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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/2/11 10:07:03 Vice President of the Chinese Academy of social sciences： the global financial crisis， entering its second phase
Zhang Ke
Li Yang, Vice President of Cass, said yesterday from the global financial crisis began in 2007 with no past, just entering a new phase, reforms are the only way out of the crisis.
At the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Faculty of Economics held on that day, "Symposium on economic situation in 2014 on" Li Yang said: "the financial crisis that began in 2007, from the United States quickly swept the world, year end/new year everybody wants to do some measure of the situation, I take stock of the crisis there is no past, only entered a new phase. ”
Analysis of Li Yang, from the perspective of developed economies, crisis in the most difficult time has passed, but essential element of crisis have not disappeared, and more important in dealing with the crisis in the course of a number of extraordinary measures, such extraordinary measures to prevent the crisis worsening, but also increased the burden of recovery, makes the recovery process confusing.
"Heavily biased toward consumer-oriented in the direction of economic development in developed economies, the economic structure is highly dependent on service industries, and manufacturing has been hollow. "Li Yang said that judge whether the crisis in the past, depends on the real economy in the field of economic development pattern of biased and distorted economic structure is to be addressed, apparently without resolution.
Li Yang said the crisis was initially a financial crisis, characterized by very high leverage. Deleveraging is a necessary path to save crisis now deleveraging is not complete, in a sense also increases.
"The global crisis has not in the past, the second performance in emerging economies and developing countries. "Li Yang said that initially, there was a phenomenon of developed economies on the one hand very bad economy, economic development in emerging economies and developing countries on the other hand very well, that there is a concept called the" two-speed derailment ", two speed categories and was derailed. But now the crisis entered its second phase, have stabilized in developed economies, emerging economies beginning to crisis.
When it comes to China's economy, said Li Yang, beginning in 2009, China's economy has entered a new phase, the rapid growth phase, showing a prominent issues in five areas:
Slow down problem. Rate, 7.5% is now quite high, but this is the 10% high growth rate came down from the two 3% impact is considerable. "Estimated that the impact would take years to overcome, then go into the normal period of rapid growth. "The speed of change, both at home and abroad has not been very well explained.
Real estate issues. Li Yang said: "aspects of the real estate in the real economy, I noticed that everyone on one side, but everyone knew it was a big problem. "Li Yang expects June national real estate registration system was started this year, apart from the problem of high prices, and excess housing will work out," now this is a very prominent in the financial sector are preparing "," everybody said that this year's real economic problems, starting with real estate problems. "
Overcapacity problems. Li Yang said that excess capacity is a "cancer". Economic growth rates do not increase, also depends on the investment, and after the investment, resulting in more overcapacity, which is interlocking of systems.
Financial problems. Li Yang said, is a wide currency, tight credit and low interest rates in developed countries, and China's finance is wide currency, high interest rates, loans, loans for expensive, these phenomena are, paradoxically, are grouped together, constitute the reality of today's financial industry of China. China's financial system has to be operated on is no policy adjustments, because of policy adjustments will not solve deeper problems.
Local government debt problem. Li Yang believed that General local government debt in China is not a problem, but it is a big problem in the local area, local area, you must be prepared.
"The crisis to reach out to such an extent that is rooted in the real economy has a problem and, therefore, essentia is the reform of the way out of the crisis. "Li Yang said, which national awareness about their issues in the most profound and reform strategy of most complete and largest commitment to reform, the most notable, which countries will occupy in the future ahead.
(Original title: Vice President of the Chinese Academy of social sciences Li Yang: the global financial crisis has entered its second phase)
章轲
中国社会科学院副院长李扬昨日表示，从2007年开始的全球金融危机没有过去，只是进入了一个新阶段，改革是走出危机的唯一途径。
在中国社会科学院经济学部当日召开的“2014年经济形势座谈会”上，李扬说：“从2007年开始的金融危机，从美国开始迅速席卷全球，在岁末年初大家都要对形势做一些估量，我总的估量是危机没有过去，只是进入了一个新阶段。”
李扬分析，从发达经济体情况看，危机最困难的时候过去了，但是造成危机的基本因素并没有消失，更重要的是在应对危机过程中采取了很多超常规的措施，这些超常规措施在阻止危机恶化的同时也加重了复苏的重负，使得复苏过程扑朔迷离。
“发达经济体经济发展方向严重偏向消费者导向，经济结构高度依赖服务业，而制造业已空心化。”李扬说，判断危机是否过去，就要看实体经济领域中经济发展方式偏颇以及经济结构扭曲的状况是不是得到解决，显然没有解决。
李扬说，危机最初是金融危机，表现为杠杆率非常高。去杠杆化是解救危机的一个必要路径，现在去杠杆并没有完成，在一定意义上还在提高。
“全球危机还没有过去，第二个表现在新兴经济体和发展中国家。”李扬说，危机初期曾出现一个现象，一方面发达经济体经济很不好，另一方面新兴经济体和发展中国家经济发展很好，以至于出现一个概念，叫做“双速脱轨”，两类国家两个速度，而且是脱轨的。但目前，危机进入第二阶段，发达经济体稳定了，新兴经济体开始危机了。
在谈到中国经济时，李扬说，从2009年开始，中国经济进入一个新阶段，即中高速增长阶段，呈现出五个方面的突出问题：
减速问题。尽管现在7.5%、7.6%速度已经相当高，但这是从10%高的增速落下来的，两三个百分点的冲击相当大。“估计这个冲击需要几年才能消弭，然后进入正常的中高速增长阶段。”而对于这一速度的变化，国内外一直没有非常好的解释。
房地产问题。李扬说：“实体经济层面的房地产，我注意到谁都不谈，但是谁都知道它是一个大问题。”李扬预计，今年6月全国房地产登记系统启动之后，除了高房价问题外，房屋过剩问题也将水落石出，“现在这个问题非常突出，金融部门都在做准备”，“大家都说今年实体经济要出问题，首先就是房地产出问题”。
产能过剩问题。李扬说，产能过剩已经是一个“癌症”。经济增长速度上不去，还得靠投资，而投资上来后，又导致更多的产能过剩，这是体制的纠结。
金融问题。李扬说，发达国家是宽货币、紧信用、低利率，而中国的金融是宽货币、高利率、贷款难、贷款贵，这几个现象很荒谬地组合在一起，构成了中国今天金融业的现实。中国金融体系必须动手术，不能靠政策调整，因为政策调整解决不了深层次的问题。
地方政府债务问题。李扬认为，中国总体来说地方政府债务不是问题，但是在局部地区、局部领域却是大问题，必须要有所准备。
“危机深入到如此程度，根源在于实体经济出了问题，因此，走出危机的治本之策是改革。”李扬说，哪一个国家对自己的问题认识得最深刻、改革策略最完备、改革决心最大、效果最显著，哪一个国家就会在未来占据先机。
(原标题：中国社科院副院长李扬：全球金融危机进入第二阶段)
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