Long coal wage woes: Governments and businesses depend on each other to form bottomless pit of zombies | longmei | State-owned enterprises _ news

"We know the vast spaces of the Earth to the stars, but in the ground between the skulls were lost. "-Wislawa Szymborska

Public hot spots come and go, people's attention to a news event is often more than a week. But as time goes by, the dust has settled, there must be some reason needs to think and remember.

Lessons learned from the so-called forgotten about is the truth.

So, today we want from longjiang talking about a larger topic: capacity. Knight Island, both looking back is to look at the present, it is managers at all levels should seriously think about the profound lesson.

　　Excess

As we all know, in this year's central economic work Conference, capacity is listed as supply side reform's top priority this year.

There used to be a joke saying: steel output to be ranked in the world, is China's first name (not including the Hebei), and the second name is Hebei, China (not including the Tangshan), is the third Tangshan (excluding hidden production), then there is Japan and the United States, and India, and Russia and so on.

Remove teases that, it is to some extent out of reality. In 2013, China's steel output reached 780 million tons, accounting for 50% per cent of world production, second-place Japan 110 million tons, the United States, 87 million tons. When production of Tangshan, is 80 million tons.

And like iron and steel, includes part of main industrial products, such as coal production capacity in China is close to or more than half of the global total, overcapacity, occupies a lot of social resources, social resources reduce the overall efficiency. Capacity on the long list, and nonferrous metals, cement, glass, paper and other industries. The future, only steel capacity 1-1.500 million tonnes (more than 1 Japan), withdrew 500 million tons of coal.

The huge task.

　　State-owned enterprises

To capacity, are to a large extent a question of reforming State-owned enterprises.

Because the private enterprises, State-owned enterprises are often large, heavy burdens, turns and slow. While, excess capacity of State-owned enterprises personnel bloated, this is from Dragon coal on can see: as Lu hao said, Dragon coal group in workers reduced 30,000 people of situation Xia, million tons coal labor number still is 48 people, is national mining million tons labor number of three times times above, is adjacent provinces million tons labor number of twice times around; on the, due to history formed of structure problem, these enterprise and most is place of pillar industry, is place revenue and tax income of main source.

Founder securities research report cites two examples-

A traditional industrial city, steel, energy, equipment manufacturing, chemical and building material of the five pillar industries accounted for 70% of the total GDP, relatively large share of the steel industry, plays an important supporting role in economic development, there are three large State-owned iron and steel group, current operating rates, but have no profits, or even losses. In addition to the poor economic situation, especially the real estate industry to shrink causing mass reduction of the weight of steel outside, and low product variety, structure is not a valid reason, that is, the main products such as Rebar and coil steel construction steel, unable to meet the demand for steel for industrial use;

Another large State-owned coal group, by the end of last year, the Group company has registered 73,000 employees, retired employees of 96,000 people. Company should accounts receivable paragraph has is normal level of 2-3 times, financial institutions loan interest rate floating has 5%; Group also to bear 159 a life community of four for a industry, years subsidies costs highest up 1.5 billion yuan, has compression to 8.9 billion yuan; while, group tax burden heavy, 27 a tax project of years payment total lines 3.1 billion yuan, average tax burden 30% around, is industrial industry average level of 2-3 times.

Examples like this may occur in many traditional industries as pillar industries, and is a pillar of the local State-owned enterprises. In these cities or provinces, even if the entire value chain of the enterprise's industry losses, but still contribute a tremendous amount of tax, and once it starts to capacity, the Government placed facing the predicament of the unemployed, once the disposal well might lead to social stability.

Man yin Weimin, Minister of Social Affairs recently said that, in the process of dissolving excess capacity, is expected to have 1.3 million coal workers and 500,000 steel workers were laid off. Although in contrast to the century for 30 million workers laid off by number of persons in State-owned enterprise reform, the number may be less than one-tenth, but the subsequent reactions of how to dispose of the work, it is each of the problems faced by policy makers will need to carefully.

　　Closed-loop

What formed today's situation? Occasionally, there are inevitable.

From casual, take the train for China's rapid economic development, coal, real estate and other industries belong to their "golden decade", had these problems. Standing on the air, when commodity prices rise, lying to make money, at the waves caused by short-term interest-driven project is logical.

From the inevitable, "resource dependence", "institutional dependence", even relying on the same rules. When the inertia, and becomes cumbersome, tough action.

If the tax, financial and social stability is the local government in resolving power hiccups in excess capacity and, in turn, financial woes will lead an objective obstacle. For example, Heilongjiang province-wide financial is 30 billion, with long coal wages a year to 10 billion once the capital chain rupture occurs, the province is trying to rescue failed. This creates a typical paradox and difficult position of the closed-loop: these enterprises are required by the Government to maintain fiscal and enterprise to pay tax, must also rely on Government subsidies and bank loans to survive. The Government and "zombie companies" depend on each other, like a bottomless pit, also contributes to a lingering "problems left over from history."

Deeper crisis is that, under this cycle, the local society may lose. Island's uncle's home is a traditional industrial city, large enterprises, in addition to the resources of State-owned enterprises and banks and other financial institutions, is a large shopping mall retail, leisure and entertainment, and represents the era of sophisticated, new technology is fully insulated. The lack of market, on the one hand made high quality talent exodus (either because the home did not fit for the job, either by relationship), but also led the Government to block, officials thought the traditional rigid.

In 21st century, the most important thing really is a talent. Market economy requires talent, governance also need real talent.

　　Difference

East West rain, some happy, some sad. As to capacity, inventory, to leverage when it became a problem in some areas, other places ahead of layouts, or for anticipation is already traveling light.

For example, in the eastern coastal provinces and cities inhabited mainly by export-oriented economy, restructuring has hit the road. In Chongqing, a decade ago and ten years of essentially flat steel production, so there's basically no problems of overcapacity, while for the electronics, automotive, high tech, Yu early layouts of the new Europe, also in the area, the Yangtze River economic belt, double intersection of today, the opportunities of the national strategy.

"Without trial, punishment are false, then Zhi Shu to ponder."

You can certainly say that this is "an afterthought". In the river of history, people, after all, it's hard to see the direction of water flow, it is difficult to tell where is the corner where is whirlpool.

In this sense, today production capacity, inventory, problems and painful deleveraging, a lesson for managers at all levels, that is, "short and planning", "now is a long-term" problem. After all, not everything looks forward to "legacy".

More profound lesson is that in the face of this problem, many people will fail, and how many people will answer a high score. And this time, it can no longer be ad hoc and piecemeal basis.

For example, exactly how to define whether or not a business is "zombie companies"? Its long-term losses, because of fluctuations in prices are caused the debt crisis, also because of its own technical, management and personnel, do not cross the border to be eliminated? Because it is produced by thin low profit product on people's livelihood, or because their production is not in line with the market demand for the product? Is the problem of the enterprise itself, or the industry's problems, or simply a matter of regional industrial structure? Different answers, needs a different solution.

For example, the placement of the workers laid off in the process? Is a one-time buyout or ignored after placement, is to create training and employment opportunities to enable it transfer? For example, how to deal with this process may appear in the merger, acquisition, reorganization, bankruptcy, loss of State-owned assets will not once again, a handful of revelry and feasting?

　　Choose

Scholar Pan Yi pointed out that the two different types of responses.

First species is "national doctrine" or college Marxist sent, that in insisted State-owned business of premise Xia, reference modern capitalism economic of operation experience, advocates enterprise reform should implemented property ownership and right phase separation, established modern enterprise system, that take capitalism of management mode to improve production efficiency, further down production cost, strengthening market competitiveness, while reduced workers on welfare of burden; which to socialist market for flag, advocates strengthened national on State-owned assets of absolute ownership, and Right of ownership and management.

Second is free-market doctrine, that major State-owned enterprises, unclear property rights, thus breeding corruption and monopolies of resources, production inefficiencies, costs have risen sharply losing market competitiveness of enterprises; believes that clarifying the State-owned assets, giving way to the market, let individuals gradually split monopolized resources, independent management will be able to stimulate the technology, improve production efficiency.

Problem is the two programmes, the latter may in emphasizing the country caused the irrational allocation of resources to form polarization and corruption cannot protect the interests of employees; the latter may transfer property right and social resources to capital. Their common problems, is the general disregard of the interests of workers.

One policy and public transport change, policy choices is often difficult.

But opportunity and the window period, often time waits for no one.

Editor: Sue cure SN226

Article keywords:
Long coal State-owned enterprises

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龙煤欠薪困局:政府和僵尸企业互相依赖成无底洞|龙煤|国企_新闻资讯

　　“我们通晓地球到星辰的广袤空间，却在地面到头骨之间迷失了方向。”——辛波斯卡

　　舆论的热点此起彼伏，人们对一个新闻事件的关注度往往也超不过一周时间。但当时间流逝、尘埃落定，总有些道理需要人们去思考和铭记。

　　所谓前事不忘，后事之师，大约就是这个道理。

　　所以，我们今天想从龙江聊到一个更大的话题：去产能。在侠客岛看来，无论是回望历史还是注视当下，这都是各级管理者应当认真思考的深刻一课。

　　过剩

　　大家知道，在今年的中央经济工作会议上，去产能被列为今年供给侧改革的首要任务。

　　曾经有一个段子这么说：全世界钢产量要做排名的话，第一名是中国（不包括河北），第二名是中国河北（不包括唐山），第三名是唐山（不包括瞒报产量），之后则是日本、美国、印度、俄罗斯等。

　　除去调侃的意味，倒是一定程度上说出了现实。2013年，中国钢铁产量达到7.8亿吨，占世界总产量50%以上，第二名的日本1.1亿吨，美国8700万吨。当年唐山的产量，则是8000万吨。

　　和钢铁一样，中国包括煤炭等部分主要工业产品的产能已经接近或者超过全球总量的一半，产能严重过剩，占据大量的社会资源，造成社会资源整体利用效率降低。而 在去产能的长长名单上，还有有色、水泥、玻璃、造纸等行业。未来，仅钢铁就要去产能1-1.5亿吨（超过1个日本），煤炭则退出5亿吨。

　　无比庞大的任务。

　　国企

　　去产能，很大程度上来说是一个国企改革的问题。

　　因为相对于民营企业，国企往往体量较大，包袱沉重，转身又慢。一方面，过剩产能的国企人员臃肿，这一点从龙煤就能看出：如陆昊所言，龙煤集团在职工减少3万 人的情况下，万吨产煤用工人数仍然是48人，是全国采煤万吨用工数的三倍以上，是相邻省份万吨用工数的两倍左右；另一方面，由于历史形成的结构问题，这些 企业又大多是地方的支柱产业，是地方财政收入和税收收入的主要来源。

　　方正证券的研究报告举了两个例子——

　　某传统工业城市，钢铁、能源、装备制造、化工、建材五大支柱产业占总GDP的70%，钢铁产业份额比较大，对经济发展起到了重要支撑作用，共有三家较大的国 有钢铁集团，目前开工率尚可，但基本已经没有利润，有的甚至亏损。除了经济形势不佳尤其是房地产行业的萎缩导致用钢量的大规模减少原因外，还有产品品种 低、结构不合理的原因，即目前的主要产品以螺纹钢和盘条钢等建筑用钢为主，无法满足工业用钢需求；

　　另一个大型国有煤炭集团，到去年底，该集团某公司共有在册员工7.3万人，离退员工9.6万人。公司应收账款已经是正常水平的2-3倍，金融机构贷款利率上 浮了5个百分点；集团还要承担159个生活小区的四供一业，年补贴费用最高达15亿元，已压缩至8－9亿元；同时，集团税费负担沉重，27个税费项目的年 缴费总额度31亿元，平均税费负担30%左右，是工业行业平均水平的2－3倍。

　　类似的例子，可能出现在很多以传统工业为支柱产业、同时国企是支柱的地方。在这些城市或省份，即使这些企业所处的行业全产业链亏损，但依然贡献着巨大的税收，同时一旦开始去产能，政府则面临安置下岗职工的困局，一旦处置不好就可能引发社会稳定问题。

　　人社部部长尹蔚民最近就表态说，在化解过剩产能的过程中，预计将有130万煤炭系统职工和50万钢铁系统职工下岗。虽然相对于上世纪的国企改革大潮中 3000万人的下岗数量来说，这个数字可能十分之一都不到，但如何处置这项工作带来的后续反应，则是每一个决策者都必须审慎面对的问题。

　　闭环

　　到底是什么形成了今天的局面？有偶然，也有必然。

　　从偶然来说，搭乘中国经济高速发展的列车，煤炭、地产等行业分别属于各自的“黄金十年”的到来，掩盖了这些问题。站在风口上，当这些大宗商品价格上扬，躺着都能赚钱时，短期的利益驱动导致的排浪式上项目就是符合逻辑的。

　　从必然来讲，“资源依赖”、“体制依赖”，则也是靠山吃山靠水吃水的不变法则。当惯性形成，转身就变成尾大不掉的艰难动作。

　　如果说税收、财政、社会稳定是地方政府在化解过剩产能方面的动力阻碍的话，反过来说，财力的困境也会导致客观的阻碍。比如，黑龙江全省的财力不过300亿， 而龙煤的工资一年就要100亿；一旦发生资金链的断裂，省里就是想救也有心无力。这就形成了一个典型的悖论和困境闭环：政府需要这些企业来维持财税，而企 业要上缴财税，也必须依赖政府补贴和银行贷款生存下去。政府和“僵尸企业”的互相依赖，仿佛是一个无底洞，也就形成了久拖不决的“历史遗留问题”。

　　更深层次的危机在于，在这种循环之下，局部的社会活力可能会失去。岛叔的家乡就是这样一座传统工业城市，其大型的企业，除了资源性的国企和银行等金融机构之 外，就是大型商场零售、以及休闲娱乐等，几乎与代表时代方向的高精尖、新科技完全绝缘。市场化主体的缺失，一方面使得高质量人才大量外流（因为家乡要么没 有适合的工作，要么凭关系），另一方面也导致政府思路的闭塞、官员思维的传统甚至僵化。

　　21世纪，最重要的真的是人才。市场经济需要人才，政府管理也需要真正的人才。

　　差异

　　东边日出西边雨，几家欢乐几家愁。当去产能、去库存、去杠杆成为一些地方的难题之时，另一些地方则由于提前布局、或者是对于形势的预判而早已轻装上阵。

　　比如，在东部沿海以外向型经济为主的省市，结构转型早已上路。而在重庆，十年前和十年后的钢铁煤炭产量基本持平，所以也基本没有产能过剩的问题；而对于电子、汽车、高科技、渝新欧的提早布局，也让其在一带一路、长江经济带、双创成为国家战略的今天成为了机遇的交汇点。

　　“不审时则宽严皆误，后来治蜀要深思”。

　　你当然可以说这是“马后炮”。处于历史的河流之中，人们毕竟很难看清水流的走向，也很难判断哪里是拐弯哪里是漩涡。

　　从这个意义上说，今天去产能、去库存、去杠杆的难题和阵痛，的确给各级管理者上了一课，那就是“重短期还是重规划”、“谋眼下还是谋长远”的选择问题。毕竟，总不能事事都期待“留给后人解决”。

　　更深刻的一课是，在这道题面前，有多少人会不及格，又有多少人会答高分。而这一次，一定不能再头痛医头、脚痛医脚。

　　比如，究竟该怎样界定一个企业是否是“僵尸企业”？它的长期亏损，是因为形势波动带来的价格下跌引发债务危机，还是因为其本身的技术、管理、人员等不过关要 被淘汰？是因为它生产的是利润薄低的民生产品，还是因为其生产的是已经不符合市场需求的产品？是企业本身的问题，还是行业的问题，抑或是地区产业结构的问 题？不同的答案，需要的是不同的解决方案。

　　又比如，应该如何安置在这一过程中下岗的职工？是一次性买断或者安置之后置之不理，还是创造培训和再就业的机会使之产业转移？在比如，该如何应对这一过程中可能出现的兼并、收购、重组、破产事宜，使国有资产不至于再一次流失、成为少数人的狂欢和盛宴？

　　选择

　　学者潘毅指出了两种不同的应对方案。

　　第一种是“国家主义”或学院马克思主义派，即在坚持国有制的前提下，借鉴现代资本主义经济的运作经验，主张企业改革应实行财产所有权与经营权相分离，建立现 代化企业制度，即采取资本主义的管理模式来提高生产效率，进一步压低生产成本，加强市场竞争力，同时减少工人对福利的负担；后者以社会主义市场经济为旗 帜，主张强化国家对国有资产的绝对所有权、支配权和管理权。

　　第二种则是自由市场主义，认为国企的主要问题是产权不清晰，因而滋生贪污腐败和资源垄断，使得生产低效、成本激增，企业失去市场竞争力；认为只要厘清国有资产，逐步让位给市场，让有能力的个人逐步分割垄断资源，独立管理就能激发技术改革，提高生产效率。

　　两种方案各自的问题在于，前者可能在强调国家的同时造成资源的不合理配置，形成两极分化和贪腐，无法保障职工的利益；后者可能将产权和社会资源转移至资本方。其共同问题，则在于对普通劳动者权益的忽视。

　　一策生而众运改，政策选择往往就是这样的困难。

　　但机遇期和窗口期，往往也时不我待。

责任编辑：苏未然 SN226

文章关键词：
龙煤 国企

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