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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/3/24 3:44:12 CASS experts： can set up international investigators checked the aircraft lost
Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 lost more than 10 days, continued increase in the number of countries participating in the joint search-and-rescue. For States, the countries of the Commonwealth's performance in relief, Shanghai Academy of social sciences, China Jin Yongming, Director of the Centre for strategic studies of the sea when in an interview with 21st century business Herald reporter believes that Southeast Asian countries, including China, in terms of analysis, intelligence analysis, search and rescue has room for improvement.
He thinks should be Malaysia Airlines passenger plane lost the event as an opportunity to push China and Southeast Asian countries as the primary maritime search and rescue mechanism construction. For 20th in Australia found that two of the objects associated with the lost aircraft, Jin Yongming recommends that States share resources, to communicate information collaboration, the investigation has established an international organization that "relevant countries, say, Malaysia dominated."
No authoritative coordination mechanism to fight information
Of the 21st century: in terms of disaster relief in South China Sea area, such as search and rescue and investigation of the disclosure of information, whether there are specific mechanisms and regulations?
Jin Yongming: South China Sea search and rescue don't have the mechanisms or institutions. Information disclosure from the view of international law, it wished to have a regional search and rescue system information center, so far does not seem to be very satisfactory. International law States for search and rescue obligations on maritime disaster, disaster, ask a search-and-rescue Center building, but so far it seems is not so ideal, is in the fight against piracy is not fully utilized.
Of the 21st century: what specific correlation method in international law?
Jin Yongming: from a humanitarian point of view, the coastal States under the United Nations Convention on search and rescue, a duty to rescue. The problem is that most of search-and-rescue duty at sea. Air is the Treaty of Chicago, including treaty norms in other aviation. The problem it's difficult here, it crosses many areas.
Of the 21st century: aircraft lost after the incident, we can see from various countries a variety of information, and even fight with each other for information, what do you think about this?
Jin Yongming: because there was no planning and co-ordination mechanisms. Before judging was Malaysia, and Viet Nam, but their power, strength, accuracy, intelligence-gathering ability, analytical capacity is put in place? Are all national forces are in this aspect? It is not clear. There is no an authoritative mechanism for integrated and coordinated, can only be said.
Role of ASEAN security cooperation mechanism is not
Of the 21st century: Please evaluate performance of States, the countries of the Commonwealth in the rescue? In accordance with the relevant Convention on salvage, rescue Act in conformity with the Convention in various countries, with or without crossing the line?
Jin Yongming: from a humanitarian point of view, all about the clues have been discovered as early as possible as quickly as possible, national action is understandable. Between the allies, he shared information systems may be more complete, since it already had such a system. However, allies and other non-coordination between the allies may not be as smooth. Southeast Asian countries, including China, are actually in the analysis of search and rescue, intelligence analysis, not have a lot of experience dealing with. United States, and Japan's experience should be regarded as the best, so how to United States, and Japan play a more important role, this could be an important aspect.
Military and civilian rescue forces are supposed to be their respective advantages into full play, in this sense, if you want to enter other countries, in particular territorial waters, generally to get the consent of the territorial State, so this search-and-rescue to see if it is determined in the context of territorial scope.
Of the 21st century: a Malaysia Airlines aircraft disappearances and confusing, so far without result, ASEAN regional security coordination for the matter has exposed what the problem?
Jin Yongming: ASEAN now includes 10+1, 10+3, 10+6, East Asian Security Summit, La Conference, and so on, you want that mechanism is not there, even focus on economic, security, cultural and other cooperation existed, but play a role is not very large, you should take this question as an opportunity to rethink.
Of the 21st century: how evaluation on China's performance in the incident?
Jin Yongming: through this thing, we should think about how to improve the pace of domestic coordination, emergency response mechanisms. China wants to become a regional superpower, especially to take advantage of China's economic transition to political and security benefits.
China and some ASEAN countries in terms of security to set up a forum, through established mechanisms, develop agreements. After this unexpected emergency events may also occur, so try to pick up the pace, into 21st century Silk Road on the sea areas is one way.
Of the 21st century: 20th Australia Prime Minister said and found two possible objects associated with the lost aircraft. Please predict the next direction of investigations and search-and-rescue? Cooperation among the countries of what?
Jin Yongming: full search, sharing of resources, information communication collaboration. Investigations can the establishment of an international organization, participation of relevant countries, say, Malaysia dominated, or a third party such as the United States to lead.
Sino-American Summit meeting or talk about passenger aircraft lost
Of the 21st century: one theory is that United States policy is to weaken China in the South China Sea, it is possible to exert influence in the South China Sea has the intention to take this event.
Jin Yongming: should not consider from this perspective, because the United States to step in on Southeast Asian coasts, its way to come out of it, such as equipment, military exercises with other countries, but if it does not embody a large role in search-and-rescue and so, other countries might also somewhat looked down on it, because it is fully equipped with the strength and condition.
So don't put this question, anything to curb China's direction, in fact, United States "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" should say it's not exactly a goal of containing China. United States Dan Guo's forces had in the Asia Pacific region on their own can't be kept, so he borrowed from other allies and non-allies, other countries doing something. There is a way to steer the country toward the existing international order to be close to.
Of the 21st century: some people say United States military forces may use this opportunity to return to the South China Sea area, the Asia-Pacific region for the United States what is the strategic importance of? Where are the opportunities and barriers may?
Jin Yongming: United States on Asia-Pacific actually had never left, but its focus from a little, as Afghanistan and the Iraq wars, less attention on Asia and the Pacific, and both gained rapid development in China during the war, so it's not back, are likely to be excluded from the Asia-Pacific region.
United States why you want to return, it is important that current economic focus and dynamism in the Asia-Pacific and United States to restore the economy, strengthening of export, will have to go back to the Asia-Pacific.
So back to the Asia-Pacific is what does it means? It means the first is TPP (trans-Pacific strategic economic partnership agreement), shuffling into the new rules, tried to squeezed out of China.
Asia Pacific United States strategic importance, both from a political and military alliance to the United States are important, United States cannot, and will not give up the Asia-Pacific. Even if its capacity is insufficient, it has some allies contributed, and to jointly maintain the original its Alliance System.
Resistance lies in finance, reductions in military spending so that it does not have a great deal of power to other States for assistance to help. So mentioned it called allies and non-allies share the burden, the United States, I want you to "pay a little money" this way. But it is also an integrated and coordinated, leading role was always there.
Opportunity is ocean issues, such as outbreak of oceans issues makes him all the more reason to intervene the South China Sea issue, but in fact United States help navigation channels safe and free, is a false proposition, because between China and ASEAN countries, especially in South-East Asia trade growth is accelerating, the channel was open and safe for transport.
Of the 21st century: March 24-25th, Sino XI and Mr Obama will be in Netherlands the Hague, held during the third session of the nuclear security summit to be held this year, met for the first time, look forward to on this?
Jin Yongming: leaders of the two countries will talk about passenger aircraft lost, and how to further strengthen Sino-US bilateral naval cooperation.
China, as a big country should make greater contribution to the international community, you need to help out, and this way can cohesion so that other country you formed centripetal force, otherwise it is centrifugal force.
China is now in a delicate position, during the course of this development there is a determination to be free, China's peaceful development will give people a foreseeable goal, tendencies and trends. Therefore, China's development, and without Alliance with other countries, not to interfere in internal affairs of other States, in the case of absolute respect for difficult now, so a relatively modest change, from a humanitarian point of view, from the perspective of big responsibilities to consider. (Edit Jia Honghui)
(Original title: establishment of an international survey surveys aircraft lost)
马航MH370班机失联10多天，参与联合搜救的国家数正不断增多。对于各国、各国家联合体在救助当中的表现，上海社科院中国海洋战略研究中心主任金永明在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时认为，东南亚国家包括中国在内，在搜救分析、情报分析、处理方面有提高的空间。
他认为应以马航客机失联事件为契机，推动中国与东南亚国家为主的一些海上搜救机制建设步伐。对于20日刚刚在澳大利亚发现的两个可能与失联客机相关的物体，金永明建议各国资源共享，进行情报信息沟通交流协作，调查方面可以成立一个国际调查组织，“相关国家参加，比如说马来西亚主导”。
无权威协调机制致信息打架
《21世纪》：南海地区在空难救济方面，比如搜救和调查的信息披露，是否有专门机制和规定？
金永明：南海区域搜救没有这样的机制或组织机构。信息披露方面从国际法来看，它希望有一个区域的搜救系统情报中心，目前来看似乎不是很理想。国际法提出各国对海上灾难、灾害具有搜救的义务，提出搜救系统中心的构建等，但目前为止好像也不是那么理想，就是在此前打击海盗上也没有充分利用。
《21世纪》：国际法上具体有哪些相关法条？
金永明：从人道主义角度看，《联合国海洋法公约》规定沿海国家有搜救、救助义务。但问题是搜救义务多数都是在海上。空中的话就是《芝加哥条约》，包括其他航空方面的条约来规范。这个问题难就难在这里，它交叉了很多领域。
《21世纪》：飞机失联事件发生后，我们看到来自于各个国家各种不同信息，乃至于互相打架的信息，对此你怎么看？
金永明：还是因为没有统筹和协调机制。之前来看是马来西亚、越南为主，但是他们的力量、实力、精确度、情报搜集能力、分析能力是不是到位？是不是把全部的国家力量都用到这个方面？并不清楚。没有一个权威的统筹协调机制，只能各说各的。
东盟安全合作机制作用不大
《21世纪》：请评价各国、各国家联合体在救助当中的表现？根据相关的救助公约，各个国家的救助行为是否符合公约，有无越线？
金永明：从人道主义角度来看，都是为了尽快尽早地搜索到线索，各国行动无可厚非。具体到同盟国之间，可能他的信息共享系统比较完善，因为它本来就有这样的系统。不过同盟国与其他非同盟国之间的协调可能不是那么通畅。东南亚国家包括中国在内，实际上在搜救分析、情报分析、处理方面并不是有很多经验。美国、日本的经验应该说是最好，所以怎么样让美国、日本发挥更大的作用，这可能是一个重要方面。
军用、民用搜救力量应该都是发挥各自的优势，从这个意义上来说，如果要进入其他国家，特别是领海的话，一般要得到领海国家的同意，所以这种搜救要看它的范围是不是确定在领海以外的范围。
《21世纪》：马航飞机失踪事件扑朔迷离，迄今仍无处理结果，东盟地区安全协调因这件事情暴露了哪些问题？
金永明：现在东盟层面有10+1、10+3、10+6，东亚安全峰会，香格里拉会议等等，你要说机制也不是没有，甚至侧重于经济、安全、人文等各方面的合作都是存在的，但是发挥的作用不是很大，所以应该以这个问题为契机重新思考。
《21世纪》：对中国在此次事件中的表现怎么评价？
金永明：通过这件事情，我们应该思考如何提升国内统筹协调、应急反应机制的步伐。中国要成为一个区域性大国，特别是要把中国的经济优势向政治、安全优势去过渡。
中国如何与东盟一些国家在安全方面成立一个论坛，通过论坛成立机制，拟定协定。以后这种突发性的应急性事件可能还会出现，所以要加快步伐，纳入21世纪海上丝绸之路领域的范畴也是一个办法。
《21世纪》：20日澳大利亚总理称，发现两个可能与失联客机相关的物体。请预测一下下一步调查和搜救方向？各国之间的配合应该是怎样的？
金永明：全力搜索，资源共享，情报信息沟通交流协作。调查方面可以成立一个国际调查组织了，相关国家参加，比如说马来西亚主导，或者第三方如美国来主导。
中美元首会晤或谈到客机失联
《21世纪》：有一种说法是美国在南海问题上的策略是希望削弱中国，所以可能会有意图借这个事件在南海多施加影响力。
金永明：不应该从这个角度考虑，因为美国要介入东南亚沿海问题，它的途径多得很，比如说跟其他国家合作进行装备、军事演习等，但如果它在搜救方面不体现很大作用和影响的话，其他国家可能还有点看不起它，因为其实它实力和条件都是完全具备的。
所以不要把这个问题、任何事情都往遏制中国的方向考虑，实际上美国“亚太再平衡战略”应该说不完全是遏制中国的一个目标。美国在亚太地区靠自己单国的力量已经守不住了，所以他要借用同盟国、非同盟国其他关系的力量，让其他国家出点力。还有一个目的就是引导中国往国际现有的秩序方面去靠近。
《21世纪》：有人说美国可能会借助这次机会将军事势力重返南海地区，亚太地区对于美国的战略意义是什么？它的机会和阻力又可能在哪里？
金永明：美国对亚太实际上一点也没有离开过，只是它的重点有点脱离，因为阿富汗、伊拉克两场战争，它不太顾得上亚太，而且两场战争中中国获得了飞速发展，所以说它再不回来，很有可能把被排斥到亚太区域之外。
美国为什么要返回，很重要的是现在经济重心和活力在亚太，美国要恢复经济，加强出口，势必要回到亚太。
那么回到亚太是什么手段呢？它的手段第一个就是TPP(跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定)，重新洗牌进入新的规则，试图把中国排挤在外。
亚太地区对美国的战略意义，无论从政治、军事、同盟关系上对美国都举足轻重，美国不可能也不会放弃亚太。即使它能力不足的话，它有一些盟国出钱出力，来共同维持原来它的同盟体系。
阻力在于财政、军费的削减，使得它没有很多力量给其他国家进行援助帮助。所以刚才讲到它要叫同盟国、非同盟国共同承担，这次美国来的时候你稍微要“付点钱”这样的方式进行。但是它还是统筹协调，主导作用还是一直存在。
机遇就是海洋问题，比如说海洋问题的爆发使得他有更多的理由介入南海问题，但是实际上美国助阵的航海通道安全自由，是一个伪命题，因为中国以及东盟国家之间，特别是在东南亚区域贸易增长是加快的，通道运输是畅通的、安全的。
《21世纪》：3月24日至25日，中美两国元首习近平和奥巴马将在荷兰海牙举行的第三届核安全峰会期间举行今年的首次会晤，对此有何期待？
金永明：两国领导人肯定会谈到客机失联事件，如何进一步加强中、美两国的海空合作。
中国作为大国应该为国际社会作出更大的贡献，你要出力出策，这样才能够有凝聚力，使得其他国家向着你形成向心力，否则是离心力。
所以中国现在处于微妙的境地，在这个发展过程中要有一种决断力，中国的和平发展要给人家一个可以预见的目标、倾向、趋势。所以中国的发展，不与其他国家结盟、不干涉其他国家内政，在现在的情况下绝对遵守有一定难度，所以要相对温和的转变，从人道主义的角度，从大国责任的角度去考虑。(编辑 贾红辉)
(原标题：可成立国际调查组织调查飞机失联事件)
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