Go homepage(回首页)
Upload pictures (上传图片)
Write articles (发文字帖)

The author:(作者)qq
published in(发表于) 2014/6/4 9:07:19
Balance of treasure， one night back to liberation，

Balance of treasure, one night back to Po-balance before liberation, financial products, Internet banking-IT information Balance of treasure, one night back to liberation

Every June, banks pay reserves, fiscal effects, such as taxes paid, tense market, Shibor (Shanghai inter-bank interest rates between banks) soared, yields on financial products also rose sharply.

This year into June, financial products yields plummet. In Listing 1, balance Po as an example, its 7th annual yields yesterday to 4.656%, below the Bank's 5-year fixed deposit interest rate, is far below its all-time high yields of 6.763%.

The legal evening post combined Shibor and calculation of balance of precious historical data, Bao June balance of proceeds rates will gradually decline as a whole, close to 4.5% of the month.

Data currently yields than fixed deposit

On June 17, 2013, Po formally launched the balance, the same day its 7th annual yield is 4.338%. 3 days later on June 20, under the influence of market tension, Shibor gains across Shibor has soared more than 500 basis points overnight, an unprecedented 13.44%.

On June 20, 2013, Po 7th annual yields first broke the balance of 5, 5.096%. After 8 days, this data also blazing ahead to 6.084%. On January 2 this year, balance 6.763% Po yields reached an all-time high.

On line a year later, however, yields Super 6% pomp is difficult to reproduce, and yesterday's 7th annual yield for balances treasure 4.656%, had been lower than the current bank interest rates on five-year lump of 4.75% in, 4.25%, just over the three-year fixed deposit interest rate.

Forecast at the end of June all the way down, or to 4.5%

This morning, our data team to balance Po yesterday formally launched the first day yields data, and nearly 5 years of Shibor analyzes historical data estimates. Results show that from today until the end of June, Po yield balance will show a slow downward trend, June 30 is expected to yield to fall to 4.546%, the yield on launch day, a difference of about 0.2%.

Calculation of this newspaper in March this year, has demonstrated overnight and 7th Shibor Po is proportional to the yield trend movements and balances. This calculation shows that both sets of Shibor data in June also showed a declining trend, and the rate of change is very low. In addition, the 14th Shibor predicted values have not risen sharply, remained within 4%.

Balance treasure behind the Monetary Fund to invest primarily in inter-bank deposits and interbank deposits yield is closely linked with the Shibor. June Shibor slowly drops, means balance treasure yields also skyrocketed in June.

Analysis

Funds shortage of loose money hard to reproduce

Press interview this morning, a number of banks and the securities industry understands that June is the appraisal of commercial bank lending in the second quarter point in time deposits, short-term deposits washed stymied scale market. In addition, end of June beginning of July also happens to be the reserve contributions and financial point of liquidity tightening will, to some extent, exacerbated the market's financial constraints.

But these people are of the view that this June is a small probability of shortage of money. A bank insiders said, in previous years, June, banks are required to pay huge deposits in Central Bank reserves, but recently, the State Council reiterated that strengthening "directed reduction" measures, to meet the conditions appropriate to reduce the reserve requirement ratio of banks, while expanding support for small scale micro-enterprise loans and special financial bonds. This will effectively stabilize market expectation of funding.

In addition, the total May then stepped in and repurchase on the open market due to 563 billion yuan of funds, the Central Bank accumulated back to 389 billion yuan, net release of 174 billion dollars in the month. Datong securities analyst Zhang Cheng believes that large puts the capital market to become loose. Banks to boost their lending standards, and also made money overall demand slowed. All told, June cash shortage this year staged the possibility is very small.

Zhang Cheng believes that compared with banking products, current balance advantages of treasure is not obvious, big struggle to shore up its earnings rebound.

赞