Shanghai resident population growth for the first time why these 150,000 people fleeing | an aging population growth | _ news

"Macro policies ?" Shanghai foreign resident population growth

Why these 150,000 people fled to Shanghai?

The China economic weekly reporter Lao Jiadi | Shanghai

Many people still on the temple, the Bund, and even the most recent real estate trading center with packed when Marvel, Shanghai's population has been quietly undergoing a major change.

On February 29, 2015, Shanghai national economic and social development statistics Bulletin of a data set is amazing. The end of 2015, reduce the number of foreign residents in Shanghai by 147,700, down 1.5%, which the city's permanent population declined 0.5% per cent, to 40.6%. This is the first time in 15 years Shanghai appeared foreign resident population growth.

Hosted by population loss is much more than just a digital concept, followed, of course, is not simply a "no longer crowding" of happiness. In contrast, other cities, although Beijing was asked to adjust the functions of cities, to rein in population last year added nearly 200,000 foreign resident population, and stuck in the mountain terrain of the Shenzhen migrant populations are growing rapidly.

In the eyes of some critics, the demographics of the signal may become busy Shanghai property market can not bear the weight. It was even suggested that housing prices in Shanghai in the future because of population thinning and losing support. But the real kernel perhaps more complex than this suspicion, has always had a population of priming effect of Shanghai, will is losing population competitiveness? Whether it is industrial restructuring brought about structural changes and population turning point has arrived?

In recent 5 years the population growth decreased

Although many people are still surprised to this big city, but the population of Shanghai is already emerging. From the morphological point of view, in Shanghai over population growth was flat after a steep curve. 2010 Shanghai's population of more than 22 million, the growth began to slow, and showed a trend of slowing; by the end of 2015, for 5 years, Shanghai's population grew by more than 2 million people, but than 2014 2015 population only increased by 43,600 people.

In fact, in 2014, Shanghai's population growth has been in cities in the last place. That year show that added 368,000 population topped Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou respectively 160,000 and 150,000 people after the increase, while Shanghai rose just 100,000 people.

Alien permanent residents took the lead in "net outflow of" status quo combined with household registration on demographic trends, population growth can barely take this year, has become the unknowns. Reporters check out statistics noted that the 2013 Shanghai foreign resident population had increased by 300,000 people, total more than 9.9 million people but only about 60,000 people next year increase last year was down to 9.8165 million people, halted thousands of orders of magnitude mark.

And in well-known financial commentator Liu Xiaobo, the Census because the effects of cycles, complex factors such as performance, sometimes inaccurate, so Shanghai real demographic situation should also refer to "the number of students." But if he looked into the figures, Shanghai was a very rare scene in recent 10 years: in addition to the high school and college I have slightly increased, but last year all schools of "students" have been reduced, including primary, middle and secondary school, technical school, and so on. Where is Liu Xiaobo believed best able to reflect changes in the population status of the primary school population decreased from 2014 to 803,000 798,700.

Data, in 2008, the number of pupils in 2009 Shanghai growth hit a stunning 10.7% and 13.6%, 4 consecutive years 2010 to 2013 by more than 4% until 2014, compared with declines of 1.3%, signs of a turning point. Reporters noted that the growth this year Shenzhen is 8.6%, Guangzhou 4.7%, enrollment in Beijing reached 3.9% in the first drop, it seems to be foreshadowing for Shanghai in 2015 to negative growth.

According to Liu Xiaobo analysis, statistics of the number of pupils in each was "counting heads", so more real, "decline in population in 2015, is a confirmation of the fact."

Was also trying to find the mystery of the Shanghai population decline from other data. Large number of advisory bodies of data Ming Chen Qin, Chief Economist, found that nearly 5 years the annual growth rate of Shanghai's public transportation passenger volume each year is between 3.6% and 2.1%, 2015 years suddenly dropped to 0.9% annual growth, which means that Shanghai's commuter population growth has stagnated. This busy appearance with super large cities of Shanghai's image does not seem to have matched.

Who went? Why go?

In a world where the two years described by the data, why the total GDP of the first Shanghai suddenly "turn off"? While talking, but in the eyes of policy makers in Shanghai, "the current changes in line with expectations." The national people's Congress, Mayor Yang Xiong, Shanghai on March 6 in response to a question, said part of the resident population were reduced due to adjustment of the industrial structure labor migration along with the readjustment of the industrial structure.

"Our continuous sampling of the population, employment of floating population in Shanghai mainly manufacturing, wholesale and retail and real estate, the three industries have absorbed outsiders make up to 70% per cent of total employment, 2014 industrial immigrant population has reached 60%, the ratio may be even higher than many people imagine. "Involved in the Census of professionals in Shanghai, told the China economic weekly the reporter explained.

"Why do I say that trajectory of the migrant population is close to Shanghai's entire industrial structure has changed significantly? Because even remains higher than the population growth, especially in the core area in the center of Shanghai's population is also declining, began manufacturing relocation from Center City, the focus of population growth is mainly concentrated in the suburbs and exurbs. In recent years, Shanghai has been pursuing the ' tenglonghuanniao ', labour-intensive industries to migrate inland along the coast, a reasonable population back away from Shanghai. "Analysis of the above-mentioned persons.

According to Chen Qin cited data, Shanghai 2015 6 key industry's gross output value of industry price lower than in 2012, and that almost all workers the industry gathered. Such as oil and chemical industry for nearly three decades by 15%, iron and steel dropped by 26%, only 2014-2015 a year, petroleum and steel industry output declined by 11% and 20%, respectively. In addition, last year Shanghai completed construction area 4.3%, it meant shrinking demand for construction workers, agricultural output fell by 12.7%, "career change" farming is not realistic.

"In 2012, conducted a monitoring survey of the floating population in Shanghai, we found that the floating population in Shanghai in the manufacturing sector, only 6.9% the last switch to the wholesale and retail, accommodation, restaurants and residential services, and other people engaged in the manufacturing sector; and that 6.9% was for many years the transfer of memory, not manufacturing layoffs this year 6.9%, 6.9% of this former industrial workers soon will be able to transfer to other industries. In the cases when there is not enough jobs to absorb this population, they can only choose to leave for Shanghai. "Analysis of Chen Qin.

Shanghai University of finance population floating and labor market research director Chen Yuanyuan said in Shanghai the growth and changes of the industrial structure in recent years caused part of the migration are inextricably linked.

However, difficulties compared to Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai controlling population still has some rather unexpected, and not simply transfer the overall interpretation. One unwilling to named of Shanghai statistics people told China economic weekly reporter, another important reasons is around city group of closure effect, "Beijing around is ' ring capital poverty with ', Shenzhen location relative detached, Shanghai around is around with long triangle most rich of urban agglomeration, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, and Suzhou, and Ningbo these second-tier City this years of fast development makes Shanghai lost absolute of Center status, also from must degree Shang closure has influx Shanghai of foreign population number. ”

Meanwhile, although there is no disaggregated data show that Shanghai for high-end talents are less attractive, but the high cost of living in Shanghai is an indisputable fact. Human resources consultancy ECA International's cost of living survey shows that Shanghai has become expatriates in Asia Pacific cities with the highest cost of living.

"Keep daylight population line"

Population decline for Shanghai means what? Is traffic congestion no longer? House prices return to reason? Ideas can be of any full reality hit. In more understanding in the population changes may make Shanghai the danger is greater than negative signals.

The most direct influence on the labour market. In accordance with the age structure of the population and census proportion of practitioners, resident 24.15 million, 13.41 million working population, and accounted for 55.5% of the total population. Among them, local household registration in China with 6.35 million, foreign household workers with 7.06 million. That is, the local registered population 44% at work, population 72% in the work in the field.

"The natural change of population growth, migration and the strict control so that population growth was ' closed ' characteristic of population dynamics, this will inevitably result in Shanghai's future labor shortages, rapid development of the aging of the population and social burden of growing urban development gradually weakened. ", Director of the population Research Institute of Fudan University Wang Guixin expressed his concerns.

In fact, in the first-tier cities, population change such negative signals occurs in Shanghai and their own dynamism lacking feature is difficult to cut. "Shanghai is a paradise for State-owned enterprises, foreign companies, small and micro businesses, entrepreneurial enterprises far less than Beijing, Shenzhen, and high prices are rigid in Shanghai, compared with 420 million square meters of illegal buildings in Shenzhen as a buffer, so the population less attractive. "Liu Xiaobo is analyzed.

Undeniable is that due to the long period of lowest-low fertility status, if migrants are missing, Shanghai household register negative growth of the working-age population and ageing phenomena, and a significant reduction of the youth population in addition to causing labor contraction, will increase the city's lack of vitality and innovation ability. Model, after 2020, Shanghai's ageing population will reach 30%, ageing will become an important factor restricting the development of Shanghai's future.

Wang Guixin recommendations, Tokyo, Shanghai should learn from practice, solution to the population problem. In he seems, Tokyo area only for Shanghai of 34%, is accommodate has Shanghai 90% above of population, population density up Shanghai of 2.65 times times, but still in into 21st century Hou launched Tokyo idea 2000, vigorously promote Tokyo "are heart" regeneration, further spread increased population scale, Shanghai should follow many developed discussion or implementation "added immigration", moderate release has long on outsiders mouth into moved strictly control of points.

However, population is a complex problem, you must also consider the carrying capacity of the city itself. At the end of last year, Shanghai "Thirteen-Five" Planning Committee plenary session, "keep daylight population line" was listed as first in line, and clearly written into the plan, goal setting is that by 2020, Shanghai's permanent population must be controlled at less than 25 million people. Figure of 24.26 million last year may mean that the next 5 years, Shanghai will continue to control the population growth.

Responsible editor: Chen yan SN225

Article keywords:
An aging population growth

I want feedback
Save a Web page
China economic weekly

上海外来常住人口首次负增长 这15万人为何逃离|人口负增长|老龄化_新闻资讯

　　【宏观·政策】上海外来常住人口首次负增长

　　这15万人为何逃离大上海？

　　《中国经济周刊》记者 劳佳迪 | 上海报道

　　就在许多人依然对城隍庙、外滩甚至最近的房产交易中心报以人山人海的喟叹时，上海的人口已经悄悄发生了一个重大的变化。

　　2月29日，《2015年上海市国民经济和社会发展统计公报》里的一组数据令人惊异。2015年末，上海外来常住人口数减少了14.77万人，同比下降1.5%，其在全市常住人口中的占比下降了0.5个百分点，降至40.6%。这是上海15年来首次出现外来常住人口负增长的情况。

　　人口流失所承载的远远不止是数字概念，随之而来的当然也不单纯是“不再拥挤”的幸福感。反观其他一线城市，北京虽然受命调整城市功能，全力严控人口总量，去年依然新增了近20万外来常住人口，而拘囿于山海地形的深圳外来人口也在快速增长。

　　在一些评论者眼中，人口的变动信号可能成为当下热火朝天的上海楼市不可承受之重。有人甚至提出，未来的上海房价会因为人丁日渐稀薄而失去支撑。但问题真正的内核或许比这种猜想还要复杂许多，素来有人口吸泵效应的上海，会不会正在失去人口竞争力？这究竟是产业调整带来的结构性变化还是人口拐点已至？

　　近5年人口增长逐年减少

　　尽管许多身居这座大都会的人还是觉得意外，但上海的人口问题早已浮现。从数据形态上看，上海历年的人口增长其实是一条先陡后平的曲线。2010年上海户籍人口总数超过2200万以后，增速便开始放缓，且呈现越来越慢的态势；到2015年末的5年间，上海总人口增长了200多万人，但2015年户籍人口数量仅比2014年增长了4.36万人。

　　事实上，2014年时，上海的人口增速就已在一线城市中垫底。当年公报显示，北京以新增36.8万人口位居榜首，深圳和广州分别以16万人和15万人的增量居后，而上海只增长了10万人。

　　以外来常住人口率先“净流出”的现状再结合户籍人口变动的趋势来看，今年上海人口增速还能不能勉强收正，已经成为未知之数。记者查阅历年统计数据注意到，2013年上海外来常住人口曾增加30万人，总量突破990万人；但次年就只有约6万人的增幅，去年更下降到了981.65万人，止步于千万数量级大关。

　　而在知名财经评论人刘晓博看来，人口普查因为受周期、政绩等复杂因素的影响，有时并不准确，所以上海真实的人口情况还应该参考“在校生人数”。但若细究这项数字，上海更是出现了近10年极罕见的一幕：除了高中和大学尚有微增外，去年上海各种学校的“在校生人数”都出现了减少，包括小学、初中、中专、技校等。其中，被刘晓博认为最能反映人口变动状况的小学生人数从2014年的80.3万人减少到了79.87万人。

　　数据显示，2008年、2009年上海小学生人数增速曾触及惊人的10.7%和13.6%，2010年到2013年连续4年增幅超过4%，直到2014年增幅下滑为1.3%，出现拐点迹象。记者注意到，这一年深圳的增速是8.6%，广州是4.7%，招生人数首降的北京也达到了3.9%，这似乎为上海在2015年转为负增长埋下伏笔。

　　据刘晓博分析，小学生人数每年的统计都是“数人头”数出来的，所以更为真实，“上海人口在2015年出现下降，是个可以确认的事实”。

　　也有人试图从别的数据中找到上海人口减少的奥秘。大数据咨询机构数联铭品首席经济学家陈沁发现，近5年上海每年的公共交通客运量的年增长率都在2.1%到3.6%之间，只有2015年突然下降到年增长0.9%，这表示上海的通勤人口增长出现了停滞。这与以超级大城市繁忙面貌示人的上海形象似乎也并不相称。

　　哪些人走了？为什么走？

　　在这两年由数据描绘的世界里，为什么GDP总量全国第一的上海好像突然“熄火”？虽然外界议论纷纷，但在上海决策层眼中，“目前的变化符合预期”。全国人大代表、上海市市长杨雄3月6日在回答记者提问时表示，常住人口降低源于产业结构调整造成了一部分劳动力随着产业结构调整而迁移。

　　“我们连续对人口做抽样调查，上海外来人口过去主要的就业方向是制造业、批发零售和房地产，这三个行业吸纳的外来人口占到了总就业人口的70%以上，2014年从事工业的外来人口就达到60%，这个比例可能比许多人想象的还要高。”一位参与上海人口普查的专业人士对《中国经济周刊》记者解释。

　　“我为什么说外来人口的运动轨迹是贴合上海整个产业结构变化脉络的？因为就算是人口总数还维持着比较高的增长时，上海中心城区尤其是核心几个区的人口也是下降的，最开始是制造业从中心城区外迁，人口增长的重心就主要是集中在近郊和远郊。而这几年上海一直在推行‘腾笼换鸟’，沿海劳动密集型产业向内陆迁移，人口回流离开上海也是合理的。”上述人士如是分析。

　　根据陈沁列举的数据，上海2015年6个重点行业的工业现价总产值低于2012年，而这几乎都是产业工人最聚集的行业。比如石油和精细化工行业近三年间下降了15%、钢铁下降了26%，仅2014到2015年一年，石油和钢铁行业的总产值就分别下降了11%和20%。此外，去年上海建筑业竣工面积下降4.3%，意味着建筑工人需求量萎缩，农业产值下降12.7%，“转行”务农也不太现实。

　　“2012年上海进行了一次流动人口动态监测调查，我们发现，上海从事制造业的外来人口只有6.9%最后转行到批发零售、住宿餐饮和居民服务业，其他人始终从事制造业；而且这6.9%还是多年来的转移存量，不是说今年制造业裁员6.9%，这6.9%的原产业工人马上就能转移到其他行业去。所以在当年没有足够岗位吸纳这些人口的情况下，他们只能选择离开上海。” 陈沁这样分析。

　　上海财经大学人口流动与劳动力市场研究中心主任陈媛媛也表示，上海出现这样的负增长与近年产业结构发生变化造成一部分人口外迁密不可分。

　　不过，相比北京、深圳的困难重重，上海控制人口的效果仍然有些出人意表，并不是单纯产业转移可以全盘解释。一位不愿具名的上海统计局人士告诉《中国经济周刊》记者，另一个重要原因在于周边城市群的截流效应，“北京周边是‘环首都贫困带’，深圳地理位置相对超然，上海周边则环绕着长三角最富庶的城市群，南京、杭州、苏州、宁波这些二线城市这几年的快速发展使上海失去绝对的中心地位，也从一定程度上截流了涌入上海的外来人口数。”

　　另一方面，虽然目前并无细分数据显示上海对于高端人才的吸引力也在下降，但上海生活成本高企已是不争的事实。人力资源咨询机构ECA国际的一项生活成本调查显示，上海已经跃升亚太地区外派人员生活成本最高的城市。

　　“守住常住人口规模底线”

　　人口减少对于上海究竟意味着什么？是交通不再拥堵？是房价回归理性？任何丰满的设想都可以遭到现实一击。在更多学者的理解中，人口变动的负面信号可能会让上海危大于机。

　　最直接的影响体现在劳动力市场。按照上海人口年龄结构以及人口普查给出的从业人员比例，常住2415万人中，正在工作的人口有1341万人，约占总人口的55.5%。其中，本地户籍的从业人员有635万人，外来户籍的从业人员有706万人。也就是说，本地户籍人口有44%在工作，而外地户籍人口有72%在工作。

　　“人口自然变动持续负增长，人口迁移又受严格控制，使人口增长呈‘封闭’特征的人口动态，这将不可避免导致上海未来劳动力不足，人口高龄化迅速发展，社会负担日益加重，城市发展活力渐趋弱化。”复旦大学人口研究所所长王桂新表达了他的担忧。

　　实际上，在一线城市中，上海人口变动之所以出现这样的负面信号也和自身活力欠缺的特征难以割裂。“上海是国企、外企的乐园，小微企业、创业型企业远远少于北京、深圳，而且上海的房价高是刚性的，相比之下，深圳有4.2亿平米违法建筑为缓冲，所以上海人口吸引力下降。”刘晓博如是分析。

　　不可否认的是，由于长期处于超低生育率状态，如果再缺少了移民，上海户籍劳动年龄人口将出现负增长和日益老化的现象，而青年人口的大量减少除了造成劳动力资源萎缩外，还将加剧这座城市的活力不足和创新能力下降。有模型测算，2020年后，上海老龄人口占总人口比例将达到30%以上，老龄化将成为制约上海未来发展的一个重要因素。

　　王桂新建议，上海应该借鉴东京做法，破解人口难题。在他看来，东京面积仅为上海的34%，却容纳了上海90%以上的人口，人口密度达上海的2.65倍，但仍然在进入21世纪后推出《东京构想2000》，大力促进东京“都心”再生，进一步扩增人口规模，上海应该仿效不少发达国家探讨或实施“补充移民”，适度放开长期以来对外来人口入迁严格控制的关卡。

　　不过，人口是一个综合难题，还必须考量城市本身的承载能力。在去年年底讨论上海“十三五”规划的市委全会上，“守住常住人口规模底线”被列为底线之首，并明确写进规划纲要之中，当时目标设定的是，到2020年上海的常住人口必须控制在2500万人以内。去年2426万人的数字或许意味着未来5年上海都将继续控制人口增长。

责任编辑：陈琰 SN225

文章关键词：
人口负增长 老龄化

我要反馈
保存网页
中国经济周刊