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The author:(作者)qqpublished in(发表于) 2014/6/19 4:48:22 House prices adjustment analysis： downward trend has built up
House prices adjustment tint?
Today, the National Bureau of statistics data released in May, home prices in 70 large and medium cities: in May, among the 70 cities, new home prices have dropped in 35 cities, compared with the April figures, turned over several times housing data also show the same trend, May the housing prices dropped on cities is also 35, half more than in April. Then, changes in statistics, mean a wide range of house prices adjustment to really begin? CCTV financial channel hosts famous financial commentators and Shen Zhu Ma Guangyuan, Liu GE common comments.
House prices adjustment to really begin? Is really down, still dive?
Today, statistics released in May residential sales prices in 70 major cities changes, compared to April, in 70 cities, falling prices of newly-built commercial residential city with 35, balanced city 20, Rose City, 15. Price changes per cent, is the highest city of Zhengzhou, 0.3%, most of the decline was in Hangzhou, declined to 1.4%. However, compared with the same month last year, in 70 cities, prices declined only Wenzhou City 1, Rose City, 69.
Whether the real estate market has headed downwards?
In Guangzhou, the same year "national total land King" Guangzhou Asian Games town real estate suddenly slashed the other day, parts of houses priced from 15,000 yuan per square meter fell to less than 10,000 yuan.
In Beijing, last year sold some high, however, is to have developed bad, awkward predicament.
Dong Bin (CNN): I was behind the plot, is located in the southwest of Beijing San Huan Xia Jia Hutong massif, in the last year with conversion floor price of nearly 46,000 yuan per square meter sold. And now we see that nearly a year passed, and starts without any indication of the Massif.
Spent 1.77 billion yuan last year auction a successful property developer Beijing Mao Yuan still lands "sunning", mainly due to Xia Jia Tong, plots for new and second-hand house prices around, the average price has about 340,000 yuan per square meter, initially to block sold nearly 46,000 yuan per square meter, face the embarrassment of a premium higher than existing-home prices.
Previously owned homes so far this year, Beijing, some real estate agents shop business compared with last year when the market is hot, is desolate, homeowners want to cut shots as soon as possible.
Liu GE: adjustment is certain the downward trend has been established
(The financial review of CCTV commentator)
If the March and April we talk about House prices equivalent to football in the second-half when making a judgment, this number should now say was in injury time a goal was scored. That is, unless something very small probability that comeback, the game should have been a foregone conclusion, this means that this downward trend has built up.
Not only is the National Bureau of statistics, look at some of our other civil research institutes, such as the China index Academy, he had a 100 cities in the index, then the index in May, it also fell for the first time in 23 months 0.23% such a figure, including Beijing's chain of less number of the trading room. All this we can see that these figures have been confirmed.
Southwestern University of finance and one of the Chinese investigation of the financial status of the family, there are three digits, I think it is very valuable. That is now urban families, with a number of homes reached 18.6%. The second number, the current home ownership rate reached 87%. Is homeownership, this all developed countries of the world, as well as the developing countries are high. In such a fundamental condition, coupled with the people and the anticipation of change, so the overall real estate market, upward pressures are largely gone.
Ma Guangyuan: Bureau of this data as injury time penalty psychologically overwhelmed
In fact everyone was still judged before, and I am not sure that trend, as both sides play in football is quite intense. Then from April to May, I personally think, whether it is the National Bureau of statistics, we also see a host of other statistics, it should be said that from quantitative change to qualitative leap, basically everyone thinks the trend is basically determined.
Figures from the National Bureau, very interesting, whether it is new or second-hand House fell, fell in the city has reached 35, half. Half is a very interesting data. When combined with balanced, rising number of cities you will find no more than 70%, is close to 80%. This is a gaming lopsided situation, this is the official data. There is also a, and from last year to now, real estate development companies to attract funding, all attracting capital is 12.2 trillion last year, growth was 26.5%, that is, this enthusiasm for the entire real estate last year reached an unprecedented degree of a. But this year's first five months, funds were about 3.7 trillion, but at only 4.5 per cent. 4.5 per cent is in addition to the financial crisis, money growth is the lowest since the real estate market. In other words, we attract funding from this view, the market as a whole has changed. Then we went to several places to go, you see people psychological dynamic, back when we could eat together, everyone keeps asking, says prices are going through the roof, and now the question everybody is asking is how much house prices could fall, next there is room for many.
I think that since May, when the data because this data in 70 major cities, it should be said that this data ever, from April to May, this data should be described as a landmark. I personally think that have completed the process of psychological adjustment of the game to market real, that is, old LAU said just now, injury time penalty, defeated defences.
Zhang Dawei: adjusted homeowners would be accelerated further in the second half to three months
(The Director of centaline property research of the financial review CCTV commentator)
Current market conditions for the first-tier cities, and price is still quite stable this year. Only individual regions, individual projects there are promotions, but the promotions the chain's prices have stopped falling. For housing, but now indeed there has been full fell.
In Beijing, for example, housing prices as of 5 June, compared to the 4 quarters of decline at the end of last year has achieved an average of 10%, this decline is very large. Now housing should be an early indicator, in Beijing, for example, continuation volume months of less than 10,000 units. In us practice, we receive some of the experience, the monthly trading volume of less than 10,000 units, according to the city, its price may be lower. So in this case, it is gradually putting the price adjustment, passed to new housing. We anticipate future market, especially as this year is concerned, this adjustment may also be accelerated in the second half. Many developers are also stepping up sales, including opening, opening speed is faster. In this case, if buyers are willing to purchase, can consider it again for two or three months, in the third quarter, house prices adjustment might gradually spread from housing to new housing.
Ma Guangyuan: the real estate market has entered the winter many developers have to wear a coat for the winter
I believe this is now a lot smaller, known as the real estate market as a whole, the first have entered a period of adjustment, I think basically there is a general consensus. Second is the rate of adjustment range greater than previously thought, including first-tier cities. Because we see the statistics seem to show that, like Guangzhou, Shenzhen previously owned homes also rose, but as far as I know, I should say fall is quite obvious. I have a friend, he has a secondary listing began late last year, hung up to now has been trying to sell, listing price now than in December last year had fallen by 500,000. His house is less than 5 million, down 500,000, still no buyers now, before someone came to see, no one comes to the room now. I think for now, everyone throughout the expectations have changed, the whole market, I feel that if we are in the winter, then, it should be said into a winter, whether it's in first-tier cities, or the second-tier cities.
Of course, this is only short term adjustment, or long-term adjustment, I think the first-tier cities, or may not be the same in other cities. But for now, it was winter, and everyone wants to wear a coat. I feel that it does not mean that your body is not good, you are very sick, but that is outside in the winter, you now have to wear a coat. Developers, many of which are now put on the cotton-padded clothes, how to deal with this winter, how about go out this winter, I am afraid that is the developers should be looking into the matter carefully.
Liu GE: Chinese people in buying a House and buy gold investment demand is similar
This balance may not wishful thinking, it may be partly to do with the development of China's economy as a whole, but also with the international financial situation, are closely related. In the past ten years, China's rising prices. China Gold Corporation Chief Economist Wan 喆 made a table, he found China's gold prices and housing prices are a close positive correlation. Once gold prices have gone up considerably, and shortly after this, property prices, land prices will rise substantially. So now this trend is basically, compare 3:1 relationships.
Of course, it is not necessarily a causal relationship. The next step if there is such a trend, it is hard to say, but from this list we can see that over the years, we bought the House, investment demand and investment demand for gold, it is similar. In other words. Now, everyone is eager to obtain greater benefit by investing in the short term, which is buying a House and buy gold is the same and that is why there was such a case. So there is one basis was expected of China's rapid economic growth and urbanization, now these two premises in the event of a change.
Ma Guangyuan: policy no matter how relaxed it is impossible to go back in time after 2008
It is an iconic, now real estate situation has three. First, the liquidity is very tight and money is very tight this year. Why do we see now in first-tier cities will adjust because money tight. Second, China real estate fundamentals and the biggest difference is that in the past, we are struggling to find which city that houses the severe shortage of extreme shortage has become history. Beijing, Beijing completed a year 200,000 units, population 500,000, meaning that almost everyone should be split up. Third, we now see a lot of town houses has a surplus. We now if China's real estate is divided into three kinds, one-third the absolute excess, one-third the basic balance, inflow of one-third of the future as the population, can also be supported.
Now a lot of people take it for granted that said, as long as the policy of water, as long as the policy saved the real estate, real estate can be, but he did not see a complete change in the fundamentals. There are a lot of people said, how can save real estate? First, policy can save. We must believe that no matter how relaxed the policy, no matter how you water, back in 2008, after that period of time, is highly unlikely, because the real estate selling times. 2nd, it was stated that urbanization there is a great demand in the future, I think don't save China real estate mission added on to the Chinese farmers, farmers in China save China save a lot of time, but he can't save property, and why? Price is too high. But now proclaimed that China's real estate crash, crashes, I have to you is nonsense.
Ma Guangyuan: this adjustment is not to crash but will take in the healthy development of a snag
Not to look at this level, I think this is one of the psychological changes. We have to do now is not to say that you allow it to fall, it is a mathematical concept, the key is certain to lead the right expectations.
I believe real estate this adjustment, is good for the health of the real estate, don't be afraid to adjust. Price adjustment will become the norm, whole real estate we will see in the future, house prices, house prices, it is called a market. So I think the adjustment itself, unlike some people speak Chinese real estate crash, rendering, but during the process of the whole market, his health in the development process, and must be a snag.
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