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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/2 8:34:21 Central Bank to revert to moderate liquidity， is unlikely to make money in the industry shortage
In 2013, provides steady tightening of monetary policy. W IN d according to the 2013 open market capital puts only 113.8 billion yuan for the year, funds the amount is far lower than in previous years. Especially the second half of 2013, policy is actually shrinking, leading to sharply lower interest rates upward, currency market several times Wednesday. However, such tensions or will usher in improved, the Central Bank again on the last day in 2013 "moderate liquidity" slogan of this policy, the precursor institution to determine policy, a preset.
On December 31, 2013, issued by the Central Bank's monetary policy Committee last quarter of 2013 meeting announcements. The Bank said the continued implementation of prudent monetary policy, moderate liquidity, monetary and social to raise reasonable credit growth, improvement and optimization of financing structure and credit structure.
Considers that this statement is a response to Prime Minister Li keqiang speeches. A few days ago, Prime Minister for investigation and research in Tianjin, said Li keqiang, to adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy, moderate liquidity, monetary and social to raise reasonable credit growth, and keep overall price levels basically stable.
Central Bank's stance was also the precursor institution to determine policy, a preset. Central Bank policies are "strengthening the role of liquidity the total gate of". At the Central Bank, released on November 5, 2013 2013 in its third quarter monetary policy report, work for the next stage of mobility management as: "strengthening the role of liquidity the total gate of, guiding monetary credit and raise, stable and moderate growth of the community. ”
The monetary policy Committee of the stress, we will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, moderate liquidity, monetary and social to raise reasonable credit growth, improvement and optimization of financing structure and credit structure. While making reforms on regulation and enhanced efficiency of financial operation and service capabilities in the real economy. Further promoting the reform of interest rate marketization and the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and keep the Yuan exchange rates basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
Weber brothers asset management, said Teng Tai, Chairman, following Prime Minister first proposed in Tianjin trip "moderate liquidity" after four quarterly meetings of the Central Bank's monetary policy Committee also made it clear he wanted "moderate liquidity". This principle requires, 2014 may no longer "shortage of money".
In 2013, provides steady tightening of monetary policy, especially coming in the second half, policy clearly shrunk. W IN d according to 2013 as a whole puts only 113.8 billion yuan of funds on the open market, but from 2010 to 2012, annual net amount of funds on the open market 6 500 million, 1.907 trillion yuan respectively and 1.438 trillion yuan. Earlier, the Central Bank accumulated in 2010 increased 5 times 2.5% the statutory deposit rates, 2011 by 6 times, lowered 1 total statutory deposit rate by 2.5%, 2012 to cut 2 Trojan 1% official deposit rates, in 2013, the deposit rate unchanged. This shows that the 2013 annual funds on the open market has declined markedly. Also, is far less foreign exchange accounted for an increase of 2013 in 2010 and 2011. Therefore, the 2013 capital supply is far less than in previous years.
The second half of 2013, the policy actually shrink, resulting in surface tension of funds, market interest rates sharply upward, currency market several times Wednesday. Some agencies believed that continued financial constraints and high interest rates have a big impact on the real economy, detrimental to economic growth in 2014 and not conducive to digesting a government debt in the coming years.
Wen Bin, head of macroeconomic research of the Institute of international finance, Bank of China to determine, from the second half of 2013 to 2014 throughout the maturity needed to repay debts of more than 4.8 trillion yuan, total government liabilities of 44%, set repayment pressure. The current tight liquidity in the market, financing costs are high, to guard against credit risk concentration arising from liquidity risk government financing platforms to break out. Therefore, to maintain the liquidity in the market, with time for space, the integrated use of various monetary policy tools to ensure that liquidity at the same time, it is recommended that timely drop.
Wen Bin believes that in 2014, the liquidity is still not optimistic in China requires multi-pronged approach to improve financing conditions in the real economy. Like, canceled part financial industry of system bonus, compression entity economic financing chain; improve Bank of lending capacity, appropriate reduced statutory deposits reserves rate, improve bank reduced loan interest rate of enthusiasm; stressed new capital agreement in the capital sufficient rate, and dynamic dial prepared rate, and lever rate and liquidity ratio four regulatory indicators of role, desalination even canceled credit lines and credit save than, traditional regulatory indicators.
(Edit: SN098)January 02, 2014 Economic information daily(央行重提保持适度流动性 业内称今年不会闹钱荒|流动性|央行|资金_新闻资讯
2013年，货币政策明稳实紧。W IN D数据显示，2013年全年公开市场资金仅净投放1138亿元，资金投放量远低于此前几年。尤其是2013年下半年来，政策操作实际收缩，导致利率大幅上行，货币市场数次震荡。不过，这种紧张局面或将迎来改善，央行在2013年的最后一天重提“保持适度流动性”这一政策口号，被一些机构判断为政策预调的前兆。
2013年12月31日，央行发布了货币政策委员会2013年第四季度例会的公告。央行表示，继续实施稳健的货币政策，保持适度流动性，实现货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长，改善和优化融资结构和信贷结构。
机构认为，这一表述是对李克强总理最新讲话的响应。日前，李克强总理在天津考察调研时表示，要坚持实施稳健的货币政策，保持适度流动性，实现货币信贷和社会融资规模合理增长，保持物价总水平基本稳定。
央行的表态也被一些机构判断为政策预调的前兆。央行此前的政策口径是“加强流动性总闸门的调节作用”。在央行2013年11月5日发布的《2013年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》中，对于下一阶段流动性的管理工作表述为：“加强流动性总闸门的调节作用，引导货币信贷及社会融资规模平稳适度增长。”
货币政策委员会此次强调，要继续实施稳健的货币政策，保持适度流动性，实现货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长，改善和优化融资结构和信贷结构。同时寓改革于调控之中，增强金融运行效率和服务实体经济能力。进一步推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
万博兄弟资产管理公司董事长滕泰表示，继总理在天津考察时首次提出“保持适度流动性”之后，央行货币政策委员会四季度例会也明确表示要“保持适度流动性”。有了这个原则性要求，相信2014年不会再闹“钱荒”。
2013年，货币政策明稳实紧，尤其是下半年来，政策操作明显收缩。W IN D数据显示，2013年全年公开市场资金仅净投放1138亿元，但2010年至2012年，公开市场年资金 净 投 放 量 分 别 为6 8 2 5亿 元 、19070亿元和14380亿元。此前，央行在2010年调升了5次累计2.5个百分点的法定存准率，2011年调升6次、调降1次合计调升2.5个百分点的法定存准率，2012年调降2次累 计1个 百 分 点 的 法 定 存 准 率 ，2013年存准率未动。由此可见，2013年全年公开市场的资金投放明显下降。而且，2013年的外汇占款增幅也远低于2010年和2011年。故此，2013年的资金供给远低于此前几年。
2013年下半年来，政策操作实际收缩，导致资金面紧张，市场利率大幅上行，货币市场数次震荡。一些机构认为，持续的资金紧张和高利率已对实体经济造成较大冲击，不利于2014年经济增长，更不利于未来几年消化政府债务。
中国银行国际金融研究所宏观经济研究主管温彬判断，2013年下半年至2014年全年到期需偿还债务超过4 .8万 亿 元 ， 占 政 府 负 债 的44%，集中还款压力大。当前市场流动性紧张，融资成本高企，要警惕政府融资平台因流动性风险导致信用风险集中爆发。所以，要保持市场流动性，用时间换空间，在综合运用多种货币政策工具确保流动性的同时，建议适时降准应对。
温彬认为，2014年我国流动性仍不容乐观，需要多管齐下改善实体经济融资环境。比如，取消部分金融行业的制度红利，压缩实体经济融资链条；提高银行的放贷能力，适当降低法定存款准备金率，提高银行降低贷款利率的积极性；强调新资本协议中资本充足率、动态拨备率、杠杆率和流动性比率四大监管指标的作用，淡化甚至取消信贷额度和贷存比等传统监管指标。
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