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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/4/29 9:36:52 Real estate annual report is expected to focus on pushing city year real estate taxes
Real?estate?transactions?or?"do?not?increase?not?decrease"
Today,?the?Chinese?Academy?of?Social?Sciences?Institute?of?urban?development?and?environment?of?real?estate?blue?book?published?jointly?with?the?social?sciences?documentation?publishing?house?the?China?real?estate?development?(2014).?Reports?noted?that?2014?will?remain?in?macroeconomic?7%?to?8%?of?the?stable?and?relatively?fast?growth,?national?economic?policies?will?further?tilt?toward?residential?urbanization,?improve?people′s?livelihood,?and?real?estate?policy?and?regulation?will?be?carried?out?on?this?topic.
2014?trends?will?depend?on?policy?implementation?and?selection?of?the?real?estate?market,?real?estate?trading?volume?remained?unchanged?from?the?previous?year,?even?a?slight?increase?in?prices?are?likely?to?remain?a?modest?increase,?the?gain?depends?on?policy.?Increased?market?differentiation?between?cities,?regions?and?applying?policy,?classified?policy?trends?evident?in?city,?regulatory?policy?diversity?and?pluralism?will?be?the?norm.
Industry?experts?told?the?legal?evening?news?said?in?an?interview?with?a?reporter,?expects?foreign?employment?accounted?for?relatively?large?urban?housing?will?align?litres,?while?most?ordinary?City?real?estate?trading?volume?and?prices?will?remain?relatively?stable.?Lack?of?industry?support?and?one-sided?in?the?early?town,?would?greatly?increase?the?risk?of?foam.
Current?status?land?prices?rise?the?housing?market?exception?deserted
This?year,?the?rise?in?land?prices,?supporters?of?side?is?unusually?deserted.
Entered?in?March,?following?the?many?second-tier?cities?such?as?Hangzhou,?Changzhou?property?after?slashing?prices,?including?Guangzhou,?Shanghai?property?for?rent?in?first-tier?cities,?there?have?been?substantially?discounted.
According?to?media?reports,?on?March?23,?is?located?in?Xiaoshan?District,?Hangzhou?City,?Zhejiang?province′s?Kaiyuan?County?real?estate?prices,?the?highest?drop?of?up?to?2700?Yuan/sq?m,?which?is?regarded?as?Hangzhou?second?round?of?price?cuts?in?the?industry?tide?strikes.
The?prices?increase?depends?on?real?estate?regulatory?policy?and?capital?market?orientation.?If?excessive?housing?links,?such?as?tax?regulation?policies?can?be?issued?in?time,?effects?to?be?released?to?the?formation?of?the?stock?of?housing?supply,?demand?for?investment?in?speculative?form?of?squeezing,?would?significantly?ease?the?contradiction?between?supply?and?demand?of?real?estate?in?particular?housing,?house?prices?rose?will?be?greatly?reduced.
But?the?blue?book?also?noted?that?since?2010?stock?higher?exchange?transactions?in?the?second-hand?housing?market?through?multiple,?multiple?apartments?portion?of?the?housing?stock?has?decreased,?so?the?stock?of?housing?supply?release?will?not?be?much?impact?on?the?relationship?between?supply?and?demand?of?the?market?as?a?whole.
Blue?book?forecast?that?most?ordinary?cities?in?2013?decades?large?volumes?were?released?in?2014,?further?limited?demand?growth,?its?real?estate?turnover?and?prices?will?remain?relatively?stable.
Chinese?Academy?of?social?sciences?city?development?and?Environment?Institute?researcher?Li?Jingguo?pointed?out?that,?despite?2014?early?national?monthly?real?estate?trading?is?atrophy?posture,?part?city?of?individual?properties?for?sale?appeared?has?price?phenomenon,?we?judgment?experience?a?time?of?market?brewing?and?policy?wait-and-see?Hou,?2014?real?estate?market?trading?heat?still?will?continued,?throughout?national?real?estate?trading?total?still?may?and?last?year?flat?even?slightly?has?growth,?sold?price?also?may?keep?edged?growth.
Analysis?of?hot?and?cold?are?ghost?towns?or?increasing
Statistics?show?that?in?2013,?the?national?land?prices?rose?sharply?in?2013?in?the?average?price?of?land?were?sold?for?2555?Yuan/sq?m?in?2012,?rising?to?23%.?According?to?the?classification?of?land?use,?residential?land?prices?rising?faster?than?premium?commercial?and?industrial?land.
Blue?book?says,?from?the?perspective?of?total?supply?expected?in?2014?land?supply?will?remain?at?high?levels,?and?trends?for?the?steady?increase?in?the?overall?performance.
Blue?book?analysis?of?the?expert?group?that,?land?price?hikes,?especially?for?residential?land?rose?will?heighten?pressure?on?prices,?especially?housing?prices.?Rise?in?land?prices?is?not?only?directly?increase?the?cost?of?real?estate?land?and?affecting?the?real?estate?market?expectations?of?future?prices,?thereby?indirectly?affect?the?trading?price.
The?Group?expressed,?the?land?price?hikes?also?increase?risks?in?the?financial?system.?In?China′s?financial?system,?whether?it?is?local?government?funding,?or?corporate?finance,?land?is?an?important?collateral?loans?secured?by?land,?large?swings?in?the?price?of?land?will?no?doubt?lead?to?greater?credit?risks?of?banks?and?other?financial?institutions.
In?a?number?of?migration-related?institutional?reforms,?driven?by?foreign?industrialized?city?with?higher?proportion?of?the?employed?population?and?consumer?services?can?offer?a?diverse?range?of?employment?opportunities?and?diversity?of?Metropolitan,?rural-urban?migration?and?the?City?attraction?would?greatly?increase?migration?population?live?in?towns,?real?estate?in?particular,?a?rapid?growth?in?housing?demand?will?drive?these?align?litres?city?property,?in?particular?the?housing?market.
And?some?lack?of?industry?support?and?one-sided?an?artificial?city?in?the?early?town,?would?greatly?increase?the?risk?of?oversupply?of?real?estate?bubble,?ghost?towns,?ghost?town?quantity?will?also?be?increased?to?a?certain?extent.
Beijing?fall?undiminished?demand?for?housing?in?urban?areas
Beijing?this?year?to?achieve?50,000?sets?of?owner-occupied?housing?(2013?for?20,000?sets),?on?the?premise?of?overall?stability?of?supply,?will?continue?to?tilt?toward?housing?land?supply.
From?the?perspective?of?supply?area,?since?2010,?land?supply?suburbanization?(five?rings),?trend?strengthened?year?by?year,?in?2013,?the?ultra-50%?of?land?supply?concentrated?in?Fangshan?district,?Tongzhou?district,?Changping,?Daxing?four?regions,?is?expected?in?2014,?this?trend?will?continue.
Blue?book?said?that?in?recent?years?because?of?land?consolidation?and?rehabilitation?in?the?levels?of?development?costs?continue?to?rise,?Government?receipts?also?refer?to?the?surrounding?land?transaction?prices,?real?estate?transaction?prices,?2012,?2013?land?prices?in?Beijing?are?quick?and?the?prices?rose?sharply,?high?land?prices?in?the?appropriate?growth,?coupled?with?fierce?competition?in?the?market,?expected?in?2014?land?prices?come?down?hard.
Centaline?Research?Manager?Jin?Ruixin?said?that?2014?will?continue?to?strictly?implement?the?Beijing?property?market?regulation?and?policy,?while?residential?housing?there?are?50,000?sets?of?supplies,?and?the?price?is?lower?than?the?surrounding?residential?30%.?Such?a?policy?environment?required?to?the?overall?housing?market?supply?and?demand?tensions?play?a?mitigating?role?and?act?as?a?brake?on?the?effect?on?housing?prices.
However?due?to?the?geographical?properties?of?the?irreplaceable?nature?of?housing,?said?Jin?Ruixin,?urban?housing?demand?will?not?decline?or?rise.?Policy?and?increase?the?supply?of?housing?is?located?in?the?central?area?and?urban?fringe?areas,?effect?on?the?prices?of?these?two?major?regions?are?huge?price?hikes?underpowered.
Policy?focus?on?major?or?pursue?a?property?tax
Blue?book?says,?in?2013,?again?under?conditions?of?relatively?slow?economic?growth?rates?and?rapid?growth,?making?conflicts?further?accumulation?of?real?estate?market,?raised?many?controversies?and?concerns?of?real?estate?market?bubble,?as?a?safeguard?against?the?housing?bubble?and?resulting?financial?and?economic?risks,?could?prompt?States?to?impose?further?regulation?and?control?policy.
One?size?fits?all?regulation?and?control?policy?of?the?country?for?a?long?time?little?effects?on?the?property?market,?higher?house?prices?adjustment?and?the?contradictions?of?market?adjustment?accumulated?more?and?more?sharpened?criticism?on?all?sides.
Blue?book?expected?2014?to?again?dominate?the?real?estate?regulatory?policy?of?the?Central?Government.?However,?specific?control?measures?would?strengthen?the?urban?classification?criteria,?classification?based?on?the?differentiated?urban?standards?implementation?of?regulatory?policy,?regulatory?measures?are?also?more?diversified?for?different?groups.
Li?Jingguo?said?that?expected?in?2014,?optimization?of?tax?reform?in?the?area?of?real?estate?are?expected?to?advance,?in?cities?such?as?Shanghai?and?Chongqing?real?estate?taxes?on?a?pilot?basis,?to?include?common?stock?of?housing?for?excess?housing?holding?the?object?of?taxation?tax?levy?is?expected?to?focus?on?cities.
Forecast?increase?in?consumer?demand
Blue?book?noted?that?in?2014,?demand?for?real?estate?will?maintain?growth,?consumer?demand?is?expected?to?continue?to?be?released,?but?investing?in?speculative?demand?will?depend?on?the?domestic?and?international?capital?market?trends?and?orientation?of?monetary?policy,?there?is?a?big?uncertainty.
Household?income?continues?to?grow,?spending?on?housing?continuous?decline?in?proportion?of?total?household?income?and?savings,?which?contribute?to?the?homeless?families?(the?first)?housing?purchase?growth?in?demand,?also?causes?family?to?upgrade?(two?sets),?significant?increase?in?the?demand?for?housing?purchases.
At?the?same?time,?a?series?of?institutional?reforms?associated?with?migration,?urbanization?advancement?for?living,?will?also?promote?all?kinds?of?city?and?rural-urban?migration?of?the?population?migrated?population?moved?into?acquisition?of?urban?housing?demand.
Blue?book?says?it?can?be?expected?that?in?some?better?able?to?provide?diversified?services,?the?towns?of?diversification?of?employment?opportunities,?with?a?series?of?reforms?carried?out,?exotic?live?migrations?will?be?rapid?population?growth?and?its?acquisition?of?housing?demand?is?also?expected?to?quickly?release.
2014?capital?market?in?China?under?the?influence?of?financial?and?macroeconomic?uncertainty?at?home?and?abroad,?derived?from?the?capital?markets?in?real?estate?investment,?speculative?demand?is?also?facing?uncertainty.
Group?reporter?interview?with?Li?Jingguo?told?the?legal?evening?news?said?countries?such?as?implementing?active?financial?policy?and?industrial?policy?combining?may?idle?capital?formation?effective?triage.
Text/reporter?Wang?TINGTING?and?intern?Wong?Jing
房产交易量或“不增不减”
今天，中国社科院城市发展与环境研究所与社科文献出版社联合发布房地产蓝皮书《中国房地产发展报告(2014)》。报告指出2014年宏观经济仍将保持在7%至8%的平稳较快增长态势，国家经济政策将进一步向居住城镇化、改善民生倾斜，房地产政策及调控也将围绕这一主题展开。
2014年房地产市场走势将取决于政策实施与选择，房产交易量仍可能与上年持平，甚至略有增长，房价可能保持小幅增长，具体涨幅取决于政策调控的力度。各城市之间、地区之间市场分化加剧，分城施策、分类施策趋势明显，调控政策差异化和多元化将成为常态。
业内专家接受《法制晚报》记者采访时表示，预计外来就业人口占比较高的大都市楼市将量价齐升，而大多数普通城市房产成交量和价格将保持相对平稳态势。一些缺乏产业支撑且前期片面造城的城镇，泡沫化风险将大大增强。
现状?地价涨房市异常冷清
今年以来，一面是土地价格的上涨，一面却是房市的异常冷清。
进入3月，继杭州、常州等二线城市不少楼盘大幅降价后，包括广州、上海在内的一线城市也出现了楼盘大幅打折出售的情况。
据媒体报道，3月23日，位于浙江省杭州城南萧山区的开元名郡的楼盘正式降价，最高降幅达2700元/平方米，这被业内视为杭州第二轮降价潮来袭。
具体房价涨幅取决于房地产调控政策和资本市场取向。如果过量住房持有税等持有环节调控政策能及时出台，将对存量住房供应形成释放效应，也对投资投机性需求形成挤压效应，将能大大缓解房产特别是住房供需矛盾，房价涨幅将大大缩小。
但蓝皮书同时指出，由于2010年以来存量二手住房市场经历多次的较高换手交易，存量住房中多套住房持有比重已经有所下降，因此存量住房供应释放对整体市场供需关系的影响不会太大。
蓝皮书预测，大多数普通城市在经历了2013年较大的成交量释放后，2014年进一步的需求增长有限，其房产成交量和价格将保持相对平稳态势。
中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所研究员李景国指出，尽管2014年初全国月度房产交易呈萎缩态势，部分城市的个别楼盘出现了降价现象，我们判断经历一段时间的市场酝酿和政策观望后，2014年房产市场交易热度仍将延续，全年全国房产交易总量仍可能与上年持平甚至略有增长，成交价也可能保持小幅增长。
分析?冷热不均鬼城或增加
统计表明，2013年全国土地成交价格大幅上涨，2013年全国土地成交的平均价格为2555元/平方米，比2012年涨23%。按土地用途分类看，住宅地价的上涨幅度高于商服地价和工业地价。
蓝皮书称，从供应总量看，预计2014年土地供应仍会保持在高位，且整体表现为稳中有升的态势。
蓝皮书专家组分析认为，土地价格的过快上涨，尤其是住宅用地价格的上涨，将加剧房价尤其是住房价格上涨的压力。土地价格的上涨不仅直接增加了房地产开发的土地成本，而且影响房地产市场对未来房价的预期，从而间接影响交易价格。
专家组表示，土地价格的过快上涨还会增加金融系统风险。在我国的金融体系中，无论是地方政府融资，还是企业融资，土地都是重要的抵押品，大量贷款以土地为抵押，土地价格的大幅波动，无疑会给银行等金融机构带来更大的信贷风险。
在一系列与人口迁移相关的制度改革推动下，外来就业人口占比较高的工业化城市以及能够提供多样化就业机会和多样化消费服务的大都市，对乡城迁移和城城迁移人口居住城镇化的吸引力将大大增强，房产特别是住房需求将呈快速增长态势，必将推动这些城市房产特别是住房市场量价齐升。
而一些缺乏产业支撑，又在前期片面进行人为造城的城镇，房产供过于求的泡沫化风险将大大增强，鬼城、死城数量也将会在一定程度上增加。
北京落点?城区二手房需求量不减
北京市今年要实现5万套自住型商品住房的供地(2013年为2万套)，在供应总量总体稳定的前提下，土地供应将继续向自住房倾斜。
从供应区域看，自2010年以来，土地供应郊区化(五环以外)趋势逐年加强，2013年，超五成的土地供应集中在房山、通州、昌平、大兴四个区域，预计2014年这种趋势将延续。
蓝皮书称，由于近年来土地开发整理中一级开发成本持续攀升，政府收益也参考周边土地交易价格、房地产交易价格，而2012年、2013年北京市地价、房价均快速大幅上涨，土地价格相应增长较高，加上土地市场的激烈竞争，预计2014年土地价格很难回落。
中原地产研究部经理靳瑞欣表示，2014年北京的楼市调控政策仍将从严执行，同时自住型住房将有5万套供应，且价格低于周边商品住宅30%。这样的楼市政策环境将对整体住房市场的刚需供求紧张状况起到一定缓解作用，并对房价起到抑制效果。
然而由于房屋地域属性的不可替代性，靳瑞欣表示，城区内的二手房需求量不会下滑，或将上升。政策保障房和自住房的供应更多地位于次中心区和城市边缘区，对这两大区域的价格影响颇大，价格大幅上涨动力不足。
政策重点大城市或推行房产税
蓝皮书称，2013年在经济增速相对放缓条件下房价再次较快增长，使得房地产市场矛盾进一步累积，引发多方面对房地产市场泡沫化的争论和担忧，为防范房地产泡沫化以及由此引发的金融和经济风险，可能促使国家实施更加严厉的调控政策。
长期以来全国一刀切的调控政策对房地产市场调控效果甚微，房价越调越高、市场矛盾越调越累积越激化，受到各方面诟病。
蓝皮书预期，2014年中央政府将重新主导房地产调控政策。不过具体的调控措施将强化城市分类条件，根据各分类城市标准实施差异化的调控政策，调控措施也更多体现针对不同人群的多元化方向。
李景国表示，预期2014年房地产领域税费优化改革有望推进，在重庆、上海等城市房产税试点基础上，以包括普通存量住房为征税对象的过量住房持有税有望在重点城市开征。
预测?消费性购房需求有增无减?
蓝皮书指出，2014年房地产需求仍将保持一定的增长态势，消费性自住购房需求有望继续释放，但投资投机性需求则取决于国内外资本市场趋势和金融政策取向，存在较大的不确定性。
居民收入持续增长，使住房支出占家庭收入和储蓄比重持续下降，既促使无房家庭的基本(首套)住房购置需求增长，也导致居民家庭改善性(二套)住房购置需求大增。
同时，与人口迁移相关的一系列制度改革，对居住城镇化的推进，也必将促使各类乡城迁移人口和城城迁移人口对迁入地城镇住房的购置需求增长。
蓝皮书称，可以预期，在一些能够较好提供多样化服务、多样化就业机会的城镇，随着一系列制度改革落到实处，外来居住迁移人口将快速增长，其住房购置需求也有望快速释放。
2014年中国资本市场受国内外金融政策和宏观经济不确定性影响，由资本市场派生的房地产投资、投机性需求也面临不确定性。
专家组李景国接受《法制晚报》记者采访时称，国家如实施与产业政策相结合的积极金融政策，可能对闲置资本形成有效的分流。
文/记者王婷婷实习生王晶
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