动车摇号要看是否超两万辆
北京市2017年要将机动车保有量控制在600万辆以内，明年小客车指标将从24万辆减少到15万辆，2016年普通小客车指标将减少至9万辆。纯电动小客车的数量将逐年增加，明年为2万辆，2016年将达到6万辆。刘小明说，今年买电动车不需摇号，但明年购买电动车摇号政策有所改变，当申请人低于设定的2万辆时不需摇号，总量超过2万后则需要摇号。本月底会发布相关具体登记政策，将会是在网上登记。
对于电动车的销售前景，专家存有争议。一些观点认为，电动车续航里程短，需经常充电，充电桩设置成大问题。电池使用有一定寿命，更换电池需不少费用，普通电动车价格优势不大。
也有专家认为，纯电动车节能环保，充电费用比用油便宜。随着电动车电池技术的提升，价格会不断降低，销量会呈渐增态势。
猜想
如何提高先摇者中签几率
有学者从数学角度提出猜想，从时间上分，可按年区分，即上年群体中签比高于下年群体。也可以按照月分，上月群体中签比高于下月群体。
>>强制分布法
先摇者群体得到更多指标
摇号系统分为三个部分同时进行。假设将摇号者按年分为3个区域，2011年、2012年、2013年，总共要摇出1000个指标。在分配指标时，2011年参与摇号的群体可以分配到500个指标，2012年群体可分配到300个指标，2013年群体可分配到200个指标，不同群体之间各自摇号，最后形成总的指标数量。
当然，摇号者可以将区域按月分为36个，也可以按比例分配不同群体之间的指标。
>>权衡比重法
增先摇者出现次数
计算机只设定一种摇号系统，即采用随机抽取编号的方式。假设将摇号者按年分为3个区域，2011年、2012年以及2013年。在计算机随机抽取号码时，设定2013年的编号出现1次，2012年的编号出现2次，2011年的编号出现3次，这样2011年的编号出现的次数最多，被抽到的几率自然就会增加。
当然，摇号者也可以按月分为36个区域，编号出现的次数也可以进行其他设定。
京华时报记者 黄海蕾
(原标题：购车摇号久不中将增中签率)
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