Www editors: newspapers will die, most of the media people will be laid off in 2017-2018-newspapers, media, robot-IT information
The first day of the new year holiday on February 6, Tencent, Tencent editor-in-chief Wang Yongzhi was going to sleep late, but Taiwan earthquake that occurred early this morning but he had to get up early to coordinate work, and who used to work the norm already. Wang Yongzhi, self out and iterative nature of the Internet, the Internet always in a State of self-anxiety, sense of myself, afraid of being subversive, fear of being abandoned. Wang Yongzhi in the running state of how to look at the future of media development trends? Hedgehog Curtis in the Spring Festival to interview Wang Yongzhi, shares his 10 predictions about the future of media development.
1, newspapers in addition to the collapse have no other way out
2015 report says "print Cliff fall", my judgment is that by 2018 is likely to have two-thirds more than paper media will "guantingbingzhuan" print here mainly refers to the form of print media.
Newspapers in addition to the collapse have no other way out, no matter how official encouraged the fusion of old and new media, traditional media, how confident, how physical and how news of the ideal.
Not kill old media new media, but the user gave up newspapers, transferred to new media. Print this medium has been left behind, the younger generation has basically not used, because reading and carrying are not convenient. Some older users also like to print, but it was too small, just as some people like to write by hand instead of typing on the computer, but you can obviously felt pen use has become more and more aristocratic, most people just use the pen as a pen.
Expressed that print to boutique luxury in the future direction of development, but it seems to me this is just wishful thinking. In simple terms, Opera currently is enough of quality and luxury, but has evolved to a very few people. Print boutique luxury of course I am afraid, is an anger and ridicule, because this is no way to live, make souvenirs out of print is no problem, but it can′t support a newspaper.
Print may with serial number and brand of the future exists, but the form is not known. Currently known is to print with all the major platform for cooperation, and become a major platform for content suppliers, similar to News columnist.
2, old and new media, not fusion
Media Terminal turnover impossible to reverse. From newspapers, radio, television, and Internet and mobile Internet, the relationship of the first three is stacking can be symbiotic, but network media appears to be on the first three "mix" network media without traditional media in the way of living.
Old media could not possibly live. Print is buggy, media is to fly a plane. Buggy can learn to drive a car and train, but almost impossible to learn to fly a plane. Not go beyond the present tense in the past, now cannot catch up with the future.
Fusion of old and new media is "fake marriage". Old and new media, is the relationship between water and oil, not integration. Cooperation is now official policy and must be done under the framework of the topic, you know perfectly well, but some people still think that there is the possibility. So far, I see the most sober person is the boss of the Zhejiang daily, he had a pyramid model, the bottom is a people-oriented service, let the Internet do intermediate column from the media, encouraged the media to freely; pyramid point leave the paper intact, follow the party line, firmly standing on the most high.
3 independent APP, print transformation time has past
In 2015, a lot of news APP, but I think the print independent APP make a transition time is gone. APP Pack one or two news categories to normal users is enough, news APP market is covered by a portal, media opportunities and the market is running out of paper. If the app in the future, like Zhang Xiaolong said the launched application is the equivalent of creating a lightweight APP platform, the traditional media, independent of the existing APP is not only enough.
In addition, the print media also failed to keep up. Technology is the first media driven, the realization of any one on the Internet all depend on the technology of pilot. Internet product is often based on the genius the genius idea of the characters, on the Internet, the wisdom of the masses is useless, a genius determines a company′s life and death, with a genius are worth more than 10,000 ordinary people.
Print is almost the only survived by content production media. Almost all print media do not have a high level of technical director, also does not have sufficient technical input, visible realization of self-castration. Traditional media are gone, many newspaper executives have not recognized that where is the importance of a product′s Technical Director, this is the paradox of a system.
Of course, we encourage print APP does try, but how long can support the agnostic, I′m not very optimistic about.
4, most of the media people will be laid off 2017-2018
Why newspapers are dying?, paper matchmaker to the knowledge, understanding and skills of the ceiling. Media industry as a whole now has 250,000 practitioners, and their little core productivity for Internet, fate has only one death.
Laid off 250,000 workers mostly in 2017-2018 because the industry and skill of excess and obsolete. Media and public relations with some media people in transition, but not that of multimedia PR jobs, do not need as much PR. Overall, under the existing skills of practitioners, is unable to find work in the future.
Newspaper people often say to me, "the old King, we′re not having a hard time, and there is no post or let me help you to pipe a pipe and do some planning. I am older now, and do not want to do something easy for me ". I had heard the word, immediately refused to act decisively, because the Internet doesn′t need this kind of senior management personnel, to working people, regardless of age.
5, Pan-media people eternal life
Pan-media people eternal life. Two micro-end collapse sector productivity, free personal productivity. Want to do media people, provided they are not generally ideal news, skills training in place, ideal space is still to achieve. Current company news and headlines today as a representative of media is rebuilding the media ecology, the biggest feature is the ability to feed the media. Media as a producer, as long as you provide facts, are able to survive through our platform.
Crowdsourcing has existed in the industry in the production of the news, and the scale will increase. With the expansion of platform capabilities, media ecology′s reconstruction is going to have a large number of institutions and individuals around the platform.
Humans will never need the truth, the Government will always need supervision, pressed and digging for truth will always need professionals. Since the media more and more, all sound very noisy, but final and never need professionals. Media has advantages in this regard, because now the media and fewer people. Tu Nobel Prize, failed first-hand interviews with the national media, who can do interviews, content must be worth, but can do that fight also was the reporter′s personal expertise and ground-breaking.
6, platforms, feed creators will rebuild the media ecosystem
Traffic and revenue-financed media elite and the elite media is an industry-wide strategy. Is expected in 2016 information mobile cash amount for the year as a whole will exceed 10 billion, took 20%-financed institutions, media and the media, will be 2 billion if spread over 10,000 people, each person will have 200,000, allocated to 100 institutions, each is 20 million.
As long as people have the ability, the platform is willing to put up money to invest. 2015 Tencent Media Awards journalist of the year winner Wang Heyan got 100,000 yuan in prize money. If you are good enough, like 100,000 we can sign 100, invested 10 million Yuan a year, as long as they take a year out of a 100,000-yuan worth of story, I believe it is an accomplishment for any media. But conversely, whether the country can find 100 reporter for King and rock that is the problem.
Future platforms feed will be very strong, media people seize the opportunity to target media platform to manage the media, should be able to live with dignity. Tencent in March this year in terms of content platform will be major moves, and hope that through a series of nurturing plans to rebuild the media ecosystem.
7, personalization is the next important competitive factors
News aggregation, personalization, and infinitely refreshing, meet professional reading from socialization to the physiology of recreational reading needs. Described later in this sentence is my personal experience. Lots of information such as people′s daily, Xinhua News Agency, client client-oriented media, which is standard, but these people′s reading, is already a professional, not a standard average user behavior.
We must remind ourselves, not because they are Internet, news people, their mentality is derived, to judge the user′s State of mind. Ordinary users think of news as entertainment.
Today′s top story with traditional news client is operating, so far dominated by machines recommended reading efficiency a higher and more able to adapt to the individual needs of some readers. There is no doubt that this will be the future of news and information in the client′s direction. In fact, existing clients are already being followed up, to alter the client either in the original, or development of new products. This will be a main battleground of the future competition.
Tencent in human editors in the future operation of the press will also strengthen the capacity of personalized recommendation. Tencent news client is already the industry leader continued to firm after its status. Current company news to create the "Daily Express" clients are similar to today′s headlines, and mainly in the "Daily Express" for this competition.
News 8, robots can replace many city newspaper reporter
In the future, City newspaper reporter now do the 90% work, can be replaced by a robot. Robot news is not difficult, Europe and a number of off-the-shelf software, but need to do some keyword according to the particular situation of China′s control. Tencent is advancing the development of robot news, but business is small, mainly followed the industry trend.
Currently writing is only used for stock market information and earnings, by sports publishing refresh data information, weather forecast, etc. Future prospects will be extended to most of the newsletters categories, the message class of the writing, there′s nothing sensitive news, traffic information, pricing information, film developing information, press conferences, launches and other areas within the industry.
Early decline of print, Internet is a driving force, and in the age of the mobile Internet, the print comprehensive self give up, many newspapers edited excerpt from the network, reporters don′t have to go to the site now runs most of the Internet media. If I am a Print Manager, first newspapers what to do or how to do it, do not use special Internet style Web design addition, can′t print media production to production network, at present two, one is the depth of the investigation, one final comment, but newspapers gave these up. Fast track approach of newsprint media is far from the Internet fast.
9, video news is the trend
Content itself is no longer what subversive things appeared, the content will change with the development of technology, once you have the new technology, the content will change their mode of production and forms. Maybe next generation video content will rule the mobile terminal.
Video news is a hot trend, the layout in this direction, but currently is first started in the industry, the pattern is not clear, and there is no clear leader in Tencent a little more in front of the press.
Video news generally, there are two types, one is broadcast on-demand, requires rapid response; one is to meet individual reading, fun style, dominated by UGC. Current video news market has been well conceived, and can read a long time intensive users. The abundance and growth of video in the future something changes, bottlenecks are mainly video production technology now also failed to keep up.
VR there is conceptual in nature, various gimmicks to attract users, and hype the concept note is in order to seize the future outlet, now just do the test. I had a feeling VR future market will be very large, but the technology is still in the early stages of development, as well as mobile′s early development.
After attracting 00 10, to create the news remains troubling
In terms of news to what kind of products to address 00 has been one of our problems. Tencent news related products are still hatching, there is no clear product prototype. 00 after leading product is now beep-beep this barrage site, but beep beep is a theater instead of watching the news to the core. 00 on news how to build a product of interest is a difficult industry, because this group seems not interested in news.
QQ is accompanied by a lot of advantages after the growth, became a growing memories of this group, also will not abandon when I grow up. -We will now be the minimum age for children of the next generation of Internet user groups into the age of 6, the systematic use of the Internet-what products they have grown up with? not at home and abroad, but someone must try and develop this kind of thing.
If you are competent to do this one, could be considered less, consider what′s next generation Internet? technology is what? what new products is? and then see how the graft, the reverse operation.
腾讯网总编：报纸将死，多数媒体人将在2017到2018年下岗 - 报纸,媒体,机器人 - IT资讯
2月6日是腾讯新年放假的第一天，腾讯网总编辑王永治本来打算好好睡个懒觉，然而台湾凌晨发生的地震却让他不得不早起协调工作，而这早已是他习惯了的工作常态。在王永治看来，互联网有自我淘汰和迭代的本能，互联网人始终处于自我焦虑状态，有自我危机感，怕被行业颠覆，怕被用户抛弃。一直处于奔跑状态的王永治如何看待未来媒体的发展趋势呢？刺猬君特在新春佳节对王永治进行了专访，为大家分享他关于未来媒体发展的10点预测。
1、报纸除了倒闭没有别的出路
2015年有报告称“纸媒断崖式下跌”，我的判断是，到2018年很可能有三分之二以上的纸媒将会“关停并转”，这里的纸媒主要是指纸质媒体的形态。
报纸除了倒闭没有别的出路，无论现在官方如何鼓励新旧媒体融合，传统媒体有多么的信心爆棚、多么的澎湃、多么的有新闻理想。
不是新媒体搞死了旧媒体，而是用户放弃了纸媒，转移到了新媒体。纸质这种介质已经落后了，年轻一代已经基本不使用了，因为阅读和携带都不方便。有些中老年用户还喜欢纸媒，但是太小众了，就像有人喜欢用手写字而不喜欢在电脑上敲字，但是你能明显感觉到钢笔的使用已经越来越贵族化，多数人只是将钢笔作为签字笔使用。
有人认为纸媒未来会向精品化奢侈化方向发展，但在我看来这只是一厢情愿的观点。简单来说，京剧目前算是够精品化和奢侈化了，但已经发展到很少人听了。纸媒走精品化奢侈化路线恐怕只是一种赌气和调侃式的说法，因为靠这个是没法生存的，把纸媒做成纪念品没什么问题，但这没法养活一个报社。
纸媒未来可能会以刊号和品牌的方式存在，但具体存在形式还不可知。目前可知的是纸媒与各大平台进行合作，成为各大平台的内容供应方，类似于新闻类的专栏作家。
2、新旧媒体不可能融合
传播媒介的终端更替不可能逆转。从报纸、广播、电视，再到互联网和移动互联网，前三种是叠加的关系，可以共生，但网络媒体的出现是对前三种的“溶合”，有网络媒体的活路就没有传统媒体的活路。
旧媒体不可能活。纸媒是赶马车的，网媒是开飞机的。赶马车的可以学开汽车和开火车，但要学开飞机几乎不可能。过去式不可能超越现在式，现在式更不可能追上未来式。
新旧媒体的融合是“假婚姻”。新旧媒体是水与油的关系，不可能融合。现在的合作是官方给的政策和框架下必须做的命题作文，大家心知肚明，但有的人还以为有可能性。我到目前为止看到的最清醒的人是浙江日报的老总，他有过一个金字塔理论，最底层是面向民生服务类，让互联网做;中间是各种专栏自媒体，鼓励媒体人来自由发挥能力;金字塔尖儿保留纸媒不变，遵循党政路线，牢牢站在最高位上。
3、纸媒转型做独立APP的时机已经过去
2015年出现了很多新闻资讯类APP，但我认为纸媒转型做独立APP时机已经过去了。普通用户装一两个新闻资讯类的APP就够了，新闻资讯类APP的市场已经被门户覆盖，纸媒已经没有机会和市场了。如果微信将来真像张小龙说的推出应用号，就相当于打造了轻量的APP平台，对传统媒体而言，现有的独立APP就不用做了，只做应用号就够了。
此外，纸媒的技术也跟不上。技术是网媒的第一驱动力，互联网上任何一个功能的实现全部依赖于技术的先导性。互联网的产品往往是依托于天才型人物的天才性设想，在互联网上，群众的智慧是没用的，一个天才决定了一个公司的生与死，用一个天才比用一万个普通人都要值钱。
纸媒几乎是唯一只靠内容生产就能存活下来的媒体。几乎所有纸媒都没有高水平的技术总监，也没有充足的技术投入，可见实现了自我阉割。传统媒体都快死光了，好多报社的老总还没有认识到，一个产品的技术总监的重要性在哪里，这是一个体制的悖论。
当然，我们鼓励纸媒在APP方面做尝试，但究竟能支撑多久不可知，我个人并不是很看好。
4、多数媒体人将在2017到2018年下岗
为什么报纸会死掉?单就内容来说，是纸媒人到了知识、思维、技能的天花板。现在整个媒体行业有25万个从业者，而他们对互联网而言几乎没有什么核心生产力，命运只有一个死。
25万从业者多数将在2017到2018年下岗，原因是产业和技能的过剩和过时。有些媒体人转型做媒体公关，但并没有那么多媒体公关的岗位，也不需要那么多公关。整体来说，从业者在现有的技能下，未来是找不到工作的。
报纸的人常常跟我说，“老王，我们现在日子不好过了，你那儿有没有岗位或者事情让我帮你去管一管，做点策划之类的。我现在年纪大，不想在一线做，给我点轻松的职位”。我一听这话，立马当机立断的拒绝，因为互联网现在不需要这种所谓的高级管理人才，要的是干活的人，不管年龄大小。
5、泛媒体人永生
泛媒体人永生。两微一端瓦解了机构生产力，释放了个人生产力。想要做媒体人的，只要不空喊新闻理想，将技能锻炼到位，实现理想的空间还是有的。目前以腾讯新闻和今日头条为代表的网媒正在重建媒体生态，最大特点就是可以反哺媒体个人。媒体人作为生产者，只要提供新闻事实，是能够依托我们的平台生存的。
众包早就存在于业内各家的新闻生产中，并且规模会越来越大。随着平台能力的扩大，媒体生态的重建就是将来会有大量的机构和个人围绕大平台生产内容。
人类永远需要真相，政府永远需要监督，对真相的逼问和挖掘永远需要专业人士。自媒体越来越多，各种声音非常嘈杂，但一锤定音的时候永远需要专业人士。在这一方面媒体人具有优势，因为现在的专业媒体人越来越少。屠呦呦拿诺奖后，全国媒体都没能做到第一手的专访，如果谁能做到专访，内容一定很值钱，但能否做得到拼的还是记者的个人专业能力与突破性。
6、平台反哺创作者将重建媒体生态
用流量和收入反哺媒体精英和精英媒体将是全行业的策略。预计2016年整个资讯类移动终端全年变现额将超过100亿，拿出20%反哺机构媒体和自媒体，将是20亿，若分摊到1万人，每人将有20万，分摊给100家机构，每家则是2000万。
只要媒体人有能力，平台方愿意拿出重金来投入。2015腾讯传媒奖年度记者获得者王和岩就拿到了10万元的奖金。如果足够优秀，类似10万的记者我们可以签上100个，一年投入一千万元，只要他们一年拿出一篇价值10万元的报道，我相信这对于任何媒体都是一种成就。但反过来看，全国是否能找到100个王和岩这样的记者才是问题。
未来各大平台反哺的量会很大，媒体人抓住机会瞄准媒体平台好好经营自媒体，应该可以活得比较有尊严。腾讯今年3月在内容平台方面会有大动作，希望通过一系列反哺计划来重建媒体生态。
7、个性化推荐是未来重要竞争点
新闻聚合、个性化推荐和无限刷新，满足用户从社会化职业阅读到生理化休闲阅读的需求。这句话后面的描述是我个人的体会。人民日报、新华社客户端等大量新闻客户端都是面向媒体人的，其定位很标准，但这些人的阅读，已经是职业化的状态了，不是一种标准的普通用户的行为。
我们一定要提醒自己，不要因为自己是互联网人、新闻人，就拿自己的心态推导、判断用户的心态。普通用户基本把新闻当做消遣娱乐来看。
今日头条跟传统新闻客户端是两种操作思路，目前来看以机器推荐为主的客户端阅读效率更高，也更能适应部分读者的个性化需求。毫无疑问这将是未来新闻资讯客户端的发展方向。事实上现有的客户端都已经在跟进，要么在原有的客户端里进行改造，要么研发新的产品。这将是未来业内竞争的一个主战场。
腾讯新闻未来在人工编辑运营的同时也会加强个性化推荐的能力。腾讯新闻客户端目前已经是业内老大，以后继续稳固其地位即可。目前腾讯新闻打造的“天天快报”客户端与今日头条比较相似，未来也主要以“天天快报”进行这方面的市场竞争。
8、机器人新闻可取代很多都市报记者
在未来，目前都市报记者干的90%的活儿，都可以用机器人替代。机器人新闻并不难，欧美已经有很多现成的软件，只是需要根据中国的特殊情况做一些关键词的管制。腾讯正在推进机器人新闻的发展，但是业务量不大，主要是跟着行业趋势走。
目前机器人写作只用于股市信息和财报发布，只用刷新数据信息的体育赛报的发布、天气预报等。未来的前景是将其推广到多数简讯类的、消息类的写作，没有什么敏感性的民生新闻、路况信息、物价信息、影视剧发布信息、新闻发布会、行业内的发布会等领域。
早期纸媒的下滑，互联网是一个推手，而在移动互联网时代，则是纸媒整体的自我放弃，很多纸媒让编辑从网络上摘抄，记者不用去现场，现在跑现场的大都是互联网媒体。如果我是纸媒的老总，首先报纸版面该怎么做还怎么做，不要用特别网络范儿的网页设计;另外，纸媒要生产网络媒体生产不了的内容，目前来说就两块，一个是深度调查，一个是一锤定音式的评论，然而纸媒把这些放弃了。做短平快的新闻纸媒远远没有互联网快。
9、视频新闻是大势所趋
内容本身不可能再有什么颠覆性的东西出现，内容会随着技术的发展而改变，有了新技术之后，内容会跟着改变自己的生产方式和形态。或许下一代统治移动终端的将是视频类内容。
视频新闻是一个大热的趋势，各家都在向这个方向布局，只是业内目前都是刚开始做，格局还不清晰，相对而言还没有明显的领头羊，腾讯新闻相对更靠前一点。
视频新闻大致有两种类型，一种是直播点播式，需要快速反应；一种是满足个性化阅读，风格轻松好玩，以UGC为主。目前视频新闻的市场已经孕育得比较好了，而且在阅读时长方面可以大量占用用户的时间。视频的丰富度和成长在未来会有新的变化，现在的瓶颈主要是视频制作的技术还跟不上。
VR目前还只是概念性的，各家以噱头吸引用户，炒作概念注意是为了抢占未来的风口，目前只是做试验。我预感VR未来的市场会非常大，但相关技术还在发展初期，就像大哥大的早期发展一样。
10、打造吸引00后的新闻产品仍是行业困扰
在新闻资讯方面以什么样的产品来应对00后一直是我们的困扰。腾讯新闻的相关产品仍在孵化当中，目前还没有一个明确的产品雏形。现在面向00后比较领先的产品是哔哩哔哩这种弹幕式网站，但哔哩哔哩是以看剧而非看新闻为核心。如何打造一款让00后对新闻资讯感兴趣的产品是全行业的一个难点，因为这个群体好像对新闻资讯不太感兴趣。
QQ的优势就是伴随了很多90后的成长，成为这个群体的一个成长记忆，长大以后还不会抛弃。那么下一代少儿——我们现在将最低龄的互联网用户群体压缩到了6岁，能够系统地运用互联网——有什么产品能够伴随他们成长?目前国内外还看不到，但一定有人在尝试和研发这种东西。
如果有志做这一块，内容可以考虑得少一些，要考虑下一代互联网是什么东西?新技术是什么东西?新产品是什么东西?然后再来看内容怎么嫁接，反向操作。