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The author:(作者)delvpublished in(发表于) 2014/1/23 8:53:28 7.7% behind the macro-policy of economic growth in China
In 2013, China's economic growth to a 7.7%,GDP size reached 56.9 trillion yuan, nearly 5 trillion yuan more than in 2012, this increase is equivalent to 1994, economic output for the year. Both inside and outside in a tough environment, is not easy to get such results, policy is not easy. The next few years, still require solidity, do something innovative macro regulation and maintain steady economic growth in China, and promote the transformation and upgrading of China's economy. It must be recognized that potential growth tapers are economics, policy choices should not be heavily against the wind, should not blindly pursuing "high speed". From the perspective of history, virtually every country develops to a certain stage there will be slower growth. According to the statistics of the World Bank Commission on growth and development, and after World War II, above 7% sustained economic growth economies, only 13 out of 25 years, removed from Botswana, Malta and other countries, the only truly sustained high growth in China, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea, and Malaysia, and Singapore, and Thailand, China, Taiwan, and so on. China is one of the largest economies, is the longest continuous high growth economies, maintaining more than 7% growth for it.
It must be noted that the world economy is undergoing profound changes, the period of strategic opportunity to revisit. After the global financial crisis, the most difficult period has passed, similar years of banking crises and was 2008-09 of the European debt crisis in the short term there would be no return. However, the world economic recovery was still uncertain. Today's scenario, acute conditions come to an end, continuous fermentation of chronic diseases, would be no return to the golden age. First major chronic diseases are highly leveraged in the developed countries. The decline in the level of indebtedness of the private sector in developed countries, but still far above the historical norm. While the United States and other countries the public sector debt levels did not decline, and even climbed, deleveraging of the road is still long ahead. Second largest chronic diseases is high unemployment. This recession has been a jobless recovery and the slow decline in its history. United States jobless rate under the QE booster to 6.7%, but still considerably higher than pre-crisis levels of less than 5%, and labor force participation rates remain at the lowest level since 1978. Euro-zone unemployment rate as high as 12.2%, for the highest level since the establishment of the eurozone, with youth unemployment rate is as high as 24.1%, part of the peripheral countries youth unemployment has even reached 50%. As a typical consumer-driven economies, high unemployment will directly slow recovery in developed economies.
You must know, the traditional pattern of growth is unsustainable, medium-and long-term challenges is far off. Both from a central place, the relationship between investment and consumption and the relationship between the economic and social nature which summed up in terms of traditional Chinese economic growth model could no longer continue. Industrial structural imbalances, the regional gap is too large, the risk accumulation of debt, ecological challenges such as environmental degradation, exacerbated social contradictions have we paid a heavy price. Demographic bonus disappears from long-term challenges to the immediate pressure. 1997-2012, China's overall dependency ratio of the population dropped from 50.2% to 34.9%, creating abundant and cheap labour, laid the Foundation for China's export-led growth model. The next ten years, China's population dependency ratio will gradually pick up, undermining China's demographic dividend. In this process, the slowdown in economic growth is an inevitable trend in the 1990 Japan is instructive.
Thinking and keep their current macro-control policy tone is necessary. In 2013, the "two sessions" in the future, Chinese academics and investors experienced a vigorous policy debate. Some argue that China's economy may face a "hard landing", as well as a "hard landing". We have long noted that China cannot, and will not be allowed in on the policy choices of "shock therapy" must be on the basis of a balance between economic growth and social stability to promote transformation and upgrading. "Shift" and "retarded" cannot be completed in a single day, macro-policies should be introduced, the path technique skills with great care.
Another school of thought that says, 2012 growth is 7.7%, 2013 the first three quarters of the year was 7.7%, 2013 as a whole was 7.7%, more than six years ago, 14.2% difference in almost seven times. In this case, the Government's priority should be to maintain a high growth rate. However, high growth, non-no, not wishing to do it. Restart the traditional growth model, a lot harder, costlier. Proactive adjustment policies and policies, a reasonable interval of tolerance maintained rapid economic and even tolerated local risk free, is a pragmatic and rational thing to do.
Restructuring and upgrading, being stabilized, also need to avoid following their footsteps. We have noted that the Chinese Government's macro-management of significant changes have taken place: broad monetary investments shift to prudent monetary targeted investment, from the "pit water" to "canals of water", shifted from Western medicine to traditional Chinese medicine therapy, policy focus on strengthening markets, deregulation, free vitality, promote reform, improving the supply and guide the expected. This idea is expressed in a central file for integrated and stable growth, adjusting economic structure, promoting reform.
In our view, to keep China's steady economic growth, promoting transformation and upgrading, and still need to adhere to the current macro-control policy and tone, resist pressure on the macro policy, refrain from short-term stimulus, did not increase the deficit, not monetary policy. Steady, steady, closely around the "increase vitality, stabilizing expectations, promote transformation" for reform, innovation and vitality, with reasonable expectation of stability, with the structural adjustment of economies in transition, to build China's real economic transformation and upgrading, achieving ecologically sustainable development of economy and society.
Author of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, panguzhi library, academic, Vice Secretary General of the Council
(Edit: SN091)January 23, 2014 China economic NET(中国经济增长7.7%背后的宏观政策定力|中国经济|失业率|宏观政策_新闻资讯
2013年，中国经济增长达到7.7%，GDP规模达到56.9万亿元人民币，比2012年增加近5万亿元，这一增量相当于1994年全年经济总量。在严峻的内外环境之下，取得这样一个结果十分不易，保持政策定力十分不易。未来几年，仍然需要稳住阵脚，有所作为，坚持创新宏观政策调控方式，保持中国经济平稳增长，推动中国经济转型升级。 必须承认，潜在增速下降是经济规律，政策选择不应逆势而为，不应盲目追求"高速"。从历史上看，几乎所有国家在发展到一定阶段后都会出现增长放缓。根据世界银行增长与发展委员会的统计，二战之后，经济在7%以上持续增长25年的经济体仅有13个，除去博兹瓦纳、马耳他等国家，真正做到持续高增长的仅有中国、巴西、印尼、日本、韩国、马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、中国台湾等。中国既是其中体量最大的经济体，又是持续高速增长时间最长的经济体，保持7%以上的增长实属不易。
必须看到，世界经济格局正在发生深刻变化，战略机遇期要重新审视。全球金融危机之后，最艰难的一段已经过去，类似2008-09年的银行业危机和2009-2012年的欧债危机短期内不会再现。但是，世界经济的复苏仍然充满变数。当下的情形是，急性病告一段落，慢性病持续发酵，黄金时代不会再现。第一大慢性病是发达国家的高杠杆。发达国家的私人部门负债水平虽有所下降，但仍远高于历史正常水平。而美国等国公共部门负债水平不仅没有下降，甚至还有所攀升，未来去杠杆之路仍然漫长。第二大慢性病是居高不下的失业率。本次衰退已经成为有史以来就业恢复最慢的一次衰退。美国失业率虽在QE助推下降至6.7%，但仍大幅高于危机前不足5%的水平，而且，劳动参与率仍处于1978年以来最低水平。欧元区失业率高达12.2%，为欧元区成立以来最高水平，其中青年失业率更是高达24.1%，部分外围国家的青年失业率甚至达到50%。作为典型的消费拉动型经济体，失业率高企将直接拖累发达经济体的复苏。
必须知道，传统的增长模式已经无法持续，中长期的挑战已经近在眼前。无论从中央地方关系、投资消费关系还是从经济社会自然关系等哪个角度来总结，中国传统的经济增长模式都无法再持续下去。产业结构失衡、地区差距过大、债务风险积聚、生态环境恶化、社会矛盾加剧等挑战已经让我们付出了沉重的代价。人口红利的消失正在从长期挑战变为眼前压力。1997-2012年，中国的人口总抚养比从50.2%下降到34.9%，创造了丰富而又廉价的劳动力，为中国的出口导向型增长模式奠定了基础。而未来十年，中国的人口抚养比将逐步回升，不断侵蚀中国的人口红利。在这个过程中，经济增长放缓是必然趋势，1990年代的日本就是前车之鉴。
保持当前的宏观管理思路和政策基调十分必要。2013年"两会"以后，中国学术界和投资人士经历了一场激烈的政策辩论。一部分人认为，中国经济可能面临"硬着陆"，也需要"硬着陆"。我们很早就指出，中国不可能也不允许在政策选择上搞"休克式疗法"，必须在兼顾经济增长和社会稳定的基础上推动转型升级。"换挡"和"减速"不可能在一天之内完成，宏观政策的实施必须方向明确，手法高超，慎之又慎。
另一部分人认为， 2012年经济增速是7.7%，2013年前三季度是7.7%，2013年全年还是7.7%，比六年前的14.2%几乎相差了一倍。这种情况下，政府的重点应该是维持较高的增长速度。但是，超高增速，非不能也，而不为也。重启传统增长模式，困难很多，代价更大。主动调整政策，保持政策定力，容忍经济保持在中高速的合理区间，甚至容忍局部风险释放，是务实和理性之举。
转型升级，稳字当头，也需要避免老路。我们已经注意到，中国政府的宏观管理思路已经发生了重大变化：从宽货币大投资转向稳健货币定向投资，从"挖坑放水"转向"开渠饮水"，从西医疗法转向中医疗法，政策的着力点放在强化市场，放松管制，释放活力，推进改革，改善供给、引导预期。这一思路在中央文件中被表述为统筹稳增长、调结构、促改革。
我们认为，保持中国经济平稳增长，推动转型升级，仍然需要坚持当前的宏观管理思路和政策基调，在宏观政策上顶住压力，不再采取短期刺激政策，既不增加赤字，也不放松银根。一手稳，一手放，稳中有为，紧紧围绕"增活力、稳预期、促转型"，以改革创新增加活力，以合理区间稳定预期，以结构调整促进转型，真正打造中国经济的转型升级版，实现经济社会生态的可持续发展。
作者系民生证券研究院副院长、盘古智库学术委员会秘书长
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