Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/6 10:19:41 Local media： local bond issues in China increasing pressure for reform
January 6, the South China Morning Post of Hong Kong Chinese 5th signed articles published in the national pressure for reform of local government debt increases, the article refers to, rapidly to increase local government debt in China, have significantly increased the systemic risk. But unsustainable debt accumulation rate of local governments on the one hand, it is a serious problem, but it is not lethal, on the other hand also has time to properly address the issue of local government debt of the Central Government, only increases the pressure on State reform.
Article excerpts are as follows:
On December 30, 2013, the National Audit Office post of the national government debt audit results, the Central, provincial, municipal, County and township government debt undertook a comprehensive audit. Audit report for the National Audit Office last released in 2011, only audit the provincial, municipal and county-level local government finances. Therefore, the findings may be more accurate. The National Audit Office report estimated that by the end of June 2013, local government debt amounted to 17.9 trillion yuan.
Local government debt registered 10.7 trillion yuan in 2010, while in 2012 to 12.1 trillion yuan. This year, new data shows that local government debt due at the end of June 2013, up more than and 67% in 2010 and 2012, respectively. In other words, local government debt soared in the past three years.
According to previous official data, we estimate that the level of the risk-weighted capital ratio of the banking system (until the end of 2012) is 10.6%, the then local government debt totalled 12.1 trillion yuan. This figure is still far from the minimum requirements of Basel III 7%. Coupled with the CBRC provides up-to-date information on the latest national audit Office report serve to illustrate the potential for systemic risk. And the potential for systemic risk was always plagued the Chinese stock market is a big problem.
As at the end of June 2013, bad loans in the banking system is 539.5 billion yuan (total loan amount 0.96%); bad loans going to amount to 1.5 trillion yuan. The loan loss provision ratio of 278%. If compared with the National Audit Office's last report, the rates below 298% per cent by the end of 2012, but still higher than international standards.
Local government debt under Bank data show that potential loan losses and bad debt recovery rate of 25% (according to CBRC data), we estimated that 17.9 trillion yuan of local government debts, the level of the risk-weighted capital ratio of the banking system from reduced to less than 10.6%. That is, unless the Bank over the past year to increase its stake in risk-weighted assets, or risk buffers will affect the banking system. But there is no detailed information on risk-weighted assets.
Local government debt ratio increased rapidly, greatly increased systemic risk. Because of the rate of local government debts accumulated unsustainable, it is a serious problem, but it is not lethal.
This is due to following several causes: 1, and capital account closed; 2, and Central Government implementation hidden guarantees policy; 3, and Central Government can called of financial resources ample; 4, and debt to Yuan pricing and to domestic debt mainly; 5, and overall,, debt burden is unlikely to: Central Government debt accounted for GDP about 22%; including Central, and place and the levels government institutions zainei of overall government debt about accounted for 53%; overall economic loan about accounted for GDP of 190% (given China capital markets is not developed, This rate is not high enough).
Most important is, the Central Government has no hands. Central governments are progressively address the issue of local government debt, and implement a tight monetary policy, forcing the local Government to deleverage and control bank lending. In the short term, risks are mainly from the 24% contingent liabilities (that is, from the local government debt amounted to 17.9 trillion yuan of which 4.3 trillion yuan).
In short, the Central Government has time to properly handle local government debt problem. XI Jinping, most recently as head of the Central leading group on comprehensive reform, responsible for promoting structural reform. Structural reforms need to reform local government finance system. (Luo Nianci)
(Original title: Hong Kong media: Chinese local government debt problems increasing pressure for reform)
中新网1月6日电 香港《南华早报》中文网5日刊载署名文章《地方债增加国家改革压力》，文章指，中国地方政府债务比率迅速增长，已大幅增加系统性风险。但一方面地方政府债务累积率不可持续，因此问题很严重，但尚不至于致命程度，另一方面中央政府也有时间妥善处理地方政府债务问题，只是目前的情况增加了国家改革的压力。
文章摘编如下：
2013年12月30日，国家审计署发布《全国政府性债务审计结果》，对中央、省、市、县、乡政府性债务情况进行了全面审计。国家审计署上次发布审计报告是2011年，当时仅审计了省、市及县级地方政府财政状况。因此，此次审计结果可能更加准确。国家审计署报告估计，截至2013年6月底，地方政府债务总额达17.9万亿人民币。
地方政府债务于2010年录得10.7万亿人民币，而2012年录得12.1万亿人民币。今年新数据显示，截止于2013年6月底的地方政府债务，较2010年及2012年分别上涨逾67%及50%。换言之，地方政府债务于过去三年暴涨。
根据之前的官方数据，我们估计中国银行系统中风险加权一级资本比率(至2012年底)为10.6%，当时地方政府债务总数为12.1万亿人民币。这一数据仍远于《巴塞尔协议III》中7%的最低要求。加上银监会提供的最新资料，国家审计署的最新报告有助于说明潜在的系统性风险。而这个潜在的系统性风险一直是困扰中国股市的一大问题。
截止于2013年6月底，银行系统中不良贷款金额为5395亿人民币(占全部贷款额0.96%)；呆账准备金额为1.5万亿人民币。这表示贷款损失准备金比率为278%。若与国家审计署上次报告比较，这比率低于截止2012年底的298%，但仍高于国际标准。
根据银行承担地方政府债务的相关数据显示，潜在贷款损失及坏账回收率为25%(根据银监会资料)，因此我们估计，17.9万亿人民币的地方政府债务，将把银行系统风险加权一级资本比率从10.6%减至少于7.0%。也就是说，除非银行在过去一年增持风险加权资产，否则将影响银行系统中风险缓冲作用。但目前尚没有详细的风险加权资产资料。
地方政府债务比率迅速增长，已大幅增加系统性风险。由于地方政府债务累积率不可持续，因此问题很严重，但尚不至于致命程度。
这是由于以下几个原因：1、资本账户封闭；2、中央政府实施隐性担保政策；3、中央政府可调用的财政资源充裕；4、债务以人民币计价和以国内债务为主；5、整体而言，债务负担不大：中央政府债务占GDP约22%；包括中央、地方及各级政府机构在内的整体政府债务约占53%；整体经济贷款约占GDP的190%(鉴于中国资本市场尚不发达，这一比率并不过高)。
最重要的是，中央政府不会袖手不管。中央政府正逐步处理地方政府债务问题，并实施紧缩货币政策，迫使地方政府去杠杆化并控制银行系统放贷。在短期内，风险主要来自24%的或有债务(即来自地方政府债务总额为17.9万亿人民币其中的4.3万亿人民币)。
简而言之，中央政府有时间妥善处理地方政府债务问题。习近平最近任中央全面深化改革领导小组组长，负责推动结构改革。而结构改革有需要改革地方政府的财政制度。(罗念慈)
（原标题：港媒：中国地方债问题增加国家改革压力）
赞