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The author:(作者)归海一刀published in(发表于) 2014/5/27 8:48:37 Unicom Telecom： FDD licence， we missed you so much，
Unicom Telecom: FDD licence, we missed you-FDDLTD,FDD licence, the link 4G Telecom 4G-IT information Unicom Telecom: FDD licence, we have missed you
On May 20 this year, Telecom announced the April operating data, number of mobile users in the month once again reduced to 1.03 million this year from January to April cumulative reduction of 3.41 million mobile users. Coincidentally, China Unicom announced a few days ago April data, mobile user added 895,000 of the month, monthly new mobile users also hit a record low since October 2009. Faced with a sharp decline in the number of users, telecommunications has always been nakedly competitors blamed LTE as well as marketing. Not only that, but an article entitled on the network for China Unicom's subscriber growth followed by telecommunications depression crisis, due to FDD licence-free article is more directed to the FDD licence market imbalances are absent. Article, because only licences for mobile TD-LTE need it most, Unicom and telecom competition in absolutely no way to participate in the 4G, only to let mobile users get out of sight, they themselves are weak growth.
Just when everyone arguing for this view, Mr Yang Haifeng published an article entitled the 3G user has decimated FDD should not be a licence did not see the article, think FDD licence was not Telecom Unicom's sluggish growth and key. The author's view, "simply considers China Unicom, telecom customers fell sharply because the number has not been FDD-LTE a licence is clearly too arbitrary", while China Unicom telecommunications arose because of weak growth, aims to "use this way to persuade the Government to award the FDD".
There is no doubt that Mr Yang Haifeng's point of view is open to question, since the author made several conclusions may wish to analyze them all, pointing out the disadvantages:
First: China's demographic dividend really ended yet?
According to the authors, since the number of mobile users in China had reached 1.258 billion, domestic population of nearly 1.3 billion, so it was natural the new user is very limited. However cannot deny that, because a person has more than one number is very common, actually used the phone number could be far lower than the existence of the 1.258 billion. Because of this, although the number of Chinese mobile users reaching the actual number of people, but only by virtue of this phenomenon finds end of the demographic dividend is clearly a bit ambivalent. Because there are so many people who for economic problems, the network covers a wide range of reasons does not use a mobile phone, it is more appropriate to say "parts of China Mobile users: saturated, end of the demographic dividend."
The second: "increased camp changed" affect how much?
According to the author's assertion that "camp to increase" is one reason Unicom Telecom added users to reduce. It is regrettable that, this view is not correct. On April 30, the State Ministry of finance, the State administration of taxation issued on integrating the telecommunications tax circular on levying VAT reform, announced that starting from June 1 this year formally introduced in telecommunications "camp to increase". Due to "increased camp changed" is to take effect on June 1, 1 to April this year so little impact on operators. On April 30, "camp to increase" after plans to be released, because of corporate accounting processes, IT systems, and many other issues, within a short time the operator does not "increase camp changed" changed the original marketing plan. Because of this, the "camp changed increases" are not Unicom Telecom 1 April additions, the decrease is due.
Third: not FDD licence related to decline in China Unicom's telecommunications customers and big?
According to the author's version, although moving to advocate a massive 4G, mobile 4G customers in April grew only 2.005 million, growth is not obvious, a large number of users are still on the sidelines. Not only that, China Mobile's mobile 2G/3G user 4G additions, mainly from the original, and competitors have no FDD licence is irrelevant.
However the situation is not so simple, and so far from December 4, 2013 4G licensing, in just a few months time, the mobile has been developing for more than 4 million 4G users, this is the 4G network coverage is not perfect without. Not only that, but moving mass of 4G promotion strategy successfully ended up as what they want to transfer users, also had a great appeal on Unicom and Telecom users.
It may be asked, three TD-LTE issued the licence, why China Unicom telecommunications cannot participate in competition? In order to answer this question, so do not give a simple example: If a person wants to drive to work, then this person must first have to drive technology (first of all to obtain a driver's license), as well as affordable cars (you must be rich enough). There is no doubt that both technology and funding. China Unicom, while their GSM/WCDMA network and TD-LTE are fully compatible, there are plenty of phones support (the equivalent of a license), but the interchange lacks sufficient funds for construction of TD-LTE network (equivalent to no money to buy a car). For telecommunications, and not only limited funds into TD-LTE (the equivalent of no money to buy a car), and CDMA network at their disposal cannot be compatible with TD-LTE, supports both CDMA and TD-LTE phone is almost no (equivalent to have a driver's license). Because of lack of funding coupled with technological limitations, the three operators have been TD-LTE a licence, but China Unicom telecommunications could not compete.
In such case, the moving large-scale 4G awareness not only reduces the loss of mobile users from China Unicom, has also succeeded in attracting a large number of Telecom user 4G you want to use. Unicom Telecom FDD licence, then they can always compete in the 4G, with their 4G service to retain users, reducing the attraction of mobile 4G for your user. However only licences for TD-LTE premise, Unicom Telecom due to lack of funding coupled with technical limitations on TD-LTE support is very limited. This shift, naturally not escape the fate of declining number of users. It can be said that Unicom Telecom decline in number of users, and related to many factors, but the main reason is no FDD licence.
Four: China Unicom telecommunications users fall for what purpose?
According to the author's opinion, Unicom Telecom growth phenomena occurs, and is designed to "use this way to persuade the Government to award the FDD". However, according to this article the previous analysis, Telecom CDMA network restrictions simply cannot compete in the 4G, is in a very passive situation. And Unicom while 42M allows HSPA networks participating in the competition, but due to lack of funding, a competitive advantage has been weakened. In the case of mobile 4G mass marketing campaigns, Unicom is likely to step in Telecom's footsteps and additions, decrease substantially or even reduce the number of users. Put aside the objective facts aside, simply finds China Unicom telecommunications users drop had an AX to grind, such a conclusion is convincing.
Five: FDD issued licences now how it fits?
According to the author's opinion, due to the TD-LTE licence issued by the Government and is not recognized by Telecom and Unicom, Unicom Telecom, is low investment to tackle. If the premature issuance of licence FDD-LTE, Telecom and Unicom to spend money before throwing white estimated to be severely criticized by many experts and insiders and ultimately the Government into a dilemma situation.
However, according to the previous analysis, due to the dual restriction of financial and technical, Unicom Telecom support for TD-LTE is relatively limited. Since China's issue of 3G licences lags far behind most countries in the world, so that until today, three operators 3G network's huge investment was far from cost recovery. In this case, the direct result of State issued 4G licenses are two except for the mobile operators ' lack of funds for investment. This is due to objective factors, not China Unicom telecommunications unwilling to invest. Because only licences for TD-LTE, communications market has been completely off balance situation, which clearly contradicts national 08 Telecom restructuring balance three operators in the first place. Even now, FDD issued licences, because of network lag, Unicom Telecom can really compete in the 4G also needs to be at least half a year's time, the competitive landscape will not have much impact. It can be said that FDD issued a licence not only is premature right now, but it was too late.
Summary
Interchange at this stage, the number of new users of telecommunications significantly reduced although it is determined by many factors, but the key reason is that the Ministry is not a FDD-LTE licence. As said before, due to lack of funding coupled with technical constraints, China Unicom telecommunications support for TD-LTE is very limited. Mobile 4G coverage is limited, terminals, and also has a lot of constraints on the package, but the dual advantages of use of funds and public awareness, mobile is fully customizable through substantial subsidies to attract Unicom Telecom user mass migration. For a very long time in the future, rendering of mobile communication market be completely monopolize the 4G market situation.
Last may wish to ask a question, since the authors state that "due to the TD-LTE licence issued by the Government and is not recognized by Telecom and Unicom, Unicom Telecom, is low investment to tackle". Well, since only a small amount to invest to meet, why there are "early release licence FDD-LTE, Telecom and Unicom to spend money before throwing white,
联通电信：FDD牌照，我们想死你了 - FDDLTD,FDD牌照,联通4G,电信4G - IT资讯联通电信：FDD牌照，我们想死你了
今年5月20日，电信公布了4月的运营数据，当月移动用户数再次减少103万，今年1月至4月份移动用户累计减少341万户。无独有偶，几天前联通也发布了4月份的数据，当月移动用户仅新增89.5万，月新增移动用户数更是创下自2009年10月以来新低。面对着用户数的锐减，电信又一次毫不避讳的把原因归咎于竞争对手推出LTE以及加强营销。不仅如此，网络上一篇名为《联通紧跟电信陷用户增长危机，缘于无FDD牌照》的文章更把市场竞争失衡的矛头直指FDD牌照的缺失。文章认为，由于只发移动最需要的TD-LTE牌照，联通和电信完全没有办法参与到4G的竞争中，只能眼睁睁看着移动用户一骑绝尘，自身却增长乏力。
正当大家对此观点争论不休时，杨海峰先生发表了一篇名为《3G用户锐减，不应以FDD牌照未发一叶障目》的文章，认为FDD牌照并非电信联通增长乏力的关键。作者认为，“简单地认为联通、电信用户数大幅下降是因为没有得到FDD-LTE牌照显然过于武断”，而联通电信之所以会出现增长乏力的现象，目的是为了“用这种方式来说服政府发放FDD牌照”。
毫无疑问，杨海峰先生的观点是值得商榷的，由于作者提出了几个结论，不妨一一分析，指出其中的不足：
第一：我国人口红利真的结束了么？
根据作者的说法，由于我国移动用户数已经高达12.58亿，接近13亿的国内人口数，因此自然新增的用户非常有限。然而不能否认的是，由于一个人同时拥有多个号码的情况非常普遍，实际使用手机的人数可能远低于目前所公布的12.58亿。正因为如此，虽然我国移动用户数趋近实际人口数，但是仅仅凭借这个现象就认定人口红利结束显然有些以偏概全。由于国内还有相当多的人因为经济问题、网络覆盖等多种原因并没有使用过手机，因此更恰当的说法是“我国部分地区移动用户数饱和，人口红利结束”。
第二：“营改增”影响有多少？
根据作者的说法，“营改增”也是联通电信新增用户减少的原因之一。遗憾的是，这一观点并不正确。今年4月30日，国家财政部、税务总局发布《关于将电信业纳入营业税改征增值税试点的通知》，宣布今年6月1日起电信业正式实行“营改增”。由于“营改增”的生效时间是6月1日，因此在今年1到4月份对运营商几乎没有影响。即使在4月30日“营改增”方案公布以后，由于涉及到企业报账流程，IT系统改造等诸多问题，短时间内运营商并不会因为“营改增”改变原有营销方案。正因为如此，“营改增”并不是联通电信1到4月份新增用户减少的原因。
第三：联通电信用户下降和没有FDD牌照关系大么？
根据作者的说法，虽然移动进行了大规模的4G宣传，但是移动4G用户4月仅增长200.5万，增长并不明显，大量用户还在观望中。不仅如此，中国移动的4G新增用户主要来自原有移动2G/3G用户，和竞争对手没有FDD牌照无关。
然而情况并没有如此简单，从2013年12月4日4G牌照发放至今，在短短几个月的时间里，移动已经发展了400多万4G用户，这还是在4G网络覆盖没有完善的前提下实现的。不仅如此，移动大规模的4G宣传策略成功稳住了自己想要转网的用户，同时还对联通和电信用户产生了巨大的吸引力。
可能有人会问了，三家都发放TD-LTE牌照，为什么联通电信却无法参与竞争呢？要想回答这个问题，不妨先举一个简单的例子：假如一个人想开车上下班，那么这个人首先要有开车的技术（首先要考取驾照），同时还要买得起车才行（必须要有钱）。毫无疑问，技术和资金两者缺一不可。对于联通来说，虽然其拥有的GSM/WCDMA网络和TD-LTE完全兼容，也有很多手机支持（相当于有驾照），但是联通却缺乏足够的资金用于TD-LTE网络的建设（相当于没钱买车）。而对于电信来说，不仅投入TD-LTE的资金有限（相当于没钱买车），而且其所拥有的CDMA网络无法和TD-LTE兼容，同时支持CDMA和TD-LTE的手机也几乎没有（相当于没有驾照）。正因为缺乏资金加上技术限制，三家运营商虽然都获得了TD-LTE牌照，但是联通电信却无法参与竞争。
在这样的情况下，移动大规模的4G宣传不仅减少了移动用户向联通的流失，同时也成功吸引了大量想要使用4G的电信用户。假如联通电信有FDD牌照，那么他们可以名正言顺的参与4G的竞争，用自己的4G服务留住用户，减少移动4G对自己用户的吸引力。然而在只发TD-LTE牌照的前提下，联通电信由于缺乏资金加之技术限制，对TD-LTE支持十分有限。此消彼长，自然难逃用户数下降的命运。可以说，联通电信用户数下降虽然和许多因素有关，但是最主要的原因正是没有FDD牌照。
第四：联通电信用户数下滑有什么目的？
根据作者的观点，联通电信之所以会出现增长乏力的现象，目的是为了“用这种方式来说服政府发放FDD牌照”。然而根据本文之前的分析，电信由于CDMA网络的限制完全无法参与4G的竞争，已经处于极其被动的局面。而联通虽然可以凭借42M HSPA网络参与竞争，但是由于缺乏资金，竞争的优势也在不断减弱。在移动4G大规模促销宣传的情况下，联通很有可能步电信的后尘，新增用户数大幅下降甚至出现用户数减少的局面。抛开这一客观事实不谈，简单认定联通电信用户数下降是别有用心，这种结论实在令人难以信服。
第五：现在发放FDD牌照到底合适不合适？
根据作者的观点，由于政府发放的TD-LTE牌照并没有得到电信和联通的认可，联通电信只是少量投资加以应付。如果过早发放FDD-LTE牌照，那么之前电信和联通花掉的钱等于白扔，估计会受到很多专家和业内人士的猛烈批评，最终让政府陷入进退两难的境地。
然而根据之前的分析，由于资金和技术的双重限制，联通电信对于TD-LTE的支持力度相对有限。由于我国发放3G牌照远远落后于全球绝大部分国家，因此直到今天，三家运营商3G网络的巨额投资还远没有收回成本。在这一情况下，国家发放4G牌照造成的直接后果是除移动以外的两家运营商缺乏资金进行投入。这是客观因素造成的，并非联通电信不愿意投资。由于只发TD-LTE牌照，通信市场已经出现完全失衡的局面，这显然违背了国家08年电信重组平衡三家运营商的初衷。即使现在立刻发放FDD牌照，由于网络建设的滞后性，联通电信真正能够参与4G竞争也需要至少半年的时间，对竞争的格局也不会产生多大的影响。可以说，现在发放FDD牌照不仅不是过早，而是已经太迟。
总结
现阶段联通、电信新增用户数大幅减少虽说是由许多因素综合决定的，但是最关键的原因就是工信部不发FDD-LTE牌照。正如之前所说，由于缺乏资金加之技术限制，联通电信对TD-LTE的支持十分有限。虽说移动4G覆盖有限，终端和套餐上也有诸多的不足，但是利用资金和宣传的双重优势，移动完全可以通过大幅度的补贴吸引联通电信的用户大规模迁移。在未来很长一段时间内，通信市场将呈现移动完全垄断4G市场的局面。
最后不妨问一句，既然作者认为“由于政府发放的TD-LTE牌照并没有得到电信和联通的认可，联通电信只是少量投资加以应付”。那么既然只是少量投资加以应付，为什么又会出现“如果过早发放FDD-LTE牌照，那么之前电信和联通花掉的钱等于白扔，
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