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The author:(作者)hpmailerpublished in(发表于) 2013/12/5 11:07:36 Listen to Prime Minister Li keqiang economy _ Sina news
Prime Minister Li keqiang told the economic
On November 9, the IPTV global launch Prime Minister Li keqiang, China's economic open class, course panorama showing Prime Minister Li keqiang on the 16th National Congress of Chinese trade unions to China's economic development situation and future of long-term trends in deep thought and study, hailed as "a vivid economic seminar" (the following are taken from the open class, small titled Xiaokang Magazine Editor's Note added)
Focus on GDP, is in fact focusing on employment
How to understand the current economic situation, need to be put in perspective in the international economic environment. Since the establishment of the new Government, we are faced with the complex economic situation. Features a weak recovery in the world economy, and sluggish growth in many major economies, decades of reform and opening up in our country made great achievements in the process of dealing with the economic crisis, also achieved remarkable results.
In 2010, our double-digit growth, reaching 10.4%, but the four quarters of last year, because of the multiple and complex international and domestic factors affecting economic growth only 7.8%, to the first quarter of this year was 7.7%, was 7.5% in the second quarter.
Why would I want to tell you about GDP? Folks may be asking that we cannot be biased towards GDP. That's a good enough, but after all, we are developing countries, development is fundamental to solve all the problems in our country and also the key. More important, we have focused on GDP, focused on employment. The past, China's GDP growth 1%, will pull about 1 million were employed. After the restructuring of the economy and the development of the service sector shows that there are about 1% GDP growth, pulling 1.3 million to 1.5 million were employed.
"Cycling" trick
Facing the pressures of the economic downturn, what do I do? Steady growth and employment, we have two choices. One option is to increase the deficit, boosting the money supply. Deficits, invoices to promote investment, but to do so, then might be able to work on next year, may cause side effects in the future and, more importantly, is that short-term stimulus is unsustainable. Because our deficit rate is 2.1% per cent of GDP. What is this concept? The EU has set a standard, is the deficit cannot exceed GDP in 3%, of course, many Member States failed to comply with, and exceeded. Everyone knows that there is a European debt crisis, the unemployment rate actually increased, social welfare cannot be guaranteed. As far as currency, our balance of broad M2 measure of money supply is already twice times the GDP. In other words, the "pool" money enough, then it could lead to inflation. As we all know, inflation will not only interfere with or disrupt the market, prices of the main signal is, and will give significant side effects and pressure on the people's lives and even panic.
The second option, is to keep does not increase the deficit, monetary policy is neither relaxed nor tighten the purse strings. This requires us to maintain constant force, stabilization policies. Some comrades may say, it is not as, as long as the freeze up? It can not, if you don't move, just like riding a bicycle, parked around the two circled, maybe just fell. So had to move, steady improvement, which is central to determine the overall tone. There must also be stable.
That would govern "refuse to stay idle hands"
How stable are you? Then it's innovation of macro-control, according to the changing situation and adopt effective, targeted measures. We generally take a few.
First, depth, effort to free the huge dividends of reform. 18 the second plenum of the national meetings this year, we proposed the decentralization as well as streamlining, but also to transform government functions, there is much behind in it can be done. As we all know, there are so-called "two hands" invisible market hand, visible hand of the Government. Some people in the Community said the Government is "visible hands" into "refuse to stay idle hands", everything going for approval. You've probably seen on TV, someone had painted a picture of approval "a long March", when there is much to cover more than 100 multiple chapters to make something. One Minister told me, said he received a letter of complaint, sent down to investigate, is also true. A study in Beijing University student, came home after graduation, a small town in the central region, he wants to own businesses. Doing? Inside, he felt that the County make it a little more culture, wanted to run a bookstore, had probably borrowed from their parents and relatives of the more than 200,000 yuan, and ran three or four months, covered more than more than 20 official seals, finally ran down. Finally rented a shop, and then began to be examined. Some law enforcement officials there, said glass, you store the wrong colour, lights up the streets of light pollution, you have to change. Young man said I have no money to do the bookstore, law enforcement officials say no money, books, touched on dozens of books left. What is there in his book that "yellow non-sweep" aspect of it? Indeed, the family is a social science Bookstore, mainly teaching materials, really this is in question. In the end, the students are vulnerable to a variety of people checked, had to "shut down". His pique wrote a letter of complaint to Minister, sent down to check, and if so.
We think, we are trying to create conditions for the towns around job creation, entrepreneurship, and various approvals, inspections apparently inhibits this entrepreneurial zeal of the people. So we decided to reduce administrative examination and approval, more than six months, strength has been cancelled under the Central Government and decentralized 221 approval. Decentralization policies, society, released a very positive signal to the market, is encouraging people to employment. A couple of days ago I asked for data of the business registration office, the third quarter of this year, the national new market rose 18%, 31% number of private enterprises has them, compared with previous years, there seemed to be a burst of growth. So we as a breakthrough in the reform of transforming government functions.
Of course, the reform is not only to transform government functions, we would like to know more ways. Because economic development always requires financial resources, in a context of increasing financial difficulties, we find a way to revitalize the stock. How to enliven the stock? We put forward, to ensure that the people live a happy life, the Government will be an austere life. The Central "eight rules", the Government made clear "agreement", from the "Excellencies," funding "axe". This year, starting from the central authorities, administrative cost cut 5%. This freed up some money, do you? One of these is for small business tax cuts. At the same time, we are also reforming the investment system. This reform, withdrew the MOR, converted into Railway Corporation.
However, in accordance with the second option to do was either that there was no pressure.
Second, accurate punches. To promote economic development, not just stabilize policy, reforms, stimulating market vitality, but also increase the intensity of structural adjustment, which is very important is to expand domestic demand. We have introduced a series of policy measures to stimulate consumption. At the same time, we also vigorously developing old-age and health services. In this regard, we are short. Now, said a lot of excess, to take steps to digest excess capacity, but the service is a relative shortage. Service industries of China and foreign gap is still very big, is to equal income levels compared with us, probably also the share of services in GDP sent 10%. It is understood that in a number of mega-cities, to enter into the public nursing home, if you are 50 years old began queuing up, are lining up for 30 years, 40 years, will have to wait at least until more than 80 years old, which means pension services supply is not enough. China's per capita GDP is now more than 6,000 US dollars, is still a great potential for development of the service sector, to take measures to promote, in particular, to break down barriers, absorbing social capital. While manufacturing is not lost. We place greater emphasis on energy conservation and environmental protection in line with structural upgrading of industries. We have also increased the transformation of urban squatter settlements, this will benefit people's livelihood project is, in fact, drive growth projects. We need to speed up the transformation of shanty towns. Promote structural adjustment, in fact, is to narrow the gap in Western, Central and eastern areas, narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and cracked internal binary gap.
Third, expanding opening up. After many years of hard work, China, has grown into the world's second-largest economy, it should be said that China's increasing export competitiveness can be seen.
IV to guide market expectations. While doing a lot of work, but there is some peace of mind, think if reforms, decentralization, restructuring must be able to see the effect this year? Coupled with the foreign, a "China" is an allegation, said Chinese economic hard landing, and even some famous economists have also given judgment, said China's economic growth this year will fall to 3%. I see the foreign guest, others say similar things. We do not believe in high speed, not one-sided pursuit of GDP, but a reasonable rate of growth is needed, we have determined that the reasonable interval for economic growth. Actually guide the community expectations. Reasonable intervals? People ask me, saying that there is an upper limit lower limit, and ultimately how much Ah? That is identified in the GDP this year, according to the NPC, an increase of 7.5% per cent, as the lower bound, which directly related to employment; Cap CPI, is price rises should not exceed about 3.5%, because people want to live in China's price statistics, 33% per cent weighting is the food. Low-income us quite a lot of people, poor, towns of more than 20 million, more than 50 million rural, 5% per cent of the population as a whole, so we send a signal to the community, if really want to slip out of the reasonable range of economic operation, the Government will take targeted measures. But in a reasonable range, we still try to clear the reform's biggest bonus, energetically promote the reform and strive to promote structural adjustments, stimulating market vitality to foster economic growth of the inner dynamics. This does not mean that the Government has no responsibility for maintaining macroeconomic stability, the responsibility is there, it is capable of, we are clearly sending the signal to the world.
There is nothing better than this
For more than 30 years of reform and opening, China's average annual economic growth of 9.8%, can be said to be a miracle. But at this stage, if it remains overly dependent on investment, bottlenecks in the energy, resources and the environment is more and more often, rapid growth of high input, high energy consumption, unsustainable. Also to see that our cost competitive relatively weakened. The purpose of economic growth is to improve people's lives, and ultimately improve the standard of living and the quality of higher wages is inevitable. Not just labor costs and land costs are also increasing. Also to see, we now have high cardinality, GDP reached 52 trillion Yuan last year, and on this basis grew by 1%, and growth in GDP, 10 trillion yuan, based on 1%, that difference is much greater.
As a middle-income country like ours, economic growth has been from high-speed access to high-speed stage. What is high-speed? I think that 7.5% or around than one third is high speed. The so-called "China" is past us. Is a two-digit growth in the past, is 9.8%. 7% per cent, 7.5% per cent rate; but on a world scale, we can still be high speed. Particularly in large countries, no country has such high speeds. And we measure, built a well-off society by 2020, with an average annual growth rate as long as the 7% is enough. Which is conducive to the use of more energy to restructure, digestion and excess capacity, strengthen energy-saving and environmental protection, improving quality, and protection of the environment, leaving space for sustainable development.
To see that China is qualified long-term economic growth, sustained and healthy development, because we're still in the process of industrialization and urbanization development. Our current urbanization rate, say 52%, it added more than half a year and the resident population, the registered population urbanization rate is less than 35%. And developed countries, and developing countries than with the levels we low a lot, which in itself shows that we have the potential. It's not just the urban-rural gap, Western, Central and Eastern development still has a long way to go. We are now national per capita GDP to 6,000 US dollars, tens of thousands of dollars in some areas in the East, but only $ 3,000 in Western regions. Gap potential. Even more important is that we reform there is a huge bonus. More than 30 years of reform and opening up, we have made great achievements. Reforms do not exist, and we're determined to push for comprehensive reform, use cut to advance reform. Namely, finance and budget, cuts in public "three funds", including financial reform, promote market-oriented interest rate, so that small businesses can be more effective, relatively low-cost loan, and so on, these reforms, we are to move forward. Of course, interests of the reform is to touch, but reform is for the interests of the people, a better life for the millions of workers to, there is nothing better than this, which requires unyielding.
It must be emphasized that we forge ahead faces many risks and challenges in the future. How to defuse the risk of challenges, you need to have the courage and wisdom, need everyone to work together, sharing common goals.
Focus on GDP, is in fact concerned about employment. Current 1% about GDP growth, capable of pulling 1.3 million to 1.5 million were employed.
Decentralization policies, society, released a very positive signal to the market, is encouraging people to employment.
Reasonable interval of identified economic growth, actually guide the community expects GDP growth of around 7.5% is the lower limit, this directly related to employment; the maximum is about CPI rises should not exceed 3.5%, because people want to live.
听李克强总理讲经济
11月9日，中国网络电视台全球首发李克强总理的经济公开课，课程全景展现了李克强总理在中国工会第十六次全国代表大会上对中国经济发展现状和未来中长期走势的深刻思考和研判，被誉为“一堂生动的经济公开课”(以下内容均摘自公开课，小标题为《小康》杂志编者加)
关注GDP，其实是在关注就业
如何看待当前经济形势，需要放在国际经济大环境中来透视。新一届政府成立以来，我们面临着错综复杂的经济形势。突出特点是世界经济复苏乏力，很多主要经济体增长低迷，我们国家几十年的改革开放取得了巨大的成就，在应对经济危机的过程中，也取得了明显的成效。
2010年，我们的经济增长是两位数，达到10.4%，但去年的四季度，因为国际国内多重复杂因素交织影响，经济增长率只有7.8%，到了今年一季度是7.7%，二季度是7.5%。
我为什么要跟大家讲GDP呢？同志们可能会问，说我们不能片面强调GDP。这个话说得不错，但我们毕竟是发展中国家，发展还是我国解决一切问题的基础和关键。更重要的是，我们关注GDP，其实关注的是就业。过去，我国GDP每增长1个百分点，就会拉动大约100万人就业。经过经济结构的调整、服务业的发展，目前大概GDP增长1个百分点，能够拉动130万甚至150万人就业。
“骑自行车”的诀窍
面对经济下行的压力，怎么办？要稳增长、保就业，我们有两种选择。一种选择是扩大赤字，增加货币供应量。打赤字、发票子来带动投资，但是这样做，当年可能能见效，对明年、对今后可能会带来副作用，更重要的是这种短期刺激政策难以持续。因为我们的赤字率已经达到GDP的2.1%了。这是什么概念呢？欧盟定了一个标准，就是赤字不能超过GDP的3%，当然后来很多成员国没有遵守，超过了。结果大家都知道，出现了欧债危机，失业率反倒大增，原有的福利也无法保障。就货币来说，我们的广义货币供应量M2的余额已经是GDP的两倍了。换句话说，就是“池子”里的货币已经很多了，再发就有可能导致通货膨胀。大家都知道，恶性通货膨胀，不仅干扰或者破坏市场，最主要的信号是价格，而且会给人民生活带来巨大的副作用和压力，甚至造成人心惶惶。
第二种选择，就是坚持不扩大赤字，货币政策既不放松也不收紧银根。这就需要我们保持定力、稳定政策。那么有的同志可能会说，这样做是不是不作为了，只要站住不动就行了？那不行，你要不动，就像骑自行车一样，停在那里晃两圈儿，没准儿就摔下来了。所以还得动，要稳中求进，这是中央确定的工作总基调。还必须稳中有为。
要管住“闲不住的手”
怎样稳中有为？那就要创新宏观调控思路，根据形势变化，采取有效的、有针对性的措施。我们大致采取了这样几条。
第一，深处着力，努力释放改革的巨大红利。从十八届二中全会到今年全国两会，我们提出简政放权，既要精简机构，更要转变政府职能，这里面大有文章可做。大家都知道，有所谓“两只手”，看不见的是市场的手，看得见的是政府的手。社会上有人说，政府“看得见的手”变成了“闲不住的手”，干什么事都要去报批。你们可能从电视上看过，有人曾经画了一张审批的“万里长征图”，多的时候要盖一百多个章才能办成一件事。有一位部长告诉我，说他接到一封投诉信，就派人下去查，还是真的。一个在北京读书的大学生，毕业以后回家，到中部地区的一个小县城，他想自主创业。干什么呢？他觉得这个县城里面要增加点文化氛围，就想办一个书店，大概从父母和亲属那里借了20多万元，结果跑了三四个月，盖了二十多个公章，总算跑下来。好不容易租了店铺，然后就开始被检查了。有的执法人员进去看，说你这个店玻璃颜色不对，照到街面上光污染，你得改。要办书店的年轻人说我已经没钱了，执法人员说没钱也行，给书吧，就摸了几十本书走了。那他书里是不是有什么“打黄扫非”方面的问题呀？实际上，人家办的是一个社科书店，主要是教材，还真没这方面问题。到最后，这个大学生实在是经不起各种人员的反复检查，只好“关门大吉”。他一气之下给部长写了封投诉信，部里派人下去查，还果真如此。
大家想想看，我们在尽力为各地城镇新增就业、创业创造条件，而各种审批、检查显然把人民群众这种创业的热情给抑制了。所以我们下决心减少行政审批，这半年多来，中央政府下大气力已经取消和下放221项审批事项。简政放权的政策，向社会、向市场释放了一个非常积极的信号，就是鼓励大家就业创业。前两天我要了工商登记机关的数据，今年第三季度，全国新设市场主体同比增长了18%，其中民营企业数量增长了31%，和前些年相比较，似乎有一种迸发式的增长。所以我们把转变政府职能作为改革的突破口。
当然，改革不光是要转变政府职能，我们得想更多办法。因为经济发展总是需要财力的，在财政增收困难的情况下，我们就想办法盘活存量。怎么把存量盘活？我们提出来，要让人民过好日子，政府就要过紧日子。中央有“八项规定”，政府明确提出“约法三章”，要从“三公”经费上“开刀”。今年从中央机关开始做，行政经费砍了5%。这样就腾出来一些钱，干什么？其中一项是给小微企业减税。同时，我们还改革投资体制。这次机构改革，把铁道部撤销了，改成了铁路总公司。
但是，按照第二种选择来做，也不是说没有压力。
第二，精准发力。推动经济发展，不光是稳住政策、推进改革、激发市场活力，还要加大结构调整的力度，其中很重要的就是扩大内需。我们出台了一系列刺激居民消费的政策措施。同时，我们还大力发展养老和健康服务业。这方面我们是短缺的。现在说不少产品过剩，要采取措施消化过剩产能，而服务却是相对短缺的。中国的服务业和国外相比差距还很大，就是和与我们同等收入水平的国家相比，服务业占GDP的比重大概也差了10个百分点。据了解，在一些特大城市，要进公立养老院，如果今年50岁开始排队，要排上30年，甚至40年，那就得至少等到80多岁了，这说明养老服务供给很不够。我国人均GDP现在6000多美元，服务业发展的潜力还是很大的，要采取措施加以推动，特别是要破除障碍，吸收社会资本进入。同时要看到，制造业是不能丢的。我们重点加强节能环保这些符合结构升级方向的产业。我们还加大城市棚户区的改造力度，这是惠及民生的项目，其实也是拉动增长的项目。我们要加快棚户区改造。推进结构调整，实际上也是要缩小东中西部地区差距，缩小城乡之间的差距和破解城市内部二元差距。
第三，扩大开放。中国经过多年的努力，已经成长为世界第二大经济体，应该说这其中我国出口竞争力不断提高功不可没。
第四，引导市场预期。虽然做了很多工作，但市场还是有一些不安心的地方，觉得改革措施、简政放权、调整结构是不是今年一定能见得了效？再加上国外又出现“唱空中国”的一种舆论，说中国经济要硬着陆，甚至有些著名经济学家也给出判断，说今年中国经济增幅会落到3%。我见外宾时，也有人说类似的话。我们不追求高速度，更不片面追求GDP，但是合理的增长速度是需要的，所以我们就确定了经济增长的合理区间。实际上是要引导社会预期。什么合理区间呢？老有人追问我，说这有上限下限，最终到底是多少啊？那就是GDP按照今年人代会所确定的，增长7.5%左右，作为我们的下限，这直接关系就业；上限CPI，就是物价上涨不能超过3.5%左右，因为老百姓要过日子，而在我国物价统计方法中，33%即三分之一权重是食品。我们中低收入的群众还相当多，光低保，城镇2000多万，农村5000多万，占整个人口的5%，所以我们向社会发出信号，如果经济运行真要滑出这个合理区间，政府就要采取有针对性的措施。但在这个合理区间内，我们还是尽可能地释放改革的最大红利，着力推进改革，着力推进结构调整，激发市场活力来培育经济增长的内生动力。这不是说政府没有保持宏观经济稳定的责任，这个责任我们是有的，也是有能力的，我们向世界明确发出这个信号。
没有什么比这个利益更大
改革开放30多年来，我国经济年均增长9.8%，可以说是奇迹。但是到了目前这个阶段，如果依然过度依赖投资，能源、资源、环境的瓶颈制约会越来越明显，高速增长靠高投入、高能耗，难以为继了。另外也要看到，我们的成本竞争优势相对在减弱。经济增长的目的还是要改善人民生活，最终要提高人民生活水平和质量，所以提高工资是必然的。不光是人力成本，土地各方面的成本也在增加。还要看到，我们现在的基数也比较高了，去年GDP达到52万亿人民币，在这个基础上增长1%，和GDP在10万亿、5万亿人民币基础上增长1%，那差别就大得多。
作为我们这样一个中等收入国家，经济增长已从原来的高速进入到了中高速阶段。什么叫中高速？我认为，7.5%左右或者7%以上就是中高速。所谓“中”是和我们过去比较。过去是两位数增长，平均是9.8%。7%以上、7.5%左右就算中速了；但是在世界范围内，我们仍然是高速。特别是在大国中，没有哪个国家有我们这样高的速度。而且我们测算，到2020年实现全面建成小康社会，年均增长速度只要7%就够了。这样有利于各方面用更多的精力来调整结构，消化过剩产能，加强节能环保，提高质量，保护环境，留出可持续发展空间。
要看到，中国经济是有条件长期增长、持续健康发展的，因为我们毕竟还处于工业化、城镇化的发展过程当中。我们现在的城镇化率，说是52%，那是加上半年及以上常住人口，户籍人口城镇化率不到35%。和发达国家比，和同水平的发展中国家比，我们还低了不少，这本身也说明我们有潜力。不光是城乡差距，东中西部发展也还有很大差距。我们现在全国人均GDP是6000美元，东部一些地区上万美元了，可是我们西部地区才3000美元。差距就是潜力。更重要的是，我们改革有巨大的红利。30多年的改革开放，使我们取得了巨大的成就。改革没有止境，我们要下决心推动全面改革，用壮士断腕的精神来推进改革。包括财政公开预算、削减“三公经费”，包括金融改革，推动利率市场化，让小微企业能够更有效、比较低成本地贷到款，等等，这些改革我们都是要推进的。当然，改革是要触动利益的，但是改革是为了人民的利益，为了亿万职工都能过上好日子，没有什么比这个利益更大，为此必须义无反顾。
必须强调，我们未来前进路上还面临很多风险和挑战。如何化解存在的风险挑战，需要有勇气和智慧，需要大家齐心协力，同心同德。
关注GDP，其实关注的是就业。目前大概GDP增长1个百分点，能够拉动130万甚至150万人就业。
简政放权的政策，向社会、向市场释放了一个非常积极的信号，就是鼓励大家就业创业。
确定了经济增长的合理区间，实际上是要引导社会预期，GDP增长7.5%左右是我们的下限，这直接关系就业；上限是CPI上涨不能超过3.5%左右，因为老百姓要过日子。
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