China is the world′s economic stabilizer
At the "China Development Forum 2016" Economic Summit, all guests gathered in one place, the pulse of the world economy and China′s economy. Participants believe that China′s economic transformation over the past 5 years has been launched, notably on the contribution of consumption to economic growth is improving markedly, China′s economic transformation has a major impact on the global and the significance for the world economy is stabilizing agent, rather than risk-
Beijing in March, warm light. On March 19, the "China Development Forum 2016" Economic Summit was held in Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. All guests gathered in one place, the pulse of the world and China′s economy.
The world economy needs structural reform
"Reform some of the low-lying fruit has been harvested, the world economy needs deep structural reforms. "Suma·chakelabadi, President of the European Bank for reconstruction and development said the participants reached a consensus:" the world economy through structural reforms. "
The global economy is still in a deep adjustment phase, the shadow of the international financial crisis has not yet dispersed, some countries have taken unprecedented monetary easing, but the world is still in a dilemma of low growth, a number of top international experts and scholars with "new mediocre" to describe the current ailing global economy. Suma·chakelabadi said that the European Bank for reconstruction and development and the World Bank made a survey, shows that global reform lagged behind income growth in some countries, reform measures is on the decline in many countries, and at the political level, populist in the head.
"The world economy is under way. "The United States Colombia University Professor and winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics Joseph Stiglitz said the slowdown in the improvement of productivity in many countries, is the crux of the problem have not been enough to boost global demand. Strengthening global cooperation, boost overall demand will be restoring the world′s economic balance of an antidote. "Increase global aggregate demand, there are a lot of tools. "He thinks the market has lost its sense of direction, no way at their own speed to fix, need to do a series of institutional arrangements and policy adjustments.
World Bank Vice President yingzhuohua also believes that the effectiveness of monetary policy, less and less, the world must make structural reforms. Structural reforms can high-speed economic growth to return to the path of growth, financial system reform, the rule of law, in particular the protection of property rights, open markets, you can increase the support to economic growth, productivity, and enhance competition in the market. "Of course, very difficult to implement structural reform, new reforms muscles need exercise. "The British Zhuo Hua said.
Structural reforms of the common challenges facing the world, and structural reform on the supply side, China made more compelling.
Wang yiming, Deputy Director of development research center of the State Council said that by the end of 2015, China already has 10 provincial-level administrative units per capita GDP reached US $ 10,000, the total population of nearly 500 million. For some time, the Chinese economy has undergone profound adjustments, the world of China′s economic slowdown. But in the past 5 years, China′s economy grew 7.8%. If you do a comparison, deceleration in China, Japan, and Korea to be more conciliatory. China′s economic transformation over the past 5 years has been launched, notably on the contribution of consumption to economic growth is improving markedly, in 2015, the contribution rate of up to 66.4%. Proportion of the service industry are significantly improved, 2015 services proportion of GDP than secondary industry 10%, 50.5% per cent of gross domestic product. China is also the world of the Internet and mobile Internet users than any other country, sales of goods and services on the Internet accounted for 11% of the world. Urbanization in China are advancing rapidly, the resident population of the urbanization rate is over 56%.
"Economic history of China′s economic restructuring can be said to be the world′s largest economies in transition, so it faces unprecedented challenges and pains, but China′s transformation on the world to have a significant impact and significance. "Wang yiming said.
In the case of global trade recession, China′s imports of us $ 1.68 trillion in 2015 in 2015, foreign direct investment reached $ 118 billion, there are over 120 million people traveling abroad outside the consumption of goods over $ 100 billion. Wang yiming, believes that China such changes have had a significant impact on the global economy, China′s accelerated transformation, will make an important contribution to the rebalancing of the world economy.
China′s Economic Outlook bright
2015 has experienced large fluctuations of RMB exchange rate, but it seems to Gao Yiya, Chairman of Bloomberg′s limited partnership, over the same period compared to the yen, euro volatility, fluctuations of the RMB is not surprising. Gao Yiya said currency fluctuations for many reasons, important reason is the global economic volatility during the period as a whole, in addition to China′s exchange rate policies to manage the floating exchange rate policy in transition, want to let the market play a greater role, which no doubt will increase uncertainty for some time.
Gao Yiya think, be included in the SDR currency basket of the renminbi was a milestone in China′s reform process, this decision reflects the management of the world economy took a step forward. For China, we must seize the opportunity, accelerate the reform process. "China already has made significant progress in reform and opening up of the capital market, the ′ Thirteen-Five ′ plan also indicates the direction of China, carrying out and implementing good ′ Thirteen-Five ′ plan would enhance the international market confidence in China. "Gao Yiya said.
An Sijie, UBS Chief Executive, said despite the slowdown in China′s economy than in the past, but China will still be able to in the next 15 years, doubling the total economic, it still a steady walk on the path to become the world′s largest economies, and the renminbi is also on the road to become an international currency, a more internationalized renminbi is good news for China and the world.
Wu Xiaoling, Vice Chairman of the NPC financial and Economic Committee believe that fundamentals of the Chinese economy is still good in the world, Beijing has seen the problem, face up to the problem, you can solve the problem. "We should enhance confidence in the Chinese economy and the Yuan. What is the risk? Risk is the uncertainty, is that there is a problem but not the problem. The Chinese Government now is to see the problem, face up to the problem, as long as we can gather consensus, to implement real reform measures proposed, China′s economy will have a good future. "Wu Xiaoling said.
Lately, people are more concerned about China′s financial risk is high. In this regard, the China Banking Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Wang Zhaoxing said, currently, prevention and control of financial risks are common challenges facing all countries in the world, for China, with interest rates more market-oriented, diversified finance, liquidity management more difficult is also increasing. Stock market, currency market volatility also increases the difficulty of risk control. But China′s financial risk is controllable and will not lead to systemic risk, not to trigger local global financial risks. "On the one hand, China′s economy is still in a deep process of adjustment and reform, China′s economy has a huge swing space, reform will glow with a new engine of growth and internal demand, on the other hand the reforms of the past few years, the banking industry has increased risks, risk mitigation."
The Bridgewater Fund Rui·daliou, founder and Chief Executive, said, the world economy′s productivity recovery just around the corner, because there are a number of disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, data and computing. Structural adjustment of China is doing is very admirable, "for the world economy, China is a stabilizing agent, not a risk."
The G20 should strengthen policy coordination
In 2016, the G20 Summit will be held in Hangzhou, China for the first time, but 2016 is still facing many uncertainties in the global economy. As a leading force in the global economy, the Group of 20 to coordinate macroeconomic policies and strengthen co-operation? As the host, China, what kind of role to play?
Participation of domestic and foreign guests agreed that the downward pressure on the global economy needs a G20 member countries enhance policy coordination, and agreed. Organization for economic cooperation and Development Secretary General Angel Gurria said, current policy composite does not produce the right results, the effect of monetary policy is limited, need more financial support, including structural reforms, "to have a strong sustainable and balanced development".
Joseph Stiglitz emphasized that the countries realize that their actions will have an impact on other countries, called spillovers or externalities. Either micro-or macro-economy, need to be well coordinated, the G20 will discuss is how to achieve such global decision-making. The G20 should build on the consensus to jointly promote sustainable and inclusive development, this is the duty-bound responsibility of all countries.
Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China as the Chair of the G20 Summit in 2016, with members of the G20 will be strengthened in macroeconomic policy coordination and communication on, forming an important consensus on the policy, global economic policy coordination and communication platform for the most important role. China will work with all members of the G20 to work together, help each other and formation of coping with the challenges of economic policy, consensus, and send a positive signal to the world, to promote strong, sustainable and balanced global economic development.
United States Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said before, the G20 is a very useful mechanism. "Look forward to China-led G20, and plays an increasingly important role, if you want to make the G20 a very effective mechanism, China and the two countries need to work together, work together, in order to inject vitality into the global economy. "Robert Rubin said.
(Editors: Pan Yi burn UN657)
2016-03-20 10:25:02
Integrated
中国是世界经济的稳定剂
在“中国发展高层论坛2016”经济峰会上，各国嘉宾汇聚一堂，把脉世界经济和中国经济。与会嘉宾认为，中国的经济转型在过去5年已经启动，突出表现在消费对经济增长的贡献正在明显提高，中国经济转型对全球具有重大的影响和意义，对于世界经济是稳定剂，而不是风险——
京城三月，暖意袭人。3月19日，“中国发展高层论坛2016”经济峰会在北京钓鱼台国宾馆召开。各国嘉宾汇聚一堂，把脉世界和中国经济。
世界经济需要结构性改革
“改革的一些低垂的果实已被收获，世界经济需要进行深度的结构性改革。”欧洲复兴开发银行总裁苏玛·查克拉巴蒂说出了与会嘉宾的一个共识：“世界经济面临结构性改革”。
全球经济仍然处在深刻调整阶段，国际金融危机的阴霾还未散去，一些国家采取史无前例的货币宽松政策，但全球依然处在低增长的困境之中，一些国际顶尖的专家学者用“新平庸”来形容当前萎靡的全球经济。苏玛·查克拉巴蒂表示，欧洲复兴开发银行和世界银行一起做了一个调查，表明全球相当一些国家的改革落后于收入的增长，很多国家改革的措施正在减弱，而在政治层面，民粹主义在抬头。
“世界经济正砥砺前行。”美国哥伦比亚大学教授、2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨表示，很多国家生产力的提升在放缓，最核心的问题是全球总的需求量没有获得足够提升。加强全球合作、提高总体需求将是恢复世界经济均衡的一剂良方。“提升全球总需求还有很多工具。”斯蒂格利茨认为，当前市场已经失去了方向感，没办法按照自己的速度来修复，需要做一系列的机制性的安排和政策的调整。
世界银行常务副行长英卓华也认为，货币政策的效用已越来越低，世界必须要进行结构性改革。结构改革可以使得经济增长重新回到中高速增长的轨道，金融系统的改革、法治建设，尤其是对产权的保护、开放市场等，可以增加对经济增长的支持，使得生产率提高，促进市场竞争。“当然，结构性改革实施起来非常困难，新的改革肌肉是需要锻炼的。”英卓华说。
全球面临结构性改革的共同挑战，使中国的供给侧结构性改革更加引人注目。
国务院发展研究中心副主任王一鸣表示，到2015年末，中国已经有10个省级行政单位人均国内生产总值达到了1万美元，人口总数近5亿。一段时间以来，中国经济经历了深刻调整，世界都在讨论中国经济的减速。但过去5年中国经济年均增长7.8%。如果做一个对比，中国的减速，比日本、韩国要更为缓和。中国的经济转型在过去5年已经启动，突出表现在消费对经济增长的贡献正在明显提高，2015年达到66.4%的贡献率。服务业的比重正在明显的提高，2015年服务业国内生产总值占比已经超过第二产业10个百分点，占国内生产总值的50.5%。中国也是全球互联网和移动互联网用户最多的国家，网络上商品和服务的销售额已经占全球的11%。中国城镇化也在迅速推进，常住人口城市化率已经超过56%。
“中国经济的转型可以说是世界经济史上规模最大的经济转型，所以它面临的挑战和阵痛前所未有，但中国的转型对全球具有重大的影响和意义。”王一鸣说。
在全球贸易萧条的情况下，中国的进口规模2015年达到了1.68万亿美元，2015年对外直接投资达到了1180亿美元，有超1.2亿人次出境旅游，境外商品消费超1000亿美元。王一鸣认为，中国的这种变化对全球经济产生了重要的影响，中国加快转型，将对世界经济的再平衡作出重要贡献。
中国经济前景光明
2015年人民币汇率经历了较大波动，但在彭博有限合伙企业董事长高逸雅看来，相比于日元、欧元的同期波动幅度，人民币的波动不足为奇。高逸雅表示，人民币波动的原因很多，重要的原因是整个时期全球经济也在波动，此外，中国的汇率政策正在向有管理的浮动汇率政策转型，希望让市场发挥更大的作用，这毫无疑问会在一段时间内增加不确定性。
高逸雅认为，人民币被纳入SDR货币篮子是中国改革进程中的一个里程碑，这一决定反映出世界经济管理方式向前迈进了一步。对于中国来说，要抓住这个机会，加快改革进程。“中国已经在资本市场改革和开放方面取得了重大进展，‘十三五’规划也指明了中国前进的方向，贯彻和实施好‘十三五’规划，将增强国际市场对中国的信心。”高逸雅说。
瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰表示，尽管中国经济增速比过去有所放缓，但是中国仍然能够在未来15年的时间里实现经济总量翻一番，它仍然稳步走在成为世界最大经济体的道路上，而人民币也正在通往成为国际化货币的道路之上，一个更加国际化的人民币对于中国和世界都是好消息。
全国人大财政经济委员会副主任委员吴晓灵认为，中国经济的基本面在全球依旧是比较好的，中国政府看到了问题症结，面对问题，就能解决问题。“我们应该增强对中国经济和人民币的信心。什么叫风险？风险是不确定性，是有问题存在而看不到问题。中国政府现在是看到了问题，面对问题，只要我们能够凝聚共识，把提出的改革措施真正落到实处，中国经济会有好的未来。”吴晓灵说。
最近一段时间，人们对于中国金融风险的关注度越来越高。对此，中国银监会副主席王兆星表示，当前，防控金融风险是世界各国面临的共同挑战，对中国来说，随着利率更加市场化、融资更加多元化，流动性管理的难度也在加大。股票市场、汇率市场的波动也加大了风险控制的难度。但中国的金融风险是可控的，不会引发系统性风险，更不会引发地区性的全球性的金融风险。“一方面，中国经济还在深刻的调整和改革过程当中，中国经济有巨大的回旋空间，改革会焕发出新的增长动力和内在需求；另一方面，在过去几年的改革当中，银行业也增强了抵御风险，化解风险的能力”。
桥水基金创始人、首席执行官瑞·达利欧表示，世界经济的生产效率复苏在即，因为有了一些颠覆性的技术，比如说像人工智能、大数据和超级计算等。中国正在做的结构调整非常令人赞赏，“中国对于世界经济是一个稳定剂，而不是一个风险”。
G20要加强政策协调
2016年，G20峰会将首次在中国杭州举办，但2016年的全球经济仍然面对诸多的不确定性。作为全球经济主导力量的二十国集团如何协调宏观经济政策和加强合作？中国作为东道主，可以发挥什么样的作用？
与会的国内外嘉宾们一致表示，应对全球经济下行压力需要G20成员国加强政策协调，并且达成一致。经济合作与发展组织秘书长古里亚表示，目前的政策组合没有产生应有的效果，货币政策效果有限，需要更多的财政政策支持，包括结构性改革，“要有一个强有力的可持续的平衡发展目标”。
约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨则强调，各国要意识到自己的行动都会对其他国家产生影响，即所谓的溢出效应或者说外部性。无论是微观还是宏观经济，都需要很好进行协调，G20要讨论的是如何实现这种全球决策。G20应在共识的基础上，共同推进可持续的包容性发展，这是所有国家责无旁贷的责任。
中国财政部副部长朱光耀表示，中国作为G20峰会2016年度的主席国，将加强同G20成员在宏观经济政策上的协调与沟通，形成重要的政策共识，发挥全球经济政策协调、沟通最重要的平台作用。中国将与全体G20成员同心协力、同舟共济，形成应对经济挑战的政策、共识，向全世界发出积极的信号，促进全球经济沿着强劲、可持续、平衡的轨道发展。
美国前财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾表示，G20是一个非常有益的机制。“期待中国引导G20，并扮演越来越重要的角色，如果要让G20成为一个非常有效的机制的话，中美两国需要共同努力、共同合作，为全球的经济注入活力。”罗伯特·鲁宾说。
(责任编辑：潘奕燃 UN657)
2016-03-20 10:25:02
综合