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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2014/6/15 9:06:36 Smart phones will be the 12 disruptive technology，
Smart phones will be the 12 disruptive technology-smart phone, Kevin Kelly-IT news Smartphones will be the 12 disruptive technology
The morning of June 14, United States founding editor of Wired magazine, Kevin Kelly, author of the runaway (Kevin · Kelly) coming out in 2014, zheshang Summit Conference and mobile Internet, and up to 1.5 hours of lecture.
Around the "subversion of technology" the subject, KK's speech is mainly composed of three parts, the first part refers to Honda Subversion General, IBM Microsoft Subversion, Subversion Google similar to the Microsoft case, pointed out that the external edge of the subversive power of innovation. Second part KK to out has he by think of edge type innovation by has of common: quality low, and risk high, and profit low, and market small, and not was market confirmed of, KK pointed out that, also is because these common let big company internal appeared edge type innovation became relative hard, which many Subversion sex innovation technology actually most is from external produced of, and in external type of innovation in the, led who is large initially was big company by ignored of emerging venture company. Finally, KK identified who he thinks the future based on mobile Internet, can produce disruptive power of technology, for example, large data and depth of learning, speech, intelligence, monitoring devices, 3D printing, artificial intelligence, P2P, virtual currency, and so on.
Offers plenty of cutting-edge ideas in KK, KK some ideas worth thinking about China, KK, said China's development in the field of mobile Internet will help China's technology in this field reach the world level of height, unique to China's industry background, will help China to become the leader in 3D printing technology.
In the subversion of those following a panoramic scanning technology, KK gives his summary of current patterns of development, and during this period of significant thing, you can see the KK KK tips.
"The future is incredible, must always believe in the impossible, which belongs to the greatest products after 20 years has not been found, so you're not too late. "KK said.
KK:1800 years, sailing was think is a hi-tech, it using free energy wind to sailing, and at of first ship steam ship and small and short and your, unreliable, but it unique of at is can to upstream driving, but after continued improved (relentless improvement), steam ship technology more mature, cost reduced, sailing began downhill, steam ship will sailing extrusion has market; 1946, Detroit has most hi-tech of car, When Japan's Honda electric system mounted on a bicycle, Detroit consider it insignificant, just a toy, by 1963, Cadillac top GM high profits, while Honda created the first Honda car, Detroit failed to recognize, they think this is just a small project. However after continued improved, Honda more advanced, small car than traditional cart of engine more efficient, results, General bankruptcy, Honda constantly profit; another examples, printer just began of printing is by small points composition of, printing industry no considered points matrix, after continued improved, past that heavy of press of points matrix was lines instead of; another examples, IBM of technology at is leading, unmanned can enemy, but appeared has a by students manufacturing out of Altair, this humble of project is Bill · Gates manufactured, IBM has totally ignored him, through continuous improvement, with Microsoft's Windows. IBM was overturned by a software company, rather than computer-manufacturing companies. Hardware and software by IBM and Microsoft, when everything seemed impossible, Google, search engines were belittled by Microsoft, they underestimated the ability to search, Google is now not just a search engine. What about now, what company can subvert Google, Apple, Facebook,Dropbox, and Tencent, Alibaba?
So, disruptive technologies always occurs, but also emerged from marginal place . Its initial innovation, continuous improvement, and meet the minimum customer satisfaction, all of a sudden the market open. At first, these disruptive technologies with these characteristics: low quality high risks, low margins, small markets, has not been confirmed. No one wants to enter. But startups don't have a choice, because they have no money, customers and technologies. Break-through in these marginal areas are startups, that's why startups are easy to subvert our present technology.
Maximize the business has a moderate (maximize fitness): growth, to achieve the most points, peak fitness, and disruptive technologies at the lowest level, very low fitness occurs, it nearly destroyed, bankruptcies and failures, most startups are forced to stay in those sectors. All company are hopes high profit, now is has a site "rugged of landscape", you see Supreme of peaks, and tomorrow will appeared more high of peaks, another field will has update of technology and created appeared: you is do sailing of, suddenly appeared steam ship, you is big car of, suddenly appeared car, you is do traditional printing of, suddenly appeared has digital printing. Here, you have to "lower reaches of differentiation (devolve to different)": after the company peaked, you should cut your field, to the borderline area, and differentiation. Some profitable companies with huge market by attempting to marginalize something it may not accept, because it close to destruction, to big business and successfully produce disruptive technologies is very difficult.
Phone largest Subversion will not come from the phone itself! Subversion must come from outside. Let me tell you something disruptive technologies outside the mobile industry:
I. age of big data : in 2050, the amount will reach million trillion trillion, far beyond our scope, and its expansion is explosive, so, your business data is a business now! New time and scale of numeric operations, we are at the beginning of a new era: data on the client and is just as valuable to your customers, keep data mobility to ensure that it can be shared
II. the cloud : shared resources, cloud computing and cloud storage are network effects: the size data is larger than the two 500-1000 square feet of data together, so creating more social networking and cloud reserves. Cloud data is without limits (as-if-infinity), exponential growth; it costs zero (as-if-zero), continues to drop. So there is a very important figure: 0 and without limits. At present is to integrate the "cloud", the right is no longer restricted, can easily access and right of access (access) than the title (ownership) is better, do not buy things, buy direct access rights.
III. quantitative (quantified-self): technological product can record tracks, life, behavior, health, wearable devices, quantizer, implanted body, anything you can quantify people already use. Health sensors, Apple's smart watch, you can change the drug use. After medical and living to their own health (normal) you will have a basic concept. You can control your own fat, heart rate, you can see signs of illness, so they know what is your normal state. Can also make use of genetic data, creating personalized medicine, especially for you.
IV. ubiquitous tracking : camera everywhere, digital monitor with 6 billion camera phones. Once interesting thing happened when there was a record, put it in the cloud, we were recording and tracking, social networking can automatically search our location, mutual monitoring, we know who's positioning himself, who tracks, this is a two-way interaction.
Five. can wear type equipment : Google glasses and contact lenses tablets, clothes Shang of technology innovation, touch clothes, touch body, detection you of posture, correction sitting,, this class products can help disabled, with has these products, you on can see reality world on of data world, you on can gets these reality things of data, while perception virtual world and real world.
VI. new interface : in the movie minority report, Tom Cruise used his body to link data, use hand gestures to commands, and ' iron man ' also, Downey with a finger touch virtual 3D images. Samsung Galaxy to keep track of your range of vision, where you see it knows everything. Eye-tracking technology, used to analyse the readers focus, automatic adaptation, such as automatic adjustment at the movie screen, analysis of emotions. Of all the things you look at is watching you (Anything that you look at will look back at you). Voice control, IBM is developing a software by voice to tell the phone what real-time translation. Brain machine, to control things through conscious helmet, this technology is not mature enough, these things are not too mainstream, marginalized, rather like a toy. But they are a disruptive technology.
VII. technology of telepresence (telepresence): doctors can virtual imaging and Diagnostics, and Oculus Rift glasses, oculus rift put on his spectacles, 360-degree immersion, in the pharmaceutical, gaming, undersea exploration, space exploration will bring Subversion. Doctors wear Google glass, remote diagnosis. Our life is everywhere in the screen, the buildings, the screen on the plane back, or even bending, the future will have more screens. A person has more than three or four screens, this is an era of multiple screens. E-books, is a traditional flat, but if you can bend the screen, or you can flip like a paperback. There may even be no screen display: displayed on the Windows and windshields. We screen people (people of the screen): it is no longer surrounded by books and texts, but are surrounded by screens.
VIII. the 3D printing 3D very quickly improved, its subversion of manufacturing, manufacturing not only huge machines, there are gadgets. Manufacturing industries were unable to complete the form can be completed. Large industrial products can be printed. 3D printer can even print your own. Hardware, software, physical materials can operate like a software. China will become the leader in 3D printing. It is a disruptive technology to solve manufacturing problems.
IX. artificial intelligence (artificial smartness), I do not have intelligence, because we need to be clever rather than smart. We have a smarter more intelligent systems, like Siri, unmanned aerial vehicles and drones, they are better than human beings can use these machines. It is not a conscious and feeling creatures, but very smart and sensitive machines, you can do two things at once, and savvy than humans. This smart cloud services, you can buy this Smartphone, it gets from the cloud, don't need their own manufacturing. Point is, what do you then do with it? Can be translated, can play games and so on. This will form a network effect, more AI, more intelligent, more intelligent, more convenient.
X. electronic money : value of money as in the past, and now, as a tool for communication: sharing, collaboration, tracking, communication, comment, ID. Bitcoin is an encrypted currencies, lending platform for P2P network can be achieved. E-wallet shows that money is a tool.
11. network security : an opportunity and a threat, for example Facebook's real name, iPhone, fingerprint authentication, network battle between the States, Smartphone malware, etc.
12. raise : it is a way of marketing research, and equity raising, raised by the consumers, companies can come.
Future of mobile phones is like? It is smaller, more intimate, and on clothes, in the body. Next was incredible, must always believe in the impossible, which belongs to the 20 years after the greatest product hasn't been invented. So, you guys it's not too late.
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