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The author:(作者)归海一刀
published in(发表于) 2014/4/29 9:24:49
Profits continue to decline： 4G can’t save China Mobile，

Profits?continue?to?decline:?4G?can′t?save?China?Mobile-China?Mobile,?4G,?the?three?carriers-IT?news?Profits?continue?to?decline:?4G?or?any?other?mobile

Move?since?its?inception,?is?entering?a?crucial?period?of?adjustment.?On?April?22,?2014,?China?Mobile′s?latest?earnings?report?showed?that?in?the?first?quarter?of?2014,?moving?only?25.2?billion?yuan?in?net?profit,?down?9.4%;?1?month?ago,?China?Mobile?announced?the?2013?annual?report,?its?net?profit?fell?to?5.2%,?fell?for?the?first?time?in?14?years.

It?is?clear?that?the?head?had?been?fast-run?elephant?finally?ran?was?tired.

Through?these?figures,?we?can?see?what?facts?

1?move?the?profit?declines,?while?at?the?same?time,?China?Telecom?and?China?Unicom?have?achieved?results?and?profits?rose,?but?that?does?not?mean?China?Mobile?fell?due?to?a?tactical?error.

In?fact,?the?whole?telecom?industry?growth?has?slowed,?or?close?to?the?turning?point?has?been?reached,?two?other?operators?′?profit?growth?has?reason.

Like?in?the?telecommunications,?2014?first?quarter?while?achieved?profit?5.569?billion?yuan,?compared?growth?17.7%,?but?it?of?profit?sources?which?main?comes?from?two?big?factors:?2008?acquisition?CDMA?Shi?purchased?into?of?customer?relationship?value?Yu?2013?assessment?pin?finished,?promoting?depreciation?assessment?pin?costs?compared?declined?about?1.017?billion?yuan,?and?January?1,?2014?up?entered?into?force?of?mobile?network?between?interconnect?settlement?standard?adjustment,?promotion?other?operating?costs?compared?declined?has?5.4%?(about?713?million?yuan).

This?means?that,?without?taking?account?of?the?above?two?factors,?China?Telecom′s?first-quarter?profit,?also?in?decline.

2,?the?current,?the?problems?faced?by?the?industry?as?a?whole,?outside?early?in?dispute.

The?external?environment:?market?saturation,?slowing?subscriber?growth,?communication?charges?yearly?decrease?internal?environment:?large?enterprises,?managing?escalating?out?of?control?conflict;?external?Paradox:?the?mobile?Internet?business?acceleration?especially?OTT?alternative?paradox:?private?capital?into?the?catfish?effect?will?become?further?sparked?a?price?war.

It?can?be?said?that?regardless?of?the?weather,?geography,?people,?and?operators?are?in?the?most?difficult?moments,?but?they?faced,?not?cyclical?problems,?but?long-term?problems.?Only?the?total?transformation,?is?likely?to?usher?in?a?new?development.

For?operators,?this?structural?problem,?cannot?be?solved?in?the?short?term?fix,?it?means?that?operators?are?only?now?just?"winter",?the?future?will?be?challenging,?decline?in?performance?will?be?further?accelerated,?and?may?take?longer?than?expected.

3,?at?present,?the?most?affected?is?the?short?message?service.?Although?sidestepped?specific?moving?earnings?ratio,?but?by?comparison?can?be?found?in?the?first?quarter?of?2014,?total?mobile?SMS?use?has?dropped?to?153?billion,?down?more?than?20%.?

4,?and?worth?note?of?is,?three?big?operators?has?special?of?double?identity:?both?bear?party,?and?political,?and?army,?and?people?of?communications?support?and?General?Service?of?utilities?property,?also?has?keep?profit?growth?of?marketing?enterprise?property;?and?they?of?management?also?very?complex:?Ministry?is?responsible?for?vertical?of?industry?management,?Department?is?responsible?for?leadership?of?personnel?management,?country?funding?Board?is?responsible?for?State?assets?of?management?and?performance?examination,?also?operators?also?must?on?listed?company?of?shareholders?is?responsible?for.?

Such?a?complex?mechanism?of?orientation?and?decided?the?disadvantages?and?advantages?of?development?of?three?carriers:

Disadvantage?is?to?locate?the?fuzzy,?resulting?in?their?strategies?and?values?repeatedly?and?even?chaos,?business?direction?and?execution?involved.

Advantage?is?that?the?three?carriers?will?receive?the?policy?of?"limited?waxbacked?tissue"?within?the?controllable?range,?operators?face?the?most?hostile?circumstances,?can?still?guarantee?the?most?basic?survival?mode,?although?it?is?not?the?operator,?would?like?to?see?the?situation.

5,?this?Administration?is?pushing?conversion?increase?of?camp?mixed?ownership?reform,?reform?of?Yamashita,?also?will?provide?operators?with?a?chain?reaction,?especially?to?the?extent?possible?"by?market?mechanism"?to?promote?more?reforms,?regulators?will?have?to?use?the?settlement?policy?tools?such?as?operators?exert?macroeconomic?control.

In?such?a?situation,?is?still?dominating?the?market?dominant?position,?with?relatively?abundant?cash?flow?moving,?is?the?most?important?"regulated",?the?net?closing?adjustments?are?a?clear?sign.

Move?through?it?would?exacerbate?the?downward?trend,?coupled?with?4G?network?and?subsidize?big,?China?Mobile′s?cash?flow?was?draining.?But?UBS′s?latest?research?shows?China?Mobile′s?own?cash?flow?more?than?100?billion?in?2012,?but?2013?has?only?40?billion?is?expected?in?2014?is?likely?to?drop?to?near?zero?or?even?lower.

6,?in?the?background,?move?policy?in?fact?there?has?also?been?a?subtle?change.?By?2013,?"transparency?rather?than?overconfident?rhetoric",?doing?their?best?to?grow?into?active?"steady?performance".

Whitewash?reduced?performance?is?simple,?but?can?reduce?both?internal?and?external?pressures?for?growth?while?avoiding?the?"Jia?Yi?to?others",?while?also?alleviating?encounter?public?pressure?because?of?high?profits,?move?a?suitor?to,?and?under?the?current?situation,?is?certainly?a?good?move?in?chess.

7,?but?for?moving?it,?such?tactics?need?to?grasp?a?sense?of?propriety,?if?performance?continued?to?deteriorate,?once?solidified,?employees?and?suppliers?the?hearts?of?discrete,?may?exacerbate?slowdown?in?performance.

8,4G?is?unlikely?to?be?the?operator′s?Savior,?but?rather?will?accelerate?the?pace?of?OTT?service?alternative.?

This?zhiqian,?three?big?operators?while?are?claimed?to?to?telecommunications?of,?to?to?Internet?learning,?and?transformation,?but?actually?remains?to?each?other?for?competition?frame,?and?thus?launched?has?3G?and?4G?of?built?network?and?market?vs;?but?in?future,?only?has?a?Zhang?advantage?of,?than?other?operators?of?network,?does?not?meant?with?on?can?obtained?enough?of?return,?needs?will?gravity?as?soon?as?possible?adjustment?for?products?and?commercial?mode?of?lost?generation,?and?on?user?of?service,?thereby?in?and?industry?chain?Shang?downstream?of?competition?in?the,?as?keep?user?entrance?of?limited?language?language?right.

9,?and?from?2003?to?2013?of?gold?10?years?in?the,?operators?missed?has?investment?Internet?and?mobile?Internet,?from?business?operators?to?investment?group?transformation?of?valuable?time?window--now,?this?a?discourse?right,?has?transfer?to?to?BAT?for?representative?of?Internet?Enterprise?hands,?and?BAT--especially?Ali?and?Tencent?on?industry?chain?of?merger?has?basic?control?trend,?operators?has?no?obviously?opportunities.?

10,?the?virtual?network?operator?"domestication"?for?their?own?business?"wholesalers"?of?operators?′?employees?are?expected,?but?this,?too,?is?only?possible?as?a?transitional?policy,?once?a?virtual?operator?can?gain?a?foothold,?the?situation?will?reverse?again,?carriers?would?be?in?even?worse?situations.

11,?operators?of?the?economies?in?transition?are?concerned,?at?present?needs?to?change,?not?a?business?on?the?Internet,?but?in?the?institutions,?mechanisms,?management?and?corporate?culture,?"telecommunications".

利润持续下滑：4G也救不了中国移动?-?中国移动,4G,三大运营商?-?IT资讯

利润持续下滑：4G也救不了中国移动

中移动正在进入一个自成立以来最关键的调整期。2014年4月22日，中移动发布的最新财报显示，在2014年第一季度，中移动净利润仅实现252亿人民币，同比下降9.4%；在此1个月之前，中移动公布的2013年年报显示，其净利润同比下降5.2%，为14年来的首次同比下滑。

显然，这头一直在快速奔跑的大象，终于跑累了。

透过这些数字，我们看到哪些事实？

1、虽然在中移动利润下滑同时，中电信和联通都实现了业绩和利润的同比增长，但这并不意味着，中移动的下滑是战术失误所致。

事实上，整个电信运营业的增长都已经放缓，并已到达或接近拐点，其他两家运营商的利润增长都各有原因。

比如中电信，2014年第一季度虽然实现利润55.69亿元，同比增长17.7%，但它的利润来源其中主要来源于两大因素：2008年收购CDMA时购入的客户关系价值于2013年摊销完毕，促折旧摊销费用同比下降约10.17亿元，以及2014年1月1日起生效的移动网间互联结算标准调整，促进其他经营费用同比下降了5.4%（约7.13亿元）。

这意味着，如果不考虑以上两个因素，中电信的一季度利润，其实也在下滑。

2、当前，整个行业面临的问题，外界早有定论。

外部环境：市场日趋饱和，用户增长放缓，通信资费逐年降低；内部环境：大企业病加剧，管理失控矛盾激化；外部矛盾：移动互联网尤其是OTT的业务加速替代；行业矛盾：民资进入产生鲶鱼效应，将成为更进一步价格战的导火索。

可以说，无论天时、地利、人和，运营商都处在最艰难的时刻，而且它们面临的，不是周期性的问题，而是长期问题。只有彻底转型，才有可能迎来新的快速发展。

而且对运营商来说，这样结构性的问题，不可能在短期内解决修复，这意味着，运营商现在才刚刚“入冬”，未来的形势将更加艰巨，业绩的下滑将进一步加速，而且持续时间可能超出预期。

3、当前，受影响最大的是短信业务。虽然中移动财报中回避了具体比例，但通过数据对比可以发现，在2014年第一季度，中移动的短信使用总量已下降至1530亿条，同比下降了超过20%。

4、值得注意的是，三大运营商具有特殊的双重身份：既有承担党、政、军、民的通信支撑和普遍服务的公用事业属性，也有保持盈利增长的市场化企业属性；而它们的管理也非常复杂：工信部负责垂直的行业管理，中组部负责领导班子的人事管理，国资委负责国有资产的管理与业绩考核，此外运营商还必须对上市公司的股东负责。

这样复杂的定位与机制，决定了三大运营商发展的劣势与优势：

劣势是定位模糊，导致自身战略与价值观反复甚至混乱，业务方向与执行力受拖累。

优势则是，三大运营商将获得政策的“有限托底”，在形势可控的范围内，运营商即使面临最恶劣的情况，仍然能保证最基本的生存模式，虽然那并不是运营商所希望见到的局面。

5、在本届政府力推的混合所有制改革、营改增改革等大政，也将为运营商的形势带来连锁反应，尤其是为了尽可能“以市场化方式”推进以上改革，监管部门将不得不使用结算政策等工具，在运营商之间施展宏观调控。

在这样的形势下，目前仍占据市场主导地位、拥有相对充沛现金流的中移动，是最主要的“被调控者”，网间结算调整即是明显征兆。

这将加剧中移动的下滑趋势，加上4G建网和补贴的大笔开支，中移动的现金流正在不断消耗。而来自瑞银的最新研报显示，中移动的自有现金流在2012年逾1000亿，但2013年已仅剩400亿，预计2014年有可能为降到接近为零，甚至更低。

6、在这样的背景下，中移动的策略实际上也已经有了微妙变化。从2013年以前的“打肿脸充胖子”，拼尽全力保增长，改为主动“稳业绩”。

减少业绩粉饰很简单，却可以既降低内部外部的增长压力，又避免“为他人做嫁衣”，同时也缓解因为高利润而遭遇的舆论压力，中移动的以退为进，在当前形势下，无疑是一步好棋。

7、但对中移动来说，这样的手段需要把握分寸，如业绩持续恶化，一旦形势固化，员工与供应商人心离散，反而可能加剧业绩的下滑势头。

8、4G不可能成为运营商的救星，反而会加快OTT业务的替代速度。

在此之前，三大运营商虽然都宣称要去电信化，要向互联网学习、转型，但其实仍是以彼此为竞争参照系，并由此发起了3G和4G的建网和市场大战；但在未来，仅有一张优势的，胜于其他运营商的网络，并不意味着就能获得足够的回报，需要将重心尽快调整为产品与商业模式的失代，以及对用户的服务，从而在与产业链上下游的竞争中，尽可能保持用户入口的有限语语权。

9、从2003年到2013年的黄金10年中，运营商错过了投资互联网和移动互联网，从业务运营商向投资集团转型的宝贵时间窗口——现在，这一话语权，已经转移到以BAT为代表的互联网企业手中，而BAT——尤其是阿里和腾讯对产业链的并购已经基本掌控大势，运营商已无明显机会。

10、将虚拟运营商“驯化”为自身的业务“批发商”，是一些运营商员工的期望，但这同样只可能作为过渡政策，否则一旦虚拟运营商站稳脚根，形势将再次逆转，运营商将陷入更被动局面。

11、就运营商的转型而言，目前首先需要变革的，不是业务上的互联网化，而是在机构、机制、管理乃至于公司文化层面的“去电信化”。

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