American think tanks: China's "new normal" will benefit the world
The China daily, March 8 (Lotus) United States published in Brookings Institute website entitled ' cheer up, Wall Street-China says of the growth decline is welcome news, Wall Street and other global markets began on a very bad note the year 2016, mainly because of concerns about China's economic growth is slowing, but so far China's economic news was positive. From investments accounted for a significant proportion of China's growth model towards a more sustainable growth model, which is based, to further focus on the supply side and demand side of innovation spending. This adjustment is gradual. This is welcome news.
Article said that Chinese growth mode to attach too much investment, which promoted the rapid economic growth in the short term, but ultimately resulted in an increased excess capacity. According to a recent investment, capital stock 6-7 year will double, but there's not enough demand to make the investment profitable. Thus, caused the current situation of excess manufacturing capacity.
As a natural response to overcapacity, investment is slowing. This lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth-in 2015, GDP per cent growth in the fourth quarter to 6.8%. But the good news is that spending growth held up well, more 8%, so consumption's share of GDP started to rise.
Said, with GDP growth slowing, China may be able to create enough employment questions were reasonable. One theory is that China's growth must be 8%, in order to create sufficient employment opportunities. But this version there are three problems.
First, GDP growth there is no simple relationship between growth and employment.
Second, China's demographics have changed, the working-age population has peaked and begun to decline.
Third, growth in consumption is mainly to promote the development of service industry and its service industries are more labour-intensive than manufacturing higher.
Although the actual GDP growth was lower than the peak in China has fallen by almost half, but strong growth in employment, the labour market is still in short supply. Income growth has always been maintained at around 8%, so people's lives continued to improve, the poverty rate has continued to decline.
Old growth model on the local and global environment has serious adverse effects. China's pervasive air pollution associated with the industry's important role in the economy. In 2015, the proportion of services in the economy for the first time more than half of this number to continue to rise will help China address its environmental problems.
China's fast-growing investment also brings the metal and energy demand, pushing up the prices of these products, benefiting commodity exporters around the world. As metal prices dropped from their peak of 60%, with exporters facing difficult adjustments (mainly under the influence of new supplies of energy price change, China is not the main reason). In the long run, China turned to the less resource-intensive growth path is, of course, a good thing.
Article said that we wish China and believes that China's continued economic growth is not only beneficial to the Chinese people, is good for the global economy.
Regardless of whether investors around the world have realized that they will end up because the Chinese economy slowing and on a more sustainable, stability and benefits.
(Editors: Pan Yi burn UN657)
2016-03-08 20:00:31
Integrated
美智库：中国经济“新常态”将惠及全球
中国日报网3月8日电（信莲）美国布鲁金斯学会网站日前刊发题为《振作起来，华尔街——中国增速回落是可喜的消息》的文章称，华尔街和全球其他市场以非常糟糕的调子开始了2016年，主要原因是担心中国的经济增速放缓，但迄今为止中国经济消息基本是积极的。中国需要从投资占重要比重的增长模式转向以更加可持续的增长为基础的模式，进一步专注于供给侧的创新和需求侧的消费。这种调整正在逐步进行。这是一个可喜的消息。
文章称，中国原有增长模式过分重视投资，这在短期内推动了经济的迅速增长，但最终导致过剩产能增加。根据最近的投资速度，资本存量6至7年就会翻番，但根本没有足够的需求来使这些投资赢利。因此，造成了目前制造业产能过剩的局面。
作为对产能过剩的自然反应，投资速度正在放慢。这拉低了国内生产总值（GDP）增速——2015年第四季度的GDP同比增速为6.8%。但好消息是，消费的增速保持得不错，实际超过了8%，因此消费在GDP中的份额开始上升。
文章称，随着GDP增速放缓，对中国能否创造足够的就业产生疑问是合理的。原来有一种说法是，中国的增速必须达到8%，才能创造出足够的就业机会。但是这种说法存在三个问题。
首先，GDP增速与就业增长之间不存在简单的关系。
其次，中国的人口状况发生了变化，工作年龄段人口已经达到峰值并开始下降。
第三，消费的增长主要推动的是服务业的发展，而服务业劳动密集程度比制造业更高。
虽然中国GDP实际增速已较峰值下降了近一半，但就业机会的增长强劲，劳动力市场仍供不应求。居民收入的实际增速始终保持在8%左右，所以人们的生活继续改善，贫困率继续下降。
旧的增长模式对当地和全球环境都有严重的不利影响。中国普遍存在的空气污染就与工业在经济中的重要地位有关。2015年，服务业在经济中的占比第一次超过一半，这个数字的继续上升将有助于中国解决其环境问题。
中国增长极快的投资还带来了对金属和能源的大量需求，推高了这些产品的价格，让世界各地的初级产品出口国受益。随着金属价格从最高点下跌60%，其中一些出口国面临艰难的调整（能源价格的变化主要受新增供应的影响，中国不是主要原因）。从长远看，中国转向资源密集程度较低的增长道路当然是好事。
文章称，我们祝福中国，并相信中国持续的经济增长不仅对中国人民有利，也对全球经济有利。
不管世界各地的投资者是否已经意识到，他们最终会因为中国经济逐渐放缓并走上更加可持续的、稳定的道路而获益。
(责任编辑：潘奕燃 UN657)
2016-03-08 20:00:31
综合