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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/2 8:37:51 Hundred nationwide House prices risen for 19 consecutive months， prices rise and differentiation
On January 1, the hundred House prices data released by China index Research Institute showed that in December 2013, hundreds of city housing prices nationally rose 0., 19 months in a row since the June 2012 rose. The industry believes that, in December, rising house prices trend leveled off, but prices rise further exacerbate the differentiation in different cities.
Hundred price indices according to China real estate index system sample survey on 100 city new homes data in December, 100 cities across the country (new) residential average price of 10,833 Yuan per square meter, the chain in November rose 0.7%, since the June 2012 rose for the 19th consecutive month, up and basically flat last month.
Mixed December 68 rose in 100 cities, 32 cities fell. Compared with a month earlier, December climbed the city reduce the number 1, which 1% more than ten per cent, compared with the previous month a reduction of 9 December prices fell cities increases the number 1, which decreases in 1% more than ten, compared with the previous month increased by 5.
Middle finger Court considers it, the data suggest that house prices trend has become more stable. Middle finger homes pointed out that, in line city and part hot second-tier city intensive tightened real estate regulation policy Hou, December Nanchang, and Xiamen have introduced policy ante regulation, market expected gradually smooth; supply and demand aspects, between 2013 end, most development enterprise in excess completed throughout sales target Hou, pushed disc volume entered seasonal trough, in 2014 residential supply volume increased of expected Xia, consumers more select continues to wait-and-see, and waiting 2014 market of new disc.
It is worthy to note, in hot cities home prices rose while stabilizing, differentiation of different urban real estate market increased once again.
Stock connection, line and the hot second-tier cities continued to inventory, two or three-tier cities mostly stock build-up. C r IC Research Center data show that for nearly two years, stocks of first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities are low: taking Beijing as an example, only 6.9 months digesting the inventory cycle. According to real estate data, second-tier city, Yingkou, Dandong, Ordos, Wenzhou City in the stock at a high level at the same time, poor performance of the market, over 20 more months of time, housing inventory time even reached 73.3 months in Dandong.
Future supply, the supply still falls short to Beijing, Shanghai, market stocks or second-tier cities will continue to accumulate. C r IC forecast, in 2014, the supply of first-tier cities remains relatively low, corresponding to 2013 2014 expected to supply only in Beijing and Shanghai respectively volume and 91%, if one takes into account the two cities local huge housing demand, as well as the strong absorption of immigrants, their market potential demand has been much larger than the current size of annual turnover. Relatively abundant in second-tier cities, including Ningbo 2014 new supply much of the deal is equivalent to 2013, nearly doubled.
1月1日，中国指数研究院发布的百城房价数据显示，2013年12月，全国百城房价环比上涨0 .7%，自2012年6月以来连续19个月环比上涨。业内人士认为，12月房价上涨走势趋于平稳，但不同城市房价涨跌分化进一步加剧。
根据中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数对100个城市新建住宅的全样本调查数据，12月，全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格为10833元每平方米，环比11月上涨0.70%，自2012年6月以来连续第19个月环比上涨，涨幅与上月基本持平。
涨跌方面，12月100个城市中有68个环比上涨，32个城市环比下跌。与上月相比，12月环比上涨的城市个数减少1个，其中涨幅在1%以上的有19个，较上月减少9个；12月价格环比下跌的城市个数增加1个，其中跌幅在1%以上的有15个，较上月增加5个。
中指院认为，上述数据表明房价走势更趋平稳。中指院指出，在一线城市和部分热点二线城市密集收紧房产调控政策后，12月南昌、厦门相继出台政策加码调控，市场预期渐趋平稳；供求方面，时至2013年年末，大部分开发企业在超额完成全年销售目标后，推盘量进入季节性低谷，在2014年住宅供应量加大的预期下，消费者多选择继续观望、等待2014年入市的新盘。
但值得注意的是，在热点城市房价涨幅趋稳的同时，不同城市房地产市场分化再度加剧。
库存方面，一线及热点二线城市市场持续去库存，二三线城市大多库存积累。C R IC研究中心数据显示，近两年以来，一线城市和热点二线城市库存持续处于低位，以北京为例，消化库存周期仅6.9个月。世联地产数据显示，二线城市中，营口、丹东、鄂尔多斯、温州等城市则在库存高企的同时，市场表现欠佳，去化时间多超20个月，丹东楼市库存去化时间甚至达73.3个月。
未来供应方面，京沪供应规模仍有不足，二线城市市场库存或将继续积累。C R IC预测，2014年，一线城市供应仍旧相对不足，北京和上海2014年预期供应仅分别相当于2013年成交量的91%和85%，如果考虑到这两个城市本地巨大的购房需求，以及对外来人口的强大吸附力，其市场实际潜在需求应远远大于当前年度成交规模。而二线城市中相对较充足，其中宁波2014年新增供应更是相当于2013年成交的183%，几乎翻倍。
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