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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/2/1 2:16:11 Retired Major General： Sino-Japanese most likely friction at the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese war years
Evaluation of Kaohsiung, Hong Kong reported on February 1, original title: River Duck: sensitive Sino-Japanese war years need to watch out for Japan army weapons on the rise "The Sino-Japanese war years must guard against Japan in the East China Sea issue, opportunity to recover militarism! "The Taiwan Navy major general Jiang Mo accepted assessment interview, whether the eight-year war or rape of Nanking, China Japan years of bullying, based on Japanese history and ethnic hatred, in the Sino-Japanese war years any action is bound to be each other magnified view, get to know each other more sensitive nerves taut. The Sino-Japanese war years was a special year.
Jiang Mo, born in 1940, native of Anhui sixian, 1949, Naval Academy issue 58, revolutionary practice Institute graduates. In 1988, retired Rear Admiral, in Kaohsiung Harbor served as a pilot.
River duck analysis, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine is on the horizon, "Japan Samurai" spirit with which the main purpose is for the development of military weapons to find normality. So, beware of the Sino-Japanese war years Japan and China in the East China Sea of friction, in case of exchange of fire on both sides, I am afraid that Abe had legitimate excuses.
MO Jiang pointed out that "the soldier why war? Looking back on history, strong is where almost all of the country, weak countries is also incorporating ". Observations from Chinese history, is where the Yuan dynasty held sway but dynasty is not a long time, while the weakness of the Song dynasty is also held sway. Taketo stood strong, but many matters that concern them, so short dynastic life, Chinese scholars against.
Jiang Mo believes that military not fighting would have shrunk, not status. Japan servicemen during the second world war was disastrous, pupils are required to salute Army go, reflects the military's high status in society. Japan after its defeat in World War II, SDF officials than even the Chief of an ordinary clerk, spoke more frivolous, useless person, military status are so all over the world.
Jiang Mo analysis, small friction may occur in the East China Sea this year, but local wars are unlikely. Second, mainland China to punish Japan means too much, from a political, economic and other sanctions, military means are placed at the end, China does not need at this time to Japan head.
Once again, China also actively enrich's defense, while Liaoning aircraft carrier, and plans to make 4 aircraft carrier, but the war is, after all, make money, once the war impact on China's overall economy is enormous, and Japan Navy nor the weak, I'm afraid a Mexican standoff.
Based on the above conclusions, MO Jiang believed that Sino-Japanese friction is highly likely, should have little chances of war but, the Sino-Japanese war years, after all, sensitive, should be extra careful. (Reporter Gao Yi extended interview)
(Original title: Major-General: the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese war years was most likely sensitive Sino-Japanese friction)
香港中评社高雄2月1日报道，原题：江鹜：甲午年敏感 需提防日本军武抬头 “甲午年必须提防日本在东海议题上，藉机复苏军国主义！”台湾海军退役少将江鹜接受中评社专访表示，不论是八年抗战或南京大屠杀，中国受日本多年欺凌，基于中日的历史与民族仇恨，两国在甲午年任何动作势必会被对方放大检视，也让彼此神经更加地敏感紧绷。甲午年是特殊的一年。
江鹜，1940年生，祖籍安徽省泗县，1949年来台，海军官校58期、革命实践研究院结业。1988年海军少将退役，在高雄港担任引水人。
江鹜分析，日本首相安倍晋三参拜靖国神社的动作就是在鼓噪“日本武士道”精神，主要目的就是想为发展军武寻找正常性。所以，甲午之年要提防日本与中国在东海所发生的大小摩擦，万一双方驳火，恐怕让安倍有名正言顺的藉口。
江鹜指出，“军人为什么要打仗？回顾历史，强的国家都是武人当道、弱的国家都是文人当道”。从中国历史观察，元朝是武人当道但朝代时间不长，而积弱的宋朝则是文人当道。虽武人当道国强，但许多政务顾虑不到，因此朝代寿命短，文人则反。
江鹜认为，军人不打仗就会萎缩、没地位。像日本军人在二次大战时可真不得了，皇军走到哪里小学生都必须敬礼，反映军人在社会上的地位之高。日本在二战战败后，自卫队官员连个普通文员科长都不如，讲话更没份量，成了无用武之地之人，全世界的军人现况都是如此的。
江鹜分析，中日今年在东海可能发生小型摩擦，但要打局部战争应该不太可能。其次，中国大陆要制裁日本的手段太多，从政治、经济等方面就可制裁，军事手段绝对是摆在最后，中国根本不需要在此时对日本硬碰硬。
再次，中国也在积极充实国防武力，现在虽也有辽宁号航母，且计划再自制4艘航母，但打仗毕竟是在打钱，一旦战争，对中国整体经济影响太巨大，况且日本海军也不是弱者，打起来恐怕两败俱伤。
综合以上结论，江鹜认为，中日磨擦极有可能，但发生战争的机率应该不大，惟甲午年毕竟敏感，宜格外注意。(记者 高易伸专访)
(原标题：台少将：甲午年很敏感 中日极有可能爆发摩擦)
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