Foreign Media: China's success in breaking the "shorting China" fallacy
Reference news, March 9 United Kingdom published in the financial times website on March 7, the bears began to feel isolated in China article, author of zhennifu·xiusi.
Article said that bearish on China is not easy, at least for this month is. Data, market trends, events and even added together, so that a month ago looked fairly simple things complicated.
Today, the "shorted China" avoided the most difficult part of the reason-the ever-increasing capital outflow has slowed sharply, thereby increasing the difficulty of forecasting. Bearish on China might laugh, but they should be careful.
Last month, China's foreign exchange reserves fell by $ 28.6 billion, well below the nearly $ 100 billion per month in the past months of decline. Played a role in the Lunar New Year holiday in February, but market trends also show that China succeeded in diluting the strong January of "shorting China" view. In the past four weeks, offshore Yuan/dollar exchange rate-is considered to be an indicator of international sentiment--compared with the tightly controlled the onshore rate, than at any time since August last year accidents since the devaluation of the Yuan is strong.
Article said that reason for shorting the Yuan is China's liquidity reserves were drying up and liquidity reserves was China's response to the confirmed, growing capital outflows. These two points have been weakened during the weekend.
In order to quell the doubts, report of the people's Bank of China said its foreign exchange reserves are actually meet liquidity standards. This approach could work, might also fail.
But few observers have ignored the research report released this week by the Bank for international settlements, the report said, capital outflows in the third quarter last year mainly due to the company to repay dollar debts and offshore deposits, rather than because people panicked and rushed to get money to foreign countries.
Article said that selling empty renminbi is only one way of expressing negative views on China, but since the people's Bank of China since January, intervention, increase transaction costs, this is not the most popular way. If hedge funds selling the Australian dollar or won (as they always do), China is unlikely to make a difference. But if China's reserves as it had said strong liquidity and speed are not up to the level of brain drain, then put to think China will have to be more cautious about their rationale.
Shorting China would become one of the few major trends this year, but now requires careful observation.
According to the United States the New York Times, March 7, almost no economic data as well as China's foreign exchange reserves, at recent international financial markets rapidly from obscurity to become focus of attention.
Reported that China's foreign exchange reserves is widely regarded as the best barometer of embodies China on the road to avoid a devaluation of the national currency last.
Recently, monthly changes in China's foreign exchange reserves mainly reflected China's businesses and families because of fears of domestic economic growth slowdown and massive anti-corruption investigation to the scale of the transfer of capital abroad. In the past 5 weeks, the Chinese Government has taken action to curb capital outflows, officials pledged nearly every day the Renminbi will not be devalued, and related departments are also more strictly enforced system of remittances to overseas.
Later in the 7th, news that China's policy began to bear fruit: per month, compared with $ 100 billion foreign exchange reserves a few months before, narrowed sharply in February, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by. China's foreign exchange reserves in February decreased $ 28.6 billion, to $ 3.202 trillion.
Reportedly, most economists predict that China's foreign exchange reserves will be even greater decline, such as Barclays Bank earlier expected China's foreign exchange reserves will be reduced by $ 70 billion.
Kay voted in zhulian·aiwensi of experts on China's economy at the international macro-economic consulting-Pritchard said 7th published by China's foreign exchange reserves fell "is an encouraging sign, as many pessimists worry that capital outflow will continue to accelerate, February an outflow of capital slowing fact gratifying."
Yi gang, a Vice Governor of the people's Bank of China earlier 7th CPPCC sessions outside the venue in an interview, dismissed concerns about Yuan. He said that cross-border capital flows in a normal range.
Yi also said that turmoil in global financial markets, the renminbi is actually one of the most stable currencies. He said that volatility in the exchange rate of RMB is very small, the fluctuation of the Yuan against the dollar and against a basket of currencies fluctuations, worldwide is the smallest.
(Editors: Liu Cheng UN649)
2016-03-09 14:36:26
Reference news
外媒：中国成功打破“卖空中国”谬论
参考消息网3月9日报道 英国《金融时报》网站3月7日刊登《看跌中国者开始感到孤立》一文，作者为珍妮弗·休斯。
文章称，看跌中国不容易，至少本月是这样。数据、事件甚至市场动向加在一起，使一个月前看起来相当简单的事情复杂化。
今天，“卖空中国”理由中最难回避的部分——不断增加的资本外流也大幅减缓，从而提高了预测的难度。看跌中国者也许会一笑了之，但他们应该谨慎行事。
中国上个月的外汇储备下降了286亿美元，远低于过去几个月每月近1000亿美元的下降速度。2月中的春节假期起了一定作用，但市场动向也表明，中国成功地冲淡了1月强有力的“卖空中国”观点。过去四周里，离岸人民币对美元汇率——被认为是国际情绪的一个指标——与受到严密控制的在岸汇率相比，比自去年8月人民币意外贬值以来的任何时候都要强势。
文章称，做空人民币的理由是中国的流动性储备正在枯竭，而流动性储备是中国应对可确认的、不断加剧的资本外流的方式。这两点在周末都受到了削弱。
为了平息怀疑，中国人民银行称其报告的外汇储备实际上是符合流动性标准的。它的这一做法可能成功，也可能失败。
但很少有观察人士能对本周国际清算银行公布的研究报告置之不理，该报告称，去年第三季度的资本外流主要缘于企业偿还美元债务和离岸存款减少，而不是由于中国人因恐慌而争相把资金转移到国外。
文章称，卖空人民币只是对中国表达消极看法的方式之一，但自从中国央行1月大力干预、大幅提高交易成本以来，这已经不是最受欢迎的方式。如果对冲基金卖出澳元或韩元（正如他们一直在做的），中国不大可能有所作为。但是如果中国的储备像它所说的那样流动性强，且外流速度达不到此前的水平，那么看跌中国者就必须更谨慎地思考他们的基本理由。
卖空中国本来会成为今年不多的重大趋势之一，但现在需要仔细观察。
另据美国《纽约时报》网站3月7日报道，几乎没有哪个经济数据像中国的外汇储备一样，在最近的国际金融市场上迅速从默默无闻变为外界关注的焦点。
报道称，中国的外汇储备被广泛视为最好的晴雨表，可以体现中国能在避免本国货币贬值的道路上坚持多久。
近来，中国外汇储备的月度变化主要反映了中国企业和家庭由于担心国内经济增长放缓及大规模反腐调查而向境外转移资本的规模。过去5周里，中国政府已积极采取行动遏制资本外流，官员们几乎天天在誓言人民币不会贬值，同时相关部门也在更严格地执行监管向海外汇款的制度。
7日晚些时候，有消息称中国的政策开始见效：与之前几个月外汇储备每月减少1000亿美元相比，2月中国外汇储备降幅已大幅收窄。中国外汇储备在2月减少了286亿美元，至3.202万亿美元。
报道称，大多数经济学家曾预测中国外汇储备将出现更大降幅，比如巴克莱银行早前预计中国外汇储备将减少700亿美元。
凯投国际宏观经济咨询公司的中国经济问题专家朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德说，7日公布的中国外汇储备降幅“是一个令人鼓舞的信号，因为很多持悲观态度的人担心资本外流会继续加速，2月资本外流有所减缓的事实令人感到欣慰”。
中国央行副行长易纲7日早些时候在两会会场外接受采访时，打消了外界对人民币的担忧。他说，跨境资本流动还在一个正常范围。
易纲还表示，在全球金融市场动荡时，人民币实际上是最稳定的货币之一。他说，人民币汇率的波动性是非常小的，人民币对美元的波动和对一篮子货币的波动，从全世界来看都是最小。
(责任编辑：刘盛钱 UN649)
2016-03-09 14:36:26
参考消息