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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/2 8:34:16 Beijing’s temperature reached 12.8 degrees centigrade yesterday， Sunday to Wednesday or the first snow
In recent days, bathed in the warm sun of winter in Beijing. Yesterday, the Beijing high even as high as 12.8 ° c, for new year's with the highest temperatures since meteorological records began in 1951. Yesterday, many parts of the country temperatures since meteorological records began in refreshing the highest temperature in 2014, the warmest new year's day definite. However, according to the Meteorological Department predicted that during the January 5, in the eastern region will welcome widespread rain and snow and strong wind during cool weather, Beijing is expected to usher in the first winter snowfall.
≫> reviews
Yesterday the maximum temperature occurs in Shijingshan
Yesterday morning, the sun rises on time to meet the 2014 first days. City weather monitoring displays, 10:30 A.M., city's temperature has been above 9 ° c. Yesterday, at 12 o'clock noon, Southern Observatory high above 10 ° c and peak at 12.8 ° c in the afternoon, Shijingshan site even reached 13 degrees centigrade.
In recent days, "high temperature" is the theme of winter in Beijing. Starting from Monday, maximum temperatures exceed 8 degrees Celsius. Also so temperature so that the public feeling "good weather". Maximum temperatures have risen to 12.8 ° c compared with the capital city, meteorological data showed that this temperature since weather records began in 1951, the highest temperature in a new year's day.
≫> analysis
January in previous years have high temperatures
Beijing Meteorological Observatory chief forecaster Wang introduced, high temperatures in Beijing in recent days, mainly no cold air activities, warmer weather, high altitude air flow control in the Northwest, the ground weak northerly wind, high transparency of the atmosphere and climate of small, light well, heating up fast during the day. Fluctuations in winter cold air activities, activities in the cold air gap appeared high temperature is normal in January in previous years have experienced more than 12.8 ° c temperatures.
China's Meteorological Administration predicted, prior to January 7, weak cold air forces affecting our country. As far as the average temperature, except northern, Eastern and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang 1~2℃ low temperatures throughout the period, but other high temperature about 1 ° c in most parts of the country, Beijing in November and December a two-month day average temperatures will be higher than the annual average 1 ° c.
≫> forecast
This weekend or early next week with rain and snow
Not only Beijing. According to the China Meteorological Administration, statistics, as of yesterday, in most areas of East-Central temperature has been steadily picking up, many places have all had a warm new year. According to statistics, yesterday in Wuhan, and Changsha, the maximum temperature reached 17 degrees centigrade, refresh period in history (15.7 ° c and 16.7 ° c) record.
Meteorological departments predicted that January 5, in the eastern region will welcome widespread rain and snow and strong wind during cool weather. At that time most, most of North China, Northeast China, in the Northwest in huanghuai area with small to moderate snow and some places have snow, is expected to the weather in Beijing ushered in the first snow in this winter.
◇ Science
Over the new year's day is snow less windy
According to the years of meteorological data statistics: temperature is a lingxia2.9℃ on new year's day, average daily maximum temperature of about 1 ° c, average daily minimum temperature of lingxia9℃.
Extreme minimum temperature appears on January 1, 1966, lingxia16.6℃. Extreme maximum temperature appears on January 1, 1976, 12.5. Snow appears (that is, after the snow into water measuring rainfall ≥ 0.1 mm) less chance of 10%. However, the chances appeared more than four or five strong winds up to 65%
Related news
Beijing has 70 consecutive days without precipitation
As of yesterday, time is already entered in 2014, but Beijing's first snow is still missing. Average date of first snow in Beijing November 29, Beijing's first snow this winter was late for 1 month. Since October 22, 2013 appeared after a citywide light shower, as of yesterday, the precipitation in Beijing, has not appeared for 70 days.
Chief China weather network meteorologists described Li Xiaoquan, since 1951 under Beijing's first snow in only 5 of the following year, 2010 under winter's first snowfall until February 10, breaking a record.
-Construction
1 Why is the first snow late temperature too high?
Lack of water vapor transport over snow
Senior Engineer of the Beijing Climate Center, described Chen Dagang, snow days are under 30 (1981), first snow, on average, before and after that most years the first snow in Beijing time on November 29, this is only an average, not a majority. Actually, snow will be very long, since 1951, Beijing's first snow date is February 9, 2011 at the latest. History appears as early as the first snow day on October 31, 1987, the first snowfall, much of that time, 11. Snow requires more abundant moisture conditions and cold air, while snowfall in Beijing late mainly because of the lack of water vapor transport. Chen Dagang introduced moisture transport in Beijing area has two sources. Is sea water vapor transport. When warm, moist air from the South and the North the cold air in Beijing "realignment", Beijing there will be snow.
2 this winter without snow, fog and haze are reduced?
Improvement in emissions reduction plus the North wind haze
Monitoring the Department of environmental protection Secretary Luo Yi on 2013 winter, consecutive haze in China, mostly in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta region. In particular, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Taihang mountain belt, air flow is not good, there chances of haze is relatively large. "But Beijing is better in the near future", one is Beijing and surrounding Hebei province to take a lot of prevention and control measures; plus cold air activities in Beijing in the near future more often times won't move along the cold front arrived in Baoding, Beijing has three or four-stage air pollutants is not easy to gather, in favour of haze, did not pose a serious pollution.
Beijing professional meteorological experts said Zhang Mingying, gesanchawu the North wind was more favourable to improving Beijing's air quality, Beijing winter air quality improved significantly over the same period last year.
3 human intervention can haze of snow?
Haze of artificial flooding small area you can try
Zhang Mingying, artificial precipitation conditions such as humidity, atmospheric vertical motions are required, manual intervention can increase the rain or snow, but not under the conditions when there is no rainfall and snowfall, creating the conditions to produce the snow.
Haze of artificial flooding is still in the experimental stage. Institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences researcher Wang Yuesi said drive haze using such methods, at the airport, small venue such as a small scale test you can try, but widespread use is not realistic. Haze is a product of stable weather structure, stable structure becomes unstable weather this is difficult, likely outcome is to break up into little cubes, surrounded by a wide range of haze closes immediately, the artificial modification of effect is not obvious, but also waste a lot of money.
Jinghua times, Wang Shuo, Beijing times mapping Yang Jianing
(Original title: the Sunday to Beijing next Wednesday or snow)
近日，北京城沐浴在冬日暖阳当中。昨天，北京最高气温更达12.8℃，为1951年有气象记录以来气温最高的元旦。昨天，全国多地区气温均刷新有气象记录以来最高温度，2014年最暖元旦确定无疑。但是，据气象部门预计，1月5日至8日期间，中东部地区将迎大范围雨雪和大风降温天气过程，北京有望迎来入冬首场降雪。
>>回顾
昨最高温出现在石景山
昨天一早，太阳准时升起，迎接2014年的第一天。市气象台监测显示，上午10点半，城区的气温已在9℃以上了。昨天中午12点，南郊观象台最高气温突破10℃，并在下午达到12.8℃的峰值，石景山站点甚至达到13℃。
连日来，“高温”一直是北京冬日主题。从本周一开始，最高气温均突破8℃。如此的温度也让市民感慨“天气特好”。而昨日京城最高气温竟升至12.8℃，气象资料显示，这个温度成为1951年有气象记录以来气温最高的一个元旦。
>>分析
往年1月也有气温偏高
北京市气象台首席预报员王华介绍，近日北京气温偏高，主要是没有冷空气活动，天气回暖，高空受西北气流控制，地面有弱北风，大气透明度好，而且湿度小，光照好，白天升温快。冬季冷空气活动呈波动式，在冷空气活动间隙，出现气温偏高很正常，往年的1月也曾出现过比12.8℃更高的气温。
中国气象局预计，1月7日之前，影响我国的冷空气势力较弱。就平均气温而言，除新疆北部、内蒙古东部和东北地区气温比常年同期偏低1～2℃外，我国其他大部分地区气温偏高1℃左右，北京11月、12月两个月的日平均气温也要比常年平均水平偏高1℃。
>>预测
本周末下周初或有雨雪
不仅仅北京如此。据中国气象局统计，截至昨天，中东部大部地区气温都在稳步回升中，不少地方都度过了一个温暖的新年。据统计，昨天武汉、长沙的最高温均达到17℃，刷新历史同期(15.7℃、16.7℃)纪录。
气象部门预计，1月5日至8日，中东部地区将迎大范围雨雪和大风降温天气过程。届时西北地区大部、华北大部、东北、黄淮地区有小到中雪，局部地区有大雪，北京有望在此次天气过程中迎来今冬的第一场雪。
◇科普
历年元旦均为雪少风大
据常年的气象资料统计：元旦的日平均气温为零下2.9℃，日平均最高气温为1℃左右，日平均最低气温为零下9℃上下。
极端最低气温出现在1966年1月1日，为零下16.6℃。极端最高气温出现在1976年1月1日，为12.5℃。出现有量降雪(即将雪化成水后测量的降水量≥0.1毫米)的几率不到10%。但是，出现四五级以上大风的几率却高达65%
■相关新闻
北京已70天无降水
截至昨天，时间的脚步已迈入2014年，但北京的初雪仍迟迟不见踪影。以北京平均初雪日期11月29日计算，北京今冬的初雪迟到了1个多月。自2013年10月22日出现一次全市性的小阵雨后，截至昨日，北京已经有70天没有出现降水了。
中国天气网首席气象专家李小泉介绍，自1951年以来北京初雪下在次年的情况只有5次，其中2010年冬天的初雪直到次年2月10日才下，打破了历史纪录。
□释疑
1为何初雪迟到气温偏高？
缺少水汽输送初雪难成
北京市气候中心高级工程师陈大刚介绍，初雪日是根据30年(1981年至2010年)初雪时间平均值，即北京大多数年份初雪时间在11月29日前后，这只是一个平均值而不是多数值。实际看来，初雪时间会拉得很长，1951年至今，北京最晚初雪日为2011年2月9日。历史最早初雪日出现于1987年10月31日，初雪时间大多在11、12月。降雪需要较为充足的水汽条件和冷空气，而北京降雪偏晚主要是因为缺少水汽输送。陈大刚介绍，北京地区的水汽输送有两个来源。一是南海的水汽输送。如果南方的暖湿气流与北方的冷空气在北京“会师”，北京就会出现降雪。
2今冬无雪雾霾却在减少？
减排加北风雾霾有改善
环保部监测司司长罗毅介绍，2013年入冬以来，我国连续出现灰霾天气，主要集中在京津冀、长三角区域。特别是河北石家庄这一带，太行山环带，空气流动性不好，出现灰霾的几率比较大。“但北京近期比较好”，一是北京及周边河北等地采取了大量的防控措施；另外就是近期北京的冷空气活动比较频繁，几次冷空气前锋到了保定一带就不往前推进了，所以北京有三四级风，污染物不容易聚集，有利于散霾，未形成严重污染。
北京市专业气象台专家张明英表示，隔三差五的北风却对改善北京空气质量较为有利，北京入冬以来空气质量较去年同期改善明显。
3能否人工干预雾霾降雪？
人工驱霾小范围可尝试
张明英表示，人工降雨雪需要具备湿度、大气垂直运动等条件，人工干预可增加降雨或降雪，但不会在没有降雨降雪的条件下，创造条件去产生雨雪。
人工驱霾目前还在试验阶段。中国科学院大气物理研究所研究员王跃思表示，使用此种方法进行驱霾，在机场、小会场等小范围内进行试验可以尝试，但大范围使用不现实。雾霾是稳定天气结构下的产物，要想把这种稳定的天气结构变为不稳定很难，可能的结果是驱散一小块儿，周围大范围的雾霾立刻合拢过来，人工影响的效果不明显，同时也浪费大量资金。
京华时报记者王硕京华时报制图杨佳宁
(原标题：本周日至下周三北京或现初雪)
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