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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/6 10:17:43 Experts said House prices adjustment target difficult to achieve， accountability cannot fail
"North of guangshen rose as high as 20%, up Super 10% 26 major cities, 69 cities rising house prices ... ..." 2013 national prices, this is far from price control goals set at the beginning. Establish and improve the stability of prices work presented by the Central examination system of accountability, the accountability system can really "to deliver" public concern.
10%, prices rose over 26
In 2013, China's property market ushered in after 2009 once again "the outbreak". According to the national statistical office in November in 70 cities nationwide house price changes, new urban housing prices rose continuously for 3 months is above 20%;, Xiamen, Nanjing, Xian, Wuhan and other 26 cities, prices of newly-built commercial housing rose meets or exceeds 10%.
State Department in early 2013, "five" requirement, the municipalities, cities and provincial capitals (Lazard), to the development and publication of newly built commercial housing price control target for the year, establish and improve the overall appraisal of the work of the accountability system. Many cities offered for this, local newly built commercial housing prices rise higher than this year's city or urban per capita disposable income in real terms. Beijing, Shanghai and other places made it clear that "basically stable".
However, in the past 2013, many cities across the country prices are substantially higher, complete price regulation objectives fundamental hopelessness. Data show that after allowing for price factors, most second-line the actual growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents was not Super 10%, Guangzhou 8.1%, Shenzhen 8.6%. That number is much lower than the price rises.
Under pressure from the pressure of price regulation objectives, since the last quarter of 2013, more urban collective force for control upgrades. "Beijing's seven" "Hu's seven" and "eight deep," "Spike six" policies were introduced, Wuhan, Nanjing and other second-tier cities are expected to introduce a "new deal".
Analysis of Zhang Dawei, Director of centaline property market research, "integrated data, four tier price regulation objectives is almost impossible; House prices rose by more than 10% of the city goal hope; and 23 per cent in the 8% between cities to complete the review of regulation-the difficulty of the task is also very large. ”
"Accountability" encounter "soft implementation"
In fact, to rein in housing prices has been around throughout the year, many cities resorted to "everything", innovation and regulation, "moves". Inhibition of both ends of the supply and demand statistics were "low" temperature reduction in the short term, but did not have a material impact.
Industry insiders said, which regulates difficult to reach – land of the fundamental interests of local government finances, it is difficult to control housing prices. Centaline property statistics in 2013, China's 40 major cities, land turnover up to 1.4707 trillion yuan, up from 2012 45%. North to first-tier cities, such as Guangzhou-Shenzhen to create new records of land deals of the year.
"Side is the Government called out ' to rein in house prices ' and the other side is ' allowed ' sold the land market hot, exposed local land financial dependence. "Zhang Dawei said that interaction between house price and land price always. The housing of visitation, local governments are more willing to sell, and the lack of real control over prices of power. So far, price control target of collective dissatisfaction will become inevitable.
"Price regulation goals difficult to achieve strict accountability cannot be in vain. "The China index Research Institute in central China said Li Guozheng, Marketing Director, challenged the authority of the accountability, is bound to weaken the impact of adjustment policies.
Regulation mechanism needs to be established
In fact, in addition to price regulation annual target "lost", a tax regulation was "unsettled", in addition to Beijing, unpublished in many cities in the implementation of 20% personal income tax imposed by the rules for the implementation of housing transactions, policy became "Thunder bujianrenxialai".
In the course of previous regulation, "there is policy, localities have their counter-measures" to offset the effects. Buyers in order to break through the domestic sales quota, "fake divorce" tricks "emerged"; and developers in order to escape the limit control, split the hardcover, rough behavior repeated hidden price increase in the contract.
Vice President of the China real estate Association Kwok-keung said the regulation at the end of "upgrades" are mostly from the perspective of demand, although statistics will drive down, but "stopgap". Current market slows to a wait-and-see mood, just want to live in the future for the city market, demand will be sustained release.
Ministry of housing, former Deputy Director of the Center for policy studies said Yu Lin Wang, central to the real estate market will shift from demand-side management to supply management, the next step both to increase the supply and release memory. "Sinking property market regulation and mandates and responsibilities to local, city on the individual prices rising too fast to timely interviews, find prices rising too fast causes, develop effective approaches. "According to the Xinhua News
(Original title: price control and accountability would "break"? )
“北上广深同比涨幅高达20%，26个主要城市涨幅超10%，69个城市房价上涨……”2013年全国房价涨声一片，这与年初各地制定的房价控制目标相差甚远。中央提出建立健全稳定房价工作的考核问责制度，问责制能否真正“兑现”，公众颇为关注。
26市房价同比涨幅超10%
2013年，中国楼市迎来了2009年之后的又一次“爆发”。根据国家统计局公布的11月全国70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况，一线城市新建住宅价格已连续3个月同比涨幅在20%以上；厦门、南京、西安、武汉等26个城市新建商品住宅价格同比涨幅达到或超过10%。
国务院2013年初出台的“国五条”要求，各直辖市、计划单列市和省会城市(除拉萨外)要制定并公布年度新建商品住房价格控制目标，建立健全稳定房价工作的考核问责制度。多地城市为此提出，当地新建商品住房价格涨幅不高于本年度城市或城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长幅度。北京、上海等地明确表示要“基本稳定”。
然而，过去的2013年，全国许多城市房价都出现明显上涨，完成房价调控目标基本无望。数据显示，扣除价格因素影响后，大多数二线城市的居民人均可支配收入的实际增速都未超10%，广州为8.1%，深圳为8.6%。这一数据远低于房价上涨幅度。
迫于房价调控目标的压力，2013年第四季度以来，多个城市集体发力进行调控升级。“京七条”“沪七条”“深八条”“穗六条”等政策相继出台，武汉、南京等二线城市也纷纷出台“新政”。
中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟分析，“综合数据来看，四个一线城市完成房价调控目标几乎不可能；房价涨幅超过10%的城市完成目标希望渺茫；还有23个涨幅在8%－10%之间的城市完成年度调控任务的难度同样非常大。”
“问责制”遭遇“软执行”
事实上，严控房价一直是各地贯穿全年的工作，不少城市使出“浑身解数”，创新调控“招式”。抑制供需两端，统计数据被“压低”，短期内降了温，但未有实质性影响。
业内人士表示，调控难以触及地方政府的根本利益——土地财政，也就难以控制住房价。中原地产统计数据显示，2013年全国主要的40个城市，土地成交额高达14707亿元，同比2012年上涨45%。北上广深等一线城市全面创造年度土地成交新记录。
“一面是政府高喊‘严控房价’，另一面却是‘放任’土地市场成交火爆，暴露的恰是地方政府对土地财政的过于依赖。”张大伟表示，房价与地价总是相互影响。在楼市火爆的时候，地方政府更愿意多卖地，而缺乏真正控制房价的动力。目前看来，房价控制目标集体不达标将成必然。
“房价调控目标难以实现，严厉问责不能落空。”中国指数研究院华中市场总监李国政表示，问责制的权威性受到挑战，势必将削弱调控政策的影响力。
调控长效机制亟待建立
事实上，除了房价调控年度目标“落空”，个税调控也被“悬空”，除北京外，多城市在执行中未公布房屋交易20%个人所得税的征收实施细则，政策变成了“只见楼梯响，不见人下来”。
而在历次调控过程中，“上有政策，下有对策”的现象冲抵调控效果。购房者为了突破家庭限购数量，“假离婚”之类的招数“应运而生”；开发商为了逃避限价监管，拆分精装、毛坯合同变相涨价的行为屡禁不止。
中国房地产学会副会长陈国强表示，各地年底调控“升级”大多从抑制需求角度出发，虽然可以拉低统计数字，但毕竟“治标不治本”。当前市场趋冷出现观望情绪，未来在刚需自住为市场主体的城市，需求仍将会得到持续释放。
住建部政策研究中心原副主任王珏林表示，中央对房地产市场的态度将由需求管理转向供给管理，下一步既要增加供给，又要释放存量。“楼市调控的任务和责任应下沉给地方，对个别房价上涨过快的城市要适时约谈，共同寻找房价上涨过快的原因，制定行之有效的办法。”据新华社电
(原标题：房价难控，问责制会否“爽约”？)
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