Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2013/11/26 9:03:20 One or two tier “overweight“ regulation， or local market next year to cool
"Introduction to" wave accelerate spread to second-tier cities property market regulation and policy to up the ante, Shenyang, Xiamen, Nanchang, have drafted property measures.
Authorities wide nets Beijing November 26, according to the economic voice of the financial authorities wide financial review reported that Wuhan property market regulation and policy tightening, opened the prelude to the escalation of the second-tier city regulation, very soon, this wave of second-tier cities to tighten policy spread to more second-tier cities. Yesterday (25th), Shenyang, Xiamen, Nanchang property market regulation and new policies were introduced.
Shenyang announced nine new policies. Under the new deal, Shenyang residents ' families to apply for loans to buy second homes, commercial loans and loan fund raising downpayments to 65%, and increase the supply of medium and small sized and ordinary commodity housing market. Nanchang issued a "Chang six", includes "further raising downpayments of second homes, loans, is prohibited to minors to purchase housing, clearly requires that non-Hukou households buying in the local conditions, which offers paid personal income tax or social security contributions proof of age from 1 year to 2 years in a row. Xiamen yesterday unveiled "six", implemented from today, require a second home down payment ratio shall not be less than 70%.
On October 23, in Beijing to increase the supply of residential housing, "Beijing's seven", the industry generally believe that, although the policy it has been over a month now, but the effect is not obvious. So, second-tier cities policy tightening in the blowing of the wind, would achieve what productive, you also need time to verify.
Further to the North after the Guangzhou-Shenzhen, Wuhan, Nanchang, Shenyang, Xiamen is also tightening regulation. Consists of four cities set off a new round of regulation seems to be accelerating spread to second-tier cities. Wuhan introduction the new deal a few days later, Shenyang, Xiamen, Nanchang, followed suit, speed is somewhat surprising. Now, the distance was ended only a month this year. Several second-tier cities one after another these days to tighten, and for what reason?
Shanghai real estate economic voices contributing commentator Vice President Yang Hongxu thought there are two main reasons. First of all, these cities home prices rose more in front, first-tier cities in October, overall gains were more than 20%, several other cities also have an integer between 10% in these cities are high, completed in March of this year's national target difficult, so the pressure on local government. Second, plenary session, though not regulated prices, but it is regulated according to local conditions, urban housing prices high is regulated, so come out and said that attitude expressed determination.
Three cities announced yesterday the main points of the new deal, Shenyang residents loans to buy second homes, raised downpayments to 65%, Nanchang requiring non-domicile residents pay the local taxes or social insurance payment period up to 2 years, Xiamen require a second home down payment ratio shall not be less than 70%. Yang Hongxu, respectively, which rolled out in several cities of the new policy tightening is not very large, compared to first-tier cities as a whole is similar to or slightly weak point.
Now you are concerned, this regulation upgrades will continue to provide more second-tier cities, as well as three or four lines of urban sprawl. Yang Hongxu believes that this regulation upgrades were dominated by second-tier cities to expand, but not too much, generally ranked among the top 20 per cent of cities in the country, may also follow. As regards the three-wire, four-wire city, because of the weakness of the recovery in the property market recovery, so it expanded to three or four cities on a massive scale.
Also it is said that although the spread of a new round of regulation to second-tier cities, but the differentiation of policies likely to occur because of local circumstances, such as Xuzhou came "loose" control message. Said Yang Hongxu, greater incidence of the case. When in August, Wenzhou has been on restriction of the system to relax. Although there is no sharp rise in prices of the real, Central made no comment, but depending on your heating and cooling of the property market, house prices rose, all the different distinctions, as even some second-tier cities of Xuzhou, it is possible to slightly or moderately relaxed restriction policies.
When it comes to property market regulation policy in many cities, people often focus on second home downpayments. Currently highest downpayments of second homes has to 70%, Yang Hongxu believed that this was done in order to tighten the two suites. Because of China's real estate is still good assets, and we don't think that China's home prices have slumped, triggering the financial crisis increases, because second home down payment is primarily the demand for property market regulation, not in order to guard against financial risks.
Yang Hongxu pointed out that so far this year, house prices have been going up, one or two tier large gains, now central made no comment, but actually tighten, go on like this, these cities housing temperature may undergo a high and volatile over the next year may lead to local small decline, falling mainly refers to the volume, especially the drop in temperature. Rose from up to down, and also need to observe. Yang Hongxu thought, late next year or in 2015, housing prices in some cities rose appears motionless or so-called fell, but not a crash-crash.
Yang Hongxu, residential needs such as marriage classes, demolition, is still thinking about buying a House. In some second-tier and third-tier cities, because prices increase is unlikely, even cool, there is little in these cities without special consideration short-term fluctuations in the property market.
Yang Hongxu said that from an investment perspective, does not suggest that we are currently in first-tier cities to buy a House. Because timing is one of the best last year, last year was a new phase of market support means, has peaked this year, coupled with regulatory upgrade, first-tier cities property market could be cooled. Residential demand, could still be considered, but investment demand may wish to wait to see, not to be so worried.
(Original title: one or two tiers "overweight" controlling or partial cooling of the property market next year _fin)
【导读】楼市调控政策加码浪潮加速向二线城市蔓延，沈阳、厦门、南昌纷纷出台楼市新政。
央广网财经北京11月26日消息 据经济之声《央广财经评论》报道，武汉收紧楼市调控政策，拉开二线城市调控升级的序幕，很快，这股二线城市收紧政策的浪潮向更多二线城市蔓延开来。昨天（25日）晚上，沈阳、厦门、南昌也出台了楼市调控的新政策。
沈阳公布九条新政策。根据新政，沈阳居民家庭申请贷款购买第二套住房，商业贷款和公积金贷款首付比例提高到65%，同时加大中小户型普通商品住房市场供应。南昌发布了“昌六条”，内容包括“进一步提高第二套住房贷款的首付比例，严禁未成年人购买住房，明确要求非当地户籍居民家庭购房的条件，也就是提供缴纳个人所得税或社会保险缴纳证明的年限，由连续1年调整到2年。厦门市也在昨天出台了“六条”意见，从今天开始实施，要求第二套住房首付款比例不得低于70%。
10月23日，北京出台以增加自住型商品房供应的“京七条”，业界普遍认为，虽然政策出台已经一个多月了，但效果并不明显。那么，二线城市在刮起收紧政策之风，会取得什么样的成效，还需要时间来验证。
继北上广深之后，武汉、南昌、沈阳、厦门也收紧调控。由四个一线城市掀起的新一轮调控，似乎正在加速向二线城市蔓延。武汉出台新政还没几天，沈阳、厦门、南昌就跟上来了，速度之快有些出人意料。现在，距离今年结束只有一个多月了。几个二线城市这几天接连收紧政策，出于什么原因？
经济之声特约评论员、上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭认为主要有两个方面的原因。首先，这些城市的房价涨幅比较靠前，一线城市10月份总体涨幅是20%以上，其他几个城市也都在10%到17%之间，这些城市都偏高，完成今年3月份制定的国家调控目标有一定难度，所以地方政府有压力。第二，三中全会虽然没有调控房价，但这是因地制宜的进行调控，房价高位的城市就要调控，所以要站出来表明态度，表明决心。
三个城市昨天公布新政的要点，沈阳居民贷款购买第二套住房首付比例提高到65%，南昌要求非当地户籍居民缴纳个税或社保缴年限提高到2年，厦门要求第二套住房首付款比例不得低于70%。杨红旭表示，分别来看，这几个城市出台的新政策，收紧的力度并不是很大，整体跟一线城市比较类似，或者略弱一点。
现在大家关心的是，这一轮调控升级会不会继续向更多的二线城市乃至三四线城市蔓延。杨红旭认为，这一轮调控升级还是以二线城市扩大为主，但数量不会太多，基本上在全国涨幅排名前20的城市，可能还会跟进。至于三线、四线城市，因为这次楼市的回暖复苏力度偏弱，所以不可能大规模地扩展到三四线城市。
也有人说，虽然新一轮调控向二线城市蔓延，但是政策可能会因为各地情况不同出现分化，比如徐州就传出了“松绑”调控的消息。杨红旭说，出现这种情况的可能性比较大。在8月份的时候，温州就已经对限购制度放松了。这次虽然并不存在房价大幅上涨的现实，因此中央没有表态，但地方根据自己的楼市冷暖情况，房价涨幅的大小，做不同的区别对待，像徐州甚至一些二线城市，有可能小幅或适度地放松限购政策。
很多城市在出台楼市调控的政策后，大家经常会关注第二套房的首付比例。目前二套房的首付比例最高已经到70%了，杨红旭认为，这样做的目的是为了收紧二套房。因为中国的房产依然是优质资产，而且大家也不认为中国的房价会出现大幅下滑，从而引发金融危机，所以提高第二套房首付比例主要还是出于楼市调控的需求，而不是为了防范金融风险。
杨红旭指出，今年以来，房价一直在涨，一、二线城市涨幅比较大，现在中央没有表态，但实际上已经收紧政策，这样下去，这些城市的楼市温度可能要经历一个高位震荡，到明年可能会出现局部小幅下滑，下滑主要是指量，尤其是温度的下降。至于价格什么时候由涨变跌，还需要观察。杨红旭认为，明年下半年或者2015年，部分城市的房价会出现涨不动或者出现所谓的环比下跌，但并不是一个崩盘式的大跌。
杨红旭表示，自住需求像结婚类、拆迁类，目前还是可以考虑买房子。在某些二线和三线城市，因为房价涨幅也不大，即便降温的话，幅度也是微乎其微，这些城市其实不用特别考虑楼市短期波动。
杨红旭说，从投资角度来讲，不建议大家目前在一线城市买房子。因为去年是一个最好的时机，去年是市场建立保障手段的新阶段，今年已经处于高位了，加上调控升级，一线城市楼市可能也会有所降温。自住性需求的话，依然可以考虑，但投资需求不妨等一等再看，不用这么着急。
（原标题：一二线城市“加码”调控 明年楼市或现局部降温_fin）
赞