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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/5/5 7:50:04 Statistics in response to World Bank report： overestimating China’s GDP
Authorities wide nets Beijing, May 5 (Xinhua Zhang Mian Mian) for the World Bank recently released its 2011 "the international comparison project" reported in China this year could go beyond the United States to become the world's number one economy. NBS experts respond that involved leading Chinese data do not adequately reflect the actual situation in China. Especially comparing results underestimated the price level in China, overestimating the size of China's GDP.
Measuring a country's economy, GDP, then how do you compare between countries? Economic Management College, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Professor Ren Ruoen Big Mac index as an example, PPP purchasing power parity method, it represents a different way to space to battle, that is, and base unit of currency with the same number of the purchasing power of the national currency. For example, in the United States to buy a big Mac Burger is $ 3, needs 15 million in China, the Yuan against the dollar is 1 5,PPP is 5.
Ren Ruoen: PPP is purchasing power parity PPP actually reflect prices relative to the relationship between the two countries, so his original meaning is that the purchasing power of a currency between different countries should be equal, was his cheap English is actually parity,parity is equal to the mean.
In the past, in addition to the purchasing power parity method, there are exchange rate method, compared to the latter, excluding exchange-rate fluctuations, purchasing power parity law should say much more advanced.
Ren Ruoen: exchange rate is a long-term fluctuations in the size of a variable, this variable on the international foreign exchange market due to various changes in financial speculation is now growing, so I used it to measure the relationship between the two countries in economic output is far from ideal.
ICP comparisons using the purchasing power parity method item is generally for a period of 5 years, from 1968 to the present has organized eight rounds. In 2008, the United Nations started the eighth round of the global international comparison, it is also all the participating countries one of the largest, 199 countries and economies around the world to attend. Project implementation implementing a three-tier management: at the global level, under the ICP Global Office led and coordinated by the World Bank, and regional institutions of the economic activity in six geographic areas supervisory cooperation, data provided by States.
Although the ICP project participants to make efforts, but that doesn't mean it's perfect, this is one of the biggest flaws, because of the stage of economic development of countries, unlike direct comparisons inevitable errors.
Ren Ruoen: in Europe national of this residents of beverage in the main of is this drinks is coffee, in China lots Asia national of this including Japan he of main of drinks is tea, this two a things certainly is not than, also has like this in amateur time to restaurant dinner in developed certainly is used, in China on most of General people for to restaurant dinner still is a is scarce of things.
On April 30, the Bank's report has finally been published, according to the report, between China and the size of its economy is shrinking in 2011, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached United States 87% may this year, China will surpass United States as the world's biggest economy than previously expected before 2020 6 years ahead of time. Statistics experts believe that, due to the limitations of the methodology and main results of deficiencies in the application, involves primary data for China do not adequately reflect the actual situation in China. Especially comparing results underestimated the price level in China, overestimating the size of China's GDP.
Results announced by the Global Office, China's price level only the 70% of the world average level, only United States price of 54%, China's price level even lower than in many African countries.
National accounts Director of the academic Committee of the Institute of Beijing Normal University Qiu Dong: in fact, China's prices are high, the Chinese went abroad every year to shop abroad, as local and inexpensive, in Chinese, this ratio is not small. Their markets are right in feeling that, so you can't say that the market is wrong, the Chinese are wrong. There is only this number is right, this is not to replace reality with digital marketing judgment.
Germany news believed that China's economy beyond the end of this year, United States, skeptics a blow to China. But China has long remained first, lessons should be learned. Japan, Sankei Shimbun said, relying on high-consumption industries, and real estate to elect China's economic data is considered "health issue", the possibility of continued growth questionable. But no matter what the external evaluation in China's current development situation, exceed United States is a matter of time.
Ren Ruoen: now if this year does not exceed the United States, China is now faster than the United States itself by several percentage points, that next year will be the year after will be too, so China is one of the largest economies in the world, this is a matter of you hiding today and tomorrow.
However, bigger means better? China's merchandise exports last year than the United States and 14%, but imports of goods than the United States 31%. Indeed, the first names that sound good in the world, for China, is far less affordable. Qiu Dong, a Professor of Beijing Normal University believes that "quality" over "quantity" is more important.
Qiu Dong: China's GDP data is very high, but the price for GDP are very large, resource on the environment, which is not reflected in the GDP statistics. In addition, the extreme imbalance of China's economic development, the economic structure is relatively poor, also reflect it.
Furthermore, although the total we quickly got bigger and us real per capita GDP is very low, it is also noteworthy.
Ren Ruoen: we at such a low per capita GDP, we can give the world bear much responsibility? Our people because GDP per capita is behind the people's lives, you want to remove government tax, and finally settled upon all people's incomes don't have much money, that money isn't his life well, you in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region in Tibet, there are a lot of poor people.
PPP more visible is a research method also needs to continue to improve. Although the Chinese economy is large, but unbalanced development, low per capita level, China remains the largest developing country in fact has not changed.
(Original title: Statistical Office, in response to World Bank report: overestimated the GDP of China)
央广网北京5月5日消息(记者张棉棉) 针对世界银行近日发布2011年“国际比较项目”报告，中国今年可能超越美国，成为全球头号经济体。国家统计局有关专家回应称，涉及中国的主要数据不能充分反映中国的实际情况。特别是比较结果低估了中国的物价水平，高估了中国的GDP规模。
衡量一个国家经济规模，有GDP，那么国与国之间又该如何比较？北京航空航天大学经济管理学院教授任若恩以巨无霸指数为例，PPP作为购买力平价法，它代表着不同的空间来较量的方法，就是和基准单位货币拥有相同购买力的本国货币数量。比如说，在美国买一个巨无霸汉堡是3美元，在中国需要15元人民币，那么人民币对美元就是1比5，PPP就是5。
任若恩：PPP就是购买力平价，购买力平价实际上体现的两国的物价之间的相对关系，所以他的原始的含义是说的一个货币在不同国家之间的购买力应该相等，就是他的平价实际上英文是parity，parity是相等的含义。
在过去，除了购买力平价法，还有汇率法，相比后者，剔除了汇率波动，购买力平价法应该说先进得多。
任若恩：汇率是一个长期进行的规模波动的一个变量，这个变量在国际外汇市场上由于各种金融的炒作现在变动越来越大，所以用它的来衡量两个国家经济总量之间的关系是非常不适合的。
利用购买力平价法进行的ICP比较项目一般是5年为一期，从1968年至今已经组织了八轮。2008年，联合国启动第八轮全球国际比较，这也是历次参与国最多的一次，全球有199个国家和经济体参加。项目实施实行三级管理：在全球一级，世界银行下设全球ICP办公室领导和协调，与六个地理区域监管经济活动的区域性机构合作开展，各国提供数据。
虽然ICP项目参与者尽了最大的努力，但并不代表它已经尽善尽美，这其中最大的缺陷就是，由于各国经济发展阶段不一样，直接比较结果就难免出现误差。
任若恩：在欧美国家的这个居民的饮料中主要的是这个饮品是咖啡，在中国好多亚洲国家的这个包括日本他的主要的饮品是茶，这两个东西肯定是不可比，还有比如说这个在业余时间到饭馆吃饭在发达国家肯定就是习以为常，在中国对大多数的普通老百姓来说到饭馆吃饭仍然是一个很稀少的事情。
4月30日，世行报告终于出炉，按照报告，中美之间的经济规模正在缩小，2011年中国国内生产总值(GDP)达到了美国的87%，可能今年中国就会超越美国成为全球最大经济体，比此前预计的2020年前后的时间点提前了6年。国家统计局有关专家认为，由于方法论的局限性和主要结果应用中的缺陷，涉及中国的主要数据不能充分反映中国的实际情况。特别是比较结果低估了中国的物价水平，高估了中国的GDP规模。
按照全球办公室公布的结果，中国的物价水平只有世界平均水平的70%，只是美国价格的54%，中国的价格水平甚至还低于非洲的许多国家。
北京师范大学国民经济核算研究院学术委员会主任邱东：实际上中国的价格很高，中国人每年出国到国外购物的，因为当地的物美价廉，在中国人当中这个比例是不小的。他们的市场感觉是对的，所以你不能说市场错了，这些中国人的选择错了。其实只有这个数字是对的，这个说法不能够用数字来替代现实市场当中的判断。
德国新闻电视台认为，中国的经济今年底超越美国，给中国的怀疑者当头一棒。但是中国要长久保持第一，应该吸取各种教训。日本《产经新闻》称，依赖高消耗产业和房地产来推举数据的中国经济被认为“有健康问题”，是否能够持续增长值得质疑。但无论外界怎样评价，以中国目前的发展态势，超过美国只是迟早的事情。
任若恩：现在就算今年没有超过美国，中国现在增长速度比美国本身就快几个百分点，那明年也会过，后年也会过，所以中国面对在全球是一个最大经济体这个事是个早晚的事，你躲了今天就还有明天。
但是，更大就意味更好吗？中国去年商品出口比美国多14%，但商品进口却比美国少31%。的确，世界第一这个名号听起来好听，对中国来说，却远没有那么多实惠。北师大教授邱东认为，“质”比“量”更重要。
邱东：比如中国的GDP数据很高，但是中国为GDP付出的代价是非常大的，资源上的环境上的，这些在GDP统计上是得不到反映的。另外，中国经济发展的极度不平衡，经济结构是比较差的，也反映不出来。
此外，虽然我们总量在快速变大，可我们的实际人均GDP却很低，这同样值得关注。
任若恩：我们这么低的人均GDP我们能给世界承担多大责任呢？我们的老百姓们，因为人均GDP背后就是人们的生活，你想要把政府的税收再去掉，把所有的最后落到老百姓的收入上没有多少钱，那些钱不就是他的生活嘛，你在到宁夏，在西藏，有很多穷人。
可见PPP更多的还是一个研究成果，计算方法还需要继续完善。中国经济总量虽然很大，但发展不平衡、人均水平低，中国仍是最大的发展中国家的事实并没有因此改变。
(原标题：统计局回应世行报告：高估了中国的GDP)
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