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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/20 9:16:23 Multi-agency forecast for 2013 GDP growth by 7.7%
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2013 economic performance released today. Many agencies, in 2013, China's GDP growth to around 7.7% per cent. This was meant fourth-quarter GDP growth to 2013, compared with the third quarter slowdown 0.1%.
The first financial daily in an interview several businessmen said, the slowing process will last until the middle of this year, economic turning point will appear in the second half.
GDP slowdown decompression M2
Affected by weaker demand for exports slowed, and factors such as overcapacity, decline for two consecutive quarters in the first half of last year, growth in the first quarter, second quarter, 7.7%, respectively. Faced with a slowing trend, the Chinese Government released further reforms in the second half dividends, increase structural adjustment efforts, cultivating new hot consumption spots to guide market expectations. In a series of "steady growth" policy role, the economy began to rebound, GDP growth in the third quarter to 7.8%.
Many forecasters report shows that recent indicators such as industrial production, credit, consumption and export, 2013 four quarters will maintain overall good, but even on base effects, GDP per cent growth is likely to be slightly down. Preliminary estimated 2013 7.7% per cent GDP growth for the year, slightly less than five years of 2012, this will be the lowest growth rate since 1999.
Is widely seen as a stabilising economy significantly, but several problems with China's economy in 2013 will still run had a significant impact on the economy over time. Final consumption on the rate of economic growth in a sharp decline in economic growth is increasingly dependent on investment, economic adjustment pressure increased; small business operational difficulties, a sharp decline in profit and other questions need to be addressed.
Worthy of note is that during the economic slowdown at the same time, bank credit than the overall downward trend. According to the Central Bank's 15th, 2013 report, at the end of 2013, M2 (broad money) the balance of 110.65 trillion dollars, rose 13.6%, respectively, on the end of November and the end of last year and 0.6.
As the most powerful financial instruments, the intermediate target of monetary policy is still M2. For years, China relies on investment-led the way the economy has been experiencing fast economic growth also makes M2 an sustained and rapid growth. In 2013, the M2 growth rate was 13.6%, compared to per cent in 2010 and per cent in 2011, which is undoubtedly the policy expected slowdown also eased pressure on the Central Bank's monetary policy.
Inflexion or occur during the year
For this year's start, economists have different views. Many economists believe China's economy will continue to slow down the trend. Economists point out that, given that the Chinese Government efforts to limit credit growth, has the potential to lower economic growth in the first half of this year. Shadow booster, credit growth has always been considered to be a major risk for Chinese economy, the Government has taken a number of measures in the past months in an attempt to solve this problem, predict the future regulation will be more strict.
But Deutsche Bank Managing Director and Chief Economist for greater China, ' do not agree with, he believed that further recovery in 2014 GDP of China.
Recently, the Director of the Center for China in the world economy of Tsinghua University Li daokui said in a public lecture, the beginning of 2014 will continue slowing trend of the end of 2013, 2014 years will make a policy adjustment, GDP for the year prior to rendering low-high trend, GDP growth rate was 7.6%.
YINHUA base to be appointed manager of Zou Weina said Wynn debt, economic direction of this year remained stable. From a monetary policy point of view, or the first half of this year continued the neutral policy of tight last year, but after one or two quarters, more monetary easing.
Minsheng securities Vice President Guan Qingyou said in an interview with this newspaper, steady economic development tends to be certain, but many disturbance factors is uncertain.
These uncertainties is that liquidity remained tight and warm winter weather causes inflation down, fears about deflation. In addition, the Central Bank is still based on the subjective intention of tightening. Banks sound prudent keynote policy unchanged, continues to rely on money central forced adjustments of assets and liabilities of financial institutions.
As a result of the effects of monetary policy, China's bond market is still not promising in the short term. Benchmark Shanghai composite index of Chinese stock market in 2013 become the worst-performing major stock market index in the world, 2014-opening-year trend is very negative, since January, has dropped by about 4.4%.
Zou Weina believes that, from the point of view for the year, if the analysis of macroeconomic and monetary policies such as lower high, the bond market will usher in the corner.
Devoting major efforts to developing the real economy
Despite the slowdown in China's economy and outside the general analysis that are subject to two factors, macroeconomic performance persistence of deep-seated contradictions and problems are increasingly constraining China's stable and fast recovery.
Many economists suggested that the real economy and fictitious economy integration becomes more and more important, if closer integration of finance and industry, will be able to create new value faster, but once the financial "industry" ego inflation, will inevitably lead to crisis.
Fudan University School of management Professor of finance Kong Aiguo also suggested that in recent years represented by the Internet's emerging economy grow rapidly become a new engine for economic growth and at the same time, the real economy is constrained by many factors and develop slowly. He suggested that China should accelerate the development of the real economy in the future, "development of the real economy is inextricably linked to macroeconomic trends and trends in corporate finance, is the basis of the real economy, is the source of the new economy. ”
(Original title: multi-agency forecast 2013 GDP growth 7.7% qianjinhousong of monetary policy this year)
王子约
2013年经济运行情况今日公布。多家机构预，2013年中国GDP同比增速将在7.7%左右。这意味着2013年第四季度GDP增速为7.7%，较第三季度放缓0.1个百分点。
《第一财经日报》采访的多名经济界人士表示，这一放缓过程或将延续至今年年中，经济拐点或将出现在下半年。
GDP放缓 M2减压
受出口放缓、需求减弱和产能过剩等因素影响，去年上半年我国经济连续两个季度回落，一季度、二季度增速分别为7.7%、7.5%。面对经济不断放缓的趋势，中国政府在下半年进一步释放改革红利，加大结构调整力度，培育消费新热点，引导市场预期。在一系列“稳增长”政策作用下，经济开始企稳回升，三季度GDP增长至7.8%。
多家预测机构报告显示，从最近工业生产、信贷、消费和出口等指标来看，2013年四季度经济将保持总体向好，但受上年高基数影响，GDP同比增速可能会小幅回落。初步预计2013年全年GDP增长7.7%左右，略低于2012年的7.8%，这也将是1999年以来的最低增速。
尽管普遍认为中国经济企稳明显，但2013年中国经济存在的若干问题仍将在一段时间内对经济运行产生重大影响。最终消费对经济增长的贡献率大幅度下降；经济增长更加依赖投资，经济调整压力加重；小微企业经营困难、利润急剧下降等问题亟待解决。
值得注意的是，在经济增速放缓的同时，银行信贷占比也呈现整体下降的趋势。根据央行15日发布的2013年统计报告，2013年末，M2(广义货币)余额为110.65万亿元，同比增长13.6%，分别比去年11月末和上年末低0.6和0.2个百分点。
作为最强有力的金融工具，货币政策的中间目标仍是M2。多年来，中国依靠投资拉动经济的方式使得经济一直处在高速增长之中，也使得M2以持续较快的速度增长。2013年，M2增速为13.6%，相比2010年的19.7%和2011年的13.6%，这无疑是政策所期望的放缓，也缓解了央行货币政策的压力。
拐点或在年中出现
对于今年经济的开局，经济学界有不同的看法。不少经济学家认为中国经济将继续放缓趋势。有经济学家指出，考虑到中国政府限制信贷增长的积极努力，今年上半年经济增速有可能更低。受影子银行助推，信贷增长一直被认为是中国经济的一个主要风险，政府过去几个月采取了多项措施来试图解决这个问题，预测未来监管将更加严格。
但德意志银行董事总经理、大中华区首席经济学家马骏并不认同，他乐观认为，2014年中国GDP将进一步复苏。
近日，清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵在一次公开演讲中称，2014年初会延续2013年底的放缓趋势，2014年年中还会经历一次政策调整，全年GDP呈现前低后高的态势，GDP增长率为7.6%。
银华永利债基拟任经理邹维娜表示，今年经济的大方向保持平稳。从货币政策上看，今年上半年或延续去年中性偏紧的政策，但是一二季度过后，货币政策放松的可能性较大。
民生证券研究院副院长管清友在接受本报采访时称，经济稳中趋缓是确定的，但很多扰动因素又是不确定的。
这些不确定性在于：流动性持续偏紧和暖冬天气导致通胀下行，对通缩的担忧加剧。此外，央行的主观意图仍立足于收紧。央行稳健偏谨慎政策基调不变，继续依靠资金价格中枢倒逼金融机构资产负债调整。
由于受到货币政策的影响，中国债市短期内仍不被看好。中国股市基准指标上证综合指数2013年成为表现最差的世界大型股市指数，2014年开年走势也非常不利，1月以来已经下跌了约4.4%。
邹维娜认为，从全年的角度来看，如果宏观经济及货币政策出现上述所分析的前低后高的情况，债券市场将迎来拐点。
大力发展实体经济
尽管中国经济增速的放缓普遍分析认为受制于内外两个因素，但宏观经济运行中长期存在的深层次矛盾和问题正越来越突出地制约着中国经济的稳定运行和较快复苏。
不少经济学家提出，实体经济与虚拟经济融合显得越来越重要，金融与产业如果紧密融合，就能更快地创造新价值；但是，金融一旦“去实业化”自我膨胀，必将酿成危机。
复旦大学管理学院财务金融系教授孔爱国也提出，近年来以互联网为代表的新兴经济模式增长势头迅猛，成为经济增长新的拉动力，与此同时，实体经济却受制于诸多因素而发展缓慢。他建议未来中国应该加快实体经济的发展，“实体经济的发展与宏观经济走势和企业投融资趋势密不可分，是整个实体经济的基础，是新经济的源泉。”
(原标题：多机构预测2013年GDP增幅7.7% 今年货币政策前紧后松)
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