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The author:(作者)归海一刀
published in(发表于) 2014/3/20 6:31:09
XI will visit Europe， Ukraine issues occupy a very important position

China March 20-President XI's European tour at a time when Ukraine problem of high tension, while the European Union is to respond to Ukraine of the crisis for the moment the most urgent diplomatic task. Therefore, discussion of the relevant issues will inevitably be XI Jinping, which occupy a high position on the list of issues.

After the kelimiyagong vote, developments there were three major risks: first, Ukraine slide towards civil war. Putin's hand has been placed into the Eastern Ukraine on a belt, some local requirements to emulate off Crimea Ukrainian into Russian public meetings and demonstrations. Second, the outbreak of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will soon become a reality in Crimea. Third, Russia and the United States in the cold war. Us and Europe resorted to new sanctions with Russia and threatened has been preparing for the next wave of sanctions.

No matter what happens, will evolve into a global crisis, bring unforeseen severe shocks to the international situation, China in Ukraine as well as surrounding areas of interest have never to underestimate the negative impact. Must seek Ukraine political way out of the crisis, which is already in the urgent task of the international community to shoulder.

Greater crisis can still be avoided, for the Ukraine crisis bail directly between parties in the United States and Russia, of course, negotiations between them have already begun, explicit a strong hidden weaknesses and can sustain relations with each other, but not really all-out confrontation and, therefore, would have to accept the basic conditions for mediation mediation. Is currently lacking one or more be able to provide the United States and Russia steps under strength. In this connection, the role of the European Union and China, the most notable.

EU expansion a chimney, yet with a high threshold for Ukraine accession requirements, forcing Yanukovych got cold feet towards was the direct trigger of the crisis. Now, forced the European Union and United States in lockstep to "punish" Russia, but their heart is not reluctant to direct conflict with Russia, also reluctant to burden to provide enormous support to Ukraine on the back alone.

Major force in the world today, not at Russian-American confrontation up front, while maintaining good relations with Russia, America and Europe, the Ukrainian Quartet, has important interests in the Ukraine and always remain impartial and objective stance, only China. On the empowerment of China's participation in the Ukraine unique political basis of the process of a political settlement. Please note that is involved in, is not involved.

If Russia and the United States in the cold war are all, extremely complicated international strategic security situation, many hot spots will sharply increase the uncertainty. Is possible in Central Asia, China, foreign high areas, and areas such as trade, arms sales and energy were the benefits, but the overall diplomatic strategy in danger of tearing, global interests layout will have to make major changes.

There is talk of Russian-American confrontation the United States attracts the energy back into Europe, this reduction in East China Sea strategic pressure. Such analysis is justified, but it ignores the China will be unavoidable between Russia and the United States opted for tough, also ignored the clash to avoid direct involvement in the interests of Russia and the United States, China was forced to pay the costs.

China is not a weak middle belt States should not allow the world to go back to the cold war years. Moderate political resolve Ukraine crisis processes, appropriate mediation to play a constructive role in China important attempt to assume big responsibilities around the world, is also a separate fulfillment to the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia and essence of the Sino-US relationship commitment new powers initiatives is China itself reforms crucial to create a good external environment for the initiative.

While Russian-American sword, crossbow, a political solution to Ukraine the basic clues surfaced.

Kissinger's deep understanding of black causes and effects of the problem, the strategist in the Washington Post on March 6, issued by the Ukraine stated in the article, how to end the crisis, Ukraine "will never become one with another combat outpost". He advocated seeking "balance unsatisfactory" and put forward four-point proposal: (1) black-free choice of foreign alliances. (2) the Ukraine does not join NATO. (3) the black liberal establishment and consistent expression of the will of the people the Government, followed by domestic implementation of reconciliation, neutral approach at the international level. (4) Russia to recognize Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea, and allow you to enjoy more autonomy in Crimea and eliminate the Russian Sevastopol, all the ambiguous status of the Black Sea fleet. Kissinger's comments, apart from the 4th, and other three-point to an implementation of space.

March 15, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Council on behalf of the Chinese Government Liu JIEYI United States drafted in Ukraine after the cast an abstention on the draft resolution on, "within the framework of law and order" political resolve Ukraine crisis raised a three-point proposal is the establishment of an international coordination mechanism as soon as possible, and secondly, the parties to refrain from taking action to further aggravate the situation, the third is the international financial institutions to assist Ukraine to maintain economic and financial stability. This is China's new Government to deal with international hot spots "awareness programme" reflected that China is thinking whether it was involved in a political settlement.

17th, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommended the establishment of acceptable to all political forces in Ukraine "supports Ukraine liaison group", targets are determined by the United Nations Security Council resolution Ukraine system, sovereignty and territorial integrity of States and political and military neutrality. This information has not attracted enough attention of international media and some researchers, their eyes focused on the excitement of a larger point.

Perhaps because of internal wrangling, debate and communication with Russia, the EU as a whole in political resolve Ukraine crisis specific ideas are still absent, it is unreasonable. United Kingdom particularly work so hard to advocate imposing severe penalties to Russia, Germany, and France contrasted reservations, it seems this half-hearted island on the European integration process to the overall and long-term interests of the EU are not too hard. Ukraine crisis is also a crisis of the EU. The EU is to be avoided as a choice between Ukraine and Russia, to avoid swallowing bitter fruit of all-round mutual hatred between China and Russia, have to overcome bureaucratic and selfish personal gains, referred to an ambivalent line up as soon as possible, come up with their own strong programmes.

Should trust the wisdom of the great powers, the political resolve Ukraine crisis remained cautiously optimistic.

China needs materialized the existing three suggestions, step up diplomatic efforts, ready for the XI during his visit to Europe, a series of important meetings, making good use of this time directly from the top parties come forward to broad the opportunity, promote Ukraine's advocate on the issue. XI Jinping met in Europe Germany, and France both EU Heads of State leadership and the President of the European Commission, and at the nuclear security summit with United States President Barack Obama and other world leaders met, may also meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although the Russian participation has not been clear whether Putin without Russia's nuclear Summit will be less meaningful.

Chinese programmes need to take into account Ukraine people's aspirations, opposed to further weaken Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, it will affect the entire international order. By Ukraine the fate of peoples with territory dismembered assume great power competition between the major consequences will be the shame of 21st century international politics, dirty pages. In Chinese if this crisis refused to Ukraine the people show sympathy, it is also a betrayal of the memory of their national humiliation, errors of anti-splittism issue notes.

(Edit: SN091)
08:06 March 20, 2014 China NET
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习近平将访问欧洲 乌克兰问题占重要位置|乌克兰|习近平|欧洲_新闻资讯

　　中国网3月20日讯 中国国家主席习近平的欧洲之行时值乌克兰问题高度紧张，而欧盟正以应对乌克兰危机为当下最紧迫的外交任务。因此，对有关问题的讨论不可避免地将在习近平此访议题单上占据很高位置。

　　克里米亚公投之后，局势发展存在三大危险：一是乌克兰滑向内战。普京之手已放到东乌克兰的裤腰带上，一些地方发生了要求仿效克里米亚脱乌入俄的集会示威。二是俄乌爆发军事冲突，这在克里米亚即将成为现实。三是俄美陷入冷战。美欧祭出新的对俄制裁措施，并扬言已准备好下一波制裁。

　　无论哪种情况发生，都将演化成一场世界性的危机，给国际形势带来难以预料的严重冲击，对中国在乌乃至周边地带的利益造成不可低估的负面影响。必须寻求乌克兰危机的政治解决之道，这是已然压在国际社会肩头的紧迫任务。

　　更大的危机仍可避免，能为乌克兰危机解扣的当然是直接当事方美俄两国，他们之间的谈判早已开始，各显强势也各藏软肋，可以承受彼此关系冷淡，但并不愿真的全面对抗，因此也就具备接受斡旋调解的基本条件。目前缺少的是一支或几支能为美俄提供台阶下的力量。在这方面，欧盟和中国的作用最引人注目。

　　欧盟不加节制地扩张，却又以高门槛处理乌克兰入盟要求，迫使亚努科维奇临阵转向，是这场危机的直接导火索。现在，欧盟迫不得已与美国步调一致地“惩罚”俄罗斯，但其内心不情愿同俄直接冲突，也不情愿独自背上向乌提供巨额援助的包袱。

　　在当今世界主要力量中，并不处在俄美对峙锋线之上，同时与俄、美、欧、乌四方保持良好关系，在乌拥有重要利益且始终保持公正、客观立场的，只有中国。这就赋予中国参与乌克兰问题政治解决进程的独特政治基础。请注意，是参与，不是介入。

　　如果俄美陷入全面冷战，国际战略安全形势将极度复杂化，很多热点的不确定性将骤然增加。中国虽有可能在中亚、外高地区和经贸、军售、能源等领域获一时之利，但整体对外战略面临被撕裂的危险，全球利益布局将不得不进行重大调整。

　　有言论称俄美对抗将把美国的主要精力重新吸引回欧洲，由此减轻中国在东面海上承受的战略压力。这样的分析不无道理，但却忽略了中国将难以回避在俄美之间作选择的艰难，也忽略了中国为避免直接卷入俄美利益对撞而不得不支付的成本代价。

　　中国已非一个贫弱的中间地带国家，不应允许世界重回冷战年代。适度参与政治解决乌克兰危机的进程，适当发挥劝和促谈的建设性作用，既是中国在全球范围内承担大国责任的重要尝试，也是中国分头践履对中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系和中美新型大国关系承诺的实质举措，更是中国为自身改革攻坚营造良好外部环境的主动作为。

　　就在俄美剑拨弩张的同时，政治解决乌克兰问题的基本线索也在浮出水面。

　　基辛格深刻了解乌问题的来龙去脉，这位战略家在3月6日在《华盛顿邮报》上发表的《乌克兰危机如何结束》一文中明言，乌克兰“绝对不能成为一方与另一方对抗的前哨”。他主张寻求达成“平衡的不满意”并提出四点建议：(1)乌自由选择对外联盟方向。(2)乌不加入北约。(3)乌自由组建与民众表达意愿相一致的政府，随后在国内实施和解，在国际上采取中立。(4)俄承认乌对克里米亚主权，乌允许克里米亚享有更多自治权并消除俄驻塞瓦斯托波尔黑海舰队地位的所有不明确因素。在基辛格提出的意见中，除第四点外，其它三点存在实现的空间。

　　3月15日，中国常驻联合国代表刘结一代表中国政府在安理会就美国起草的乌克兰问题决议草案投下弃权票后，就“在法律和秩序框架内”政治解决乌克兰危机提出三点建议，一是尽快设立国际协调机制，二是各方不采取进一步恶化局势的行动，三是国际金融机构协助乌维护经济金融稳定。这是中国新一届政府应对国际热点“方案意识”的体现，说明中国已在做是否参与政治解决的思考。

　　17日，俄外交部建议成立乌所有政治力量都能接受的“支持乌克兰联络小组”，目标是通过联合国安理会决议确定乌克兰国家体制、主权和领土完整和军事政治中立地位。这一信息并未引起国际媒体和一些研究人员的足够重视，他们的视线集中到更大的兴奋点上去了。

　　也许是因为还在进行内部扯皮、辩论和与俄沟通，欧盟作为一个整体对政治解决乌克兰危机的具体设想仍然缺位，这是不可理喻的。英国尤为卖劲地鼓吹对俄实施严厉惩罚，与德国、法国的保留态度形成对比，看来这个对欧洲一体化进程三心二意的岛屿确实对欧盟的整体长远利益不太上心。乌克兰危机同时也是欧盟的危机。欧盟要想避免在俄乌之间作选择、避免吞下俄美全面交恶的苦果，必须克服官僚主义和私心私利，尽快站到调解矛盾的第一线上去，拿出自己的有力方案。

　　应当相信大国的智慧，对政治解决乌克兰危机的前景保持谨慎的乐观。

　　中国有必要在现有基础上实化三点建议、加大外交力度，为习近平出访欧洲期间的一系列重要会晤做好准备，用好这次由最高层直接出面广泛做各方工作的契机，推进中国在乌克兰问题上的主张。习近平在欧洲将会晤德国、法国这两个欧盟领导国家的首脑及欧盟委员会主席，并在核安全峰会上与美国总统奥巴马等世界主要领导人会晤，也可能见到俄总统普京。尽管俄方尚未明确普京是否与会，但缺少了俄罗斯的核峰会将意义大减。

　　中国的方案需要兼顾乌克兰人民的诉求，反对进一步削弱乌克兰主权和领土完整的行为，这事关整个国际秩序。由乌克兰人民以国土被肢解的命运承担大国相争的主要恶果，将是21世纪国际政治的耻辱、肮脏一页。中国如果在这场危机中拒绝向乌克兰人民显示同情，那也是对自己民族屈辱记忆的背叛、对反分裂问题的错误注解。

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