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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/8 8:56:54 Wait-and-see Sino-Korean trade zone： part of North Korean trading companies in China return
Return of Dandong businessman found in some of the North Korean company to China
Businessmen from the Chinese side or the incorporation of investment in Yanbian's optimistic message
On December 17, 2013, many North Koreans in China people in Dandong yalujiang broken bridge area. Here are the Korean Consulate General in Shenyang permanent Office is located in Dandong, before they came to mark the second anniversary of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.
The North Korean Government executions known as "second person" said after Jang, which is North Korea's first anniversary of national importance. Towards the investment of Chinese businessmen attended the commemoration, they try to by clues to judge the future of Chinese attitudes.
Fear well justified, towards the joint development and management in the rason economic and trade zone and Huang Jinping, wafer economic zone on the island, he was the main promoter towards the side.
Dandong businessman noted that North Korea led to some trading companies in China have returned to the country; Yanbian's businesses may have been Chinese or forming a company to invest in an optimistic message.
Low-key Gold zone
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il before the second anniversary of the death, North Korea held a grand ceremony. The event attracted the eyes of the world, December 12, 2013, has been considered as North Korea "second person" he was executed, observers counting North Korea to attend the commemoration of the absence of political figures, analysis of the Korean Council of direction.
Memorial ceremony in Dandong, China, and attended by Chinese businessmen are trying to use the same way to make their early to avoid risk. A donggang businessmen found, some staff members to China does not appear in the ceremonies, he was told, these people have been returned to North Korea. Another Dandong businessman told the same story, too. They did not tell reporters the names of these people in the South, but in the same day a year ago, a similar situation did not happen.
Merchants fear North Korean people after returning to China, North Korea will be more massive political purge, in turn, will affect their investments. Former donggang businessman has iron ore, hotels and other businesses in North Korea, their liaison officers, that these investments were not affected for the time being, you can still continue to operate. Has a close relationship with North Korean officials, who still did not put down the worries, "what will happen in the future, don't know", what they are doing, only maintaining the operation of the project, wait-and-see caution.
Smaller border trade companies are lucky, the political changes in North Korea took place at the time of the year is drawing to a close. A border trade company managers say pan, North Korea implemented a planned economy, indicators have almost reached the end of political changes have little effect, but to leave them enough time to wait-and-see. Head of another border trading company surnamed Sun is relatively optimistic, he finds that border trade of small goods closer to everyday life, suffer less likely.
After Jang was executed, for normal opening of the port in Dandong district, laden vehicles still lined up for customs clearance procedures. By contrast, Huang Jinping, wafer economic zone is for someone to the island.
Since the beginning of 2010, North Korea's former leader Kim Jong Il visited China three times in a row, with China on the establishment of economic and trade area and Huang Jinping, Wei Luo at of the consensus of the economic zone on the island, he highly involved. In 2011, he attended the gold economic zone development launch. After the death of Kim Jong-Il, he is considered to be advancing towards the side key figures developed two economic zones. In August 2012, Mr Chang's visit to China, Huang Jinping, wafer was signed on behalf of the DPRK and China joint development deal the island, economic zone management Committee was formed during this period.
As the first developer of the two islands, ping rapid development of the economic zone of gold into the honeymoon. On September 15 of that year, gold Office Building Foundation of the CMC, CMC officially recruiting staff, investment in the economic zone will be held immediately. Dandong starting official publicity surrounding new Yalu River Bridge, the Golden island and Granville Island "bridge Islands" of urban development strategies.
According to media reports in mid-December 2012 side is expected to see the gold economic zone in Dandong, workers busily advancing the project.
But now, gold development in the economic zone becomes low. Gold, new property developments at a temporary Office of the CMC in the economic zone, one staff member said the Foundation office a year ago "not covered". CMC and construction of the economic zone's external principle is "don't advertise". 2013, the CMC held entrepreneur meeting, describes the construction of economic zone of gold, but the meeting content is not publicly available. On December 18, 2013, in the economic zone on the gold floor, described in the media in the once-booming construction scene you do not see, only a few diggers parked on entrances in the economic zone, planning in the district, there are no construction signs.
Rason economic and trade zones hot and cold
Economic zone rason economic and trade area and Huang Jinping, Waffle island start simultaneously, but North Korea actually developed earlier to rason. -Yanbian State hunchun border economic and trade areas, as is mentioned in the judgement of Jang, prompting more speculation.
In 1994, North Korea set up Luo Tianjin-Vanguard municipality, became the free economic and trade zone early. In 2010, Kim Jong Il's visit to China, rason was upgraded to a special municipality and amend the rason economic and trade zones Act. Since then, developed and joint management of the Romanian economic and trade agreements, the rason economic and trade zones act again amended, and in 2012 has been implemented. This law determines, there are plans to set up in the economic and trade area, international logistics, equipment manufacturing to high-tech industry, processing industry, light industry, service industry, modern agriculture, mainly industrial area.
Rason to China, its ice-free ports have great development value, from the port of the Japan Sea and maritime logistics, development of the Northeast region is significant.
Hunchun, East Economic and trade Corporation in 2005 that is trying to develop Rajin port. In August of that year, East company zone bonded Ltd and hunchun border economic cooperation as China's investment, with North Korea's rason economic cooperation Bureau of the municipal people's Committee established the international logistics joint venture clubs of North Korea's rason, plans to create "road, port".
"Road port" project plan construction of Ting to Rajin, Won Chinese standards of secondary roads, rebuilding rason port Pier 3rd, construction of industrial parks and bonded zones.
Donglin Fan Yingsheng, company Chairman, said this project had been North Korea's domestic political constraints. Complex situation on the Korean peninsula, the Korean Central Government with political, coupled with North Korea not members of the ADB, the World Bank, and subject to international sanctions due to nuclear testing, project financing difficult. Eventually, the "road port" project failed to achieve, which is the most common dilemma for Chinese enterprises to invest in North Korea.
In 2012, after the rason economic and trade zone was officially launched, the first project, Yuan Ting-Luo Xian road-building, construction and rental of rason port, see "road port" shadow.
Passage of time, not East forest companies to implement these projects, Fan Yingsheng, however still more large-scale enterprises, to invest in the rason economic and trade zone. But he was once again under the impact of North Korea's domestic politics, Jang led him to postpone the event.
And for ordinary farmers residing in estuarine shore, Jang incident on their direct impact is that Luo at the casino closed, reduced Chinese visiting the North Korean Casino, restaurants and shops deserted.
But Fan Yingsheng to rason economic and trade prospects remain optimistic, he found that the rason economic and trade zone construction is Kim Jong Il's decision, rather than his brother-in-law. One business information sources was equally optimistic, rason economic and trade zone development validation is an act of State, or will in the near future on the Chinese side to form a mixed ownership enterprises to invest.
"Good for Sino-Korean economic cooperation"
December 2013, the Yanbian University of North Korea Studies Center Director Jin Qiang has been traveling four times, taking part in the seminar on North Korea.
In recent years, the Korea media year will analyze of the DPRK's foreign trade total weighting, judge North Korea's economic dependence on China. One theory is that in 2007, this proportion is 67%, and have been rising, to per cent by 2011. One of North China's import volume is greater than its exports to China.
2013 1 trade with the North of Liaoning province, exported 10. $ 6.8 billion, an increase of 6.18% and imports us $ 819 million, down 1.41%. Also take into account since April, China's strict implementation of United Nations sanctions resolution against North Korea.
High degree of economic dependence on China, is one of the reasons for North Korea not to rush into change. For China, the Jin Qiang believes that stability on the Korean peninsula to facilitate China's development, opened the rason economic and trade area, can significantly reduce the logistics cost of the economic development in Northeast China for China's layout is also very beneficial in Northeast Asia, "the economic cooperation will be better for North Korea."
From the perspective of international politics, Jin Qiang analysis, stability on the Korean peninsula is conducive to China's development. He enumerated since late Qing, and adverse effects of the change in the situation on the Korean peninsula to China.
Lv Chao served as the Liaoning Provincial Academy of social sciences, North Korea Research Center, has been retired, but remains concerned about the Sino-North Korean relations. He says, appeared before North Korean trading company replaced the leadership as a result of interest in cooperating with Chinese enterprises, Chinese business people causes worries are not entirely unfounded, but Jang incident, there is no such situation arises.
Gold Lv Chao identity construction of the economic zone has been slow, but he believes that for a reason. "Joint development and management, after all, is something new, such as legal, jurisdictional issues need to be addressed, not just the hardware construction. ”
South reporter Tan Zhuo from Dandong, Yanbian
(See Sino-Korean trade zone)
丹东商人发现部分朝鲜驻中国商社人员返回
延边商人则得到中方或组建公司投资的乐观消息
2013年12月17日，许多在华朝鲜人出现在丹东市鸭绿江断桥一带。这里是朝鲜驻沈阳总领事馆常驻丹东办公室所在，他们来此纪念去世两周年的朝鲜前最高领导人金正日。
朝鲜当局处决素有“二号人物”之称的张成泽后，这是朝鲜第一个全国性重要纪念日。一些在朝投资的中国商人参加了纪念活动，他们试图通过蛛丝马迹判断朝鲜未来对中资的态度。
担忧不无道理，中朝共同开发和管理的罗先经济贸易区和黄金坪、威化岛经济区，张成泽曾是朝方主力推动者。
丹东的商人注意到，朝鲜部分驻中国商社的领导已返回国内；延边的商人则得到了中方或组建公司投资的乐观消息。
低调的黄金坪经济区
朝鲜前最高领导人金正日去世两周年纪念日，朝鲜国内举行了隆重的纪念仪式。这次活动吸引了全世界的目光，2013年12月12日，一直被视为朝鲜“二号人物”的张成泽遭到处决，观察家们细数出席与缺席纪念活动的朝鲜政治人物，分析朝鲜政局的走向。
在中国丹东的纪念仪式上，出席的中国商人们正试图用同样的方式，让自己及早规避风险。一名东港市商人发现，一些原驻华工作人员并没有在仪式中露面，有人告诉他，这些人已经返回朝鲜。另一名丹东市的商人也获知了同样的消息。他们并没有向南都记者透露这些人的名字，但在一年前的同一日，类似的情况并没有发生。
商人们担忧，驻华朝鲜人士返国之后，朝鲜国内会出现更大规模的政治整肃，继而影响他们在朝投资。前述东港市商人在朝鲜拥有铁矿、酒店等生意，他们联络了在朝人员，得知这些投资暂时未受影响，仍可继续运作。尽管与朝鲜官方有着紧密的关系，这些商人们仍没有放下忧虑，“将来会发生什么还不知道”，他们现时能做的，只有维持项目运营，谨慎观望。
规模较小的边贸公司则庆幸，此次朝鲜的政局变动发生在一年行将结束之时。某边贸公司潘经理称，朝鲜实行计划经济，年底各项指标差不多已经达成，政局变动影响不大，而且给他们留下了足够的观望时间。另一家边贸公司孙姓负责人则相对乐观，他认为边境贸易数额小，商品接近日常生活，遭受影响的可能性小。
张成泽遭处决后，位于丹东市区的口岸正常开放，载货车辆仍在排队办理报关手续。相比之下，黄金坪、威化岛经济区则少有人至。
自2010年始，朝鲜原最高领导人金正日连续三次访华，与中国达成了建立罗先经贸区和黄金坪、威化岛经济区的共识，张成泽高度参与其中。2011年，张成泽出席了黄金坪经济区开发启动仪式。金正日去世后，张成泽被认为是朝方推进两个经济区开发的主要人物。2012年8月，张成泽访华，代表朝鲜与中国签署了黄金坪、威化岛的合作开发协议，经济区管理委员会在此期间宣告成立。
作为两岛的首先开发者，黄金坪经济区的发展迅速进入蜜月期。当年9月15日，黄金坪管委会办公楼奠基，管委会正式招聘工作人员，经济区投资说明会随即举行。丹东官方开始宣传围绕新鸭绿江大桥、黄金坪岛和威化岛进行的“一桥两岛”城市发展战略。
据媒体报道称，2012年12月中旬，从丹东一侧可望见黄金坪经济区内，工人繁忙地推进工程。
但是现在，黄金坪经济区的发展变得低调。黄金坪经济区管委会在一处新建楼盘临时办公，一位工作人员称，一年前奠基的办公楼“还没盖呢”。管委会及经济区建设对外的原则是“不宣传”。2013年，管委会曾召开企业家座谈会，介绍黄金坪经济区的建设情况，但会议内容并未对外公开。2013年12月18日，在黄金坪经济区，在媒体描述中曾经如火如荼的施工场景已看不到，只有数辆挖掘机停在经济区出入口，规划中的配套区目前也没有建造迹象。
罗先经贸区冷热
罗先经贸区与黄金坪、威化岛经济区同时启动，但朝鲜对罗先的实际开发更早。这个与延边州珲春市接壤的经贸区，因为在张成泽的判决书中被提及，由此引发了更多猜测。
1994年，朝鲜设立罗津-先锋直辖市，成为了早期的自由经济贸易地带。2010年，金正日访华前夕，罗先升格为特别市，并修改了《罗先经贸区法》。此后，中朝协定共同开发和共同管理罗先经贸区，《罗先经贸区法》再度修改，并于2012年实施至今。该法确定，在经济贸易区内有计划地设立以高新技术产业、国际物流业、装备制造业、一次加工工业、轻工业、服务业、现代农业为主的产业区。
罗先之于中国，其不冻港有很大发展价值，从该港口经日本海的海运物流，对东北地区的发展意义重大。
珲春东林经贸公司在2005年即试图开发罗津港码头。当年8月，东林公司与珲春边境经济合作区保税有限公司一起作为中国投资方，与朝鲜罗先市人民委员会经济协作局共同组建了朝鲜罗先国际物流合营会社，计划打造“路港区”。
“路港区”项目计划建设朝鲜元汀至罗津的中国标准二级公路，改建罗先港3号码头，建设工业园区和保税区等。
东林公司董事长范应生称，这一项目受到了朝鲜国内政治因素的制约。朝鲜半岛局势复杂，朝鲜中央政府以政治为重，加之朝鲜非亚行、世行成员国，并因核试验受到国际制裁，项目筹措资金困难。最终，“路港区”项目未能如愿实现，这是中资企业投资朝鲜最常见的困境。
2012年，罗先经贸区正式启动后，最先进行的项目中，元汀至罗先的公路建设、建设并租用罗先港码头等均能看到“路港区”的影子。
时过境迁，落实这些项目的并非东林公司，但范应生仍在联系更大规模企业，在罗先经贸区进行投资。但他再次受到了朝鲜国内政局的影响，张成泽事件令他的计划推迟。
而对于在圈河口岸边居住的普通农民，张成泽事件对他们的直接影响是，罗先的赌场停业，前往朝鲜赌场的中国人减少，饭店和商店门可罗雀。
但范应生仍对罗先经贸区前景保持乐观，他认定，罗先经贸区的建设是金正日的决定，而非张成泽。一位商界消息人士透露了同样乐观的信息，罗先经贸区开发确认是国家行为，中方或将于近期组建一家混合所有制企业进行投资。
“经济合作对中朝都有好处”
2013年12月以来，延边大学朝鲜韩国研究中心主任金强一已经出差四次，参与有关朝鲜的研讨会。
近年来，韩国媒体每年会分析中国占朝鲜对外贸易总量的比重，判断朝鲜经济对中国的依赖度。一种说法是，2007年这一比重是67%，并逐年攀升，至2011年达到89.1%。这其中，朝鲜对中国的进口贸易额大于其对中国的出口。
辽宁省2013年1至9月份对朝贸易，出口额为10 .68亿美元，同比增长6.18%，进口额则为8.19亿美元，同比减少1.41%。这还要考虑4月以来，中国严格执行联合国对朝鲜的制裁决议。
对中国经济依赖度高，是朝鲜不敢贸然改变的原因之一。对于中国，金强一则认为，朝鲜半岛的稳定利于中国的发展，罗先经贸区的打开，能够大大降低东北地区经济发展的物流成本，对于中国布局东北亚也非常有利，“经济合作对中朝都有好处”。
从国际政治角度，金强一分析，朝鲜半岛稳定才有利于中国的发展。他历数了自清末以来，朝鲜半岛局势有变对中国造成的不利影响。
吕超曾担任辽宁省社科院朝鲜韩国研究中心主任，虽然已经退休，但仍然关注中朝关系。他称，以往出现过朝鲜商社领导更换而导致与之合作的中国企业利益受损的情况，中国商人的担忧并非毫无根由，但张成泽事件之后，暂时还没有出现此类情况。
吕超认同黄金坪经济区建设缓慢，但他认为事出有因。“共同开发和管理毕竟是新事物，有例如法律、管辖权等等问题需要解决，不仅仅是硬件建设。”
南都记者 张晗 发自丹东、延边
(观望中朝经贸区)
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