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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/10 8:26:47 US scholar says China in the South China Sea “stick“ diplomacy， without cost to the PLA
According to the reference News reported on January 10, "Japan of foreign scholars Web site on January 9 article" title: Chinese in the South China Sea "stick" diplomacy coming back (the United States Naval War College Professor zhanmusi·huomusi)
In an article about China's recent attempts to control the Sea article, associated press kelisituofu·boding's wording is very good. He wrote that Beijing is strengthening the South China Sea, "police power".
Last November, the Hainan Provincial people's Congress passed provisions requiring the foreign fishermen must obtain permission may only be in the operating area of the South China Sea, about two-thirds.
Washington freedom Lighthouse Bill Gates provided a map of the network, outlines the scope of affected regions. Worth noting is that this region is not across the "nine lines" within the entire area, and Beijing's claim that "nine lines" within the entire area has "indisputable sovereignty".
Is the author of the following several points of view on the matter. First, the areas and outside observers do not respond to this trend were too shocked. China's sovereignty over the South China Sea claims dating back to decades ago. For example, the "nine lines" maps as early as the People's Republic of China prior to the establishment has appeared, it could be 100 years ago. In 1974, the Chinese forces in the Paracel Islands (Paracel Islands--I note the website) give the South Vietnamese fleet. Until now, Chinese naval forces with neighbouring countries conflicts occasionally – sometimes violent conflict, but more often just a skirmish. Until now, only accelerated.
Secondly, Bodine "police power" words very pertinent. According to the definition of a lawyer, "police power" has a double meaning. A refers to the countries within the territory to maintain law and order, known as "police" the ordinary meaning of the word. Refers to the health, well-being and morals of the population service. China, meaning new rules apply. China tries to claim sovereignty over maritime and island areas to implement the law of the State, as if the sovereignty issue has been settled. And it's non-military assets are used, rather than the army, legitimacy challenge to emphasize the judicial power does not exist in China.
This is what I have been saying for the past few years, "stick" diplomacy. In many respects, small Rod-China-China maritime police and other law enforcement tools – more than a cut its troops in Southeast Asia. So why not look that will not offend someone else's vessel in disputed waters to maintain law and order and stick, people's Liberation Army sit on their hands, just in case? If there is no effective counter, slowly, the region has established a new normal.
Thirdly, almost certainly, Hainan provisions enacted by the legislature would not pose a challenge to freedom of navigation. United States openly declared their interest lies in freedom of navigation in the region. The Chinese spokesman took pains to deny that any such challenge appears after implementation of new rules. To prevent foreign fishing vessels entering a specific area, meant to force Governments in the disputed waters to accept China's domestic laws. This is the purpose of the Chinese people, isn't it?
IV, South China Sea, a vast expanse, is not easy to control. Bodine estimates that new rules applicable to sea area of 2 million square kilometers. China had plenty of maritime police in the South China Sea two-thirds law enforcement in the region? I expressed doubts about this.
This randomness means that law enforcement might have. The people's Liberation Army may have to be involved in law enforcement. Once this would trigger widespread resistance.
It's hard to imagine South East Asia Government-any Government-this thing has an interest to accept Beijing's approach. If China had developed a no comply with the law, what happens? Let us wait and see.
据《参考消息》1月10日报道，【日本《外交学者》杂志网站1月9日文章】题：中国在南中国海的“小棒外交”卷土重来(作者 美国海军军事学院教授詹姆斯·霍姆斯)
在一篇有关中国最近试图控制海面的文章中，美联社记者克里斯托弗·博丁的措辞很好。他写道，北京正在加强南中国海“警察权”。
去年11月，海南省人大表决通过规定，要求外国渔民须取得许可，才可在南中国海约三分之二的区域内作业。
华盛顿自由灯塔网的比尔·格茨提供了一张地图，勾勒出了受影响区域范围。值得注意的是，这一区域并未横跨“九段线”内整个海域，而北京声称对“九段线”内整个海域拥有“无可争辩的主权”。
以下是笔者对此事的几点看法。第一，地区和地区之外的观察家不应对这种动向感到太震惊。中国对南中国海的主权声索可追溯至数十年前。例如，“九段线”地图早在中华人民共和国成立前就已经出现，可能是100年前的事了。1974年，中国部队在帕拉塞尔群岛(即我西沙群岛——本网注)痛击南越舰队。直到今天，中国与邻国海上部队的冲突也时有发生——有时是激烈冲突，但更多的时候只是小冲突。现在来看，只不过步伐加快了。
第二，博丁的“警察权”用词十分贴切。根据律师的定义，“警察权”有双重含义。一是指在国家领土范围内维持治安，也就是“警察”一词的通常意义。二是指为民众的健康、福祉和道德服务。中国的新规定适用第一种含义。中国试图在其声称拥有主权的海域和岛屿执行该国法律，仿佛主权问题已尘埃落定一样。而且它使用的是非军事资产，而不是解放军，以强调中国司法权不存在合法性挑战。
这就是过去几年我一直所说的“小棒外交”。从很多方面来看，中国的小棒——中国海警和其他执法工具——比东南亚军队更胜一筹。所以为什么不用看起来不会冒犯他人的船只在争议海域维持治安，而大棒，即解放军按兵不动以防万一呢？如果没有人有效反制，慢慢地该地区就建立起一种新的常态了。
第三，几乎可以肯定，海南立法机构所颁布的规定不会对地区航行自由构成挑战。美国公开宣称该地区的航行自由是其利益所在。中国发言人煞费苦心地否认新规实施后会出现任何此类挑战。阻止外国渔船进入特定区域，意味着迫使相关国家政府在争议海域接受中国国内法律。这就是中国人的目的，难道不是吗？
但第四，南中国海广阔浩瀚，不易监管。博丁估计，新规所适用的海域面积为200万平方公里。中国有足够的海警在南中国海三分之二区域内执法吗？对此我表示怀疑。
这意味着执法工作可能具有随意性。解放军可能不得不参与执法。一旦这样，就会引发大范围的反抗。
很难想像东南亚政府—一任何与此事有利害关系的政府——接受北京的做法。如果中国制定了一项无人遵守的法律，会出现什么情况？让我们拭目以待。
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