Wang mengqiu clean capital: China dried up, most die-VR VR of this generation, innovation, Wang mengqiu-IT news

Editor's Note: "out of the stage instead of cold, this is a big event for women. And once they are full of passion, their bodies become the iron. "Legend has it that this sentence comes from 19th century France by Balzac. In fact, if you use it to describe the business groups in nowadays China, it really is very good. On this a ahead of March 8 goddess, NetEase entrepreneurial Club from today launched "series of reports on women's investors and entrepreneurs", to see their thoughts.

Wang mengqiu said he does not differentiate by gender, only results to heroes. Her resume is simple and attractive: 2002 joined Baidu, Baidu's Vice President of technology to September 2013 leave Baidu joined the clean capital as Managing Director, representative investments include PP rental cars, love fresh bee, Blued,OFashion, beans and fruit nets, 51 credit cards.

"China into has a innovation depletion State", "consumption upgrade actually brings has investment vertical crowd of changes", "because is technology origin, so I special not believes technology", "this generation VR/AR products estimated will died", "not combined application scene of technology on commercial worthless", and so on, in accept interview process in the, Wang mengqiu talked about on now create voted market, clear of logic Xia quite points love and rebellious with of feel. Early project which you can choose, and how to make choices, this is her point of view:

First, China has entered an innovative depletion

In 2015, the voices of China's venture capital market make enough attention. Angel institutions both large and small, from some dimensions can be a positive. People-watching, thinking, and money. Can't stop.

"But we are not in the vote last year to 10 projects", a casually dressed, clean capital venture partner Wang Meng Qiu NetEase Club point. "If we are the same as gambling probability, like pepper-like investment that this thing is not necessarily asking me to do, so many people in the world can do about it" because "it starts from the second half of last year, all of China's venture into an innovative depletion".

More specifically, it says, is not a capital market cools (and early stages of angel investment for each project is relatively small), mainly because few people in front of a bright and long term value of new models. "O2O mode such as last year in several large merger case, plus a lot of dubious O2O company failed, let everyone see (a chuangqi) O2O even on a very large scale, but also the way it was. So this type of model, no matter from which to which o o, as long as the value is small, of little value. ”

If you start it to results-oriented judging, still have to eventually return to the commercial value of this core problem. The transformation of the traditional industries of the Internet lies in upgrading efficiency. Wang mengqiu on the efficiency criteria seems more "harsh": If the efficiency improvement cannot leap from quantitative change to qualitative change, the Internet has no value. So she now thinks the Internet such as the medical industry is not much of value: the core problem is too little quality medical resources in medical industry.

Scenario from the second, without technology to commercial nothing

As the original Baidu's Vice President of product technology, Wang mengqiu said he had seen too many technical problems. Especially if capital or from the business point of view, not to make value judgments of pure technical perspective on technology.

NetEase entrepreneurship Club Combs it as such:

First, a technology to really (in business) play a role, you first need to have a strong need to drive it;

Second, the technology needs to go through a process of quantitative change to qualitative change, might make some of the scene you want need to really become a reality;

Finally, the Internet State, the vast majority of the so-called technology-driven products, actual core is actually spelled scale rather than technology.

"Even the search engines, in fact I think its core competence is the scale, why did it become a single business--in every country of the world is a monopoly business, because once you have the scale, your technique can do better. ”

Wang mengqiu Israel innovation compared to b model in foreign countries and domestic environment: "Israel many start-up companies were in a technical innovation is often a patent for technology to get real, or are particularly extreme, they have recently done a lot of projects for a large company service-service scene is to b, and some simply sold out to big companies. In this matter, Europe and other countries are willing to pay more for technology, but not now. ”

Why is that?

To b first China services market is relatively thin soil, by selling technology to provide service to b high enough profit and make a large enough scale, this matter is very difficult;

Second, from the perspective of enterprise environment in China, if the company has enough strength, you will develop similar technology, there is no need to rely on others if strength is not strong enough business, there are many do not pay attention to this kind of technology, nor does it need.

"When I was in Baidu, and Baidu is not particularly concerned about how a technology is exquisite, it emphasizes your technology is there to solve practical problems. "Wang mengqiu one example, is a classic joke in the technology industry, restore the prototype of the story is this:

Unilever has found one day SOAP line has a flaw: often did not mount the SOAP box. Officials forced an Automation Professor designed a programme to pick an empty soap box. PhD research group took more than 10 people, integrated use of machinery, electronics, automation, x ray detection technology takes a lot of line finally solved the problem. Ocean township enterprises in southern China also bought the same load SOAP line, boss found the problem and find a coolie, coolie spent 90 dollars was placed next to the production line and a powerful fan, empty soap box so easily resolved.

For business, no matter how technology, effective way is the real way. "In fact there are a large number of small and medium enterprises is the idea: he felt very ill, how many problem can be solved; but the other party does not this ' technology ' to pay. “

Wang mengqiu admits that, although last year the item to mode b is very hot, but a clean one no vote. "Don't know, don't understand. We never catch up with air, only we understand, we recognize the 98% thing in the world is that we don't understand, understand 2% thing you can do is very great. “

Three, this generation of VR/AR products is estimated to die

But she does not mean that this field cannot meet the required technical, except that current technology is not sufficient to activate a new market.

In the business world, most of the time on the value of technology initially should carry clear is "just want" concept: the scene is what you want, in this scenario, there is probably don't need technology to achieve superb, "even do 99% do not need", this technology will have a great market.

"I think this generation of VR/AR's death. First of all we are authorized AR will be the next new computing platform, but this matter is not time yet, because the technology is not enough, did not let users as convenient as using iPhone to use this device. ”

As Smartphone popularity lies not with mobile networks, and because of the iOS and Android appear, finally got a phone almost identical to computer functions, make it into the daily scene, any common people can use, this is a real technology revolution driven just need outbreak. Rather than, as before, although the so-called concept of mobile devices, but only very few professionals understand the use. (Original Nokia can be called intelligent machines? Orz)

And the VR/AR degree mature has not reached the iOS with the changes brought about by degrees. Wang mengqiu think that this argument can also tell very simple: "as a user, wearing heavy helmets and glasses to use, it is a totally unacceptable thing. "Even for a movie or game industry, the current value is still limited. Together with industry in a rapidly evolving process, when there is a mature technology came to green technology products will quickly die. (As the iPhone after the impact of Nokia).

For investors, so, what's the hurry? (After all, the iPhone is not a preconceived)

"In fact all hardware related industries who have not advanced to master the technology of bovine x. "The (now many Internet giants and startups are competing)

In addition, the VR/AR want to be a technology platform, you must have an ecological chain, does not simply sell a technology or an application, a device, it needs to have adequate hardware equipment spread out. "IPhone if not sell hundreds of millions of years, who gave it to develop? Android if it is not an open market, who gave it to develop? "But at present there does not seem to be such startups. Wang mengqiu, current VR/AR domestic enterprises, if acquired by Internet giant is considered a very good result.

But she believes similar AR/VR technology will be applied to some scenes you want, even if there may not be a daily scene.

D "we are conservative institutions, because spelling but others"

NetEase entrepreneurship Club: you are steady.

Wang mengqiu: we call themselves conservative. (Laughs)

In the past two years investing in the great leap forward era could still not be tired, clear stream in 2015, has played just 10 items, this is based on what kind of consideration? "Just don't think we fight but others. "Wang mengqiu:" we do not have nearly as many angels to sweep the streets, said the project had come. We do not have the energy, so it is considered in the selection. In fact, most valuations up very fast chuangqi later hold. Business development will hold value, what should I do? ”

So clear do not "catch up". "First, we really don't have the financing to catch up; we even chasing rising stocks, then we can quit is the winner. "For many of the primary market investors, want to sell many of the time cannot be sold or sell poorly. "So, just the way you understand it. “

It is learnt that the clear almost half of the first-stage projects into the Fund before the angel round half a round, now most of them have already on to the next round. Including fresh honey, PP, such as car rental, Blued.

"Generally, the founder and project financing at a time when I will say not to market forecasts premature, because even in this round someone gives you great value, could you hold, but bad for the next round of people coming in. We do not think that such projects raise a large sum of money on a cow, in fact not the case. “

Five, the consumption-boosting investment opportunities

Each Angel institution has its own characteristics and preferences, view of special care, and some attached particular importance to look at people. Play varies.

Wang mengqiu said, clean capital voted in an earlier angel round, but closer to operate selectively to deep research of the VC industry, "want to see very clearly to sell to an industry, point to aim. When an item is encountered, you find that it is very close to what you want, it is easier to talk about if some projects find you, you find that things don't quite understand, that entrepreneurs don't waste people's time. ”

The other side, in terms of entrepreneur resources, clear attitude and other angels to focus on the potential for high quality entrepreneurs. "I think quality Chinese entrepreneurs are not missing, last more than 10 years training a large number of China's Internet ' eating pork ' or ' see pigs running ' man, how together they go in the right direction, another focus of the organization. ”

A clean capital in 2016 will focus on what? Wang mengqiu said several aspects, including the children's market (0-12), men, sport, Internet banking, etc.

1, vertical population consumption upgrade

Particularly with regard to children's consumption and male consumption. Why is that?

A female consumption was around before upgrading the product too much, relatively speaking, the male consumer consumption and there are a lot of children remains to be dug in the area.

Second (and more importantly) this generation (80, after the) do parents of children consuming upgrades. (Note: even proud to even after the 26 years old) their own habits and consumption upgrading will influence their children's consumption. This consumption is a more quality product. In addition, if faced by the previous generations of parents is the lack of resources and information, then this generation of parents living in an environment of information overload, so I need someone to help them make a choice.

So, Wang mengqiu think in children clothing, and children medical (as medical insurance), and children reading (and pan education products), and parent-child activities, direction has larger of venture opportunities, "certainly milk, and diaper this standard products on without do has, has has many people in do; children sea Amoy aspects I think opportunities also is unlikely to, more also is will concern some spirit level of products. ”

2, consumer brand fragmentation

By contrast, over a long period of time in the mature domestic consumer goods brand is simple, such as a field of FMCG, consumers tend to only focus on fixing a few brands of concern, standard product without much distinction and individuality. But this phenomenon is also consumed upgrade dilution. In terms of clothing, gear, more and more consumers begin the pursuit of individual or alternative, combined with consumer in terms of promoting the Internet significantly lower threshold, this gives relatively small or marginal brands more new opportunities.

However, objectively, there is a problem: the single brand size is not large enough. So this can actually understand is the "brands": starting from the cut to the precise population, lead the entire category of similar orientation.

清流资本王梦秋：中国创新枯竭，这一代VR多数会死 - VR,创新,王梦秋 - IT资讯

编者按：“走出舞台而不要感冒，这对女人来说是一件大事。而她们心中一旦充满了热情，她们的身体就变成了钢筋铁骨。”传说这句话出自19世纪法国的巴尔扎克。其实，如果用它来描述当下中国的女性创业群体，那真真也是极好的。值此又一个3月8日女神节即将到来之际，网易创业Club从今天起陆续推出“女性投资人和女性创业者系列报道”，去看看她们的所思所想。

王梦秋说自己不以性别来区分，从来只以结果来论英雄。她简历简单而光鲜：2002年加盟百度，任至百度技术副总裁；2013年9月离职百度加入清流资本任董事总经理，代表投资项目包括PP租车，爱鲜蜂，Blued，OFashion，豆果网，51信用卡等。

“中国进入了一种创新枯竭状态”，“消费升级实际上带来了投资垂直人群的变化”，“因为是技术出身，所以我特别不相信技术”，“这一代VR/AR产品估计会死”，“不结合应用场景的技术对商业一文不值”，等等，在接受专访过程中，王梦秋谈到关于当下创投市场，清晰的逻辑下颇有点爱并叛逆着的感觉。早期项目哪些可以选择，如何做选择，这是她的观点：

一、中国进入了一种创新枯竭状态

2015年，人声鼎沸的中国风投市场赚足了关注度。对于很多大大小小的天使机构，从某种维度上讲算得上是一次利好。看人，思势，投钱。根本停不下来。

“不过我们去年一共投了不到10个项目”，一身休闲打扮的清流资本合伙人王梦秋对网易创业Club开门见山。“如果大家都像赌概率一样，像撒胡椒面似的投资，那这个事情不一定要我干，世界上那么多人都可以做这件事”因为“感觉从去年下半年开始，整个中国的创业进入了一种创新枯竭状态”。

更具体一点说，并不是资本市场变冷（况且早期天使阶段每个项目投资额度相对较小），主要在于很少有让人眼前一亮并且有长远价值的新模式出现。“比如去年几起大的O2O模式企业并购案，加上很多不靠谱O2O公司倒闭，让大家看到（一个创企如果做）O2O即便做到一个非常大的规模，但是也就这么回事了。所以这类模式，不管从哪个O到哪个O，只要增值不大，就没什么价值。”

如果对创业这件事以结果导向作判断，最终仍旧要回归到商业价值这个核心问题上来。互联网对传统行业的改造主要在于效率的提升。王梦秋对效率提升的标准看起来似乎更“苛刻”：如果对效率的改造不能从量变到质变进行一次飞跃，那互联网其实也没有什么价值。所以她目前认为互联网对诸如医疗等行业其实无法产生太大的价值：医疗行业核心问题在于优质医疗资源太少。

二、不结合应用场景的技术对商业一文不值

作为原百度产品技术副总裁，王梦秋称自己过去看到的技术问题太多。尤其如果从资本或商业角度看，不能以纯技术视角对技术做价值高低的判断。

网易创业Club将它梳理为这样几点：

首先，一个技术要真正（在商业领域）发挥作用，首先需要有一个强烈的刚需场景来驱动它；

其次，技术积累需要经历一个由量变到质变的过程，才可能会使某些刚需场景的需要真正变成现实；

最后，互联网状态下，绝大多数所谓技术驱动的产品，实际核心其实是在拼规模而不是技术。

“即便是搜索引擎，其实我也认为它的核心竞争力是规模，为什么它会变成一家独大的生意——在全世界各个国家都是一家独大的生意，是因为有了规模之后，你的技术才可能做得更好。”

王梦秋拿以色列创新概念以及国外to B模式和国内环境做对比：“以色列很多创业公司的技术创新往往确实是在某一项技术上拿到真正的专利，或是做得特别极致，他们近来所做的很多项目最后为大公司服务—就是to B的服务场景，有些干脆直接卖给了大公司。在这个事情上，欧美等国家其实愿意为技术付出更多，但中国现在的情况不行。”

为什么？

首先中国的to B服务市场还是相对比较单薄的一块土壤，想靠出卖技术来提供to B服务获得足够高的盈利和做出足够大的规模，这件事情非常困难；

其次，从中国企业环境看，如果大公司实力足够，类似的技术自己就会开发，没有必要去依靠别人；如果是实力不够强的企业，也有很多并不关注这类技术，也不需要。

“拿以前在百度的时候来说，其实百度并不是特别关注一项技术到底有多么精妙，它更强调你的技术到底有没有解决实际问题。”王梦秋举了一个例子，是技术行业里经典笑话，还原故事的原型是这样的：

某天联合利华发现装香皂的生产线有个缺陷：经常有盒子里没有装入香皂。相关负责人不得已请了一位自动化博士设计了一个方案来拣空香皂盒。博士拉起十几人的科研小组，综合采用了机械、微电子、自动化、X射线探测等技术，花费一大笔线终于成功解决了问题。大洋彼岸中国南方有个乡镇企业也买了同样的装香皂生产线，老板发现问题后找了一个小工，小工花了90块钱在生产线旁边置了一台大功率电风扇，空皂盒就这样轻松解决。

对于商业来说，无论技术如何，有效的方法才是真正的好方法。“事实上国内有大量中小企业也是这样的想法：他觉得自己的技术非常厉害，能解决多少多少问题；但其实另一方并不会为这种‘技术’买单。“

所以王梦秋坦言，虽然去年国内to B模式的项目很热，但是清流一家都没投。”不懂，看不懂。我们从来不追风口，只看我们看得懂的方向，我们承认这个世界上有98%的事情是我们看不懂的，把自己能看懂的2%的事做好已经很了不起了。“

三、这一代VR/AR产品估计会死

但她并不是指这一领域无法产生符合刚需的技术，只是觉得以目前的技术水平还不足以激活一个新刚需市场。

在商业领域，很多时候谈技术的价值最初应该拎清的是”刚需场景”概念：刚需场景是什么，在这个需求场景下，有可能根本就不需要技术达到多么精湛，“甚至连做到99%都不需要”，这个技术就可以有极大市场。

“我觉得这一代VR/AR得死。首先我们非常认可AR会是下一个新的计算平台，但这件事情还没有到时机，因为技术并不够，没有让用户像使用苹果手机那么方便使用这种设备。”

正如智能手机的普及并不在于有了移动网络，而因为有了iOS和Android的出现，终于让一台手机有了几乎等同于电脑的功能，使它代入日常场景，任何贩夫走卒都可以使用，这才是真正的技术带来的大变革带动刚需爆发。而不是像在此之前，虽然有所谓移动设备的概念，但只有相当少专业人士了解使用。（当初的诺基亚可以称智能机吗？Orz）

而当下的VR/AR成熟成度还没有达到当初iOS出现带来的变革程度。王梦秋觉得这个道理也可以讲述得非常简单：“作为一个用户，戴着这么沉重的头盔和眼镜去使用，是一件完全无法接受的事情。”即便用于电影或游戏行业，目前增值仍然有限。加上行业在迅速演变过程中，当有成熟技术出现之后，青涩技术的产品会迅速死去。（正如iPhone出现之后对于诺基亚的冲击）。

所以对于投资人来说，急什么呢？（毕竟iphone也不是先入为主）

“事实上所有跟硬件相关的行业都不是先进入者先掌握牛X的技术。”（当下诸多互联网巨头和创业公司都在角逐）

此外，VR/AR想成为技术平台，必须有一条生态链，不只是单纯只卖某项技术或某个应用、某个设备，这就需要有足够的硬件设备铺出去。“iPhone如果不是一年卖出数亿台，谁给它开发？安卓如果不是一个开放市场，谁给它开发？”但是目前国内似乎还没有存在这样能力的创业公司。所以王梦秋觉得，对于当下国内VR/AR企业来说，如果能被互联网巨头收购已经算是很好的一个结果。

但她也相信类似AR/VR的技术未来一定会应用于某些刚需场景，即便有可能不是日常场景。

四、“我们是保守型机构，因为拼不过人家呀”

网易创业Club：你们属于稳健型。

王梦秋：我们叫自己保守型。（笑）

在过去两年投资大跃进时代仍能不急不躁，清流在2015年只投了10个项目，这是基于怎样的一种考虑？“就是觉得我们拼不过人家呀。”王梦秋笑：“我们没有像很多天使那样几乎扫街一样，说有项目的都来吧。我们没有这个精力，所以还是考虑优中选优。事实上，当时大多估值涨得飞快的创企后来也撑不住了。如果业务发展撑不住估值，怎么办？”

所以清流不”追涨“。”首先我们真的没有那么多融资追涨；其次我们觉得哪怕追涨，最后真正能退出的才是赢家。“对于一级市场的很多投资者，想卖掉的很多时候是不能卖或卖不好的。”所以，就只做自己看得懂的吧。“

据悉，清流一期基金之前所投的项目几乎一半天使轮一半A轮，目前其中大部分已经融到下一轮次。包括爱鲜蜂、PP租车、Blued等。

”大体上，这些项目在每次融资时我都会和创始人讲，不要对市场预期过早，因为哪怕在这一轮有人给你非常棒的估值，有可能你也撑不住，反而不利于下一轮人家的进来。我们并不觉得某某项目融到一笔特别大的资金就很牛，事实上不是这样的。“

五、消费升级带来的投资机会

每家天使机构都有自己的特点与偏好，有的特别在意观势，有的尤其重视看人。打法各不相同。

王梦秋透露，一边，清流资本虽然投的是早期天使轮，但操作起来更接近有选择性地对行业进行深度研究的VC方式，“希望把一个行业看得非常清楚透彻再出手，定点瞄准。这样当遇到某个项目时，你发现那是非常接近你想要的东西，大家就比较容易谈；如果有些项目找到你，你发现这个东西不大懂，那就不要浪费人家创业者的时间了。”

另一边，在创业者资源方面，清流的态度与其他天使一样注重潜在的优质创业者。“我觉得中国优质的创业者还是不缺的，中国互联网过去十几年里培养了大批‘吃过猪肉’也‘见过猪跑’的人，怎么把他们往对的方向集合起来，另一个关注重点。”

清流资本在2016年将重点关注什么？王梦秋说几大方面，包括儿童市场（0-12岁）、男性市场、体育、互联网金融等。

1，垂直人群消费升级

尤其在儿童消费和男性消费方面。为什么？

一是之前围绕女性消费升级所做的产品太多，相对而言，儿童消费和男性消费还有很多领域尚待开掘。

二是（更重要一点）这一代（80、90后）儿童的父母在做消费升级。（注：连傲娇的连90后都到26岁了）他们本身的生活习惯和消费升级观念会影响到他们对孩子的消费。这种消费是倾向更有品质的产品。另外，如果说上一代父母更多面临的是资源和信息缺乏，那么这一代父母则生活在一个信息过载的环境里，所以需要有人来帮助他们做选择。

所以，王梦秋觉得在儿童服装、儿童医疗（如医疗保险）、儿童读本（以及泛教育产品）、亲子活动等方向有较大的创业机会，“当然奶粉、尿布这种标品就不用做了，已经有不少人在做；儿童海淘方面我认为机会也不大，更多还是会关注一些精神层面的产品。”

2，消费品牌碎片化

相对而言，过去很长一段时间里国内成熟消费品的品牌较单调，比如想到某个领域快消品，消费者注意力往往容易仅集中在对固定几个品牌的关注上，标配产品相对没有太多的区分与个性。不过这种现象也正在被消费升级稀释。在服饰、用具方面，越来越多消费人群开始追求个性或另类，加上互联网使消费品在推广方面极大降低门槛，这就给一些相对小众或边缘品牌带来了更多新生机会。

但是，客观上也存在这样一个问题：单一品牌规模并不够大。所以这个意义实际上可以理解是指“品牌集团”：从切入精准人群入手，带动整个相似定位的品类。