Governor of the ICBC's original: 3% government deficit rate security | | security _ news

Original title: economic growth downward if the massive stimulus?

Wu Xiaoling

The national people's Congress, Vice Chairman of the NPC financial and Economic Committee Wu Xiaoling: currency once the banks, which are beyond its control. But structural adjustment depends on additional financial and fiscal money which is kedingkemao.

Mr Yang

CPPCC National Committee member, former Governor of ICBC Yang kaisheng: this year's deficit increased to 3%, indicating positive financial policy bigger than last year.

Gu Shengzu

The national people's Congress, Vice Chairman of the NPC financial and Economic Committee: public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation is the source of economic dynamism, transformation and upgrading of the road, is an important hand hedge against economic downturn.

Liu shijin

CPPCC National Committee member, former Deputy Director of the development research center of the State Council: now 7% and 2008 GDP growth below GDP growth at the end of the stage is different.

Early this year, according to data published by the National Bureau in 2015, China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is 6.9%, a 25-year low.

"The Chinese economy still has huge potential: we have such a high savings rate, such a big swing space, once the economy appears to slide out a decent range of signs, the hand will be decisive shots. "On February 14, 2016, Premier Li keqiang categorically said," this year, the global economic situation is very complex, so we should be more active as, ' swung Golden ' challenge! ”

On March 1, the Central Bank reduced reserve requirements for financial institutions 0.5%, this is the first time this year, China's Central Bank reduced, since October 24, 2015, is falling for the first time in four months. Some analysts believe, it is a sign of strong monetary easing, stimulus. On the evening of March 1, Xinhua commented, this is still within the limits of the adjustment is not a harbinger of strong China's massive stimulus. China's top would not scale to stimulate the economy, and this judgement based on Chinese control means "upgrade", as well as on economic fundamentals at home and abroad after the consideration of "no".

On March 5, Chinese Premier Li pointed out in his Government work report, around to stimulate market activity, increase the intensity of reform and opening up. We do not engage in "flood irrigation" type of strong stimulation, but continue to promote structural reforms. Deepening reform of decentralization, put in the pipes, and optimization services.

A week later on March 12, the people's Bank of China Governor Zhou xiaochuan said in answering reporters ' questions, if no major international and domestic economic and financial turmoil, will maintain a prudent monetary policy, without excessive monetary stimulus approach was necessary to achieve the goal.

For official statements, a number of representatives, members of the Beijing News reporter said the Government does not have the necessary mass to stimulate the economy this year. CPPCC National Committee member, said Liu shijin, Vice Director of development research center of the State Council, currently don't need massive stimulus. Expect the economy will gradually bottom in the second half of this year or the first half of next year.

　　"Structural adjustment to rely more on fiscal policy"

The national people's Congress, Vice Chairman of the NPC financial and Economic Committee Wu Xiaoling

The Beijing News: financial policy instruments used to be more frequent in the future?

Xiaoling Wu: from the 2008 financial crisis, national monetary policies to an extreme, many countries have adopted quantitative easing. Since 2009, China's money supply growth rate is also very large, growth in 2009 alone about 29%. Later controlled, stabilized at around 12%.

The result of excessive use of monetary policy, inflation, and when there is no scope for growth in consumer prices, asset prices are inflated. In terms of house prices, for example, from 2009 until now, housing prices have increased. By 2014 the price can't walk, stock price came up again. Stock market has fallen, prices have gone up again. Among other reasons, a large number of the money stock is also an objective factor.

Total is not of the current global problems, but structural problems. Structural reforms, monetary policy can do is limited. Currency after the Bank, which are beyond its control. But structural adjustment depends on additional financial and fiscal money which is kedingkemao.

The Beijing News: previously referred to by the Central Bank's monetary policy "sound slightly looser" How should one interpret? January's new Yuan loans surge would be the new normal?

Wu Xiaoling: every year when the Central Bank sets monetary policy, is generally forecast economic growth rate + expected price growth + 2%-3% uncertainties, annual M2 growth was released by the Central Bank. 6.5% to 7% of GDP growth this year, add 3% of CPI growth, finalization of the M2 growth rate was 13%. Slightly easing now, and 2% in previous years, this year plus 3, other standards are set high.

In the time of economic adjustment, hope the slightly loose credit policies that, to create a structure for making the choice environment.

Increase in new loans in January, mainly because a lot of the EIA of the project legitimacy and demolition procedures, resulting in many big projects last year did not begin. After more than a year of preparation, many big projects this year, which can be seen from the medium-and long-term loans grew, is a good thing.

　　"3% the government deficit ratio is safe"

CPPCC National Committee member, former Governor of ICBC Yang kaisheng

The Beijing News: Japan, Europe and other areas to achieve a massive economic stimulus plan, such as the imposition of negative interest rates and QE, the effectiveness of these plans?

Yang kaisheng: Japan, Europe's policy of stimulating effect is limited. This year's Government work report once again made it clear that we don't flood irrigation to stimulate, clear route planning for the future: we are focused on restructuring, focusing on increasing the kinetic energy of new and active dynamic further development of old, with twin engines to promote stimulating China's economic development.

The Beijing News: whether there will be some stimulus on the economy? Such as looser monetary policy, etc?

Yang said: we should not say that is the loose monetary policy. The current macro-control policy is a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Active fiscal policy is likely to increase, this year's deficit increased to 3%, indicating positive financial policy bigger than last year.

But the formulation of monetary policy remained prudent monetary policy, in the implementation process more flexible and moderate. Flexible, main content should be referring to keeping the real economy, keeping ample liquidity necessary for the socio-economic life, but this is not the loose monetary policy. Governor Zhou said, turning slightly loose. I think, and is consistent with the statement in the Government work report.

The Beijing News: this year's Government work report a deficit target of 3%, do you think there will be a risk?

Yang said: in accordance with China's economy, the quality of economic operation and the capacity of the domestic economy, I think 3% is safe.

　　"Public venture much innovation can effectively hedge against economic downturn"

The national people's Congress, Vice Chairman of the NPC financial and Economic Committee Gu Shengzu

The Beijing News: 2015, GDP growth fell to 6.9%, how to look at the current economic situation?

Gu Shengzu: China's economic situation showed divergent trends, difficulties and hopes, pressures and potential pain points and highlights both slowing economic growth but the economy structure optimization and quality improvement trend, old momentum fading or have disappeared, new kinetic energy are constantly emerging.

The Beijing News: what is new momentum for economic growth?

Gu Shengzu: driving consumption growth increased in the industrial structure of the tertiary industry accounted for "half", public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation to flourish and so are the bright spot in the economic growth.

The Beijing News: "public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation" able to hedge the downside?

Gu Shengzu: mass start, the much anticipated innovation is the source of economic dynamism, transformation and upgrading of the road, is an important hand hedge against economic downturn. 2016 said in the Government work report, "public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation to flourish, registration of new enterprises was 21.6% for the year, a daily average of added 12,000 families. New dynamics of stable employment and promote industrial upgrading has played a prominent role, are driving profound changes in the economic and social ". Current public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation as stated in the 1978 reform and opening and Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in 1992, through the system supply and reforms leading to fully mobilize millions of people's enthusiasm to create wealth, effective hedge against economic downturn.

The Beijing News: "mass innovation of entrepreneurship, the much anticipated" how to promote the supply side of structural reform?

Gu Shengzu: mass start, the much anticipated innovation is structural reform of the supply side of the engine. Supply side structural reform's main task is to free up resources from the overcapacity in the industry, emphasized the role of entrepreneurs and innovators as market players to play, play the decisive role of market forces in allocating resources, and fully mobilize the masses of innovation entrepreneurship, stimulate the wisdom and creativity of the whole society.

"Mass venture, and peoples innovation" are through system supply and reform led maximum play people of intelligence created, put workers create rich enthusiasm inspired out for target, not only can enhanced micro economic vitality, support small micro-enterprise growth, and can play system innovation and technology progress on supply upgrade of doubled effect, for China economic transformation looking for a new of kinetic energy, promote traditional industry transformation upgrade, created new supply, created new needs, improve supply system of quality and efficiency, led new employment and consumption structure upgrade.

To realize China's industrial structure from the lower end of the excess supply to supply higher value-added creative structural change, you need to give full play to the role of entrepreneurs and revive the spirit of entrepreneurs. Public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation is an important carrier for incubating entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs are the most significant supply side. Supply side reform success, the key lies in the ability to mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of entrepreneurs and growing entrepreneurial class, cultivate and revive the spirit of entrepreneurship and sustainable public health entrepreneurship, much innovation.

　　"7% is no longer the Government's massive stimulus criterion"

CPPCC National Committee member, former Deputy Director of the development research center of the State Council Liu shijin

The Beijing News: China's current economy, some analysts believe that the Government should hand "massive stimulus." In this regard, do you agree?

Liu shijin: at present, the Government has no need to hand to stimulate it. From the perspective of economic restructuring, the economic situation now is normal.

The Beijing News: March 1, 0.5% banks drop, some analysts believe this is a sign of strong monetary easing, stimulus. The current monetary policy, fiscal policy or what tools can I use?

Liu shijin: monetary policy is the camera decision and short term policies, based on economic conditions to make a decision. It is difficult to expect six months after interest rate cuts, reducing. If the economy is bottoming out to stabilise, then, loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy has no need for further easing.

The Beijing News: 2008 fourth-quarter and the first quarter of 2009, GDP growth is lower than 7%, then triggered a massive stimulus of 4 trillion. Last year, China's GDP growth to below 7%. Do you think the Government won't sell weapons this year to stimulate the economy?

Liu shijin: Although these two periods are faced with broken 7% in GDP growth of China's economy, however, with at the end of 2008 is now completely different.

The second half of 2008, a sudden drop of China's economy is facing United States tremendous external shocks of the financial crisis caused by a sudden drop in, and that China's economy still has high growth potential now, growth of China's economy has undergone conversion into the new normal, ultra high-speed growth for high growth.

To sum up, 7% is no longer the main criterion of Government massive stimulus. Now China GDP growth below 7% and end of 2008 GDP growth rate lower than 7% are at different stages of development, underlying growth momentum is also different.

The Beijing News: If no helping hand stimulation, faced "the hardest" in 2016, the Government adopted measures to curb the economic downturn?

Liu shijin: China's economy will gradually bottom in the second half of this year or the first half of next year. At present, the rebound in commodity prices has gradually picked up, economy is gradually bottoming out. Bottom meaning is not going to go away, l-shaped forecast that the Chinese economy is basically adds some small w-shaped pattern. Of course, hit bottom and the economy will not have a large v-shaped reverse, won't be back to 8% of the high growth of the past.

A08-A09 interview/Beijing News reporter Jin 彧 chenyangliuxia

Responsible editor: Li Tianyi

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中国工商银行原行长：政府3%赤字率安全|赤字|安全_新闻资讯

　　原标题：经济增速下行：是否会大规模刺激经济？

吴晓灵

　　全国人大代表、全国人大财经委副主任委员吴晓灵：货币一旦出了银行，到哪去是无法控制的。但结构调整更多要依靠财政，财政的钱到哪是可丁可卯的。

杨凯生

　　全国政协委员、中国工商银行原行长杨凯生：今年的赤字率提升到3%，说明积极财政政策力度比去年大一些。

辜胜阻

　　全国人大代表、全国人大财经委员会副主任委员：大众创业、万众创新是经济活力之源，也是转型升级之道，更是当前对冲经济下行的重要抓手。

刘世锦

　　全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任：现在GDP增速低于7%与2008年底GDP增速所处阶段不同。

　　今年初，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2015年的中国国内生产总值（GDP）增速为6.9%，创下25年来新低。

　　“中国经济仍有巨大的潜力：我们有这么高的储蓄率，这么大的回旋空间，一旦经济真的出现滑出合理区间的苗头，该出手时我们会果断出手。”2016年2月14日，李克强总理斩钉截铁地说，“今年全球经济形势异常复杂，所以我们要更加主动作为，‘抡起金箍棒’应对挑战！”

　　3月1日，央行正式下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点，这是中国央行今年首次降准，也是自2015年10月24日以来四个月内首次降准。有分析认为，这是货币宽松、强刺激的表现。对此，3月1日晚间，新华社发表评论称，这仍属界限之内的调整，绝非中国大规模强刺激经济的先兆。中国不会大规模强刺激经济，这一判断基于中国调控手段的“升级”，以及对国内外经济基本面考量后的“无需”。

　　3月5日，国务院总理李克强在政府工作报告中指出，围绕激发市场活力，加大改革开放力度。我们不搞“大水漫灌”式的强刺激，而是持续推动结构性改革。深入推进简政放权、放管结合、优化服务改革。

　　一周后的3月12日，中国人民银行行长周小川在答记者问时表示，如果国际国内没有大的经济金融风波事件，会保持稳健的货币政策，没有必要采用过度的货币政策刺激的办法来实现目标。

　　对于官方的表态，多位代表、委员向新京报记者表示今年政府没有必要大规模刺激经济。全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦表示，当前没必要大规模刺激经济。预计中国经济将在今年下半年或明年上半年逐步触底。

　　“结构性调整要更多依赖财政政策”

　　全国人大代表、全国人大财经委副主任委员 吴晓灵

　　新京报：未来财政政策手段使用会更加频繁？

　　吴晓灵：从2008年金融危机以来，各国的货币政策用到了极致，许多国家都采取了量化宽松。中国从2009年以来货币供应量增长幅度也是很大的，仅2009年一年就增长了约29%。后来基本控制住了，稳定在12%左右。

　　过度使用货币政策的结果，就是通货膨胀，而在消费品价格没有增长余地时，资产价格就会大幅膨胀。以房价为例，从2009年到现在，房价上涨很多。到2014年房价走不动，股价又上来了。股市下跌了，房价又上涨了。除了其他原因，大量货币存量也是客观因素。

　　目前全球存在的不是总量问题，而是结构问题。结构改革方面，货币政策能做的有限。货币一旦出了银行，到哪去是无法控制的。但结构调整更多要依靠财政，财政的钱到哪是可丁可卯的。

　　新京报：此前央行提到的货币政策“稳健略偏宽松”应怎么理解？1月份的新增人民币贷款剧增是否会成为新常态？

　　吴晓灵：每年央行制定货币政策时，一般都是预测经济增长率+预计物价增长率+2到3个百分点的不确定性因素，每年央行公布的M2增速基本都是这样。比如今年是6.5%到7%的GDP增长，加3%的CPI增长，最后确定的M2增速是13%。略显宽松体现在，往年加2个百分点，今年加了3个，其他的标准也是按高限来定的。

　　在经济调整的当下，希望信贷政策能稍微宽松一点，营造一个有所取舍的结构调整环境。

　　1月份的新增贷款增多，主要是由于很多项目的环评和拆迁合法性手续，导致去年很多大项目没有开工。经过一年准备，今年许多大项目开工，这也可以从中长期贷款项目增长上看到，是个好事。

　　“政府3%赤字率是安全的”

　　全国政协委员、中国工商银行原行长 杨凯生

　　新京报：日本、欧洲等地区多次实现大规模经济刺激计划，比如实行负利率和QE等，这些计划的效果如何？

　　杨凯生：日本、欧洲采取的刺激政策效果是有限的。而今年总理的政府工作报告又一次明确地说，我们不搞大水漫灌式的刺激，清晰表明了未来的路线规划：我们还是重点在结构调整，重点在增加经济新的动能；同时把旧的发展动力进一步活跃起来，用双引擎来推动刺激中国经济的发展。

　　新京报：对经济是否会有一些刺激计划？比如宽松的货币政策等？

　　杨凯生：不应说是宽松的货币政策。目前的宏观调控政策还是积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极财政政策的力度有可能加大，今年的赤字率提升到3%，说明积极财政政策力度比去年大一些。

　　但货币政策的提法依然是稳健的货币政策，在实施过程中更加灵活和适度。对于灵活，主要内容应该是指保持实体经济，保持社会经济社会生活所必要的充裕的流动性，但这并非宽松的货币政策。周小川行长说过，转向略微偏松。我认为和政府工作报告里的表述是一致的。

　　新京报：今年政府工作报告提出了3%的赤字率目标，你认为会有风险吗？

　　杨凯生：按照中国目前经济体量、经济运行质量和国内经济的承受能力，我认为3%是安全的。

　　“大众创业万众创新可以有效对冲经济下行”

　　全国人大代表、全国人大财经委员会副主任委员 辜胜阻

　　新京报：2015年GDP增速降至6.9%，如何看待当前经济形势？

　　辜胜阻：中国经济形势呈现明显的分化趋势，困难和希望，压力与潜力，痛点与亮点并存，经济增速放缓但经济中的结构优化与质量提升趋势明显，旧的动能在消退或已经消失，新的动能也在不断涌现。

　　新京报：哪些是经济增长的新动能？

　　辜胜阻：如消费对增长的拉动作用增强，第三产业在产业结构中占到“半壁江山”，大众创业、万众创新蓬勃发展等都是经济增长中的亮点。

　　新京报：“大众创业、万众创新”能否对冲经济下行？

　　辜胜阻：大众创业、万众创新是经济活力之源，也是转型升级之道，更是当前对冲经济下行的重要抓手。2016年政府工作报告中指出，“大众创业、万众创新蓬勃发展，全年新登记注册企业增长21.6%，平均每天新增1.2万户。新动能对稳就业、促升级发挥了突出作用，正在推动经济社会发生深刻变革”。当前的大众创业、万众创新正如1978年的改革开放和1992年的邓小平南巡一样，正通过制度供给和改革引领充分调动起亿万人民群众的创富热情，有效对冲经济下行。

　　新京报：“大众创业、万众创新”如何促进供给侧结构性改革？

　　辜胜阻：大众创业、万众创新是供给侧结构性改革的重大引擎。供给侧结构性改革的主要任务是将资源要素从产能过剩的产业中释放出来，强调发挥创业者和创新者作为市场主体的作用，发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，充分调动起亿万人民群众的创新创业热情，激发出全社会的智慧才能和创造活力。

　　“大众创业、万众创新”正通过制度供给和改革引领最大限度发挥人的智力创造，把劳动者创富热情激发出来为目标，不仅能增强微观经济活力，扶持小微企业成长，而且能发挥制度创新和技术进步对供给升级的倍增效应，为中国经济转型寻找一种新的动能，促进传统产业改造升级，创造新供给，创造新需求，提高供给体系的质量和效率，带动新就业和消费结构升级。

　　要实现中国产业从低端的过剩供给结构向高附加值的创造性供给结构转变，需要充分发挥企业家的作用和重振企业家精神。大众创业、万众创新是孵化企业家和企业家精神的重要载体。企业家是供给侧最重要的主体。供给侧改革成败与否，关键在于能否调动企业家的积极性与创造性，而壮大企业家阶层，培育和重振企业家精神又要靠健康可持续的大众创业、万众创新。

　　“7%不再是政府大规模刺激经济判断依据”

　　全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任 刘世锦

　　新京报：对于当前的中国经济，有分析认为政府应该出手“大规模刺激”。对此，你是否认同？

　　刘世锦：目前看，政府还没有出手刺激的必要。因为从经济转型的角度来看，现在的经济状况是正常的。

　　新京报：3月1日，央行降准0.5个百分点，有分析认为这是货币宽松、强刺激的表现。当前货币政策、财政政策还有哪些工具可以使用？

　　刘世锦：货币政策从来都是相机决策，也是短期政策，是根据经济情况来做决策的。现在很难预期半年后是否降息、降准。如果经济触底回升企稳，那么，宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策就没有进一步宽松的必要了。

　　新京报：2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度，GDP增速均低于7%，当时触发了4万亿的大规模刺激。去年中国GDP增速也降至7%以下。你认为政府今年会不会再出手大规模刺激经济？

　　刘世锦：虽然这两个时期的中国经济都面临GDP增速破7%的情况，但是，现在跟2008年底时的情况已经完全不同。

　　2008年下半年，中国经济的突然下降是因为面临美国金融危机的巨大外部冲击造成的突然下降，而那时中国经济仍有高增长的潜力；现在，中国经济的增长阶段已发生了转换，步入新常态，由超高速增长转变为中高速增长。

　　综上，7%不再是政府出手大规模刺激经济的主要判断依据了。现在中国GDP增速低于7%与2008年底GDP增速低于7%所处的发展阶段不同，潜在的增长动能也不同。

　　新京报：如果不出手刺激，面对“最困难”的2016年，政府该采取何种措施遏制经济持续下行？

　　刘世锦：中国经济将在今年下半年或明年上半年逐步触底。目前，大宗商品价格已逐步回升反弹，经济正逐步触底。触底的含义就是不会再继续往下走了，预计未来中国经济基本上是大的L形加一些小的W形的形态。当然，触底后的中国经济也不会有大的V形反转，不会再回到过去8%以上的高增长。

　　A08-A09版采写/新京报记者 金彧 陈杨 刘夏

责任编辑：李天奕

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