ZTE was United States sanctions: compromise is the only option, the key is chips-ZTE, ZTE-IT information

Recently, United States on the grounds of violations of export control regulations, export restriction measures imposed on ZTE, China is no stranger to the "embargo", it is not only an economic issue, it′s not just domestic election appeal issues. But once the strategic test, was also a national price.

Carefully select a price

United States sanctions against enterprises that violate the legal strength behind the rules difficult to follow. For example, in Iran, Cuba and Sudan on issues such as, American fines as high as US $ 1.921 billion for HSBC, France Agricole, was fined $ 330 million, Credit Suisse, Germany commercial banks have to pay similar fines. However, if you look closely will find that punishment list, United States companies is very low.

In 2012, Ericsson sold telecommunications equipment to Cuba, also violated the United States embargo legislation. Later, Ericsson paid $ 1.75 million penalty; before the Arun and NSN bribery sanctions are not to the point where the embargo. Now, ZTE′s penalty is unclear, however, from pre-known embargo, is far more than the penalties for Ericsson and other similar businesses. Noteworthy is that in November 2015, Ericsson and the United States company Cisco to form a research and development partnership.

Sanctions in Europe selected bank sanctions Iran selected oil sanctions, China selected IT, it is not a coincidence. That choice cannot be random, more likely to be a catch. After all, the event has up to 4 years, and ZTE did not go to achieve Iran′s orders, but canceled because of the advance was found.

Is not the United States do not want to sanction China′s financial industry, but more difficult. An important factor is that the Bank of China in the United States very little business, international level is not high, and settlement system is not totally dependent on the US dollar, therefore, was subject to sanctions against Russia, and Iran want renminbi in order to reduce the risk of reliance on the dollar. With the advance of internationalization of RMB, US dollar gradually decoupled from the theoretically possible.

At this time, select the ZTE, more like the United States after a filter option. As compared to the financial sector, China′s IT hardware manufacturing, more separated from United States, United States with Nirvana. Even on the Chinese Internet company, Android, andiOS operating systems and servers, and so on, without United States upstream manufacturers.

However, the United States is used to sanction China over too, why Miss out? because the King is not commercial products, to the United States less dependent on types of parts to many, mainly CPU and low dependence on single CPU, China has a substitute.

However, civilian machine is different. Both ZTE and Huawei telecommunications equipment and cell phones, also is to associate the computer makers are inseparable from the United States of many components, such as telecommunication equipment parts and tens of thousands, there are hundreds of species from the United States, CPU, optical components, operating system and other products. ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo and relatively high degree of internationalization-dependent, cannot just rely on the Chinese market, sanctions, their effect is even more pronounced. In fact, in the Iran case, manufacturers of Huawei is also under investigation in the same period, United States expanded sanctions is unclear.

Integration of background, at this point, the United States operated on selected ZTE fanfare, will undoubtedly have its economic and political price. However, for this price, do you really have the means to direct confrontation? not in the short term.

But the Streaker

Since snow Deng opened Prism door Insider zhihou, world all national only suddenly found, himself national of Government, and enterprise, and even general people are is United States of monitored zhixia, is Yu nude Ben--Germany, and France, so-called of United States allies of Government and enterprise also not exception, even spread Germany Prime Minister Merkel, highest dignitaries, many more is most top of, and and United States competition of enterprise.

However, you will also find. Allies, competitors, or even, all in addition to the protests, almost no way to counter. Why? because the United States is unique in the field of information industry dominance, better CPU, operating system, database, routers, the root of the domain name service server or even ... ... Nearly all United States control. Therefore, the short term after great complained about the sound, life goes on.

None of the countries have the capacity to fight, that′s the basic truth. Germany, and France have been trying to do their own search engine, failed Japan tries to do its own operating system and CPU failure; Sweden used to have its own database MySQL, was acquired ... ... Even a mobile phone company Nokia is taken over and eventually died a little bit strange. Information industrial ecological chain is highly complex, small hard to live and the weak is incapable of developing, making a weak sense of the presence of Europe in the era of information industry while Japan limited the narrow local market, cultural expansion are no longer available, and eventually choose to keep some spare parts industry, Korea, and Taiwan are only middle and lower reaches.

This is the basic facts in the international relations, industrial competitiveness gaps of basic facts: accept Streaker, but nothing, it is a higher-dimensional low-dimensional differences. With the Indians when the Europeans attack and there is no significant difference with Magellan on a few ships to destroy a country is not a fundamental difference. Even stronger in North America Indian tribes such as the Apache, can resist attack for many years, but are unable to fight back even killed Magellan xilapulapu individuals, unable to close the gap on weapons.

When China launched to IOE operation, can do nothing more than a United States, disguised in the Government Procurement Act, are just hoping that the United States part of the shield in the Government, financial and other core systems, and more United States nothing. If this is to get rid of streaking, is just one more belts.

But when China further, began making its own IC industry, when China was in quantum communication, Internet of things, when there are some new developments in the field, though still large gaps, has caused the United States enough to rebound. In the United States on the new Government to be stage, United States lead given the asking price, has kicked the ball back into China.

ZTE was the hostage of the asking price. United States also delayed as much as possible in China away from its high-tech dependent on time.

Compromise is the political language

ZTE is just a telecommunication equipment and mobile phones businesses, United States loss is shared by hundreds of vendors, and ZTE will face the loss of 100%. No Chinese IT manufacturers have the ability to fight United States industrial chain, nor against the United States Government. As long as the embargo is long enough, ZTE′s cash flow will break, clients also lost entirely--this is no escaping the fact that the risk of bankruptcy.

ZTE has to do is compromise, there is no doubt that as a public company, a company with nearly 80,000 employees, upstream and downstream industry chain partners involved hundreds of thousands of jobs ... ... ZTE will be willing to compromise. Compromise is a weak point for their own responsibility, but far greater than the results of the deserved punishment can only be reconciled.

At this time, the key is to know the United States exactly how high the price? if it is economic sanctions, or legal liability of people involved is a matter of enterprise level, but if the price continues to increase at all?, is very difficult for ZTE problem and need more players to solve.

However, the issue is not without a solution. Since the current pattern, United States Jie Gu, China absent and when turned, more fighting, both alone and ZTE injury up to United States strategic interests. Predictable is the future: China continues to increase the independent research and development efforts, it is irresistible, but not too eager to accept the fact that continues to lag in the 5-10; United States hopes to maintain control of some unique industries, want as much access to reality and future interests, in particular, to scare, maintaining industry chain of control.

ZTE, can do is to compromise corporate efforts to foster a problem solved as soon as possible. While the game between State and industry, will be a long battle, friction inevitably take a long time in the future, competition in the cooperation will become the new normal of Sino-US economic relations.

中兴遭美国制裁：妥协是唯一选择，关键是筹码 - 中兴,中兴通讯 - IT资讯

近日美国以违反出口管制法规为由，对中兴通讯采取限制出口措施，即中国并不陌生的”禁运”，这已经不单纯是经济问题，也不仅仅是国内选举诉求问题。而是一次战略性试探，也是一次国家间的要价。

精心选择的一次要价

美国对企业违反类似法律的制裁强度不一而足，背后规律难循。比如，在伊朗、古巴和苏丹等问题上，美方对汇丰的罚金高达19.21亿美元，法国农业信贷银行被罚款3.3亿美金，瑞信、德国商业银行等也都缴纳过类似罚金。但是，如果你仔细观察会发现，处罚名单当中，美国本土企业占比很低。

2012年，爱立信因将电信设备销售给古巴，同样违反了美国的禁运法案。事后，爱立信支付175万美元处罚了事;再之前对阿朗和诺西的行贿制裁等也没有到禁运的地步。现在，对中兴的处罚结果还不得而知，但是，从前期已知的禁运来看，已经远远超过了对爱立信及其他相似企业的处罚力度。值得关注的是，2015年11月，爱立信宣布与美国企业思科结成研发等合作关系。

制裁欧洲选银行，制裁伊朗选石油，制裁中国选IT，这并非偶然。这样的选择不可能是随机的，更可能是暗藏玄机。毕竟，这个事件已经长达4年，而且中兴最终也没有实现伊朗的该项订单，而是因为提前被发现而取消。

并非美国不想制裁中国金融产业，而是难度较大。一个重要的因素在于，中国银行在美国很少有业务，国际化程度也不高，且结算体系不完全依赖于美元，所以，一度受制裁的俄罗斯、伊朗等都希望通过人民币结算，以减少依赖美元的风险。随着人民币国际化的推进，与美元的逐步脱钩从理论上成为可能。

这时候，选择中兴，更像是美国一个筛选过之后的选择。因为相比金融行业，中国的IT整机制造领域，更加离不开美国，美国有必杀技。即使是中国的互联网企业，在Android、iOS等操作系统和服务器等方面，也一样离不开美国上游厂商。

但是，此前美国也曾经制裁过中国的超算，为什么失手了?因为超算并非民用产品，对美国依赖的部件种类要少很多，主要是CPU，而且对单颗粒CPU依赖较低，中国已经有了替代品。

但是，民用整机则不同。无论是中兴、华为这样的电信设备和手机，还是联想这样的电脑厂商都离不开美国的很多部件产品，比如，电信设备零部件数以万计，有数百种来自美国，有CPU、也有光元器件、操作系统等产品。中兴、华为、联想的国际化依赖度又比较高，无法只靠中国市场，制裁它们的效果无疑更加显著。事实上，在伊朗事件当中，华为同期也是受调查的厂商，美国是否扩大制裁不得而知。

综合各种背景来看，此时，美国选择中兴大张旗鼓开刀，无疑会有其经济和政治要价。但是，对于这种要价，目前真的有办法直接对抗吗?短期内不能。

无奈的裸奔

自从斯诺登揭开棱镜门内幕之后，全世界所有国家才突然发现，自己国家的政府、企业、甚至普通民众都是美国的监视之下，无异于裸奔——德国、法国等所谓的美国盟友的政府和企业也不例外，甚至波及德国总理默克尔等最高政要，很多更是最顶尖的、和美国竞争的企业。

但是，你也会发现。盟友也好、竞争者也好，大家除了抗议之外，几乎没有办法反制。为什么?因为美国在信息产业领域的统治力是独一无二的，CPU也好、操作系统也好、数据库也好、路由器也好、域名服务的根服务器也好……几乎都是美国控制的。因此，短期巨大的抱怨声音之后，生活还要继续。

没有一个国家具备反抗的能力，这就是基本的事实。德国、法国都力图做过自己的搜索引擎，失败;日本力图做过自己的操作系统和CPU，失败;瑞典曾经有自己的数据库MySQL，被收购……就连一家手机公司诺基亚最终被收购而死的都有点蹊跷。信息产业生态链高度复杂，小国难以独存、弱国没能力开发，这使得欧洲在信息产业时代的存在感很弱;而日本受限本土市场的狭小，文化扩张力不足，最终选择保留部分零部件产业，韩国、台湾更是只能做中下游。

这就是国际关系里的基本事实，也是产业竞争力差距的基本事实：接受裸奔，但无可奈何，这是高维打低维的差别。与当年欧洲人进攻印第安人并没有太大的差别，与麦哲伦们靠几艘战舰消灭一个国家没有根本区别。即使北美强大如Apache这样的印第安部落，能抵挡进攻多年，但是也无力反击;即使西拉普拉普杀死了麦哲伦个人，也无法弥补武器上的差距。

当中国发起去IOE行动时，所能做的也不过是一项学习美国的、变相的《政府采购法》，只不过是希望把美国的部分产品屏蔽在政府、金融等核心系统之外，而对更多的美国产品则无能无力。如果说这是希望摆脱裸奔，也不过是先多一个裤头。

但当中国更进一步，开始全力做自己的IC产业，当中国在量子通信、物联网等领域有一些新进展的时候，虽然依然差距巨大，已经引起了美国足够的反弹。在美国新一届政府即将上台前，美国率先给出了要价，把皮球踢给了中国。

而中兴，就是这次要价的人质。美国也在尽可能拖延中国摆脱对其高科技依赖的时间窗。

妥协是政治语言

中兴不过是一家电信设备和手机企业，美国方面的损失被均分到了几百家供应商身上，中兴却要面对100%的损失。没有一家中国IT整机企业有能力对抗美国的产业链，也不可能对抗美国政府。只要禁运时间足够长，中兴的现金流就会断裂，客户也会流失，完全有破产的风险——这是无需回避的事实。

中兴所能做的就是妥协，毫无疑问，作为一家上市公司，作为一家有近8万员工的企业，上下游产业链合作伙伴涉及的数十万岗位……中兴会愿意妥协。妥协是为了自己的纰漏担责，但是远大于应得处罚的结果也只能认命。

这时候，关键是要知道美国的要价到底有多高?如果是经济上的制裁，或者涉事人的法律责任都是企业层面的事情;但是，如果这种要价继续提高呢?这时候，就是中兴自己很难解决的问题了，需要更多的参与方去解决。

但是，问题并非无解。因为目前的格局下，美国没到和中国揭蛊翻脸的时候，更多的是暗战，两败俱伤、独伤中兴也达不到美国的战略利益。比较可预期的未来是：中国继续加大自主研发力度，这不可阻挡，但是也不能急于求成，要接受5-10年内依然落后的事实;美国也希望继续保持一些独特的产业控制权，希望尽可能多的获得现实的利益和未来的利益，特别是要杀鸡儆猴，维持产业链的控制权。

至于中兴，所能做的就是先把企业端能妥协的做好，努力促成问题的尽快解决。而国家和产业之间的博弈，将是漫长的拉锯战，未来的摩擦必然会旷日持久，竞争里有合作恐怕会成为中美经济关系的新常态。