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The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/12/1 2:37:27 Talk about hard disk price if there is no Thailand floods two years ago，
Talk about hard drive price: If there is no Thailand floods two years ago-the hard drive prices, hard disk-IT information Talk about hard drive price: If no Thailand two years ago, flood
If there is no October 2011 in Thailand's flood disaster, today's hard drive may be another situation, or at least will be completely different in price. It changed history.
In the 30 years prior to the flood, unit price per GB hard drive capacity is declining steadily, from the earliest of millions of dollars to less than $ 0.1, decline in manufacturing costs are also synchronized. In September 2011, this figure is only US $ 0.044, or 4.4 cents, a few cents.
Online analysis of data provided by the service provider BackBlaze allows us to clearly see what happens the next two years.
$ GB 0.0044 BackBlaze again see this figure was in September 2013, and during the two years they had reached the highest purchase price of us $ 0.064. Looks no much difference, but don't forget the world-wide demand for storage capacity is huge, BackBlaze myself procured some two years 50PB-capacity hard disk, per GB extra 0.02 dollars means additional expenditure of us $ 1 million.
But do you think it's over?
BackBlaze hard drive purchase prices for the calendar year (equivalent to the per GB): the red dotted line if there is no flood forecasting trends
BackBlaze subsequently did more thinking, calculating results under three different scenarios:
- The current situation (Status Quo): ignoring the flood crisis, continue as before, for example, buy the same model from the same manufacturer hard drive regardless of the high and low prices.
- Reality (Reality): calculated based on actual procurement unit GB price.
- History (Historical): if there is no flood crisis, based on historical data unit GB price movements.
If the renewal of historical, may to October 2011 procurement costs just US $ 1.78 million, they actually paid US $ 2.31 million, more for 30%, and if the "dead eye" will cost US $ 2.92 million, a good 64%!
How about you? Shocking, right?
Before the floods, BackBlaze almost exclusively to buy Hitachi 3TB 3.5-inch hard drive (0S03230), the September 2011 bid about US $ 130, equivalent to per GB 0.044 dollars.
In November of that year, the same hard drive for $ 249, GB $ 0.083 per equivalent, rose 88%, and even if the money is hard to get. For the next few months, its price and availability is constantly changing, and eventually disappear.
In October 2012, BackBlaze turning 4TB hard drive. This change will be temporary cost increases in the past, but soon fell back, and this time, it is firm for more than two months, gradually improve until well into 2013.
Then, the nightmare end? Seen from the 4TB hard drive price trend, already and then walked by the 1/1.5/2TB is very similar to the process, so you can rest assured that in the future, hard drive industry will be back on track to move on-if no new surprises.
说说硬盘价格：如果没有泰国两年前的洪水 - 硬盘价格,硬盘 - IT资讯说说硬盘价格：如果没有泰国两年前的洪水
如果没有2011年10月份发生在泰国的那场洪水灾害，今天的硬盘产业可能是另外一种局面，至少价格上会完全不同。正是它改变了历史。
洪水前的30年间，硬盘每GB容量的单位价格持续稳步下滑，从最早的几百万美元一直到不足0.1美元，制造成本自然也是同步下降。2011年9月，这一数字仅为0.044美元，也就是4.4美分，几毛钱的事儿。
在线服务提供商BackBlaze提供的分析数据可以让我们清晰地看到接下来两年发生了什么。
BackBlaze再次看到每GB 0.0044美元这个数字已经是2013年9月的事情了，期间两年他们的最高采购价曾达到0.064美元。看上去差得也不多嘛，但不要忘了全世界需求的存储容量是多么巨大，BackBlaze自己那两年就采购了大约50PB容量的硬盘，每GB多掏0.02美元就意味着100万美元的额外开支。
但是你以为这就完了？
BackBlaze历年硬盘采购价(折合每GB)：红色虚线为如果没有洪水的预测趋势
BackBlaze随后做了更多思考，计算了三种不同情形下的结果：
-现状(Status Quo)：无视洪水危机，继续和以前一样，比如从同一厂商那里购买同型号硬盘而不管价格高低。
-现实(Reality)：根据实际采购情况计算出来的单位GB价格。
-历史(Historical)：如果没有洪水危机，根据历史数据计算的单位GB价格应有的走势。
如果延续历史，2011年10月到2013年9月的采购成本仅为178万美元，实际上他们付出了231万美元，多掏了整整30%，而如果“死心眼”的话将花费292万美元，多了足足64%！
怎么样？触目惊心吧？
洪水之前，BackBlaze几乎只买日立的3TB 3.5寸硬盘(0S03230)，2011年9月时的报价约为130美元，折合每GB 0.044美元。
当年11月，同样的硬盘要249美元，折合每GB 0.083美元，上涨了88%，而且就算有钱也很难买到。接下来的几个月，它的价格和供货情况不断变化，直至最终消失。
2012年10月，BackBlaze开始转向4TB硬盘。以往这种变化会带来临时的成本增加，但很快就会回落，而这一次，它坚挺了两个多月，进入2013年后才逐渐好转。
那么，噩梦彻底结束了么？从4TB硬盘的价格趋势看，已经和当年1/1.5/2TB走过的历程极为相似，因此今后大家可以放心了，硬盘产业将回到原来的轨道上继续前行——如果不再有新的意外的话。
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