Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/2/17 8:55:54 Bird flu hit poultry industry： farm half year loss of more than 60 billion
Shao Haipeng
[Currently, poultry companies face dilemma of liquidity shortage, some companies could mortgage mortgage, but to do it credit, there was a big farming groups interest a year more than 20 million]
H7N9 continuous fermentation of influenza, poultry industry losses are continuing.
New year has just begun, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places H7N9 continuous reporting more cases of human infection cases of influenza, national development planning Commission predicted that sporadic cases of human infection H7N9 avian influenza continue to occur.
It is gradually returning to the poultry industry is a heavy blow. Since last March, H7N9 after the flu outbreak, poultry sales and prices have dropped significantly, according to the China animal husbandry Association survey, the first half of 2013 farms more than 60 billion yuan of direct economic losses.
Industry said that the industry downturn, overcapacity and increased rearing costs are due while avian flu became the last of the fuse.
Self-help without delay
"Very, very hard. "The other end of that phone, Yulin, Guangxi, Vice Chairman and Deputy General Manager of Guangdong Wen Shi Liang Youqiang reluctantly said," only kept in production. ”
Since last March, H7N9 outbreaks w group losses of 30 million Yuan. Only last April, the w group loss limit at around 700 million.
H7N9 flu resurgence at the end of last year, implementation of the reduction plan, self help is urgent.
On January 10, the w Group held a seminar on emergency requiring affiliated companies include strictly enforcing production cuts introduced in chicken broiler chickens, slaughtering all means, warehousing, euthanize chicks, a significant reduction in landings, proactively cope with shrinking consumer market shocks.
In addition to the impact of the bird flu, said Liang Youqiang, "hard" also reflected lower profits, breed, trafficked egg, chicken, chicken and other upstream and downstream industry chain in the poultry industry, are all at a loss.
There are two reasons: on the one hand, industry overcapacity led to price falls. In recent years, our fathers introduction an increasing number of white meat chicken, excess capacity in 2013, already visible. Hit by the avian flu incident, some businesses still exist chances, fathers chicken (chicken used for breeding) introduction number instead. Meanwhile, corn and soybean meal prices, disinfection and epidemic prevention, increased labor costs, making farming cost, "eating away" was originally a modest profit.
"Now yellow chicken loss 6~7 yuan each a month, still had a loss of more than 300 million. Because companies and farmers, in order to protect the interests of farmers, can only lose money and recycle. In addition, feed and farming equipment supplier in the chain also began to recover debts. Bank loans are not easily. "Liang Youqiang said.
Insiders told the newspaper reflected, at present, the liquidity shortage difficulties faced by poultry enterprises, companies that can mortgage the mortgage, but to do it credit, there is a large farming interest group have more than 20 million a year. This is to continue, with more cash to buy feed.
"Most of the poultry company is in the red, some employers even the bookies to maintain. Once the company closes, farmers ' interests would also suffer. Currently, it must borrow money or cut production. "He said.
In this case, the State subsidies for the poultry industry alone is a drop in the bucket.
In response to H7N9 flu impact, the Ministry of agriculture has issued related subsidies, but the amount and limited in scope. Chou Baoqin, Deputy Secretary General of the China animal husbandry Association of poultry farming branch told the media that, when central subsidies was 600 million Yuan, for the amount of industry-wide loss of 60 billion yuan, have limited impact. Part in the culture, subsidies targeted at fathers chicken, subsidies fathers chickens will get 50 Yuan each, but a fathers chicken costs 600 Yuan.
Guangxi Yulin aquatic animal husbandry Association Pang Hongzhi believes that now the poultry industry in particular the desperate edge of broiler breeding. Now companies are carrying, too much will die miserably, even if carried in the past, it does not know when the market can recover.
Need to promote animal husbandry transformation and upgrading
While adjusting the poultry industry overcapacity is very necessary, but avian flu forced markets to self-correct this way is somewhat extreme.
Gong Guifen poultry industry branch of China animal husbandry Association Secretary-General believes that fears of consumers requires attention, among them, improper call, and propaganda is a direct factor.
On January 29, veterinary Bureau, Ministry of agriculture Zhang Zhongqiu, in an interview, said that up to now, not sure what kind of animal was transmitted to humans, and there was insufficient evidence to prove that "virus is a direct transmission to humans through poultry", "at least so far, H7N9 poultry farms have not yet checked out the flu virus. ”
Not only that, but since the beginning of last April, the World Health Organization (WHO), World Organisation for animal health (OIE), FAO and the United Nations (FAO), three international organizations, recommends using "H7N9 flu" or "H7N9 virus" name.
But this proposal was not accepted. Oriental Shepherd information technology limited liability company General Manager jung believes that this is because the industry lacks a common voice platform.
Under the multi-party call, January 8, China animal husbandry Association Branch of white feather broiler poultry industry Federation was founded, leading poultry producers in more than more than 50 participants. Jung believed that Union, essentially in order to safeguard the interests of industry together to combat risks.
This fragile industry, suffered outbreaks again affected, damage is inevitable. As to when they can return to normal, said Pang Hongzhi told the newspaper, originally expected in May or June of this year the market will return to normal, but look at the current situation, as long as the exclusion effect of undue publicity until July or August may work correctly. But the industry estimated at 2-3 time before returning H7N9 outbreak levels.
Is of concern, because flu-hit poultry industry events happening several times, as well as a series of "quick chicken", "chemical residue chicken" event, illustrates the fragility of the poultry industry.
Zhang Zhongqiu suggested that in the long term, needs to advance the transformation and upgrading of animal husbandry, develop standardized mass breeding of livestock and poultry to enhance biosecurity culture links, reducing disease risk, this strategy is fundamental to the promotion of the sustainable and healthy development of animal husbandry. Source: business news
邵海鹏
[ 目前，禽类企业面临流动资金短缺的困境，一些企业能抵押的都抵押了，只能做信用贷款了，有一家大的养殖集团光利息一年就得2000多万 ]
H7N9流感持续发酵，家禽业损失仍在持续。
新年刚开始，浙江、广东等地就连续报告多例人感染H7N9流感病例，国家卫计委预测，可能继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感的散发病例。
这对正在逐步恢复的家禽业又是一重打击。自从去年3月H7N9流感疫情发生后，家禽业销量和价格均大幅下降，据中国畜牧协会调查，2013年上半年，养殖场直接经济损失超过600亿元。
业内多方均表示，行业的低迷，本就有产能过剩、养殖成本增加的原因，禽流感则成了最后的导火索。
进行自救刻不容缓
“很难很难。”电话那头，广西玉林市广东温氏副董事长兼副总经理梁有强无奈地说，“只有不停地减产。”
自从去年3月H7N9暴发，温氏集团日亏3000万元。仅去年4月，温氏集团亏损额度在7亿左右。
随着去年年底H7N9流感卷土重来，执行减产计划，进行自救已经刻不容缓。
1月10日，温氏集团召开应急研讨会，要求下属养鸡公司采取包括严格执行减产计划、屠宰肉鸡入库、人道毁灭鸡苗在内的一切手段，大幅度降低上市量，主动应对消费市场萎缩冲击。
除了禽流感的冲击，梁有强说，“很难”还表现为利润的降低，保种户、贩蛋、贩鸡、养鸡等从事家禽行业的产业链上下游，无不亏本。
原因有二：一方面，行业产能过剩导致价格下跌。近几年我国祖代白羽肉雏鸡引种数量不断增加，2013年产能过剩已经显现。受禽流感事件冲击，仍有部分企业存在侥幸心理，祖代鸡(用于繁种的鸡)引种数量不降反升。另一方面，玉米、豆粕涨价，消毒、防疫、人力成本的增加，使得养殖成本“蚀掉”原本微薄的利润。
“现在每只黄鸡亏损6~7元，一个月下来就会亏损3亿多。因为是公司加农户的形式，为了保护农户的利益，就只能亏本回收。此外，产业链上的饲料、养殖设备供应商也开始追偿债务。银行更是不会轻易贷款。”梁有强说。
业内人士对《第一财经日报》反映，目前，禽类企业面临流动资金短缺的困境，一些企业能抵押的都抵押了，只能做信用贷款了，有一家大的养殖集团光利息一年就得2000多万。这主要是为了持续生产，用更多现金来购买饲料。
“大多数禽业公司都是在亏损经营，有些老板甚至借高利贷来维持。因为一旦公司倒闭，农民的利益也会受损。目前，要么借钱，要么减产。”他说。
在这种情况下，国家对家禽业的补贴仅仅是杯水车薪。
为了应对H7N9流感的冲击，农业部曾经出台相关补贴政策，但金额及范围有限。中国畜牧业协会禽业分会副秘书长仇宝琴对媒体表示，当时中央财政补贴是6亿元，对于全行业亏损600亿元的数额来说，作用有限。即使在养殖环节，补贴也主要面向祖代鸡，每只祖代鸡可获得50元补贴，但是一只祖代鸡的成本要600元。
广西玉林水产畜牧业协会会长庞宏志认为，现在家禽业特别是黄羽肉鸡养殖业处于绝境的边缘。现在企业都是在扛着，扛不住就会死得很惨，就算扛过去也不知道什么时候市场能真正恢复。
需推进畜牧业转型升级
尽管调整家禽业产能过剩非常必要，但以禽流感这种方式来倒逼市场的自我调整未免有些极端。
中国畜牧业协会禽业分会秘书长宫桂芬认为，消费者的恐慌心理需要重视，其中，不当的称呼以及宣传是直接因素。
1月29日，农业部兽医局局长张仲秋在接受媒体采访时表示，到现在为止，还不能肯定是哪种动物传播给人的，也没有足够证据证明“病毒是通过家禽直接传播给人”，“至少从目前来看，养禽场还没有检出H7N9流感病毒。”
不仅如此，自去年4月开始，世界卫生组织(WHO)、世界动物卫生组织(OIE)和联合国粮农组织(FAO)等三家国际组织，建议使用“H7N9流感”或“H7N9病毒”的名称。
但这一建议未被采纳。北京东方牧人信息科技有限责任公司总经理胡文辉认为，这是因为行业缺乏共同的发声平台。
在多方的呼吁下，1月8日，中国畜牧业协会禽业分会白羽肉鸡联盟成立，全国50多家龙头家禽养殖生产企业参会。胡文辉认为，联盟本质上就是为了保障行业的利益，共同抵御风险。
本就脆弱的行业，再经受疫情的波及，受损在所难免。至于何时能够恢复常态，庞宏志对《第一财经日报》说，原本预期今年五六月份市场会恢复正常，但看目前态势，只要排除不当宣传的影响，七八月份之前可能会正常。但是整个行业估计需要等2~3年时间才能够恢复到H7N9暴发前的水平。
值得关注的是，因为流感重创禽业的事件发生多次，以及近年来一系列“速成鸡”、“药残鸡”等事件，足以说明家禽业的脆弱。
张仲秋建议，从长远来看，需要推进畜牧业转型升级，大力发展畜禽标准化规模养殖，提升养殖环节生物安全水平，降低疫病发生风险，这是促进畜牧业持续健康发展的根本策略。来源：第一财经日报
赞