Go homepage(回首页)
Upload pictures (上传图片)
Write articles (发文字帖)

The author:(作者)归海一刀
published in(发表于) 2014/3/25 23:05:15
Expert： lost destinations may be an uninhabited island or desert area

Last night, Malaysia announced that the Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 on India crashed in southern ocean waters. Why the plane headed south India Ocean direction? How big is likely to be hijacked? According to the fuel situation, the plane flew to South India Ocean, does that mean that have chosen to commit suicide? For questions, reporters conducting interviews, consolidation.

1. why the plane headed south India Ocean direction?

Destination or in desert area

Naval military academic Institute, Zhang said the aircraft likely to Australia flight from desert in the West, which is along the Perth, or fly to the India Ocean French island.

Zhang said that now that oil was not enough, or a problem with the aircraft navigation system, or did not find those places, did not fly to Australia desert region in Western China, strayed from the Islands, South to India over the ocean, sea.

Aviation knowledge magazine said Wang Yanan, which is United Kingdom air accidents Investigation Bureau after close analysis of basic is based on the 6-way handshake information between aircraft and satellites, the handshake message 6 aircraft of arc draw pictures, finally ruled out the North route is possible. But how to analyse, there is no more to say.

2. the plane's flight path on what catch?

Not trying to find a good landing site

Wang Yanan, path analysis, before the turn bends to the South, whether intentionally or unintentionally, in fact, reduces the likelihood of ground radars to detect. In other words, it does avoid radar signs. After that, aircraft head bends to the South, bends to the South India Ocean, also tell us that this aircraft does not seem to intend to fly to a better landing spot. Got to think about, flew closer to the North.

3. how big is likely to be hijacked?

Basic can confirm that aircraft hijacking

Wang Yanan said, in fact, can be recognized as essentially hijacking, but could not confirm the hijacking of aircraft and personnel is a crew or a third party.

Zhang said that present specific causes of the plane crash is still unknown, but from the existing situation, the plane cut in response to the transponder and shut down communication systems, there is no clue to the discovery of explosive, man-made causes cannot be ruled out. People could be there right now, drivers or other people hijack planes fled to South India Ocean region.

4. the captain and vice captain increased the possibility of hijacking?

Suspected crew maximum

Wang Yanan said, always thought of captains, Vice captains involved in the hijacking of the possibilities are great, because an action plane, made a series of moves, including the closure of these devices, most likely proficient in flying people, so he thought the crew suspected was the largest.

Zhang said that at this point, this likelihood. However, Captain or Copilot someone onboard stress cannot be ruled out, changed the probability of hijacking is great. If not a hijacking just machine failure, after the captain found out, in Malaysia and Viet Nam border begins where the back turn, return to Malaysia over his long overdue reports, or request try landing Malaysia airports. But he didn't, he cut off the plane's transponder and other equipment, so he intentionally, hijacking possibilities considerably.

5. press the fuel, fly to South India Ocean, whether it was a suicide?

Suicide don't go so far

Zhang said that this is a possible, but I think this is unlikely, because a lot of suicide, there are many ways, don't have to go so far.

Zhang believes that, judging from the present situation, he was to fly to a place before landing, for a purpose, personal or other purposes, it's hard to say. He wanted to fall to an uninhabited island, or Australia the Western desert, but due to lack of fuel, or route deviations, voyage is increasing, so we crashed in the sea in the middle.

Wang Yanan said, at least from the plane's route and the final results, the possibility of suicide is still very large. But there was no wreckage, no black support to prove this conjecture.

6. Overview of the incident? Planes have landed where?

Fall days float variable

Zhang said that now are China, the United States, and France, is that other countries have found floating on the sea, at about 2500 km west of Perth. But this will not be his exact location. Fall, because he was in 8th position, floating between 50 and 100 miles a day, floating or inconsistent. Now been 17 days later, he might fall and where a difference of more than 1000 kilometers of distance. Now looks like he's falling position in the South India Ocean South West.

Now falling position South Australia West Perth some 2000 km, from South India Ocean French island is about more than 1000 km or so, which is probably where he landed, not sure yet.

Wang Yanan said, falling to Perth was still more than 2000 kilometers away, but the nearest landmass is Antarctica, is probably more than 1000 kilometers. Course, it's hard to guess where he is trying to land. Since the landing, South India Ocean islands of land might be his last, further South, is the vast sea. He had passed the Christmas Island over more than 1000 kilometers, the position is his best of the land, unable to evaluate where he's scheduled landing.

Interview Jinghua times, Wang Mei Jinghua times, drawing

(Original title: destination is a uninhabited island or desert area)

　　昨晚，马来西亚总理宣布，马航MH370航班在印度洋南部海域坠毁。飞机为什么向南印度洋方向飞？被劫机的可能性有多大？按照燃油情况，飞机飞向南印度洋是否意味着已经选择了自杀？针对疑问，记者进行采访、整合。

　　1.飞机为什么向南印度洋方向飞？

　　目的地或在沙漠区

　　海军军事学术研究所研究员张军社表示，飞机有可能向澳大利亚西部沙漠地区飞行，也就是珀斯一带，或者飞向印度洋上几个法属的岛屿。

　　张军社说，现在可能是油料不够，或者飞机导航系统出现了问题，或者没找到这些地方，没飞到澳大利亚西部沙漠地区，偏离了岛屿，到了南印度洋的上空，就坠海了。

　　航空知识杂志主编王亚男表示，这是英国航空事故调查局经过严密分析得出来的，基本的依据是飞机与卫星之间的6次握手信息，其把6次握手信息中飞机所在的圆弧都画下来，最后排除北线可能。但具体怎么分析，现在还没有详细的说法。

　　2.飞机的飞行路线有何蹊跷？

　　没想找个好着陆点

　　王亚男表示，从轨迹分析，调头折向南方之前，不管有意也好无意也罢，事实上降低了地面雷达对其探测的可能性。换句话说，其确实有躲避雷达的迹象。在这之后，飞机一头折向了南方，折向了南印度洋，也告诉我们，似乎这架飞机不打算飞向一个条件比较好的着陆点。要想着地，往北飞更近。

　　3.被劫机的可能性有多大？

　　基本可以确认劫机

　　王亚男说，事实上基本上可以确认是劫机，只是不能确认劫持飞机的人员是机组人员还是第三者。

　　张军社说，现在飞机坠毁的具体原因还不得而知，但是从现有情况看，飞机切断了响应应答器等，关闭了通讯系统，现在也没有发现爆炸的线索，不能排除人为原因。现在可能就是里面的人，驾驶员或者是其他人劫持飞机逃往南印度洋地区。

　　4.机长、副机长劫机的可能性是否增大？

　　机组人员嫌疑最大

　　王亚男说，其一直认为机长、副机长参与劫机的可能性是很大的，因为操作飞机，做出这一连串举动，包括关闭这些设备，精通飞行的人的可能性最大，所以他认为机组人员的嫌疑还是最大的。

　　张军社说，从现在来看，这个可能性增大了。但是，也不能排除机上有人胁迫机长或副机长，发生劫机的可能性是很大的。如果不是劫机，光是机器出现故障，机长发现了以后，在马来西亚与越南交界的地方开始，往回折返，折返到马来西亚上空，他早应该报告，或者要求试着降落马来西亚机场。但他没有，他切断飞机的应答器等设备，所以他是有意的，劫机的可能性很大。

　　5.按燃油情况，飞向南印度洋是否是自杀？

　　自杀不用跑这么远

　　张军社说，这算是一个可能，但我觉得这个可能性不大，因为自杀有很多可能，有很多方式，不用跑这么远。

　　张军社认为，从现在的情况来看，他是想飞到一个地方，然后降落，实现一个目的，个人的目的或者是其他目的，这很难说。他想落到无人岛，或者澳大利亚西部沙漠地带，但是由于油料不够，或者航线出现偏差，航程增大，所以才中途坠落在海里。

　　王亚男说，至少从飞机的路线和最后的结果来看，自杀的可能性还是很大的。但是没有残骸，没有黑匣子的佐证来证明这个猜想。

　　6.事发地的概况？飞机有可能在哪里着陆？

　　坠落多日漂浮不定

　　张军社说，现在无论是中国、美国、法国也好，还是其他国家发现的海上漂浮物，都在珀斯西2500公里左右。但这个不会是他准确的位置。因为他在8号坠落的位置，每天漂浮50到100公里，漂浮方向还不一致。现在已经17天过去了，他可能和原来坠落的位置相差1000多公里的距离。现在看来他的坠落位置是在南印度洋南偏西一点。

　　现在坠落位置南部离澳大利亚西部珀斯大概有2000公里，离南印度洋上那几个法属的岛屿大概有1000多公里左右，所以这两个地方都可能是他想降落的地方，还不确定。

　　王亚男说，坠落地离珀斯还有2000多公里，但距离最近的陆地是南极大陆，大概是1000多公里。按照航线，很难猜想他想在哪着陆。因为着陆的话，南印度洋的群岛可能是他理想的最后的着陆地，再往南去的话，就是茫茫的大海。他已经飞过了圣诞岛1000多公里，那个位置是他最理想的着陆地了，所以无法计算他预定在哪着陆。

　　本版采写京华时报记者王梅京华时报制图何将

(原标题：目的地可能是无人岛或沙漠区)

赞